Potential for Floating Offshore Wind in the UK

Transcription

1 Potential for Floating Offshore Wind in the UK Offshore Wind Structures 15 th April 2015, London Andrew Scott Programme Manager, Offshore Renewables 2015 Energy Technologies Institute LLP The information in this document is the property of Energy Technologies Institute LLP and may not be copied or communicated to a third party, or used for any purpose other than that for which it is supplied without the express written consent of Energy Technologies Institute LLP This information Energy is given Technologies in good faith based Institute upon the latest LLP information - Subject available to to notes Energy on Technologies page 1Institute LLP, no warranty or representation is given concerning such information, which must not be taken as establishing any contractual or other commitment binding upon Energy Technologies Institute LLP or any of its subsidiary or associated companies.

2 What is the ETI? The ETI is a public-private partnership between global energy and engineering companies and the UK Government ETI members Our role is to bring together engineering projects that accelerate the development of affordable, secure and sustainable technologies that help the UK address its long-term emissions reductions targets as well as delivering nearer term benefits. ETI programme associate

3 How much offshore wind will there be in 2050? It all depends!

4 ETI have created two scenarios for 2050 They are scenarios that are plausible and affordable They are not predictions or forecasts of most probably outcomes Help illustrate key lessons Identify technologies likely to be important to cost effective low carbon energy system for the UK And some that are more expensive, but have popular support Both scenarios deliver an affordable transition to low carbon energy in the next 35 years Abatement costs in range 1 to 2% of GDP For more information on the scenarios, go to

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7 Clockwork Well coordinated, long term investments allow energy infrastructure to be installed like clockwork Large scale use of district heating Vehicles and transport; similar to now, though with improved efficiency Large scale investment in CCS & New Nuclear Growth in renewables continues to 2020s, moves to replacing old renewables capacity Hydrogen used for peaking generation plant, produced from bioenergy with CCS

8 Clockwork Well coordinated, long term investments allow energy infrastructure to be installed like clockwork Large scale use of district heating Vehicles and transport; similar to now, though with improved efficiency Large scale investment in CCS & New Nuclear Growth in renewables continues to 2020s, moves to replacing old renewables capacity Hydrogen used for peaking generation plant, produced from bioenergy with CCS 2050 electricity capacity ~ 130GW Of which ~20 GW Offshore Wind ~15 GW Onshore Wind ~10GW of other renewables

9 Patchwork Central government takes less of a lead role Patchwork of distinct regional energy strategies Society gets involved; partly by choice and partly in response to rising energy costs Limited role for offsetting, so extensive decarbonisation needed across all sectors. Over time, patchwork solutions integrate into a national solution

10 Patchwork Central government takes less of a lead role Patchwork of distinct regional energy strategies Society gets involved; partly by choice and partly in response to rising energy costs Limited role for offsetting, so extensive decarbonisation needed across all sectors. Over time, patchwork solutions integrate into a national solution Government backs large scale projects (eg Offshore Wind) Local authorities and communities support CHP, onshore wind and solar Initially, lower investor appetite for CCS and Nuclear Limited use of Bioenergy; about ½ that of clockwork. the negative emissions shortfall has to be filled by next-lowest cost low carbon solutions (i.e. a lot of OSW). Improved energy efficiency in housing Cities set aggressive vehicle efficiency targets

11 Patchwork Central government takes less of a lead role Patchwork of distinct regional energy strategies Society gets involved; partly by choice and partly in response to rising energy costs Limited role for offsetting, so extensive decarbonisation needed across all sectors. Over time, patchwork solutions integrate into a national solution Government backs large scale projects (eg Offshore Wind) Local authorities and communities support CHP, onshore wind and solar Initially, lower investor appetite for CCS and Nuclear Limited use of Bioenergy; about ½ that of clockwork. the negative emissions shortfall has to be filled by next-lowest cost low carbon solutions (i.e. a lot of OSW). Improved energy efficiency in housing Cities set aggressive vehicle efficiency targets 2050 electricity capacity ~190GW Offshore wind ~55GW, Onshore wind ~20GW Other renewables ~45GW

