Managing Certainty and Uncertainty

Transcription

1 January 29, 2016 Managing Certainty and Uncertainty Incorporating Innovative Technology: Bridging the Gap Texas Association of Clean Water Agencies Art Umble, PhD, PE, BCEE Americas Wastewater Practice Leader

2 Outline The Case for Advancing Technology Stationarity: circular thinking Waste Reduction Resource Recovery Where Does Technology Fit? Technology Examples Supporting the Circular Economy Around Resource Recovery Managing the Realities of Getting There 2

3 Stationarity is no more!? Historically: Risk-based measures Predict Provide Preserve Probabilistic Models??? Going Forward: Uncertainty Estimate Adapt? Evaluate Modify Source: International Panel on Climate Change (2015) 3

4 Uncertainty is the New Normal July 2011 August 2014 Lake Oroville, CA Climate change impacts Water shortages/drought Catastrophic events Degradation of water quality Challenges Include: Reliability and redundancy limitations Population growth w/ reduced consumption Demand for lower-cost solutions No Time to React!! 4

5 Question Can innovative technology play a role in addressing uncertainty? 5

6 Global Demand for Phosphorus Million Tonnes 2007 Global Demand for Mineral P Phosphate fertilizers increases demand on fossil fuel energy for production Production increases in bioenergy and biofuel crops (5%/decade thru 2050) Phosphorus is finite (??) Source: World Economic Forum, 2011; Schroder, et al., 2010; PRI; USGS, 2008 China Morocco S. Africa USA Japan All others 7% 41% % 82% 24 24% Distribution in Food Production 2% 9% 7% of Phosphorus Use 82% 18 18% Fertilizer Animal Feed Food Additives Industrials US US China/Asia China/Asia Africa Africa All Others All Others 6

7 How much value is derived from resources utilized for human needs? Source: Adopted from: Growth Within: A Circular Economy Vision for a Competitive Europe McKinsey Center for Business and Environment (2015) 7

8 Valuing the Circular Economy Current Development Scenario Circular Economy Scenario Source: Growth Within: A circular Economy Vision for a Competitive Europe McKinsey Center for Business and Environment (2015) 8

9 Question What role does innovative technology play in addressing certainties of resource limits? 9

10 Technology is the Connector Drivers of Uncertainty Technology Solutions Drivers of Certainty 10

11 Changing the Paradigm: Disruptive Technology Raw Wastewater Preliminary Treatment Solids Treatment & Resource Recovery ENERGY FACTORY Biosolids Handling & Market Resources Tertiary Treatment NUTRIENT FACTORY Disinfection 30%, or more in efficiency gain with focus on waste reduction and recovery Primary Treatment WATER FACTORY Secondary Treatment Outfall Waste Streams Advanced Treatment Value Streams Receiving Water Body 11

12 Energy: Carbon Diversion Technology Carbon Diversion Contact Tank Aeration Basins Final Clarifier Anaerobic Digestion Credit: Evoqua Water Technologies, 2015 Captivator System Enhanced biogas production Reduced energy consumption Reduced capital cost 12

13 Energy: Carbon Diversion Technology Polymer + Metal Salt Grit removal + Primary Sludge Thickening + WAS Thickening Floatables Effluent Raw Influent Contact Tank DAF WAS Captivator System Credit: Evoqua Water Technologies, 2015 To Digestion COD removal = 30% - 50% TSS removal = 50% - 75% SOR = times > primary 13

14 Energy: Carbon Diversion Technology Agua Nueva Wastewater Reclamation Facility Tuscon, AZ Captivator Credit: Pima County, AZ (2015) 14

15 Energy: Carbon Diversion Technology Energy Comparison 30 MGD Plant used Aeration energy used Energy created from biogas Kilowatts created 600 used 700 created Conventional Plant 1 2 Plant with Carbon Diversion (Captivator ) Credit: Evoqua Water Technologies; Captivator Systems,

16 Energy: Carbon Diversion Technology Organic Harvester Credit: Clearcove Systems,

17 Energy: Carbon Diversion Technology Comparing Organic Harvester Performance to Conventional Primary Treatment Methane Yield Potential: Primary sludge versus Organic Harvester Sludge Methane Credit: Clearcove Systems (2015) 17

18 Energy: Membrane Aerated Bioreactor (MABR) Source: Peeters, J., et al., GE Water Technologies (2015) COTE Membrane Separation, Inc. (2015) 18

