Study on the initial allocation of carbon emission permits in the. provinces of China based on Shapley method

Transcription

1 Study on the initil lloction of crbon emission permits in the provinces of Chin bsed on Shpley method Mu Hilin1, Hung Yuxun1,, Li Nn1, Xue Zhoqun1, LI Longxi1 1805, College of Energy nd Power Engineering, Dlin University of Technology, Dlin , Chin. Key words: Crbon emissions, Initil lloction, Grvity model, Shpley method Abstrct. In Chin, the initil lloction of crbon emission permits in different provinces is n importnt issue. It is not only relted to whether Chin cn chieve the crbon emission reduction trgets, but lso the estblishment of ntionl totl control nd crbon emissions trding mrket. The coopertion between different provinces nd cities cn lso be more effective in reducing crbon emissions in Chin. Therefore pln should be put forwrd bout how to llocte the quot of crbon emissions in Chin for supporting nd promoting coopertion between provinces. For such purpose, this rticle use the Grvity model nd Shpley vlue method to estimte the distribution of 2020 crbon emissions quot relloction in eight different res of Chin. The results show tht: for different res, the economic fctors, popultion effects, geogrphicl positions nd collbortive crbon reductions should be considered firly nd resonbly to rellocte crbon emission quots. The results of this pper cn provide importnt informtion nd method for decision mkers to estblish fir nd resonble crbon-permit mrket in Chin. Introduction Globl wrming is one of the most serious environmentl problems in the world tody. Along with the climte chnging nd the temperture rising, lot of countries re wre of the dmge cused by the crbon dioxide nd other greenhouse gs emissions. Therefore, mny countries hve been mking efforts to reduce greenhouse gs emissions by vriety of wys. In the developing countries like Chin, with rpid economic growth, the emissions of crbon dioxide re incresing yer by yer. Mny developed countries restrict Chin's economic growth nd tke Chin more obligtions to reduce crbon emissions. Under current bckground, the government must combine with its own economy, resources nd environment to estblish resonble crbon dioxide emission reduction policy. Only in this wy cn Chin in gurntee the stble economic growth nd sustinble development of our country under the premise of response to interntionl pressure. In the process of the implementtion of the crbon dioxide emission reduction mesures in Chin, there exists problem: In different regions of Chin, how much is the emission reductions in wide rnge of industries nd how to llocte the existing crbon emissions nd crbon emission reduction trgets resonbly, firly nd efficiently. Mny reserchers hve been studied the problem of crbon emissions initil lloction. This pper is minly bout the methods of crbon emissions initil lloction. In Chin, the initil lloction of crbon emissions is mostly free distribution, nd uction lloction only be crried out in pilot cities grdully. Chen et l. put forwrd two kinds of mixed crbon lloction mechnism The uthors - Published by Atlntis Press0390 1

2 for firness nd efficiency. Both the popultion nd GDP fctors weighted lloction method nd the GDP penlty fctor method bsed on the popultion hve strengths nd weknesses. Different reduction rte nd ech country s crbon trding costs under the four kinds of crbon credit lloction mechnism ws compred. And they held tht the optiml choice is the popultion nd GDP punishment fctor weighted hybrid distribution method. Chen lso suggested tht the crbon trding cn relieve the impct of economic production to chieve emission reduction trgets[1]. Mrco nd others studied the quntittive distribution of crbon emission rights from the culturl perspective. They lso considered the crbon emissions, energy use, popultion, technology nd economic growth fctor. And their reserch bout the perspective of regionl crbon emission rights lloction hs lot of impct in the future[2]. Dun et l. proposed tht the distribution of the centrl government to the enterprise quot lloction cn mke the centrl government's power too concentrted. The ggregtion method nd decomposition method, nd present regionl djustment coefficient to djust the quot lloction mount were suggested[3]. This pper tkes into ccount the domestic regionl combintion of difference between different regions nd crbon flow, nd studied on the initil distribution of crbon emissions in the province of Chin bsed on Shpley method. Principles nd Methods This rticle clcultes eight kinds of consumption of energy, including col, coke, crude oil, fuel oil, gsoline, kerosene, diesel nd nturl gs. Considering the crbon oxidtion rte, we cn use the method from the IPCC[4] nd Liu Zhu[5] to clculte different kinds of energy crbon emission coefficient s Eq. (1), nd ccording to the coefficient of crbon dioxide emissions nd Chin energy sttisticl yerbook, the crbon dioxide emissions of the thirty provinces nd cities of Chin cn be clculted by Eq. (2). COEi CVi CVCi CORi (1) j j C Ei COEi (2) Where COE mens the coefficient of crbon dioxide emissions, i mens the different vrieties of energy, CV mens the verge low clorific vlue, CVC mens the verge low clorific vlue, nd COR mens crbon oxidtion rte, C mens the crbon dioxide emissions, E mens the energy consumption, j mens the different vrieties of provinces nd cities. Becuse of our country rpid economic growth in recent yers, the crbon emissions quot is overvlued ccording to the intensity of crbon emission reduction trget of 40%-45%. Therefore, ccording to the requirement of the ntionl twelfth five-yer pln we ssume the Chin's GDP growth for 8% nd the intensity of crbon emission reduction trget for 40%. With reference to the clssifiction of energy consumption dt of 30 provinces nd cities of the Chinese energy sttistics yerbook 2006, it cn be clculted tht the crbon dioxide from the burning of The uthors - Published by Atlntis Press0391 2

