Long-Term Multigas Mitigation Strategies using MESSAGE

Transcription

1 Long-Term Multigas Mitigation Strategies using MESSAGE Shilpa Rao & Keywan Riahi IIASA EMF-21, December 2003

2 The MESSAGE Model Bottom-up systems-engineering model Includes 400 individual energy conversion and end-use technologies 11 World Regions Calculates feasible energy supply technology structure, which requires least cost investment and satisfies a given useful-energy demand 2/25

3 The Reference Energy System Energy Conversion Sector Extraction Treatment oil well coal mine gas well agroforestry Primary Sources oil coal gas sunlight biomass Conversion Technologies refinery power plant hydrogen plant synfuel plant Distribution Technologies Final Energy Pipeline grid /truck kerosene electricity grid/ truck gas grid/ on site hydrogen grid/truck synthetic fuel End-Use Technologies Energy Services aircraft, light bulb, furnace, air conditioner, oven, automobile, etc. 3/25

4 Methodology- I Full endogenization of energy related and most industrial emissions (CO2, CH4, N2O, SF6, CF4, HFC) Combination of various economic drivers used to develop the long-term path for non-energy emissions in the baseline Include: Total and Urban Population; Total GDP, Agricultural & Industrial GDP; Energy Consumption; Transportation Demand; Electric T&D Productivity improvements and decreasing emission factors were assumed for most of the sources 4/25

5 Methodology- II Bottom-up representation of mitigation technologies, wherever information available Endogenized energy feedback effects from non CO2 mitigation (capture of CH4 in coal mines, CH4 from landfills, etc.) Estimation of ancillary benefits for ALL gases MAC approach for CH4 emissions from rice & enteric fermentation; and N2O from soil 5/25

6 Long-Term Scenarios Baseline :B2-SRES Scenario Mitigation Scenario (CO2 only) Mitigation Scenario (Multigas) 6/25

7 Reference Scenario B2 scenario (based on IPCC SRES) Population (billion) (x2) GDP (trillion $1990) (x8) Primary Energy (EJ) (x3) CO 2 Emissions (GtC) (x2) Atmos. CO 2 Conc. ppmv (x1.5) 7/25

8 Baseline Emissions GTCE HFC-134 CF4 SF6 N2O CH4 CO2 8/25

9 Sources of Emissions CO2: fossil fuels; cement and gas flaring CH4: fossil fuel extraction, distribution and enduse; biomass; solid waste; manure management; enteric fermentation; rice cultivation N2O: fossil fuel; biomass; nitric and adipic acid industries; agricultural soil SF6: Electric GIS; Magnesium production CF4: Aluminum production; semiconductors HFCs: : Residential, commercial and mobile refrigeration and air-conditioning; insulation foams; other sources 9/25

10 Mitigation Scenario (CO 2 only) Identified a concentration constraint that is consistent with 4.5 W/m 2 global radiative forcing (since preindustrial) Only CO 2 emissions can be reduced to meet this constraint. (full spatial and temporal flexibility of reductions) 10/25

11 Mitigation Scenario (Multigas) Mitigation flexibility between all gases Scenario constrained to meet the Total Carbon Equivalent of the gases from the CO2 only scenario. Used 100-year GWPs for calculations 11/25

12 Cumulative CO2 Reduction ( , GTC) Carbon Capture Nuclear Biomass Fossil fuel switch Other Renewables 0 50 Multigas GTC 200 CO2-only Carbon Capture is the largest contributor to CO2 reduction. Nuclear energy dominates the shifts in the energy system. Biomass plays an important role in the latter half of the century when biomass scrubbers become important. 12/25

13 Cumulative CH4 Reduction ( MTCH4) Landfills Energy Rice Enteric Manure % Direct Gas Use Coal 7% Warm Climate Digesters % MTCH4 67% Heat Prdn Flaring 60% Oil & Gas Stat & Mobile Bottom-up methodology enables us to evaluate optimum and point source technology strategies for reductions Solid waste and Energy sectors offer a large range of mitigation options. Regional differences are accounted for- anaerobic digesters for manure management are significant in developing countries. 13/25

14 Cumulative N2O Reduction ( , 2100, MTN2O) Nitric Acid Soil Adipic Acid 0 20 High-temperature Catalysts 6% Thermal destruction 89% MTN2O % In the industrial sector, high efficiency options offer maximum potential for global abatement (in spite of higher costs). Reductions from agricultural soil are assumed to be limited based on EMF-MACs MACs. 14/25

15 Cumulative F-Gas F Reductions (GTCE) HFC SF6 CF4 0 Magnesium 60% Electric GIS 16% Aluminum Refrigeration & AC GTCE 47% Insulation foams HFCs from refrigeration and air-conditioning are a fast growing source of GHG emissions and offer considerable potential for reduction. Electrical switchgear (leak repair and recycling) is the most attractive source for mitigation of SF6. Baseline already accounts for worldwide decrease in CF4 from aluminum. Main mitigation option is improvement of process control systems. 15/25

16 Cumulative Emissions Reductions 100% ( ) 2100) Emissions reductions compared to the baseline (%) 80% 60% 40% 20% Multigas CO2-only 0% CO2 CH4 N2O CF4 SF6 HFC 16/25

17 Mitigation Scenario (CO2 only) Revised CO2 Concentration Limit MESSAGE (GHG emissions) MAGICC (forcing/temp change) Emissions for CO2, CH4, N2O, F-gases Initial CO2 concentrations (stabilization level) MAGICC 4.0, Model for Assessment of Greenhouse Gas Induced Climate Change, Wigley et al. 17/25

18 Total Radiative Forcing Baseline CO2-only Multigas / Global meanradiative forcing (W/m2)

19 Changes in Radiative Forcing CO2 only Multigas Others CO2 CH4 N2O F-GASES Others here includes forcing from tropospheric ozone, black carbon, sulfate and bio aerosols 19/25

20 Global Temperature Change (from 2000) Baseline CO2-only Multigas / Global mean temperature change (ºC) Uncertainty Range (Multigas Scenario)

21 Atmospheric Concentrations Baseline CO2-only Multigas /25 Atm ospheric CO2 concentrations (ppm v) Atm ospheric N2O concentrations (ppbv) CO 2 CH 4 N 2 O Baseline CO2-only Multigas Baseline CO2-only Multigas Atm ospheric CH4 concentrations (ppbv)

22 Shadow Prices of CO 2 ($/TC) CO2-only Multigas $/TC /25

23 Multigas Mitigation Total GHG Emissions (MTCE) 8% % 36% Mitigation of CO2, CH4, N2O and other GHGS Agricultur Industry e & Others Energy The figure shows the various sources of GHGs and the mitigation achieved from the baseline in the multigas scenario. Industry(including solid waste) represents the top non-energy sector for potential mitigation. Agriculture is a larger source of GHG emissions but mitigation potential is limited. 23/25

24 Conclusions In a multigas strategy, the bulk of emission reductions still comes from CO2. Industry, waste and agriculture are important potential sources of non-co2 mitigation. Mitigation options in these sectors are technically and regionally diverse. Inclusion of non-co2 gases leads to lower costs. 24/25