Wenxiu Wang, 1,2,3 Yaoqiu Kuang, 2 Ningsheng Huang, 2 and Daiqing Zhao Introduction

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1 e Scentfc World Journal, Artcle ID 78275, 11 pages Research Artcle Emprcal Research on Decouplng Relatonshp between Energy-Related Carbon Emsson and Economc Growth n Guangdong Provnce Based on Extended Kaya Identty Wenxu Wang, 1,2,3 Yaoqu Kuang, 2 Nngsheng Huang, 2 and Daqng Zhao 1 1 Guangzhou Insttute of Energy Converson, Chnese Academy of Scences, Guangzhou, Guangdong 5164, Chna 2 Sustanable Development Research Center, Guangzhou Insttute of Geochemstry, Chnese Academy of Scences, Guangzhou, Guangdong 5164, Chna 3 Unversty of Chnese Academy of Scences, Beng 149, Chna Correspondence should be addressed to Daqng Zhao; zhaodq@ms.gec.ac.cn Receved 31 December 213; Accepted 22 January 214; Publshed 23 March 214 Academc Edtors: C. Koroneos and Y. Nng Copyrght 214 Wenxu Wang et al. Ths s an open access artcle dstrbuted under the Creatve Commons Attrbuton Lcense, whch permts unrestrcted use, dstrbuton, and reproducton n any medum, provded the orgnal work s properly cted. The decouplng elastcty decomposton quanttatve model of energy-related carbon emsson n Guangdong s establshed based on the extended Kaya dentty and Tapo decouplng model for the frst tme, to explore the decouplng relatonshp and ts nternal mechansm between energy-related carbon emsson and economc growth n Guangdong. Man results are as follows. (1) Total producton energy-related carbon emssons n Guangdong ncrease from tc n 1995 to tc n 211. Decouplng elastcty values of energy-related carbon emsson and economc growth ncrease from.53 n 1996 to.85 n 211, and ts decouplng state turns from weak decouplng n to expansve couplng n (2) Land economc output and energy ntensty are the frst nhbtng factor and the frst promotng factor to energy-related carbon emsson decouplng from economc growth, respectvely. The development speeds of land urbanzaton and populaton urbanzaton, especally land urbanzaton, play decsve roles n the change of total decouplng elastcty values. (3) Guangdong can realze decouplng of energyrelated carbon emsson from economc growth effectvely by adustng the energy mx and ndustral structure, coordnatng the development speed of land urbanzaton and populaton urbanzaton effectvely, and strengthenng the constructon of carbon snk. 1. Introducton IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4, 27) ndcates that the ncrease of global greenhouse gas manly results from the burnng of fossl energy. The statstcal data show that the greenhouse gas emsson resultng from human producton and daly actvtes accounts for more than 9% of the total amount of global greenhouse gas emsson due to large amounts of fossl fuels snce the ndustral revoluton [1]. The nternatonal communty has reached the agreement that the contnuous carbon emsson reducton s an mportant measuretotackletheclmatechangepostvely[2]. The energy-related carbon emsson n Chna has accounted for a large part of the world total amounts. The statstcal data from IEA [3] lst the energy-related carbon emsson data from around the world. The data ndcate that the CO 2 emsson n USA was top one n the world from 1971 to 26. CO 2 emsson amount s 6.37 bllon ton n Chna and bllon ton n the USA n 27 when Chna surpassed the Unted States for the frst tme and became the world number 1 energy-related carbon emsson country. Snce then, energy-related carbon emssons of Chna show strong growth momentum, and the CO 2 emsson amount keeps number 1 n the world. Tll 21, Chna CO 2 emsson amount was bllon ton, accountng for 24.66% of the world energy CO 2 emsson. Chna has played an mportant role n the ssue of world carbon emsson and been undertakng the ncreasng emsson reducton stresses n nternatonal communty. Our government promsed to reduce CO 2 emsson per unt GDP by 4% 45% n 22 compared to that n 25