3 fossil fuel emissions in 2005 is billion tons, nd the crbon dioxide emissions trget in 2020 should be billion tons. With reference to the clcultion method of Du[6], it is esy to get the distributed result of cities nd provinces of crbon emissions quot by historicl cumultive method s shown in figure 1. Becuse of Chongqing historicl dt is not complete nd it s prt of Sichun province before 1997, Chongqing cn be merged in Sichun province. Tble 1. Different kinds of energy coefficient of crbon dioxide emissions. Energy CV CVC COR COE Col Coke Crude oil Fuel oil Gsoline Kerosene Diesel Nturl gs Fig. 1. The provincil history ssignment crbon quots in 2020 According to the geogrphy reltions, crbon emissions nd GDP dt, the twenty-nine provinces nd utonomous regions cn be divide into eight res by the methods of He[7] nd Zhng[8] s shown in Tble 2. They re Northest, Beijing-Tinjin, Northern, Estern, Southern, Centrl region, Northwest, Southwest. It is importnt to notice tht the study don t include Hong Kong, Mco, Tiwn nd other regions due to the lck of historicl informtion nd prts of dte not vilble. In this pper, the eight regionl crbon emissions permits will be llocted nd compred. Principles nd Methods According to economic theory, regionl economy between the internl nd externl different prts The uthors - Published by Atlntis Press0392 3

4 of the joint cn more effectively control the crbon emissions. In this pper, we tke the grvity model to clculte nd evlute the connection vlue bout the regionl economy nd emissions reduction. And it cn reflect the regionl mutul bsorption effect nd rdition effect. For the different regions of nd b, we clculte the vlue of regionl correltion coefficient Rb ccording to Eq. (3). R ( P C P C ) / D (3) 2 b b b b where P nd Pb re the popultion size of region nd b in 2020 respectively, C nd Cb re the bsic crbon quots of region nd b in 2020, Db is the distnce between region nd b. And the vlue of Rb re shown in the following Tble 3. Tble 2. Chin's eight regionl division No. Region Provinces 1 Northest Heilongjing,Jilin,Lioing 2 Beijing-Tinjin Beijing,Tinjin 3 Northern Hebei,Shndong 4 Estern Jingsu,Shnghi,Zhejing 5 Southem Fujin,Gungdong,Hinn 6 Centrl region Shnxi,Henn,Anhui,Hubei,Hunn,Jingxi 7 Northwest Inner Mongoli,Shnxi,Ningxi,Gnsu,Qinghi,Xinjing 8 Southwest Sihun,Gungxi,Yunnn,Guizhou Tble 3. The vlue of regionl correltion coefficient (ton million ten thousnd people/km2) R Northest Beijing- Tinjin Northern Estern Southern Centrl region Northw Southw est est Northest Beijing-Tinjin Northern Estern Southern Centrl region Northwest Southwest Becuse the eight res region distnce is more difficult to clculte, so the cpitl cities in the region is clculted on the bsis of the verge distnce. The regionl popultion of 2020 cn be estimted ccording to the nturl popultion growth rte of the Chinese sttistics yerbook In Filr nd Gertner s theory[9], the regions which hve higher GDP, more crbon outflow nd bigger crbon emission joint vlue should be given more crbon emission room. Bsed on the grvity model, we estimte the regionl joint crbon emissions S(Ax) s Eq. (4) nd Eq. (5). R R (, b 1, 2,3,, 8). (4) b b The uthors - Published by Atlntis Press0393 4

