Four Things to Know In Times of Resource Constraints. Mathis Wackernagel, Ph.D. Colle di Val d'elsa, 7 June 2010

Transcription

1 Four Things to Know In Times of Resource Constraints Mathis Wackernagel, Ph.D. Colle di Val d'elsa, 7 June 2010

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3 Biocapacity per person Ecological Footprint

4 4 things you need to know 1. Global Trends (with local impacts) 2. Link to Climate (2 scenarios) 3. National Trends 4.Fear your Eco-Deficit (or what s your country s Optimum Resource Consumption?)

5 Humanity s Ecological Footprint (1961 onwards)

6 Tragedy of the Commons (shrink & share) Political suicide

7 Tragedy of the Commons (shrink & share)

8 Tragedy of the Commons (shrink & share)

9 Tragedy of the Commons (shrink & share)

10 Tragedy of the Commons (shrink & share)

11 Tragedy of the Commons (shrink & share) The Comedy of Common Sense

12 EITHER: 350 ppm ~ 2 C Yes, but OR: 1700 ppm

13 Ecological Creditors and Ecological Debtors

14 Ecological Creditors and Ecological Debtors

15 Mathis life (1962 onwards) Annual deficit adds up to a global ecological debt

16 Mathis life UN s Most Moderate Scenario

17 2050 is being built today (as a trap or an opportunity) 30 Billion 2003 global hectares 10 Long-term waste

18 Biocapacity per person Ecological Footprint

19 Uganda Biocapacity per person Iran Ecological Footprint Biocapacity per person Ecological Footprint Ecological Footprint Biocapacity per person Switzerland The Ecological Footprint and biocapacity (per capita) of three countries from A country runs an ecological deficit if its Footprint exceeds what its ecosystems can renew. The deficit is made up through net-imports, net-carbon emissions to the global atmosphere, or local resource degradation.

20 Ecological Creditors and Ecological Debtors in Africa Ecological Footprint and Biocapacity PER CAPITA,

21 What do these graphs show? All 24 African countries are rapidly loosing per-capita biocapacity. Four (blue-shaded) countries have assets that allow them to have a net-import and to burn significant quantities of fossil fuel. Twelve (yellow-shaded) countries development is limited by their declining biocapacity, leading to SEVERE conflicts.

22 Ecological Creditors and Ecological Debtors in Europe Ecological Footprint and Biocapacity PER CAPITA, DE AT BE BY DK ES SK FR FI GR NL HU IT IR PO PT CZ UK RO RU RS CH SE UA

23 Kenya 1961-today

24 From nicety to necessity 4 Contributions

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27 Eyjafjallajökull Effect

28 350 ppm ~ 2 C 1700 ppm

29 Uganda Biocapacity per person Iran Ecological Footprint Biocapacity per person Ecological Footprint Ecological Footprint Biocapacity per person Switzerland The Ecological Footprint and biocapacity (per capita) of three countries from A country runs an ecological deficit if its Footprint exceeds what its ecosystems can renew. The deficit is made up through net-imports, net-carbon emissions to the global atmosphere, or local resource degradation.

30 Biocapacity Shrinking Ecological Credit Ecological Footprint Increasing Ecological and Social Instability

31 Kenya, today

32 Ecological Creditors and Ecological Debtors in Europe DE AT BE DK ES FR FI GR NL HU IT IR PO PT UK RO RU CH SE

33 Biocapacity per person Ecological Footprint

34 Why UAE?

35 How close are we today to attaining global sustainability? Collapse Conventional belief national biocapacity Sustainable path

36 From nicety to necessity Siena, Italy June 7-107

37 2.1 gha Footprint of Nations, 2005, per capita

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39 April 15th

40 April 16th

41 April 17th

42 The Eyjafjallajökull effect Today Safe Level April 15th April 16th April 17th April 18th April 19th

43 The Eyjafjallajökull effect Today Safe Level April 15th April 16th April 17th April 18th April 19th

44 The Eyjafjallajökull effect Today Safe Level April 15th April 16th April 17th April 18th April 19th

45 The Eyjafjallajökull effect Will we fly for tomorrow? Today? Safe Level April 15th April 16th April 17th April 18th April 19th

46 The Eyjafjallajökull effect Today? Safe Level? April 15th April 16th April 17th April 18th April 19th

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48 2.5 Ecological Footprint compared to country's biocapacity B business as usual H Hopenhagen O?? Optimum?? 0.5 India

49 Metabolism like a cow

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51 Biocapacity per person Ecological Footprint

52 UNITA formed Colonial War MPLA / FNLA Lisbon coup Civil war Ceasefire Soviet fall Current composition of resource demand Angola s Footprint profile provides a kind of cross-sectional representation of the nation s biocapacity demand for the period of record ( ). Periods of relative stability are followed by a distinct reduction in reported biocapacity demand.