2 2 The Scentfc World Journal ncopenhagenclmatechangeconferencenlate29, whch had been already ncorporated nto the medum- and long-term plannng program of natonal economc and socal development as a bndng ndcator. Therefore, explorng the hgh-effcent carbon reducton measures and approaches, fulfllng the carbon reducton task effectvely and realzng the low carbon economy are our man challenges. Guangdong, located n the subtropcal part of southern Chna manland (Fgure 1), between lattude N and longtude E, s one of the regons whch have the most abundant lght, heat, and water resources n Chna. It s the largest provnce n economy and populaton and urbanzaton n Chna, ts gross domestc product (GDP), and permanent populaton and urbanzaton rate reached 5321 bllon yuans and 15.5 mllon persons and 66.5% n 211, respectvely. It s also one of the largest provnces n energy consumpton and ts total energy consumpton reached mllon ton standard coal equvalent (tsce) n 211, only behnd Shandong and Hebe. The Natonal Development and Reform Commsson lsted Guangdong as thenatonallow-carbonplotregonsn21.thenatonal 12th fve-year plan requres the energy consumpton per unt GDP of Guangdong cut down by 18% n 215 compared to that n 21 whle CO 2 emsson per unt GDP cut down by 19.5%. Guangdong faces huge stresses n emsson reducton and needs practcal and effectve carbon emsson reducton strateges to promote low-carbon provnce constructon. Many researches show that the carbon emsson has close relatonshp wth the economc growth [4 12]. In the long run,thecourseofmovngtowardslowcarboneconomyfor a country s to realze decouplng of the carbon emsson from economc growth gradually. Therefore, the fnal method to realze the hgh-effcent carbon emsson reducton and low carbon economy s to weaken or break the lnk between carbon emsson and economc growth. The word decouplng s frstly used n physcs used to elmnate the nterrelaton between two or more physcal quanttes and response relatonshp [13]. Organzaton for Economc Cooperaton and Development (OECD) frst proposes the concept of decouplng and dvdes t nto absolute decouplng and relatve decouplng, whch contrbutes to the theory research nto decouplng [14]. Tapo ntroduces the elastcty method to decouplng research, whch further develops and mproves the decouplng theory [15, 16]. Wth the ncreasng aggravaton of resource shortage, envronmental polluton and ecologcal damage resultng from economc growth n 2th century, the decouplng dea s ntroduced to research nto economc growth and resource shortage and greenhouse gas emsson by some scholars to realze the breakdown of couplng relatonshp between expected varables (e.g., economc growth) and nonexpected varables (e.g., resource nvestment or greenhouse gas emsson). Inthefeldofcarbonemssonreducton,Tapo[15]frst uses the decouplng elastcty method to research nto the decouplng stuatons between traffc volumes and greenhouse gas emsson and economc growth of European transportaton.zhuang [17] researched nto decouplng ndex of CO 2 emsson and economc growth n Tawan. Zhuang [18] apples Tapo decouplng ndex to analyze the decouplng 5 N 4 N 3 N 2 N 1 N 7 E 8 E 9 E 1 E 11 E 12 E 13 E 14 E 7 E 8 E 9 E 1 E 11 E 12 E 13 E 14 E Fgure 1: Geographc locaton of Guangdong n Chna. 5 N 4 N 3 N 2 N 1 N stuatons n dfferent perods n global 2 greenhouse gas emsson countres ncludng Chna. Gray et al. [19] researched nto the decouplng stuatons between traffc volumes and CO 2 emsson and economc growth n Scotland. L and Qng [2] apply OECD decouplng ndex and Tapo decouplng ndex to analyze the relatonshp between ndustral added value and energy consumpton nvestment and CO 2 emsson n Shanx Industral Department. Overall, most of foregn and domestc scholars manly research nto measurng decuplng ndex of carbon emsson and economc growth, whle few of them research nto the mechansm of changes of decouplng ndex and ts decouplng state. There are only Zhao and L [16], Wang et al. [21], and Wang et al. [22] who have made such relatve research n our county. There s no research on the decouplng relatonshp between energy-related carbon emsson and economc growth n Guangdong, and no research takes urbanzaton nto account. In vew of ths, decouplng elastcty decomposton quanttatve model of energy-related carbon emsson s establshed by combng nfluence factors decomposton model of energy-related carbon emsson, whchsbasedonbascprncpleofkayamodel,wthtapo decouplng model n ths paper. The man purpose s to explore the decouplng relatonshp and nternal mechansm between energy-related carbon emsson and economc growth,to seek the key nfluence factors of decouplng and put forward to targeted polcy recommendatons to realze decouplng of carbon emssons form economc growth. Provde nformaton support and decson bass to promotng low carbon work for government of Guangdong provnce and provde emprcal bases for natonal low carbon economy development. Productonsectorsthemansourceofenergy-related carbon emsson and t partcpates n the creaton of the GDP and household s not nvolved n the creaton of the GDP, so the energy-related carbon emsson n ths paper only refers to the producton energy-related carbon emsson, not ncludng household energy-related carbon emsson.

