MEXICO. La Reforma Milestones and Upcoming Opportunities

Transcription

1 MEXICO La Reforma Milestones and Upcoming Opportunities

2 ENERGY REFORM OF 2013 Pemex monopoly on exploration and production was ended Multiple regulatory entities were created CNH, CENAGAS, ASEA, CRE, etc. Round Zero Pemex was allowed to keep 83% of Mexico s proven reserves and 21% of prospective resources Migration of service contracts (CIEP, COPF) into licensing and production sharing agreements 10 bid rounds have occurred, 107 blocks have been awarded Source: CNH GLJ PETROLEUM CONSULTANTS 2

3 THERE HAVE BEEN 10 BID ROUNDS WITH VARYING DEGREES OF SUCCESS CNH Bidding Round Summary Blocks awarded, success rate % % 100% 100% % 80% 67% 70% 66% 75% 80% 60% % 40% 5 14% 20% 0 Projected Investments (MMUSD) Round 1.1 Round 1.2 Round 1.3 Round 1.4 Round 2.1 Round 2.2 Round 2.3 Round 2.4 Round 3.1 Pemex Farmouts Awarded Not Assigned Success% 2,870 3,250 1,044 34,350 8,190 1, NA NA 9,250 0% Source: CNH GLJ PETROLEUM CONSULTANTS 3

4 WHY IS MEXICO ATTRACTING INTEREST? CHIHUAHUA BURRO PICACHOS SABINAS Prospective Basins Productive Basins Basins with unconventional potential BURGOS TAMPICO MISANTLA VERACRUZ GLJ PETROLEUM CONSULTANTS Modified from Davies T.L. 2015

5 EXAMPLE - VERACRUZ BASIN VERACRUZ Onshore Offshore Multiple reservoirs Clastics and carbonates Multiple trap styles Structural and Stratigraphic Traps GLJ PETROLEUM CONSULTANTS From CNH Geological Atlas, Veracruz Basin 2016

6 PRODUCTION HISTORY Oil Production by asset Bbl/d Source: CNH GLJ PETROLEUM CONSULTANTS 6

7 NOT ONLY OIL US Natural gas exports to Mexico MMcf/d Henry Hub vs. Mexico Natural Gas Price Index (IPGN) USD/MMbtu Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 Henry Hub IPGN Source: EIA, SENER, CNH GLJ PETROLEUM CONSULTANTS 7

8 GOVERNMENT TAKE HAS ALSO VARIED SIGNIFICANTLY Average government take / additional royalty 80% 70% Farmout 60% 50% License 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 62% 76% 47% 14% 57% 24% 35% 46% 16% 13% 13% Production Sharing Contract 4% Bonus Payments (MMUSD) Source: CNH GLJ PETROLEUM CONSULTANTS 8

9 POLITICS Three Amigos Still? Todavía Tres Amigos? GLJ PETROLEUM CONSULTANTS 9

10 KEY REGULATORY ENTITIES Ministry of Energy National Hydrocarbon Commission Ministry of Finance Energy Regulator Safety and Environment Agency Establishes O&G policy Selects upstream zones for bids Regulates E&P activities Prepares and executes public bids Compiles and reports O&G reserves Establishes fiscal terms for E&P contracts Defines midstream rates Issues permits for fuel transport and sale Regulates and supervises industrial safety and environmental protection GLJ PETROLEUM CONSULTANTS 10

11 POST-REFORM DRILLING HIGHLIGHTS Area 1, Round wells drilled 2 billion boe in-place estimate 2P Reserves (MMboe): Area 7, Round 1.1 Zama discovery 1.42 to 2 billion barrels of oil in-place YE YE Area 1, Round wells drilled 2 billion boe in-place estimate 2P Reserves (MMboe): YE 2017 YE Source: CNH, ENI, Hokchi, Sierra OG GLJ PETROLEUM CONSULTANTS 11

12 NEW LOCAL PLAYERS HAVE EMERGED FROM INDUSTRIAL CONGLOMERATES, INSTITUTIONAL INVESTORS AND INTERNATIONAL PARTNERSHIPS GLJ PETROLEUM CONSULTANTS 12

13 ADDITIONAL OPPORTUNITIES 2019 AND BEYOND CNH 5-Year Plan Shallow Water 112 blocks 43,160 km 2 Deep Water 112 blocks 143,370 km 2 Onshore Conventional 127 blocks 22,800 km 2 Onshore Unconventional 185 blocks 53,080 km 2 GLJ PETROLEUM CONSULTANTS 13

14 UPCOMING OPPORTUNITIES IN MEXICO CNH Round 3.2 Onshore 2018 Pemex Farmouts Conventional CNH Round 3.3 Onshore Unconventional GLJ PETROLEUM CONSULTANTS 14