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13 So how much offshore wind will be in 2050? It really does all depend. These scenarios suggest range of 20GW to 55GW Other scenarios could be different

14 So how much offshore wind will be in 2050? It really does all depend. These scenarios suggest range of 20GW to 55GW One things is clear: Offshore Wind plays an important role; both in its own right and if other technologies are constrained

15 OFFSHORE WIND FLOATING SYSTEM FEED STUDY

16 ETI kicked off the floating foundation project to access better quality wind, close to shore Our studies showed that to deliver lowest cost offshore wind we needed to access: High wind speed site Close enough to shore to Be maintainable from a shore base Avoid HVDC transmission

17 ETI kicked off the floating foundation project to access better quality wind, close to shore Our studies showed that to deliver lowest cost offshore wind we needed to access: High wind speed site Close enough to shore to Be maintainable from a shore base Avoid HVDC transmission This insight is reinforced by the results of the FEED study

18 ETI commissioned a FEED study for a TLP based system Best additionality for ETI Led by Glosten Associates Alstom 6MW turbine

19 ETI commissioned a FEED study for a TLP based system Best additionality for ETI Led by Glosten Associates Alstom 6MW turbine Objectives Understand LCOE potential of Glosten TLP technology Develop a design for a full scale demonstrator To inform the LCOE study Provide a highly detailed design for a specific site that with validated costs

20 Deeper Water Foundations Source: Glosten Associates

21 The TLP seabed footprint is potentially significant advantage PelaStar (Tension Leg) Mooring Compact footprint Minimal impact on seabed Lease Area Impact Efficient Turbine Layout Source: Glosten Associates

22 The FEED study drew on the expertise of highly credible organisations

23 The TLP FEED study indicates that a TLP solution could be very attractive for UK (and other) waters Actual deployment likely to be 5+ years longer than shown in this graph A paper on the UK cost study is available at

24 So, how much floating wind could there be by 2050? If 40GW of offshore wind is deployed by 2050, between 8 and 16GW could be TLP based floating offshore wind Scottish waters are particularly well suited to TLP technology As are Welsh Waters English sites are less suited to TLP Fixed foundations tend to be cheaper It would be good if we could add semisubmersibles, spar buoys and concrete hulls into our study

25 What next? Glosten are working to on gaining investment for a 6MW demonstrator Build compelling case for a demonstrator with key stakeholders Extend the ETI technology comparison study to include other floating technologies Other developers are putting together proposals for floating foundations for The Crown Estate s proposed Scottish demonstration site leases. Demonstration of floating technology is vital to assure developers that it will meet their needs Japan and USA (west coast) may well take lead in developing floating offshore wind

26 Conclusions Offshore Wind has a significant role to play in the UK 2050 energy mix Provides proven capability if other technology deployment is constrained Depending on the scenario, potential 2050 Offshore Wind capacity varies from ~20GW to over 55GW Deployment of 8 to 16 GW of TLP floating wind (if total is 40GW) could make economic sense for the UK Potential to deliver costs at less than 85/MWh Stakeholder need to encourage the demonstration of floating wind technology Need further work to establish cost of energy potential for each floating technology. LCOE for floating wind varies between technologies

27 Questions?

28 Conclusions Offshore Wind has a significant role to play in the UK 2050 energy mix Provides proven capability if other technology deployment is constrained Depending on the scenario, potential 2050 Offshore Wind capacity varies from ~20GW to over 55GW Deployment of 8 to 16 GW of TLP floating wind (if total is 40GW) could make economic sense for the UK Potential to deliver costs at less than 85/MWh Stakeholder need to encourage the demonstration of floating wind technology Need further work to establish cost of energy potential for each floating technology. LCOE for floating wind varies between technologies

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