3 The Scentfc World Journal 3 2. Methods and Data Sources 2.1. Calculaton of Energy-Related Carbon Emsson. Producton energy consumpton refers to energy consumpton by the three strata of ndustry. Farmng, forestry, anmal husbandry, fshery, and water conservancybelongtotheprmaryndustry.industryand constructon belong to the secondary ndustry. Transport, storage, postal and telecommuncaton servces, wholesale and retal trade and caterng servces, and others belong to the tertary ndustry. Among them, energy consumpton by the ndustry sector ncludes the end-use energy consumpton by ndustry sector and energy consumpton by producton of thermal power and heat power. There are 17 types of energy, ncludng coal, crude ol, natural gas, and other fossl fuels and ther products, accordng to Energy Balance Sheet of Guangdong Provnce n Chna Energy Statstcal Yearbook. Energy-related carbon emssons are calculated as follows: C= C = E f, where C s carbon emssons from energy consumpton, s the type of ndustry, s the type of energy, C represent carbon emssons of energy n ndustry, E represent consumpton of energy n ndustry, andf s carbon emsson coeffcent of energy. Carbon emsson coeffcents of dfferent knds of energy can be seen n Table Establshment of Decouplng Elastcty Decomposton Quanttatve Model of Energy-Related Carbon Emsson Decouplng Model of Carbon Emsson. There are two kndsofcarbonemssondecouplngmodels,thats,oecd decouplng model and Tapo decouplng model. The formula of OECD decouplng model s as follows: D oecd =1 (C/GDP) T, (2) (C/GDP) where C s carbon emsson, GDP s gross domestc product. The subscrpt s base tme and T s fnal tme. The formula of Tapo decouplng model s as follows: ΔC/C D t = ΔGDP/GDP, (3) where C sthecarbonemssonofcurrentyear,δc s the change amount of carbon emsson on current tme compared wth the base tme, GDP s the gross domestc product n current year, and ΔGDP s the change amount of GDP on currenttmecomparedwththebasetme.tapo[15] defnes 8 decouplng states accordng to the decouplng elastcty value; see Table 2. Many scholars fnd the advantages of Tapo decouplng model whch cannot be surpassed by OECD decouplng model through emprcal verfcaton and comparson [16]. So ths paper apples Tapo decouplng model when establshng decouplng elastcty decomposton quanttatve model of energy-related carbon emsson. (1) Decomposton Model of Energy-Related Carbon Emsson Based on Kaya Identty. Kaya dentty s frst put forward by Japanese scholars Kaya [23, 24]. Kaya dentty establshed the relatonshp between economy, polcy, populaton, and CO 2 emsson caused by the human actvty. It s wdely used n the feld of energy economy and envronmental economy for ts smple structure and easy to be operated, although ts polcy mplcaton has some lmtatons [25]. In ths paper, we establsh decomposton model of energy-related carbon emsson only to get change amount of carbon emsson of each decomposton factor and use them n Tapo decouplng model, so lmtatons of Kaya dentty are elmnated. In recent years, wth the acceleraton of urbanzaton progress, the relaton between urbanzaton and carbon emsson has generally been the hot topc for scholars [26 28]. There are no researches ncorporatng the urbanzaton ndex nto extended Kaya model n those references [29 33]. As the leadng provnce for the reform and openng up, development model and features and speed of urbanzaton of Guangdong are typcal. Therefore, the urbanzaton ndexes are ncorporated nto decomposton model of energy-related carbon emsson to explore the role of urbanzaton n the processofdecouplngofcarbonemssonfromeconomc growth. The results wll provde mportant sgnfcance for low carbon urbanzaton development of our country. The decomposton model of energy-related carbon emsson s establshed as follows accordng to the basc prncple of Kaya model: C= = ( C PE PE PE GDP S PE GDP GDP GDP S S u S u P u P u P P) (f m d s g l r h p), where GDP s the gross domestc product. s types of ndustral, s type of energy, C s the carbon emsson generated by energy n ndustry, PE s the consumpton of energy n the ndustry, PE s the energy consumpton of ndustry, GDP s the added value of ndustry, S s land area, S u surbanconstructonlandarea,p u s nonagrcultural populaton, and P s total populaton wth resdence regstraton. f s coeffcent of energy-related carbon emsson; m s the proporton of energy n the energy consumpton of ndustry, that s, energy mx; d s the energy consumpton of per unt GDP of the ndustry, that s, energy ntensty; s s the proporton of GDP of ndustry n total GDP, that s, ndustral structure; g s the GDP of per unt land area, that s, land economc output; l s the recprocal of land urbanzaton rate, so ts change can express the change of land urbanzaton ndrectly; h s the nonagrcultural rate of populaton and t s an mportant ndex to measure the urbanzaton level and we take t as populaton urbanzaton; r s the urban area of per capta and s the result of combned acton of land urbanzaton and populaton urbanzaton; p has the same mean wth P. (4)

