Near-Term Mitigation in the Context of Long-Term Climate Goals: Lessons from the Integrated Assessment Community

Transcription

1 Near-Term Mitigation in the Context of Long-Term Climate Goals: Lessons from the Integrated Assessment Community Leon Clarke GTSP Technical Workshop College Park, Maryland October 1, 2013

2 The integrated assessment community has undertaken a wide range of international multi-model studies since AR4 Non- Non-Idealized International Technology Market Study Regions Deepest Goals Action Limitations Policies Other Notable Characteristics AME (Asian Modeling Exercise) Global and Asian Countries 450 ppmv CO2-e, High Price Path No No No Pioneered working groups to explore different elements of data; focused on Asian results. EMF 22: Global Global 450 ppmv CO2-e Fragmented No No First large, coordinated fragmented policy study. AgMIP (Agricultural Model Intercomparison Project) Global 450 ppmv CO2-e ** N/A N/A N/A An agricultural impacts study. EMF 27 (International) Global 450 ppmv CO2-e Limited Ambition Yes No Focused on intersection of technology and on limited international action. LIMITS: (Low Climate Impact Scenarios and the Implications of Required Tight Emission Control Strategies) Global 450 ppmv CO2-e (1) Variants of policy baselines through 2020 and 2030, with different burdensharing schemes moving forward. No Weak and strong policy baseline Exploring 2 degrees. AMPERE: (Assessment of Mitigation Pathways and Evaluation of the (1) Limited amibition to 2030 extrapolating Copenhagen; (2) fragmented action (EU only or EU and China leading), with and without ROW Trying to get a better handle on why there are such large differences in the Robustness of Mitigation Cost joining in 2030; (3) Carbon tax runs for Weak policy results of IA models. Estimates) - Global Global 450 ppmv CO2-e model diagnostics Yes baseline RoSE: (Roadmaps towards First coordinated sensitivity study on Sustainable Energy Futures) Global 450 ppmv CO2-e Limited Ambition No No fossil resources, population, and GDP. Looking at the economics of low ADAM Global 400 ppmv CO2 only No Yes No stabilization. Delays and fragmented action through Focused on the economics of RECIPE Global 410 ppmv CO2 only 2020 and 2030 Yes No decarbonizing the energy system. It is really these mul.- model studies that are defining the agenda and the providing the results.

3 These studies have addressed a number of topics relevant to negotiations. Non-Idealized International Technology Market Study! Scenarios Regions exploring Deepest 450 Goals ppmv Action CO2-e and similar. Limitations Policies Other Notable Characteristics Pioneered working groups to explore! Scenarios Global exploring and Asian 450 ppmv non-idealized CO2-e, international policy different structures elements of data; focused on AME (Asian Modeling Exercise) Countries High Price Path No No No Asian results. such as fragmented participation and limited near-term ambition. First large, coordinated fragmented policy EMF 22: Global Global 450 ppmv CO2-e Fragmented No No study. AgMIP (Agricultural! Scenarios Model exploring the implications of variations in technology Intercomparison Project) Global 450 ppmv CO2-e ** N/A N/A N/A An agricultural impacts study. cost, performance, and availability. EMF 27 (International) Global 450 ppmv CO2-e Limited Ambition Yes No and on limited international action. Strategies) Global 450 ppmv CO2-e Non- Focused on intersection of technology development LIMITS: (Low Climate Impact Scenarios and the Implications of (1) Variants of policy baselines through Weak and Required! Tight The Emission Control community has also focused 2020 and 2030, with on different other burden-elements strong of policy scenario sharing schemes moving forward. No baseline Exploring 2 degrees. (1) Limited amibition to 2030 extrapolating Copenhagen; (2)! A small but growing set of scenarios and research exploring the linkage AMPERE: (Assessment of Mitigation fragmented action (EU only or EU and Trying to get a better handle on why Pathways and Evaluation between of the mitigation and China other leading), societal with and without ROW priorities, there are such large differences in the Robustness of Mitigation Cost joining in 2030; (3) Carbon tax runs for Weak policy results of IA models. Estimates) - Global! An increasingly Global 450 sophisticated ppmv CO2-e model diagnostics treatment of the Yes role of baseline land use in RoSE: (Roadmaps towards First coordinated sensitivity study on mitigation! Scenarios exploring non-market approaches to mitigation. Sustainable Energy Futures) Global 450 ppmv CO2-e Limited Ambition No No fossil resources, population, and GDP. Looking at the economics of low ADAM Global 400 ppmv CO2 only No Yes No stabilization. Delays and fragmented action through Focused on the economics of! Emerging research on interactions between mitigation, impacts, and RECIPE Global 410 ppmv CO2 only 2020 and 2030 Yes No decarbonizing the energy system. adaptation.