15 2018 PEMEX FARMOUTS AT A GLANCE General Areas and Data Packages 7 farmout opportunities 22 producing fields and 9 exploration areas 1P reserves 1 of 241 MMboe Oil production 2 of 40.6 Mbbl/d Gas production 2 of 224 MMcf/d 2 companies have accessed the data room Cinco Presidentes Bacal-Nelash Lacamango Bedel-Gasífero Artesa Giraldas-Sunuapa Juspi-Teotleco Cinco Presidentes Veracruz Macuspana-Muspac Fiscal Terms Source: CNH, GLJ 1. As of January 1, February, % Working Interest Sliding scale base royalty Proponents bid on additional royalty Additional payment 30% corporate tax 16% VAT Leaseholder tax ($/km 2 ) GLJ PETROLEUM CONSULTANTS 15

16 CINCO PRESIDENTES DATA PACKAGE Area Bacal Nelash Cinco Presidentes Lacamango Fields Geological Province Geological Age Rock Types Arroyo Prieto, Bacal, Nelash, Tiumut Middle Miocene, Lower Pliocene Cinco Presidentes, Rodador Salina del Istmo Upper Miocene Sandstones Lacamango Upper Miocene, Middle-Lower Miocene Prod. Area (km 2 ) Exp. Area (km 2 ) Reservoir Fluid Black Oil, Volatile Oil Black Oil Black Oil API Gravity P Reserves 1 (MMboe) Median Prospective Resources (MMboe) Oil Production 2 (bbl/d) 2,275 7, Gas Production 2 (Mcf/d) 4,194 10, Source: Pemex, CNH, GLJ 1. As of January 1, February, 2018 GLJ PETROLEUM CONSULTANTS 16

17 CINCO PRESIDENTES PRODUCTION Oil Equivalent Production boe/d Source: CNH, GLJ GLJ PETROLEUM CONSULTANTS 17

18 RECENT PERFORMANCE Cinco Presidentes normalized production per well ( ) Bbl/day/well 60 months of production Source: CNH, GLJ GLJ PETROLEUM CONSULTANTS 18

19 VERACRUZ DATA PACKAGE Area Fields Bedel-Gasífero Bedel, Gasífero, Eltreinta, Tesechoacan-02 (exp) Geological Province Geological Age Rock types Veracruz Middle Miocene Sandstones and Shales Prod. Area (km 2 ) 82.2 Exp. Area (km 2 ) 1,168.1 Reservoir Fluid Black Oil API Gravity 28 1P Reserves 1 (MMboe) 90.2 Median Prospective Resources (MMboe) 223 Oil Production 2 (bbl/d) 14,091 Gas Production 2 (Mcf/d) 82,060 Source: Pemex, CNH, GLJ 1. As of January 1, February, 2018 GLJ PETROLEUM CONSULTANTS 19

20 BEDEL-GASÍFERO PRODUCTION Oil Equivalent Production boe/d Source: CNH, GLJ GLJ PETROLEUM CONSULTANTS 20

21 RECENT PERFORMANCE Bedel-Gasífero normalized production per well ( ) Bbl/day/well 60 months of production Source: CNH, GLJ GLJ PETROLEUM CONSULTANTS 21

22 MACUSPANA-MUSPAC DATA PACKAGE Area Artesa Giraldas-Sunuapa Juspi-Teotleco Fields Geological Province Geological Age Rock Types Artesa, Nispero, Sitio Grande, Rio Nuevo, Gaucho, Mezcalapa 08 Middle Cretaceous, Miocene, Pliocene Sandstone, Carbonates Chiapas-Copano, Comoapa, Giraldas, Muspac, Sunuapa, Mezcalapa 04, Grijalva 01 Reforma/Akal Uplift Upper and Middle Cretaceous, Miocene Carbonates Juspi, Teotleco, Mezcalapa 07 (exp) Upper and Middle Cretaceous, Miocene, Pliocene Carbonates Prod. Area (km 2 ) Exp. Area (km 2 ) , Reservoir Fluid Black oil Black oil, volatile Volatile oil and gas oil, condensates condensates API Gravity P Reserves 1 (MMboe) Median Prospective Resources (MMboe) Oil Production 2 (bbl/d) 4,591 6,465 4,765 Gas Production 2 (Mcf/d) 6,045 77,100 43,490 Source: Pemex, CNH, GLJ 1. As of January 1, February, 2018 GLJ PETROLEUM CONSULTANTS 22

23 ARTESA PRODUCTION Oil Equivalent Production boe/d Source: CNH, GLJ GLJ PETROLEUM CONSULTANTS 23

24 RECENT PERFORMANCE Artesa normalized production per well ( ) Bbl/day/well 60 months of production Source: CNH, GLJ GLJ PETROLEUM CONSULTANTS 24

