Spain s renewable energy regime: Challenges and uncertainties

Transcription

1 Spain s renewable energy regime: Challenges and uncertainties Arturo Rojas and Belén Tubío 1 Recent regulatory changes affecting the renewable energy sector have radically changed remuneration for generation of power from these energy sources, The legal certainty and revenue visibility afforded by the old remuneration regime prompted a boom in renewable energy development in Spain, with these sources accounting for 42.8% of total output in 2014, according to Red Eléctrica de España (Spain s grid operator). According to the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA), this ranks Spain fourth worldwide in terms of installed wind capacity and number one in terms of installed Concentrating Solar Power (CSP). Under the new renewable energy remuneration regime, power produced from are now subject to review every six years. Changes in remuneration will now be shaped by potential mismatches between the system s regulated income and costs. The introduction of and as a consequence increased the level of returns demanded by investors in this sector. Electricity system imbalances system costs higher, exacerbating pressure on through increasing consumer prices, which rose number of equivalent hours of solar photovoltaic (Settlement 11/2014 by the energy sector 57 1

2 Arturo Rojas and Belén Tubío Exhibit 1 Annual average consumer bill /MWh Source: AFI based on Ministry of Industry data. Energy system costs than was forecast at the time of calculating the Prevailing regulatory framework Renewables Non Bill Cost Bill Cost Cost Energy Total Source: AFI based on Ministry of Industry data. for investment that is incremental to the revenue

3 portion of a facility s operating costs that cannot instances. Exhibit 2 Price adjustment mechanism LS2 LS1 LI1 Lower LI2 which is unique to each class of technology. at which the pool price is below the average, in higher pool remuneration Lower return: lower pool remuneration /MWh 59 Source: AFI based on RD 413/2014.

4 Arturo Rojas and Belén Tubío Exhibit 3 Historical average price in the daily and intra-day market: Estimated pool prices and LS2 LS1 LI1 LI2 Source: AFI based on OMEI quotes and Ministerial Order 1045/2014. energy facilities will receive, as higher pool prices facilities cannot recoup by means of market sales. of the facility s remuneration over the rest of its the facilities will receive lower income, although

5 renewable facilities from variation in pool prices, For example, in 2014, the average price in the prices are in line with average pool prices in recent years. Stagnation in capacity additions financial incentives for new power generation to the boom in investment in new capacity using farms with aggregate capacity of 450 MW in the Exhibit 4 Trend in installed renewable power generation and co-generation capacity 50,000 40,000 30,000 20, , Co Source: AFI based on Red Eléctrica de España (Annual Report).

6 Arturo Rojas and Belén Tubío 62 imply as substantial an increase as in the past energy of most renewable energy sources has fallen, particularly in the last four years, to far Exhibit 5 Regulated electricity system revenue and costs, 2014 (million ) costs coverage coefficient coverage coefficient Supply continuity 550 Capacity payments 917 7,463 Other 1, Energy =~ 15,407 = ~ tolls 14,961 revenue 1,462 carbon levies 3,251 Energy 15,407 revenue External revenue Sources: AFI based on CNMC Settlement Forecasts for 2014, OMEI and REE.

7 Electricity system sustainability: Balance between system income and costs renewable energy remuneration: One of the most important regime has lost its entitlement to revenue mitigating measure, there is a limit to the amount year in question. In the event that these limits to cover at least the amount by which these for the renewable energy generators, which parameters: remuneration parameters except for the Initial the 24 months prior to the May before the start of the Renewable energy remuneration risks An increase in pool 63

8 Arturo Rojas and Belén Tubío 64 there is always the risk that politicians will lack the willpower to pass the increase in pool prices on to consumers in full. If this were to happen, renewable remuneration premiums. token, alleviating the risk of mismatches between put too much pressure on electricity prices. In fact, if the increase in pool prices were of sufficient scale, some of these technologies remuneration, even if it means losing entitlement offset in the long term by means of entitlement to remuneration with respect to a higher Net Asset Contribution by market revenue vs. regulated remuneration to total remuneration (*) pool prices Investment remuneration supplement Operating remuneration supplement Solar 100 < > Note: (*) Average percentages based on 2014 remuneration using estimated pool prices. Sources: AFI based on CNMC Settlement Forecasts for 2014, OMEI and REE.

9 Drop in demand for electricity: status, which means that all of the energy the new regulatory framework, the renewable again face the threat of renewable remuneration Exhibit 6 Demand for electricity and GDP (percentage) renewable facilities revenue was not especially a less energy intensive mix, i.e., one that is 65 Source: Red Eléctrica de España.

10 Arturo Rojas and Belén Tubío 66 illustrative in terms of a potential change in the elasticity of >1 once again. Investor appetite remuneration as to warrant a return that is higher higher at 1.96 billion euros than its valuation for SAETA IPO and return expectations Market value 852 1,108 1,961 1, CNMV on 12/02/15 and the disclosures made in the prospectus dated 30/1/2015. Source: AFI estimates. Assuming continuation of the current regulatory regime, investors are expecting a return on the able to generate by selling its output at pool prices Summary and conclusions in Spain, it became untenable to continue to protect remuneration purposes. the reasonable return. New facility financing arrangements can be As for existing capacity, the room for manoeuvre offer a reasonable level of visibility in terms of cash