4 (1) Many studies have produced 450 ppmv CO2-e scenarios CO2-e Concentration - Kyoto Gases Only (ppmv) ETSAP-TIAM FUND GTEM IMAGE-BC -NOBECS MiniCAM - Base MiniCAM - Lo Tech 450 CO2-e Overshoot: Full Participation (EMF 22, 2009) Concentrations GtCO2/yr CO 2 Emissions ETSAP-TIAM FUND GTEM IMAGE-BC -NOBECS MiniCAM - Base MiniCAM - Lo Tech From Clarke, L., J. Edmonds, V. Krey, R. Richels, S. Rose, M. Tavoni, 2009, International Climate Policy Architectures: Overview of the EMF 22 International Scenarios, Energy Economics, 31 S64 S81.

5 (1) Many studies have produced 450 ppmv CO2-e scenarios CO2-e Concentration - Kyoto Gases Only (ppmv) ETSAP-TIAM FUND GTEM IMAGE-BC -NOBECS MiniCAM - Base MiniCAM - Lo Tech 450 CO2-e Overshoot: Full Participation (EMF 22, 2009) Concentrations (2) 450 ppmv CO2-e has often been used as a proxy 20 for a 2 o C goal but that makes less sense than 10 before GtCO2/yr CO 2 Emissions ETSAP-TIAM FUND GTEM IMAGE-BC -NOBECS MiniCAM - Base MiniCAM - Lo Tech From Clarke, L., J. Edmonds, V. Krey, R. Richels, S. Rose, M. Tavoni, 2009, International Climate Policy Architectures: Overview of the EMF 22 International Scenarios, Energy Economics, 31 S64 S81.

6 (1) Many studies have produced 450 ppmv CO2-e scenarios CO2-e Concentration - Kyoto Gases Only (ppmv) ETSAP-TIAM FUND GTEM IMAGE-BC -NOBECS MiniCAM - Base MiniCAM - Lo Tech 450 CO2-e Overshoot: Full Participation (EMF 22, 2009) (3) For practical Concentrations CO 2 Emissions 40purposes, meeting a 450 ppmv CO2-e in the future involves 30 concentration overshoot GtCO2/yr (4) 450 ppmv CO2-e 0 requires very low or negative emissions -10 beyond mid-century ETSAP-TIAM FUND GTEM IMAGE-BC -NOBECS MiniCAM - Base MiniCAM - Lo Tech From Clarke, L., J. Edmonds, V. Krey, R. Richels, S. Rose, M. Tavoni, 2009, International Climate Policy Architectures: Overview of the EMF 22 International Scenarios, Energy Economics, 31 S64 S81.

7 (5) Emissions mitigation is a risk management strategy in the context of temperature goals GMS Temperature Increase ( o C) Overshoot 450 ppmv CO 2 -e, Full Participation Assuming 3 o C climate sensitivity Less ambitious near-term goals lead to higher chances of exceeding 2 o C IMAGE-BECS -NoBECS MiniCAM-LoTech MiniCAM-Base IPCC AR4 Peak CO2-e Concentrations (Total Forcing) [ppmv] IMAGE-BECS -NoBECS MiniCAM-LoTech MiniCAM-Base 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Probability of Staying Below 2 C GMS Temperature Change ( ) From Krey, V. and K. Riahi, 2009, Implications of delayed participation and technology failure for the feasibility, costs, and likelihood of staying below temperature targets Greenhouse gas mitigation scenarios for the 21st century, Energy Economics, 31 S94-S106.