19 Energy: Membrane Aerated Biofilm Reactor (MABR) Cross-sectional view Longitudinal view Reinforcing Cord Hollow fiber Membrane Single Module Single Cassette Aeration Blower Zeelung Cassettes Bioreactor Fine Bubble Aeration 2 m Source: Peeters, J., et al., GE Water Technologies (2015) COTE Membrane Separation, Inc. (2015) 19

20 Energy: MABR for Neutrality Platform DO in suspended liquor, mg/l Oxygen flux (g/d/m2) OTE (%) Source: Peeters, J., et al., GE Water Technologies (2015) COTE Membrane Separation, Inc. (2015) 20

21 Energy & Nutrients: Aerobic Granular Sludge (AGS) AGS CAS Granulated Sludge Particles High MLSS 8 g/l No final clarifiers No chemical additions No RAS Aeration limited Low energy system Product recovery potential: Alginate-like polymers 21

22 Energy & Nutrients: Aerobic Granular Sludge AGS operates at 40% lower energy demand than parallel CAS 60% A/B Process TN eff = 7 mg/l TP eff = 1 mg/l 40% 43% above design AGS Source: Robertson, S., et al., IWA Water Century21 (2015) Increases settleability in the CAS train Increases biomass in CAS train Enables a higher hydraulic loading in CAS train Enhances overall bio-p in CAS train 22

23 Energy & Nutrients: Aerobic Granular Sludge TN Target = 7 mg/l Credit: Nereda (2012) 23

24 Energy & Nutrients: Aerobic Granular Sludge Credit: Nereda (2012) 24

25 Energy & Nutrients: Aerobic Granular Sludge - Economizes Treatment 75% reduction in footprint 30% reduction in energy 25% reduction in capital cost Credit: Nereda (2012) 25

26 Energy & Nutrients: Anammox Process 26

27 Energy & Nutrients: A/B-Stage Process 27

28 Nutrients: Algae Cultivation & Harvesting Secondary Effluent Mixture Seed Algae Return Photobioreactor Light Nutrient Recovery Incinerator CO 2 Algae Separation SAF DAF Membrane Source: CLEARAS, Inc., Missoula, MT, ABNR (2015) Clean Water Algae Harvest 28

29 Nutrients: Algae Cultivation & Harvesting Blend Tank Separation Process Harvest Tank Source: CLEARAS, Inc., Missoula, MT, ABNR (2015) 29

30 Nutrients: Algae Cultivation & Harvesting Source: CLEARAS, Inc., Missoula, MT, ABNR (2015) 30

31 Energy Recovery Alternative from Harvested Algae High Temperature ( C) High Pressure ( psi) SHORT Time Scale (minutes) Biocrude Upgrading ASTM-grade Diesel Harvested Algae HTL Process Skid Credit: Algae Systems, Inc. (2015) 31

32 Energy & Nutrients: Algae Cultivation & Harvesting Total solids Volatile solids Biocrude Methane Total 100% 100% Percent solids destruction 80% 60% 40% 20% Chemical energy recovered 80% 60% 40% 20% >40% Added Benefit 0% AD only AD with thermal hydrolysis AD with hydrothermal liquefaction 0% AD only AD with thermal hydrolysis AD with hydrothermal liquefaction Credit: Algae Systems, Inc. (2015) 32

33 Energy & Nutrients: Combining Benefits Primary BNR Final Settling UV Thickener P-Recovery Dewatering Dilution Secondary Digester Primary Digester Dewatered Cake 12-15% Heat (steam) Lystech Process Alkali (KOH) Class A Biosolids Storage Lystek Hydrolysate Credit: Lystek, Inc. (2015) 33

34 Energy: Recovery Methane production rate (LCH 4 /d) TWAS Lystek 1.0 TWAS + 4% Lystek Time, d Methane Yield (LCH 4 /L substrate ) Feed Source: Elbeshbishy, et al., (2014) Waste Management Journal 34 34

35 Growth Dynamic for Innovative Technology years Decline Number of Commercial Installations Innovators Early Adopters Early Majority Late Majority time 35

36 Market Adoption of Innovative Technologies Technology Innovators Early Adopters UV Disinfection Early Majority Total MBR Solids Pretreatment Struvite Harvesting HPOAS

37 Summary Stationarity is no more! Circular economy is the most sustainable alternative Technology must overlap and link both the uncertain and the certain drivers Most innovation today is focused on energy, nutrients and water resource recovery Innovation must be disruptive Technology adoption requires time and willingness to take risks Risks must be managed, not avoided 37

