DISTRIBUTED ENERGY RESOURCES

Transcription

1 DISTRIBUTED ENERGY RESOURCES William F Tyndall November 2016 Dialogue. Insight. Solutions.

2 GLOBAL ENERGY CHALLENGES 1.1 billion live without access to electricity 1 billion people live without reliable electric grid Overall demand expected to increase by 40% by 2030 Climate goals require substantial decarbonization of electricity supply which account for 75% of global GHG emissions Aging power plants and distribution infrastructure Changing customer expectations Per IEA: price tag for decarbonization of electricity generation by 2050 $44Trillion Needed energy efficiency $23 trillion 1

3 INDC S AND ENERGY Discussion of Energy in INDCs 147 mentioned renewable energy 74 outline specific goals for renewable power, heating, cooling, transport 167 mentione energy efficiency Existing Targets at end of 2015: 173 countries had renewable energy targets 47 countries had renewable heating/cooling targets 66 countries had biofuel mandates for transportation INDC Effects IEA: NDCs will slow energy GHG emissions dramatically, not halt growth Increase in renewables offset by global increase in power demand power sector CO 2 emissions flat through 2030 CCAP 2

4 ENERGY SECTOR CO2 EMISSIONS GROWTH SINCE 1990 Source: IEA Briefing for COP21 (October 2015) CCAP 3

5 ENERGY TRANSFORMATION: AN HISTORIC OPPORTUNITY Global Commitment Climate Finance Technology Advancements Paris lays the groundwork for ambitious country action Public and private capital waiting for deployment Declining costs and rising efficiency of technology CCAP 4

6 DISTRIBUTED ENERGY RESOURCES CCAP 5

7 THE DER TRANSFORMATION Smart Controls & Analytics Cloud Computing & Communication Distributed Energy Resources Low-cost sensors Machine-to-machine controls Algorithm-based automation Data streaming 24/7 Wi-Fi, broadband, 4G, 5G, XG & mobile devices Government support Scaling of manufacturing Electric cars spurring battery technology 6

8 DISTRIBUTED ENERGY: 35% CAPACITY GROWTH OVER 3 YEARS IN UNITED STATES US cumulative capacity growth CCAP 7

9 GLOBAL PV MARKET CONTINUES TO GROW AS MORE COUNTRIES REACH RETAIL PARITY CCAP 8 Source: Duke Energy, CCAP Energy Dialogue, California, 2015

10 BATTERIES AND ENERGY AUTOMATION SOLUTIONS ARE READY TO BE DEPLOYED Lithium-ion battery costs expected to fall by 50% over next 5 years Controls and sensors market in the U.S. and Europe is expected to expand by 18% annually between now and 2020 LEDs getting cheaper and more efficient CCAP 9

11 DER IN A COMMERCIAL BUILDING Value to customer: Reduced energy costs Reduced demand charges Emergency power $$$$ for net energy produced $$$$ for demand reduction $$$$ for ancillary services to grid 10

12 STORAGE FOR COMMERCIAL CUSTOMERS Demand management software combined with storage hardware Automated demand reduction Solar smoothing Grid support 11

13 DISTRIBUTED ENERGY BENEFITS Lower carbon emissions Solar and energy efficiency = zero CO2 emissions One study: Major California city could decrease carbon emissions by 70% by growing DER by 2% per year System benefits Reduced transmission losses Grid Support Greater resiliency Cheap and clean electrification Reduced Consumer Costs Customer Choice 12

14 DER AND RESILIENCY Risks Power outages business interruptions $20-$55 billion annual losses in US Flooding: generating facilities, substations Wind storms: downed power lines Drought: limited water for power plant cooling Heat: fires disrupt grid, increase demand for A/C Opportunities for Green Resilience Energy efficiency GHGs grid overload, maintain continuity Microgrids, on-site renewables, CHP GHGs resilience limit impact of storms and provide business continuity Water use efficiency (power plant & public) energy, GHGs Less dependent on water for cooling CCAP 13

15 BARRIERS FOR DER REMAIN THAT REQUIRE ADDRESSING AS PART OF INDC CONVERSION OECD 2011 The types and magnitude of barriers faced by a country will depend on their domestic fossil fuel resources and RE potential CCAP 14

16 INDC CONVERSION IS OPPORTUNITY TO IMPLEMENT EFFECTIVE POLICY THAT WILL DRIVE INVESTMENT RANGE OF POLICY OPTIONS TO PROMOTE DER Financial Incentive Policies: Feed-in Tariffs (FITs) Tendering, reverse auctions Tax policies Net metering Regulatory Policies Renewable Portfolio/Clean Energy Standards Cap & Trade, carbon pricing Enabling environment for RE ideally should address on-grid, off-grid, and distributed generation as well as key barriers CCAP 15

17 TO OVERCOME BARRIERS, COUNTRIES HAVE STARTED TO SET TARGETS Global Renewable Energy Targets by Sector, CCAP 16 Source: IRENA, Renewable Energy Target Setting, 2015

18 ADDING TARGETS TO THE INDC IS A GOOD WAY TO ATTRACT ATTENTION TO THE DOMESTIC MARKET Many countries mentioned RE targets in their INDCs: China 800 GW by 2020 India 175 GW by 2022 Brazil 89% of power mix by % non-hydro Namibia 70% of power mix by 2030 Vanuatu 65% of power mix by 2020,100% by 2030 Map: Countries which have submitted their INDC CCAP 17 Source: Map from World Resources Institute, CAIT Climate Data, 2015

19 SUCCESS STORIES: CALIFORNIA S POLICY MIX Enabling environment full range of policy actions over time Ratcheting up RPS (utility procurement requirement) 2002: 20% of retail sales from RE by : accelerated 20% deadline to : 33% RE by : 50% RE/clean energy by 2030 Interconnection with neighboring states: allowing utilities to trade energy to balance out supply and demand fluctuations Renewable Auction Mechanism: competitive bidding for DG projects 3-20 MW Net Energy Metering : allows for compensation for excess generation DG Goal: 12,000 MW by 2020 (5,200 MW of DG currently online) CO2 cap and trade includes utilities: encourages utilities to shift toward RE, includes out-of-state power purchases CCAP 18

20 CALIFORNIA CA has more than doubled installed RE capacity over the last four years, adding over 11,000 MW (out of 21,000 MW currently online) CCAP 19

21 SUCCESS STORIES: DENMARK AND DISTRIBUTED ENERGY Denmark s transition from central power stations (90% imported oil in 1980s) to distributed CHP (providing 47% of the country s thermal electricity demand) and wind Source: Parbo, Energinet.dk. Distributed Generation Trends and Regulation: The Danish Experience. CCAP 20

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