4 4 The Scentfc World Journal Energy type Table 1: Carbon emsson coeffcents of dfferent knds of energy. Net calorfc value (TJ/1 3 t) Carbon content (t/tj) Carbon emsson coeffcents (tc/t) Raw coal Washed clean coal Other types of washed coal Brquettes Coke Coke-oven gas.2 Other gases.2 Other cokng products Natural gas.44 Crude ol Gasolne Kerosene Desel ol Fuel ol Lquefed petroleum gas Refnery gas Other petroleum products Notes: (1) The unt of carbon emsson coeffcents of Coke-oven gas, other gases, and natural gas s ton carbon/ton standard coal equvalent or tc/tsce. Carbon emsson coeffcent of natural gas comes from reference [35] and carbon emsson coeffcents of coke-oven gas and other gases are calculated accordng to the relatonshp between ther calorfc value and natural gas. (2) The unt of other energy s carbon emsson coeffcent s ton C/ton or tc/t. It represents carbon emsson from one tone physcal quantty energy. Carbon emsson coeffcent = net calorfc value carbon content, net calorfc value, and carbon content come from 26 IPCC Gudelnes for Natonal Greenhouse Gas Inventores [36]. Carbon content per unt coal s hgher than ol, but ts net calorfc value s lower than that of ol, resultng n the carbon emsson coeffcent of coal beng lower than for ol. We reference here the paper [37]. Table 2: Eght decouplng states dvded by Tapo (25) [15]. Decouplng elastcty values (D t ) ΔC/C ΔGDP/GDP Decouplng states D t < < > Strong decouplng D t <.8 > > Weak decouplng.8 D t 1.2 > > Expansvecouplng D t > 1.2 > > Expansve negatve decouplng D t < > < Strong negatve decouplng D t <.8 < < Weak negatve decouplng.8 D t 1.2 < < Recessve couplng D t > 1.2 < < Recessve decouplng The Logarthmc Mean Dvsa Index (LMDI) method s wdely used n decomposton of factors affectng energyrelatedcarbonemssonforthattcansatsfytherequrement of factor reversble and the resdual tem elmnated, whch makes the model more convncng [34]. So LMDI method s also used n ths paper. Take 1995 as the base tme, set the ncrement of carbon emsson as C n 1995 and C T n T year; there s ΔC = C T C. (5) The expressons for the contrbuton values of the decomposed factors of the energy-related carbon emssons from the productve sector are as follows: ΔC f = ΔC m = ΔC d = α ln FT, F α ln MT, M α ln DT, D

5 The Scentfc World Journal 5 ΔC s = ΔC g = α ln ST, S α ln GT G, quanttatve model of energy-related carbon emsson s establshed as follows: D t = ΔC/C ΔGDP/GDP = ΔC C GDP ΔGDP =ΔC GDP C ΔGDP = (ΔC m +ΔC d +ΔC s +ΔC g +ΔC l +ΔC r +ΔC h +ΔC p ) ΔC l = ΔC r = ΔC h = ΔC p = α ln LT L, α ln RT R, α ln HT H, α ln PT P. (6) = GDP C ΔGDP ΔC m /C ΔGDP/GDP + ΔC d /C ΔGDP/GDP ΔC s /C ΔGDP/GDP + ΔC g /C ΔGDP/GDP ΔC l /C ΔGDP/GDP + ΔC r /C ΔGDP/GDP ΔC h /C ΔGDP/GDP + ΔC p /C ΔGDP/GDP =D m +D d +D s +D g +D l +D r +D h +D p, (9) Then, the total changes of productve energy-related carbon emsson can be expressed as ΔC = C T C =ΔC f +ΔC m +ΔC t +ΔC s +ΔC g +ΔC l +ΔC r +ΔC h +ΔC p, where α=(c T C )/(ln CT ln C ) and ΔC f, ΔC m, ΔC d, ΔC s, ΔC g, ΔC l, ΔC r, ΔC h, and ΔC p are the contrbuton values to total carbon emsson by the changes of carbon emsson coeffcent, energy mx, energy ntensty, ndustral structure, land economc output, land urbanzaton, urban area of per capta, populaton urbanzaton, and populaton sze, respectvely. l s the recprocal of land urbanzaton rate, so the contrbuton values caused by changes of land urbanzaton are ΔC l after LMDI decomposton. Carbon emsson coeffcent of dfferent knds of energy s generally treated as constant n the actual applcaton. Therefore, n the decomposton model, ΔC f =.The formula (7) can be smplfed as ΔC = C T C =ΔC m +ΔC t +ΔC s +ΔC g +ΔC l +ΔC r +ΔC h +ΔC p Decouplng Elastcty Decomposton Quanttatve Model of Energy-Related Carbon Emsson. Combnng formula (8) wth formula (3), the decouplng elastcty decomposton (7) (8) where D t s the decouplng elastcty value of total energyrelatedcarbonemssonandeconomcgrowthandd m, D d, D s, D g, D l, D r, D h,andd p are the decouplng elastcty values of energy mx, energy ntensty, ndustral structure, land economc output, land urbanzaton, urban area of per capta, populaton urbanzaton, and populaton sze, respectvely Data Sources and Processng. The energy data used n ths paper are quoted from Energy Balance Sheet of Guangdong Provnce n the Chna Energy Statstcal Yearbook ( ). Other data come from the Statstcal Yearbook of Guangdong Provnce ( ) and Statstcal Yearbook of chna ( ) of the correspondng year. To elmnate the effect of prce changes, we converted the GDP at current prce to the GDP at constant prce n the year 2 by usng ndces of GDP (IGDP, precedng year = 1). The year 1995 s set as baselne year n LMDI method. 3. Results and Dscusson 3.1. Analyss on Total Energy-Related Carbon Emsson. The estmated results (Fgure 2) show that the total energy-related carbon emssons n Guangdong provnce ncreased from tc (tc, ton of Carbon) n 1995 to tc n 211, ncreased by tc and the average annual growth rate s 8.12%. Among the three strata of ndustry, energy-related carbon emssons from the prmary ndustry show decreasng trend, whch fluctuate n a narrow range, decreasng from tc n 1995 to tc n 211, and the average annual declne rate s 1.3%. The energyrelated carbon emssons from the secondary ndustry and the tertary ndustry both show ncrease trends, ncreasng from tc and tc n 1995 to tc