8 In the context of current negotiations, key insights involve the interplay between nearterm action and longer-term dynamics Non- Non-Idealized International Technology Market Study Regions Deepest Goals Action Limitations Policies Other Notable Characteristics Global and Asian AME (Asian Modeling Exercise) Countries LIMITS 450 ppmv CO2-e, and AMPERE both High Price Path No No No EMF 22: Global Global 450 ppmv CO2-e Fragmented No No AgMIP (Agricultural Model explore the implications of limited near-term action in the context of long-term goals. Pioneered working groups to explore different elements of data; focused on Asian results. First large, coordinated fragmented policy study. Intercomparison Project) Global 450 ppmv CO2-e ** N/A N/A N/A An agricultural impacts study. Focused on intersection of technology EMF 27 (International) Global 450 ppmv CO2-e Limited Ambition Yes No and on limited international action. LIMITS: (Low Climate Impact Scenarios and the Implications of (1) Variants of policy baselines through Weak and Required Tight Emission Control 2020 and 2030, with different burdensharing strong policy Strategies) Global 450 ppmv CO2-e schemes moving forward. No baseline Exploring 2 degrees. (1) Limited amibition to 2030 extrapolating Copenhagen; (2) AMPERE: (Assessment of Mitigation fragmented action (EU only or EU and Trying to get a better handle on why Pathways and Evaluation of the China leading), with and without ROW there are such large differences in the Robustness of Mitigation Cost joining in 2030; (3) Carbon tax runs for Weak policy results of IA models. Estimates) - Global Global 450 ppmv CO2-e model diagnostics Yes baseline RoSE: (Roadmaps towards First coordinated sensitivity study on Sustainable Energy Futures) Global 450 ppmv CO2-e Limited Ambition No No fossil resources, population, and GDP. Looking at the economics of low ADAM Global 400 ppmv CO2 only No Yes No stabilization. Delays and fragmented action through Focused on the economics of RECIPE Global 410 ppmv CO2 only 2020 and 2030 Yes No decarbonizing the energy system.

9 Riahi et al (AMPERE WP2) World GHG emissions Baselines GHG emissions (GtCO2 equiv.) Emissions GAP (eg UNEP 2010, 2011, 2012) Optimal paths to 450 ppm

10 Riahi et al (AMPERE WP2) World GHG emissions GHG emissions (GtCO2 equiv.) High Low Baselines Extrapolation of UNFCCC country pledges to 2030 (den Elzen, 2012) Optimal paths to 450 ppm

11 Riahi et al (AMPERE WP2) World GHG emissions GHG emissions (GtCO2 equiv.) Near-Term Actions AIM-Enduse DNE21 GCAM IMAGE MERGE-ETL REMIND WITCH Baseline High 2030 Low 2030 Optimal

12 Riahi et al (AMPERE WP2) World GHG emissions GHG emissions (GtCO2 equiv.) Near-Term Actions Medium-Term Transition AIM-Enduse DNE21 GCAM IMAGE MERGE-ETL REMIND WITCH Baseline High 2030 Low 2030 Optimal

13 Riahi et al (AMPERE WP2) World GHG emissions GHG emissions (GtCO2 equiv.) Near-Term Actions Medium-Term Transition AIM-Enduse DNE21 GCAM IMAGE MERGE-ETL REMIND WITCH Baseline High 2030 Low 2030 Optimal Long-term reductions

14 World GHG emissions GHG emissions (GtCO2 equiv.) Limited short-term ambition (2030) AIM-Enduse DNE21 GCAM IMAGE MERGE-ETL REMIND WITCH Baseline High 2030 Low 2030 Optimal More stringent policies in the long term Riahi et al (AMPERE WP2)

15 World GHG emissions GHG emissions (GtCO2 equiv.) Medium-Term Transition 2050 ranges (majority of scenarios)* AIM-Enduse DNE21 GCAM IMAGE MERGE-ETL REMIND WITCH Baseline High 2030 Low 2030 Optimal 20 Rapid catch up of delayed scenarios *focus on long-term GHG models Riahi et al (AMPERE WP2)

16 Emissions reduction rates (%/year) emissions declines emissions growth 30-year averages optimal low high GCAM IMACLIM IMAGE MERGE- ETL optimal low high POLES REMIND WITCH AIM- Enduse DNE21+ Historical distribution (countries ) % - 7.5% - 5.0% - 2.5% 0.0% 2.5% 5.0% 7.5% 10.0% Mean Annual CO 2 Emissions Growth Rate Relative to 2005 (%) Riahi et al (AMPERE WP2)