5 x R S( A ) GDP Q ( 100%) (5) b x x x A A, b A R where R is the totl externl crbon reduction connection of region nd reflects the degree of the region's crbon emission reduction connection to others, Q is the crbon outflow of region to other seven regions in It should be noted tht this pper employs the input output method to clculte the inter-regionl crbon outflows, bsed on the Input Output Tble 2007 of Chin provinces with eight regions nd forty-two sectors nd the method of He[10]. In Eq. (5), we set the Chin's regionl GDP growth hypothesis for 7% for the thirteenth five-yer stte pln requirement. Then we set A= [A1, A2, A3, A4, A5, A6, A7, A8] representing eight res, nd Ax is A regionl combintion x in eight res of subsets. Bsed on the Shpley vlue method[11], we cn get the crbon dioxide quot lloction proportion coefficient Φ() through the Eq. (6), Eq. (7), Eq. (8). ( s 1)!( n s)! w = n! (6) x x M w S( A ) S( A /{ }) (7) M ( ) M (8) where w is the weighting fctor, n is the number of regions, nd n=8 in Eq. (6), s is the number of re in regionl subset A. M is the Shpley vlue of region. It is importnt to note tht this rticle ssumes tht the deprtments of provinces nd cities hve the sme crbon intensity growth rtio, so the crbon intensity of benchmrk yer does not ffect the results in Eq. (5). Results nd Discussion Bsed on the Grndfther method nd the Shpley vlue method, we cn obtin the results of eight res of our country crbon quot lloction s shown in Tble 4.As for the Shpley vlue method, ll of internl economic, regionl crbon outflow nd regionl position re tken into ccount. The lloction results re different from the Grndfther method. From the globl perspective, Northern, Estern, Southern nd Centrl region get 64.33% of the totl crbon emissions, nd it is more thn the 35.67% of Northest, Beijing-Tinjin, Northwest nd Southwest significntly. Becuse of geogrphy fctors nd negtive popultion growth, the distribution of the Northest region is only 8.56%, nd it decreses by 2.74% compred with the result of the Grndfther method. Becuse of geogrphy fctors nd negtive popultion growth. But Beijing-Tinjin get 7.17% for its fst growing economy, nd it incresed by 4.39%. Due to Estern nd Southern hve bigger crbon outflow, they shre more crbon emission room s 16.26% nd 12.82%. In ddition, it is importnt to enhnce regionl coopertion to chieve mutul trgets by considering the dvntge of geogrphicl position nd rdition effect. For this reson, Centrl region nd Northern should give more crbon emission rights. Tble 4 Alloction results by the Grndfther method nd Shpley method The uthors - Published by Atlntis Press0394 5

6 Nme North est Beijing-Tinji n Northern Estern Southern Centrl region North west South west Crbon outflow(%) GDP(%) Grndfther method(%) Shpley vlue method(%) In the thirteenth five-yer pln, the government of Chin lso puts the crbon dioxide emissions s the binding forces indictors. To chieve mount nd strength of the double control is not only emboding the sense of responsibility nd mission s developing country, but lso new beginning of crbon emissions control. In this pper, the totl emissions control nd historicl cumultive emissions re tken into ccount, nd the results show tht the joint difference between different res in our country. In the future, it is needed to consider more fctors bout the distribution, including firness, historicl responsibility nd economic fctors, nd so on. Moreover, it is lso long wy to build the complete nd perfect the system of distribution of crbon quots. Acknowledgements The uthors grtefully cknowledge the finncil support from the Ntionl Nturl Science Foundtion of Chin ( ). This reserch hs lso been supported by the Fundmentl Reserch Funds for the Centrl Universities (DUT14RC(3)151) nd Chin Postdoctorl Science Foundtion (2015M571309). References [1] Chen Wenying, Wu Zongxin, Crbon emission permit lloction nd trding. Journl of Tsinghu University (Sci&Tech) 12(1998) [2] Mrco Jnssen, Jn Rotmns, Alloction of fossil CO2 emission rights quntifying culturl perspectives. Ecologicl Economics 13(1995) [3] Dun Mosheng, Png To, Key Issues in Allownce Alloction in Chin s Future Unified Ntionl Emissions Trding Scheme. WUHAN UNIVERSITY JOURNAL (Philosophy & Socil Sciences) 67(2014)5-12. [4] IPCC IPCC guidelines for ntionl greenhouse gs inventories [5] LIU Zhu GENG Yong, XUE Bing, XI Fengming, JIAO Jingbo, A Clcultion Method of CO2 Emission from Urbn Energy Consumption. Resources Science 2011, 33(7) [6] Limin Du, 2010.Impct Fctors of Chin s Crbon Dioxide Emissions Provincil Pnel Dt Anlysis. Southern economy ( 2010) [7] He Jinwu, Li Shntong, 2010.Crbon Reduction nd Regionl Economy. Mngement review Vol.22 No. 06(2010)9-16. [8] Yue-Jun Zhng, Ao-Dong Wng, Y-Bin D. Regionl lloction of crbon emission quots in Chin: Evidence from the Shpley vlue method. Energy Pollcy 74(2014) [9] Filr, J.A. Gertner, P.S A regionl lloction of world CO2 emission reductions. Mth The uthors - Published by Atlntis Press0395 6

7 Comput. Simul. 43(3-6), [10] He Ynqiu, 2012.The Mesurement nd Appliction of Industry Complete Crbon Emissions. Sttisticl Reserch (2012) [11] Shpley, L.S., A vlue for N person gmes. Annls of Mthemtics Studies, 28. Princeton University Press, Princeton, New Jersey, pp The uthors - Published by Atlntis Press0396 7