6 6 The Scentfc World Journal Energy-related carbon emsson (1 4 tc) Secondary ndustry Tertary ndustry Total energy-related carbon emsson Prmary ndustry Energy-related carbon emsson from prmary (1 4 tc) Fgure 2: Change trends of energy-related carbon emsson from 1995 to 211. and tc n 211, respectvely, and the average annual growth rates are 8.9% and 9.94%, respectvely. It s obvous that the secondary ndustry s the largest source of carbon emsson, whch accounts for more than 85% of the total energy-related carbon emsson. The tertary ndustry s the second largest source, whch accounts for about 1% of the total energy-related carbon emsson. The prmary ndustry accounts for a small proporton and shows declne trend year by year Analyss on Decouplng Relatonshp between Energy- Related Carbon Emsson and Economc Growth. Results of decouplng elastcty values and decouplng states of varous decomposton factors can be seen n Table 3 and Fgure 5. The decouplng elastcty values of energy mx were negatve n and turned to postve n (Fgure 3), and the decouplng states turned nto weak decouplng from strong decouplng. Manly because the energy mx n Guangdong got some mprovement durng , the proporton of coal shows declne trend. The proporton of coal rose sgnfcantly snce 26, although the proporton of ol consumpton n ths perod declned whle theproportonofnaturalgasroseandthestructureofhghcarbon energy consumpton wth coal and ol as prmary n Guangdong provnce has not mproved greatly, especal snce 21 (Fgure 3). Ths ndcates that adustment of energy mxnguangdongsgoodfordecouplngofenergy-related carbon emsson from economc growth n but not benefcal to decouplng of energy-related carbon emsson from economc growth n The decouplng elastcty values of ndustral structure turned nto postve from negatve n 24, and the decouplng states turned nto weak from strong. Manly because the proporton of secondary ndustry ncreased whle the proporton of tertary ndustry reduced snce 22 (Fgure 4). Ths ndcates that the adustment of ndustral structure n Guangdong has not effectvely reduced the carbon emsson but promoted the carbon emsson snce 24. It s good Energy mx (%) Coal Ol Natural gas Decouplng elastcty values Fgure 3: Energy mx and decouplng elastcty values of energy mx from 1995 to 211. (%) Prmary ndustry Secondary ndustry Decouplng elastcty values of energy mx Decouplng elastcty values of ndustral structure Tertary ndustry Decouplng elastcty values Fgure 4: Industral structure and decouplng elastcty values of ndustral structure from 1995 to 211. for decouplng of energy-related carbon emsson from economc growth n but not benefcal to decouplng of energy-related carbon emsson from economc growth n Asakndofrepresentatveformofeconomcdevelopment level, the land economc output s closely related to the economc growth, so t s always n the expansve couplng state. Its decouplng elastcty values ncrease from 1.3 n 1996 to 1.17 n 211 and land economc output s the frst mportant nhbted factor for the decouplng of energyrelated carbon emsson from economc growth. Energy ntensty s the comprehensve ndex of techncal progress for a country or regon. Durng the research, the energy ntensty n Guangdong reduces year by year, decreasng from 1.15 (tsce) per 1, yuans (RMB) n 1995 to.72 (tsce) per 1, yuans n 211, whch ndcates that techncal level n Guangdong has greatly mproved. Decouplng elastcty values of energy ntensty are always negatve, whch ndcates that the energy ntensty s the man

7 The Scentfc World Journal 7 Table 3: Decouplng elastcty values and decouplng states of varous decomposton factors n Guangdong from 1996 to 211. (a) Energy mx Energy ntensty Industral structure Land economc output Value D m State of decouplng Value D d State of decouplng Value D s State of decouplng Value D g State of decouplng SD.4 SD.7 SD 1.3 EC SD.53 SD.1 SD 1.7 EC SD.52 SD.7 SD 1.9 EC SD.46 SD.7 SD 1.11 EC 2.2 SD.47 SD.8 SD 1.11 EC 21.2 SD.46 SD.1 SD 1.13 EC 22.2 SD.42 SD.9 SD 1.14 EC 23.1 SD.39 SD.2 SD 1.14 EC 24.2 SD.37 SD.1 WD 1.14 EC 25.1 SD.34 SD.3 WD 1.13 EC 26.1 SD.34 SD.3 WD 1.14 EC 27. WD.33 SD.2 WD 1.14 EC 28.1 WD.37 SD.2 WD 1.16 EC 29.2 WD.36 SD.1 WD 1.16 EC 21.4 WD.42 SD.2 WD 1.18 EC WD.37 SD.1 WD 1.17 EC Land urbanzaton Urban area of per capta (b) Populaton urbanzaton Populaton sze Total decouplng elastcty Value D l State of decouplng Value D r State of decouplng Value D h State of decouplng Value D p State of decouplng Value D t State of decouplng WD.2 SD.19 WD.15 WD.53 WD WD.17 SD.17 WD.16 WD.41 WD WD.19 SD.14 WD.16 WD.47 WD WD.13 SD.11 WD.19 WD.52 WD 2.29 WD.1 WD.9 WD.22 WD.56 WD 21.5 WD.22 