38 Thank you! GO Broncos!! 38

39 Advancing Technology to Market Maturity 39

40 Energy: Anaerobic MBR >85% COD removal >99% TSS removal TN and TP removals negligible Effluent COD/N & COD/P unfavorable for downstream BNR Lower sustainable flux: < 15 LMH Long SRT tcod Removal, % COD Removal Tradeoff: Increased biological activity across biofilm; but increased fouling time, hrs Adapted from: Smith, et al. Bioresource Technology 122 (2012) 40

41 Energy: Anaerobic MBR Staged Fluidized - MBR Biogas Capture PLC Biogas Capture Overflow Level Control Peristaltic Pump WAS Hollow fiber Membrane Fluidized GAC Peristaltic Pump Fluidized GAC Flow meter Permeate Tank Recirculation Pump Anaerobic Fluidized Bed Reactor Peristaltic Pump Recirculation Pump Source: Yoo, R., et al. Bioresource Technology 120 (2012); Kim, J., et al. ES&T, 45 (2011) INFLUENT FEED Anaerobic Fluidized Membrane Bioreactor 41

42 Energy: Anaerobic MBR 42

43 Energy & Nutrients: Algae Cultivation & Harvesting Continuous operation starting summer 2014 Monitoring across all conditions Ongoing physical and operational upgrades Demonstrated Performance Results > 95% N Reduction > 95% BOD Reduction > 98% P Reduction EROEI > 3 15 Phosphorus Removal Effluent conc Influent conc Concentration (mg/l) Jan 15-Feb 17-Mar 16-Apr 16-May Credit: Algae Systems, Inc. (2015) 43

44 Energy & Nutrients: Algae Cultivation & Harvesting CO 2 Solar Energy Wastewater Wastewater Treatment via Microalgae Cultivation Nutrient Recycle Algae Slurry Clean Water Hydrothermal Liquefaction & Hydrotreatment Drop-in Fuels Biochar (Air-capture or Flue CO2) Secondary treatment Photobioreactors Primary Treatment Solids treatment Source: McElroy, R., et al. WEFTEC (2014) 44

45 Energy: Carbon Diversion Technology Salesnes Filter The Salsnes Filter system performs solids separation, sludge thickening and dewatering of influent solids in one compact unit which removes >50% of influent Total Suspended Solids (TSS), >20% influent Biochemical Oxygen Demand (BOD) and produces a dry sludge. Salsnes SFK 6000 shown. 45

46 If opportunities to recovery resources are so attractive why aren t utilities and industries moving more quickly? Technologies are untapped Waste regulations treat waste as an environmental hazard Non-collusive collaboration Unpriced externalities Customs and habits 46

47 A Case History Zurich, Switzerland Technology Changed 3x Phase 1: Up to Population density increases - Cholera outbreaks - Human waste regarded as valuable Phase 4: Hydropower cuts assimilative capacity of receiving water - WWII halts initiatives to employ biological treatment technology Technology Modified 3x Phase 2: Phase 5: Urbanization calls for new wastewater bucketing system - Typhus outbreaks - Human waste still desirable but costs not recoverable and value is lost - De-industrialization, population decline, water conservation - Reduction in wastewater flow frees up treatment capacity - More area sewered & connected Phase 3: Key agents for change are physicians, not engineers - Environmental pollution now the main driver - Bucket system replaced with water-borne sewers - Loadings underestimated Source: Adapted from Neumann, M., et al., J. of Environmental Management, 151 (2015) Phase 6: Address energy efficiencies, resource recovery, micropollutants, climate change - Introduce new treatment technologies and centralization - Heat recovery from sewage proves unfavorable 47

48 Market Adoption of MBR Technology 48

49 An Alternative: Adaptive Planning & Design Resilience! Growth Maintenance of growth Re-organization Collapse Ecological system Source: Adapted from: Salingaros, N. (2015) 49

50 Implementing Technology Takes Time: How much is Appropriate? A: Decision to make investment B: Commissioning of asset C: Detection of inadequacy of asset A a --> bb Process Process B b --> C c C c --> aa Time, Time, years yrs Source: Adapted from Neumann, M., et al., J. of Environmental Management, 151 (2015) 50

51 Designing Resilient Systems Requires Innovative Management Models Operational Flexibility Managerial Flexibility Structural Flexibility Institutional Flexibility Source: Adapted from Neumann, M., et al., J. of Environmental Management, 151 (2015) 51

52 Nutrients: Beneficial Biosolids Reuse Dewatered Cake Lystek Hydrolysate Credit: Lystek, Inc. (2015) 52