53 PER CAPITA CONSUMPTION / RESOURCE EFFICIENCY = PER CAPITA ECOLOGICAL FOOTPRINT (DEMAND) Five Factors DIFFERENCE BETWEEN BIOLOGICAL DEMAND AND SUPPLY AREA x BIO- PRODUCTIVITY / POPULATION = PER CAPITA BIOCAPACITY (SUPPLY)

54 PIONEER COUNTRIES SO FAR Switzerland Japan United Arab Emirates Belgium Ecuador Luxembourg Finland EU

55 is being built today (as a trap or an opportunity) Billion 2003 global hectares 10 Long-term waste

56 WBCSD Vision Who s in? WBCSD Vision

57 What to do? Sustainability Wedges and an End to Overshoot (WBCSD) 15

58 Navigating the rapids of peak everything Winning together

59 Global Footprint Network: Strategy and Operating Model Our Goal: To secure lasting human well-being by establishing the Ecological Footprint as a prominent, globally accepted metric on par with Gross Domestic Product. Our Data: We continue to improve the science of Ecological Footprint accounting, making our methods more transparent and robust, and publishing key supporting resources so the tool can be used widely. Our Partners: We are working with a rapidly-expanding network of partners (now numbering more than 90) from the grassroots to national governments, to support innovation and visionary thinking as we work together toward a sustainable human future. Our Role: By convening and challenging key thought leaders and decision makers, we are sparking a global conversation about how ecological limits will shape our economic future. Together, we evaluate the options cities, countries and companies have for securing long-term well-being. Emerging from this ongoing conversation, Global Footprint Network anticipates a shift of private and public investments into building a sustainable future for all.

60 Initiatives and Campaigns: Earth Overshoot Day Earth Overshoot Day 2009 fell on September 25. This was the day in the year by which humanity, in net-terms, had used all the resources and services nature was able to regenerate in For the rest of the year, humanity was living beyond its ecological means. This line represents 100% of the Earth s regenerative capacity. In 2009, humanity used 40 percent more ecological services than the Earth renewed in that year.

61 Initiatives and Campaigns: Human Development Goal: For all to live fulfilling lives, within the means of our planet. Tools: Two leading indicators have identified how we can get there: - Ecological Footprint data tell us that, given the earth s current population and available biocapacity, an Ecological Footprint of less than 2.1 global hectares per person indicates that a country s resource demands globally replicable. - The United Nations Human Development Index (HDI) measures a country s average achievements in longevity, literacy and income. An HDI higher than 0.8 is considered high human development.

62 Mid-term goal: Ten-In-Ten Goal: In 2005, we set ourselves the goal of institutionalizing the Ecological Footprint in at least 10 key national governments by We are on track to surpassing our target. Currently, eight nations have adopted the Footprint in some capacity: Switzerland Wales and Scotland United Arab Emirates Japan Belgium Ecuador France Luxembourg The Ecological Footprint has been tested by: European Commission Ireland Germany Finland Canada

63 Our Advisory Council David T. Suzuki Wangari Maathai E.O. Wilson James Gustave Speth Daniel Pauly Oscar Arias Julia Marton-Lefèvre William Rees Ernst Ulrich von Weizsäcker Lester Brown M.S. Swaminathan Manfred Max-Neef Herman E. Daly Rhodri Morgan Emil Salim Norman Myers Fabio Feldmann Jorgen Randers Terry A Hearn Dominique Voynet Michael Meacher Karl-Henrik Robèrt Will Steffen Peter Raven Eric Garcetti

64 Global Footprint Network: Changing Humanity s Course We invite you to become part of our global effort to create a world where we can all live well, within the means of one planet. More on the accounting method: visit mathis@footprintnetwork.org call x 305 (Mathis Wackernagel) fax: Oakland, CA, USA Brussels, Belgium Zürich, Switzerland

65 What is the Ecological Footprint? The Ecological Footprint is a measurement and decision tool that computes how much land and water area a human population requires to produce the resources it consumes and to absorb its CO 2 emissions, using prevailing technology. CARBON footprint

66 Living Planet Report

67 Summary In this era of climate change and emerging resource constraints, a country that does not know how much biocapacity it has and how much it uses will not be able to operate effectively. Companies need to understand this context as well. Ecological Footprints track biocapacity nonspeculative accounting for countries, companies & projects. Global Footprint Network wants 10 (and then 100) nations to adopt this accounting approach like GDP or unemployment figures. Then countries will reduce their ecological deficit.

68 The Ecological Footprint CARBON footprint

69 World GDP in Trillion $ per year PAST FUTURE GDP

70 World GDP in Trillion $ per year 140 BAU PAST FUTURE G 40 GDP

71 World GDP in Trillion $ per year 140 BAU 120 PAST STERN FUTURE G 40 GDP

72 World GDP in Trillion $ per year 140 BAU 120 PAST STERN FUTURE G 40 GDP 20 COLLAPSE

73 World GDP in Trillion $ per year 140 BAU 120 PAST STERN FUTURE STABILISATION 60 ~ 600 tri $ 40 GDP 20 COLLAPSE