WD.1 WD.2 WD.58 WD WD.9 WD.3 WD.19 WD.63 WD WD.11 SD.61 WD.17 WD.73 WD EC.17 WD.55 WD.16 WD.77 WD EC.16 WD.54 WD.15 WD.82 EC WD.15 WD.48 WD.15 WD.83 EC WD.2 WD.44 WD.15 WD.84 EC WD.19 WD.42 WD.15 WD.83 EC WD.22 WD.4 WD.15 WD.83 EC WD.22 WD.38 WD.16 WD.83 EC WD.23 WD.36 WD.15 WD.85 EC Notes: SD represents strong decouplng; WD represents weak decouplng; EC represents expansve couplng. motvator to realze the decouplng of energy-related carbon emsson from economc growth. Populaton sze s always n the weak decouplng, but the changes of decouplng elastcty value for populaton sze are smaller, ndcatng the relatvely smaller nfluence of the populaton sze on the decouplng relatonshp between energy-related carbon emsson and economc growth n Guangdong. Durng the research, the decouplng elastcty values of land urbanzaton and populaton urbanzaton both show nverted-n trend (Fgure 5), ndcatng that the decouplng states of both urbanzaton ndexes are unstable and easly affected by external factors. But the turnng pont years of two nverted-n are dfferent. The ascent stage of land urbanzaton s n whle populaton urbanzaton s n In addton, the decouplng elastcty values of

8 8 The Scentfc World Journal land urbanzaton hgher than populaton urbanzaton, and the populaton urbanzaton always shows weak decouplng state n the whole research tme, whle the land urbanzaton shows weak decouplng state n the whole research tme except n when t shows expanded couplng state, whch ndcated that the land urbanzaton has more nhbtng effect than the populaton urbanzaton on the decouplng of energy-related carbon emsson from economc growth durng the research perod. The urban area of per capta s the result of combned acton of land urbanzaton and populaton urbanzaton. Urban area of per capta ncreased year by year and ndcates that development speed of the two urbanzatons s uncoordnated. Decouplng elastcty values of the urban area of percaptawerenegatven andturnedtopostve n (except n 23, may be nfluenced by SARS), and the decouplng states turned nto weak decouplng from strong decouplng, whch ndcates that the ncrease of urban area of per capta s not benefcal to decouplng of energyrelated carbon emsson from economc growth. The total decouplng elastcty values between energyrelated carbon emsson and economc growth n Guangdong provnce totally show ncreasng trend from 1996 to 211, ncreased from.53 to.85, and the decuplng state turned nto expansve couplng from weak decouplng n 25. Combnng the above analyss on change trends of decouplng elastcty values and decouplng states of each factor, the total decouplng relatonshp between energy-related carbon emsson and economc growth can be analyzed from the followng two stages (see Fgure5). Stage I ( ): Weak Decouplng Stage. Theenergyrelatedcarbonemssonandeconomcgrowthshowlowcarbon economy feature of weak decouplng. The decouplng elastcty value ncreases year by year (except the year of 1997), ncreased from.53 n 1996 (.4 n 1997) to.77 n 24. The decouplng elastcty value declned markedly n 1997, whch was manly attrbuted to the nfluence of Asa- Pacfc fnancal crss on economy and energy-related carbon emsson snce The fnancal crss drectly leads to the slow ncrease of economy n Guangdong, and the ncreasng speed of energy-related carbon emsson s also affected n a certan degree, resultng n temporary decouplng ntensve process between energy-related carbon emsson and economc growth. After 1998, wth recoverng economy and speedng up ndustralzaton process, the economy and energy-related carbon emsson n Guangdong both show rapdly ncreasng trend, the decouplng relatons between them get weaker and weaker, and the features of the low carbon economy are not obvous ncreasngly. Ths stuaton s manly affected by land urbanzaton. In the later perod of the 9th fveyear plan (1998 2), land urbanzaton extended ahead of the populaton urbanzaton (Fgure 6, land urbanzaton ncreased by.1% and populaton urbanzaton almost negatve growth) and the decouplng elastcty values of land urbanzaton ncreased from.11 to.29. Land urbanzaton and populaton urbanzaton both speed up durng the 1th fve-year plan (21 25) (see Fgure 6), whch are related to Decouplng elastcty values Expansve negatve decouplng Expansve couplng Energy mx Energy ntensty Industral structure Land economc output Land urbanzaton Strong decouplng Weak decouplng Urban area of per capta Populaton urbanzaton Populaton sze Total decouplng elastcty Fgure 5: Change trends of each of decouplng elastcty values between energy-related carbon emsson and economc growth from 1996 to 211. Land urbanzaton (%) th fve-year plan 1th fve-year plan Land urbanzaton Populaton urbanzaton 11th fve-year plan 12th fve-- year plan Fgure 6: Change trends of urbanzaton n Guangdong from 1995 to 211. the real estate nvestment, relatve low prce of housng, and more flexble land polces. Decouplng elastcty values of land urbanzaton and populaton urbanzaton ncrease from.5and.1n21to.86and.55n24,respectvely, whch ndcate that acceleraton of both land urbanzaton and populaton urbanzaton n ths perod are not benefcal to the decouplng of energy-related carbon emsson from economc growth. Although the changes of energy ntensty resulted n the strong decouplng relatonshp between Populaton urbanzaton (%)