25 GIRALDAS-SUNUAPA PRODUCTION Oil Equivalent Production boe/d Source: CNH, GLJ GLJ PETROLEUM CONSULTANTS 25

26 CNH ROUND 3.2 SNAPSHOT 37 blocks primarily exploratory 21 in Burgos basin 9 in Tampico-Misantla-Veracruz 7 in Sureste basin P50 Unrisked Prospective resources 320 MMboe in Burgos gas play 174 MMboe in TMV heavy oil and gas 123 MMboe in Sureste light oil and gas Fiscal Terms Production license Minimum sliding scale royalty 30% corporate tax 16% VAT Leaseholder tax ($/km2) Proponents bid on additional royalty plus minimum work commitment Source: CNH, GLJ GLJ PETROLEUM CONSULTANTS 26

27 3.2 AREA 1 SURESTE MACUSPANA Possible Analog Agave Field Light Oil and gas 1.18 Tcf MMbbl cum production MMboe 1P reserves 1 Source: Pemex, CNH, GLJ 1. As of January 1, 2017 GLJ PETROLEUM CONSULTANTS 27

28 3.2 AREA 2 SURESTE CUENCA SALINA Possible Analog Lacamango Field Medium oil and gas 50.5 Bcf + 31 MMbbl cum production MMboe 1P reserves 1 Source: Pemex, CNH, GLJ 1. As of January 1, 2017 GLJ PETROLEUM CONSULTANTS 28

29 3.2 AREA 3 - VERACRUZ Possible Analog Cauchy Field Dry gas 396 Bcf cum production Bcf 1P reserves 1 Source: Pemex, CNH, GLJ 1. As of January 1, 2017 GLJ PETROLEUM CONSULTANTS 29

30 3.2 AREA 4 - VERACRUZ Possible Analog Copite Field Dry gas 395 Bcf cum production Bcf 1P reserves 1 Source: Pemex, CNH, GLJ 1. As of January 1, 2017 GLJ PETROLEUM CONSULTANTS 30

31 3.2 AREA 5 TAMPICO MISANTLA Possible Analog Muro Field Heavy oil 16.5 MMbbl cum production 1 (20 wells) 45 Mbbl 1P reserves 1 Source: Pemex, CNH, GLJ 1. As of January 1, 2017 GLJ PETROLEUM CONSULTANTS 31

32 3.2 AREA 6 - BURGOS Possible Analog Cuitlahuac Field Dry gas Bcf cum production Bcf 1P reserves 1 Source: Pemex, CNH, GLJ 1. As of January 1, 2017 GLJ PETROLEUM CONSULTANTS 32

33 CNH ROUND 3.3 SNAPSHOT 7 unconventional blocks in Burgos First unconventional auction in Mexico P50 Unrisked Prospective resources 3,318 MMboe dry and liquids-rich gas Fiscal Terms Production license Minimum sliding scale royalty 30% corporate tax 16% VAT Leaseholder tax ($/km2) Proponents bid on additional royalty plus minimum work commitment Lower maximum additional royalties expected to incentivize development Source: CNH, GLJ GLJ PETROLEUM CONSULTANTS 33

34 BID PREQUALIFICATION AND DEADLINES Financial Requirements US$ 100 million in shareholder equity or US$ 500 million in assets (operators) US$ 50 million in shareholder equity (non-operators) Operational Requirements Operators must demonstrate operational capability For Pemex farmouts there are minimum rate requirements depending on the area For 3.2 and 3.3 operators must demonstrate experience in exploration programs of over US$ 250 million and US$ 100 million respectively Data room fees Minimum of MX$ 1,000,000 (C$ ~60,000) for 3.2 and 3.3 MX$ 2,645,000 (C$ ~170,000) per farmout package Prequalification fee of MX$ 898,000 ($C ~55,000) Prequalification deadline July 10 for 3.2 and 3.3 August 17 for Pemex farmouts Bid date September 27 for 3.2 and 3.3 October 31 for Pemex farmouts GLJ PETROLEUM CONSULTANTS 34

35 MEXICO IS: Attractive Geologically Replete with opportunities Small to very large players Solo or with Mexican partners Exploration to field rejuvenation Established to new technology Politically mature Offering upcoming opportunities in 2018: Pemex Farmouts Rounds 3.2 and 3.3 GLJ PETROLEUM CONSULTANTS 35

36 4100, 400 3rd Ave SW Calgary AB T2P 4H2 Canada THANK YOU LEONARD HERCHEN VP International GRAHAM SIMPSON Manager Geosciences ARMANDO MONTES Manager, Latin America GABRIEL OLIVARES Reservoir Engineer