The Role of Technology in Future Energy Supply (WEO2011, ETP2010) C. Besson, Office of Chief Economist Brussels, November 15th 2011

Transcription

1 The Role of Technology in Future Energy Supply (WEO2011, ETP2010) C. Besson, Office of Chief Economist Brussels, November 15th 2011

2 Policies have a large impact on the long-term energy outlook Mtoe World primary energy demand by scenario Current Policies Scenario New Policies Scenario 6 C 3.5 C 450 Scenario 2 C In the New Policies Scenario, which takes account of enacted policies & declared intentions, demand increases by 39%, or 1.3% per year, between 2009 &

3 Fossil fuels are set to remain dominant, though their share decreases Mtoe World primary energy demand by fuel in the New Policies Scenario Oil Coal Gas Biomass Nuclear Other renewables Hydro Global primary energy demand grows by 40% between 2009 & 2035, with oil remaining the leading fuel though natural gas demand rises the most in absolute terms

4 China, China, China and India and Other Developping Countries Final consumption Incremental energy demand by sector & region in the New Policies Scenario, Power generation Other energy sectors Industry OECD China India Other non-oecd Transport Inter-regional (bunkers) Buildings Other sectors* Power generation accounts for over 50% of the increase in global primary demand to 2035, with industry, transport & buildings contributing most of the rest in roughly equal measure Mtoe

5 China becomes the market leader in low-carbon technologies China s share of cumulative global additions to 2035 for selected technologies 30% Capacity additions Passenger car sales 20% 10% 0% Solar PV Wind Nuclear Electric & plug-in hybrids n.b. WEO2010 Data Given the sheer scale of China s market, its push to expand the role of low-carbon energy technologies is poised to play a key role in driving down costs, to the benefit of all countries

6 Wind Solar PV Europe Shines in Solar-PV and Wind Solar PV and wind power capacity by region in the New Policies Scenario Other OECD Japan United States China India Other non-oecd European Union Japan Other OECD India Other non-oecd United States European Union China GW GW Over three-quarters of the growth in installed wind capacity and 70% of the growth in solar PV capacity occurs in the United States, European Union, China and India 2010 Capacity increase Capacity increase

7 Renewables come of age in power generation Share of world electricity generation by fuel in the New Policies Scenario TWh TWh TWh 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Coal Gas Oil Nuclear Biomass Hydro Wind Other Coal remains the largest source of electricity generation globally to 2035, growing by 45%, but its share of total generation drops from 41% to 33% in favour of gas & renewables

8 Planned policies will not halt the rise in CO 2 emissions Gt Energy-related CO 2 emissions by fuel in the New Policies Scenario, Gas Oil Coal Global emissions slow but still rise by 18% between 2009 & 2035 a trend consistent with a catastrophic rise in global temperature of around 3.5⁰C

9 Efficiency gains contribute most to emissions reductions but all technologies are needed Gt World energy-related CO 2 emissions abatement in the 450 Scenario relative to the New Policies Scenario Energy efficiency measures driven by strong policy action across all sectors account for 50% of the cumulative CO 2 abatement over the Outlook period New Policies Scenario 450 Scenario Abatement Efficiency 72% 44% Renewables 17% 21% Biofuels 2% 4% Nuclear 5% 9% CCS 3% 22% Total (Gt CO 2 )

10 The door to 2 C is closing, but will we be locked-in? Gt World energy-related CO 2 emissions in the Current Policies and 450 Scenarios and from locked-in infrastructure in 2010 and with delay C trajectory 2 C trajectory Delay until 2017 Delay until 2015 Emissions from existing infrastructure Without further action, by 2017 all CO 2 emissions permitted in the 450 Scenario will be locked-in by existing power plants, factories, buildings, etc.

11 Technology revolutions? Source: Nakicenovic (1986) WEO incorporates technology learning but not breakthroughs

12 How do we achieve an Energy Revolution? Technology roadmaps provide the answer OECD/IEA 2010

13 Ex: CSP costs and global output Competition for peak and mid-peak loads Competition for base load OECD/IEA 2010

14 Technology Platform Objectives Action 1. Catalyse technology collaboration initiatives 2. Share experience on bestpractice technologies and policies 3. Review process of the lowcarbon energy technology transition Outcome Technology strategy and roadmap implementation Efficient dissemination of best-practice technology, policy and tools analysis; body of expertise Identification of gaps, accelerated and prioritised action

15 OECD/IEA 2010

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17 ETP: the potential of new technologies Gt CO Baseline emissions 57 Gt BLUE Map emissions 14 Gt WEO ppmcase ETP2010 analysis CCS 19% Renewables 17% Nuclear 6% Power generation efficiency and fuel switching 5% End-use fuel switching 15% End-use fuel and electricity efficiency 38% OECD/IEA 2010

18 USD trillion ( ) Undiscounted 3% discount 10% discount Investment Fuel savings A low carbon future is cost effective Total Commercial Residential Transport Industry 20 Power distribution Power transmission Power generation Biomass and waste Natural gas Oil Coal OECD/IEA 2010 Even using a 10% discount rate, fuel savings in the BLUE Map scenario more than offset the additional investment required.

19 IEA Ministerial meeting October 2011 Chair s summary Participants highlighted the need to increase the share of our public spending that goes to RD&D in low-carbon energy technologies and to expand international RD&D efforts

20 bcm A Golden Age of Gas? World primary natural gas demand by scenario Current Policies Scenario New Policies Scenario Scenario In the New Policies Scenario, demand grows from 3.1 tcm in 2009 to 4.8 tcm in 2035 an increase of 55% or 1.7% per year

21 Gt CO 2 emissions drop, but only slightly CO 2 emissions in the GAS Scenario compared with the New Policies Scenario, Increase due to: Higher energy demand Less nuclear Less renewables Reduction due to: Substitution of coal & oil by gas 34.0 New Policies Scenario GAS Scenario CO 2 emissions are just 160 Mt lower than in the New Policies Scenario in Substitution of coal & oil by gas cuts emissions by 740 Mt, but this is largely offset by other effects

22 The Role of Technology in Future Energy Supply C. Besson, Office of Chief Ecnomist Brussels, November 15th 2011