9 The Scentfc World Journal 9 energy-related carbon emsson and economc growth, the strong decouplng relatonshp s weakenng (Fgure 5) and could not offset the adverse effects of land economc output and urbanzaton. In addton to these, land economc output s the frst mportant nhbted factor for the decouplng of energy-related carbon emsson from economc growth durng the research, but t changed a lttle, so t does not have much mpact on the change of the total decouplng elastcty values. From what has been dscussed above, land economc output and land urbanzaton are the man nhbted factors to decouplng of energy-related carbon emsson from economy growth, but land urbanzaton plays a bgger role n change of the total decouplng elastcty values. Energy ntensty s the man drve factor durng Stage II (25 211): Expansve Couplng Stage. Thedecouplng relatonshp between energy-related carbon emsson and economc growth turnd nto expansve couplng from weak decouplng n stage I. But total decouplng elastcty values of energy-related carbon emsson and economc growth do not rse contnuously as n stage I, fluctuatng n therangeof.82.84nstead.thats,theenergy-related carbon emsson and economc growth n Guangdong do not realze redecouplng effectvely and ths s manly attrbuted to the followng two aspects. One s the pressure of energy conservaton and emsson reducton. Our naton started to deploy the energy conservaton and emsson reducton n 25. Guangdong postvely responds to the call and formulates the target to drop the energy consumpton per unt GDP by 16% durng the 11th fve-year plan compared to that n 25. The work on energy conservaton and emsson reducton has acheved good results by elmnatng laggng productve capacty and shuttng down part of hgh energy consumpton factores such as small thermal power and cement plant. Our government promsed to reduce CO 2 emsson per unt GDP by 4% 45%n22comparedtothatn25nCopenhagen Clmate Change Conference n 29. All of these lmt the rapd ncrease n carbon emsson of Guangdong, combned wth the rse of the techncal level of Guangdong, and strong decouplng state of energy ntensty s stronger (Fgure 5), and all of above lmt the redecouplng of energy-related carbon emssons from economc growth. The other one s the nfluence of two urbanzatons. Decouplng elastcty values of land urbanzaton and populaton urbanzaton both show declne trend snce 25 (Fgure 5), manly because the growth speed of land urbanzaton durng the 11th fve-year plan s slower compared wth that durng the 1th fve-year plan, but stll faster than populaton urbanzaton. Growth speed of populaton urbanzaton s nearly zero durng the 11th fve-year plan (Fgure 6). Both of land urbanzaton and populaton urbanzaton play decsve roles n preventng contnuously growth of total decouplng elastcty values of energy-related carbon emsson and economc growth n stage II. We can see that slowng down the speed of both urbanzatons s good for decouplng of energy-related carbon emsson from economc growth. But development of urbanzaton s mperatve n our country, and hgh qualty urbanzaton should be populaton gatherng andlandsavngandntensveuse.speedoflandurbanzaton and populaton urbanzaton s obvously uncoordnated at ths stage. The mportant reason s that wth overdependence on land and real estate by economc development and local fnance, the towns expand fast n space, and the farmlands are encroached by urbanzaton, but due to the restrcton of household regstraton polcy n Guangdong, many farmers cannot become real urban resdents of modern cty though ther land are requstoned for urbanzaton. Ths reflects that what the urbanzaton of Guangdong pursut s stll rapd expanson of space and spread development n ths stage. So coordnatng the development speed of land urbanzaton and populaton urbanzaton wll have great sgnfcance to the constructon of new urbanzaton n our country. Underthecombnedactonoftheabovetwoaspects, the energy-related carbon emsson and economc growth mantan relatve stable expanson couplng state from 25 to Conclusons and Polcy Implcaton 4.1. Conclusons. Based on the extended Kaya dentty and Tapo decouplng model, the decouplng elastcty decomposton quanttatve model of energy-related carbon emsson n Guangdong s establshed wth the Logarthmc Mean Dvsa Index (LMDI) method and nfluence factors of decouplng between carbon emssons and economc growth energy are decomposed nto eght factors and urbanzaton factors are ncluded nto the decouplng model for the frst tme. Man results show that total producton energy-related carbon emsson n Guangdong shows ncreasng trend from 1995 to 211, ncrease from tc n 1995 to tc n 211. Decouplng elastcty values of energy-related carbon emsson and economc growth show ncreasng trend