17 Emissions reduction rates (%/year) emissions declines emissions growth 30-year averages optimal low high GCAM IMACLIM IMAGE MERGE- ETL optimal low high POLES REMIND WITCH AIM- Enduse DNE21+ >4% Europe during WWI & WWII Historical distribution (countries ) % - 7.5% - 5.0% - 2.5% 0.0% 2.5% 5.0% 7.5% 10.0% Mean Annual CO 2 Emissions Growth Rate Relative to 2005 (%) Riahi et al (AMPERE WP2)

18 Emissions reduction rates (%/year) emissions declines emissions growth 30-year averages optimal low high GCAM IMACLIM IMAGE MERGE- ETL optimal low high POLES REMIND WITCH AIM- Enduse DNE21+ Collapse of the Soviet Union 2-4 % per year >4% Europe during WWI & WWII % - 7.5% - 5.0% - 2.5% 0.0% 2.5% 5.0% 7.5% 10.0% Mean Annual CO 2 Emissions Growth Rate Relative to 2005 (%) Riahi et al (AMPERE WP2)

19 Emissions reduction rates (%/year) emissions declines emissions growth 30-year averages optimal low high GCAM IMACLIM IMAGE MERGE- ETL optimal low high POLES REMIND WITCH AIM- Enduse DNE21+ Sweden and France after the oil crisis: 2-3 % per year >4% Europe during WWI & WWII % - 7.5% - 5.0% - 2.5% 0.0% 2.5% 5.0% 7.5% 10.0% Mean Annual CO 2 Emissions Growth Rate Relative to 2005 (%) Riahi et al (AMPERE WP2)

20 Emissions reduction rates (%/year) emissions declines emissions growth 30-year averages optimal low high GCAM IMACLIM IMAGE MERGE- ETL optimal low high POLES REMIND WITCH AIM- Enduse DNE21+ Delayed action will require to double this rate GLOBALLY! >4% Europe during WWI & WWII % - 7.5% - 5.0% - 2.5% 0.0% 2.5% 5.0% 7.5% 10.0% Mean Annual CO 2 Emissions Growth Rate Relative to 2005 (%) Riahi et al (AMPERE WP2)

21 Riahi et al (AMPERE WP2) 1.0 Optimal Low High 450_FullTech_OPT 450_FullTech_LST 450_FullTech_HST 2030 Emissions 0.8 REMIND WITCH Share of Primary Energy % GCAM IMAGE IMACLIM POLES AIM-Enduse DNE MERGE-ETL

22 How much will it cost to reduce emissions?! Under the most advantageous circumstances, most models can achieve policy costs over the century of a several percentage points in terms of relevant economic indicators such as consumption losses, GDP losses, or area under the MAC curve.! But there is a wide range (e.g., in the AMPERE study, preliminary results indicate a range of about 1%-14%).! Delays or limits on technology can both increase costs, and more so in combination. For example, in the AMPERE project, preliminary results indicate an increase in total cumulative macroeconomic costs of about 25%! Transitional costs are more affected by the near-term actions. Riahi et al (AMPERE WP2)

23 How achievable and comparable might national goals be? INDIA Reduc2on in Emissions Intensity in 2020 Rela2ve to 2005 From: Calvin, K., A. FawceC, K. Jiang, (2012), Comparing model results to na.onal climate policy goals: Results from the Asia modeling exercise, Energy Economics, 34: S306- S315

24 How achievable and comparable might national goals be? EUROPEAN UNION Emissions in 2020 Rela2ve to 1990 From: Calvin, K., A. FawceC, K. Jiang, (2012), Comparing model results to na.onal climate policy goals: Results from the Asia modeling exercise, Energy Economics, 34: S306- S315

25 Other relevant topics addressed by integrated assessment research! Implications of limited technology portfolios! Linkages to other societal priorities (e.g., air pollution, energy security)! Insight into the viability and comparability of national goals! Investment patterns.! The effects of burden-sharing regimes.! The influence of technology limitations on the nature of transformation pathways.! Linkages between mitigation, impacts, and adaptation.! Sectoral transitions.! The role of land use in mitigation.! Industrial and land use leakage.

26 Thank You Leon Clarke s participation in the international integrated assessment community and the IPCC has been supported by! DOE s Office of Science, Integrated Assessment Research Program! The Environmental Protection Agency! The Global Technology Strategy Program