from 1996 to 211, and ts decouplng state turns to expansve couplng n from the weak decouplng n Land economc output and energy ntensty are the frst nhbtng factor and frst promotng factor to energyrelated carbon emsson decouplng from economc growth, respectvely. The development speeds of land urbanzaton and populaton urbanzaton, especally land urbanzaton, play decsve roles n the change of decouplng elastcty values. Guangdong cannot realze decouplng of energyrelated carbon emsson from economc growth n a short tme and there s a long way to go to mplement low carbon provnce constructon n Guangdong Polcy Implcaton and Suggestons. There s a long way to go for Guangdong to realze decouplng of energyrelated carbon emsson from economc growth from the above analyss. Although Guangdong took many measures to carbon emssons reducton, for example, elmnatng laggngproductvecapactyandshuttngdownpartofhgh energy consumpton factores such as small thermal power and cement plant n the 11th fve-year plan perod, these measures are not sustanable. The authors hold that there are four most effectve measures to realze decouplng of energy-related carbon emsson from economy growth for

10 1 The Scentfc World Journal Guangdong accordng to analyss results and dscusson n Secton 3 and the current stuaton that Guangdong s facng. (1) Adustng Energy Mx to Accelerate the Development of Low Carbon New Energy. Its subtropcal martme clmate characterstcs make Guangdong rch n solar energy, wnd energy, bomass energy, oceanc energy, and other new energy resources, and t s endowed wth broad space and potental to develop and utlze low carbon energy sources. The bomass energy s an mportant renewable energy source, whch has become the world s fourth-largest energy. The offshore area wth eutrophcaton s an mportant advantage to develop the bomass energy for Guangdong. Ths can govern the red tde and acqure the energy and generate carbon snk. Therefore, Guangdong should pay more attenton to the research on marne bomass energy and accelerate the progress of ts development and utlzaton. (2) Adustng the Industral Structure to Accelerate Development of the Tertary Industry. Thendustryhasbeenturn nto heavy chemcal ndustry snce 24, whch has greatly promoted the development of economc n Guangdong. However, the ndustral structure s not benefcal to reduce thecarbonemssonncreasngly,andthecurrentndustral structure level s not good for decouplng of carbon emsson from economc growth. The development space of the tertary ndustry s huge, so Guangdong can accelerate ts development by developng the modern servce ndustry to provde strong drvng force for optmzaton and upgradng of ndustral structure, takng educaton and toursm as a new economc growth pont, provdng guarantee for the development of the thrd ndustry from nsttutonal, envronmental, andthelaw.andfnallymprovethendustralstructurelevel andrealzethecarbonemssonreducton. (3) Coordnatng the Development Speed of Land Urbanzaton and Populaton Urbanzaton. The urbanzaton s mperatve n our country, but hgh qualty urbanzaton should be populaton gatherng and land savng and ntensve use. At present, there exst uncoordnated problems between development speed of the two urbanzatons, land urbanzaton faster than populaton urbanzaton. The development speeds of land urbanzaton and populaton urbanzaton, especally land urbanzaton,playdecsverolesnthechangeofdecouplng elastcty values, so the speeds of the two urbanzatons should be optmzed properly by the followng two measures. On the one hand, mprove the utlzaton effcency of land, and adopt tougher land red lne and ecologcal lne, makes the land use cannot be changed easly. On the other hand, formulate reasonable settlng condton and regulate house prce, makes t be conducve to the realzaton of hgh-qualty urbanzaton and to the decouplng of carbon emsson from economc growth. (4) Explorng Potental of Carbon Snk and Intensfyng Carbon Snk Constructon. The total carbon emssons are stll ncreasng due to the promoton of economc development and urbanzaton, and the emsson reducton role of adustment of energy mx and ndustral structure cannot beplayedntheshorttme.thus,explorngthecarbon snk potentals s very mportant. It s an effectve measure to plant the green manures n wnter to absorb CO 2 and reduce chemcal fertlzer and mprove sol and enhance land capacty.thecarbonsnkfunctonofshrublandsstronger and t can ncrease the areas of shrub land through closng hll sdes to facltate afforestaton [38]. Conflct of Interests The authors declare that there s no conflct of nterests regardng the publcaton of ths paper. Acknowledgments The authors gratefully acknowledge The Energy Foundaton- The Chna Sustanable Energy Program (no. G ) and Mnstry of Educaton n Chna (MOE ) Proect of Humantes and Socal Scences (no. 13YJAZH22). References [1] Intergovernmental Panel on Clmate Change (IPCC), Clmate change 27: the physcal scence bass, [2] E. M. Hamn and N. 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