CO 2 Emission Embodied in International Trade: Evidence for China

Transcription

1 Internatonal Journal of Economcs and Fnance; Vol. 7, No. 2; 2015 ISSN X E-ISSN Publshed by Canadan Center of Scence and Educaton CO 2 Emsson Emboded n Internatonal Trade: Evdence for Chna Halng Zhang 1 1 Economc School, Shandong Normal Unversy, Jnan, Shandong, Chna Correspondence: Halng Zhang, Economc School, Shandong Normal Unversy, No.88 Wenhuadong Road, Jnan Cy, Shandong Provnce, , P.R. Chna. Tel: E-mal: zmxzhl@126.com Receved: November 6, 2014 ccepted: December 3, 2014 Onlne Publshed: January 25, 2015 do: /jef.v7n2p138 URL: bstract s the bggest developng country, Chna generate huge amount of CO 2 emssons. Some studes suggest that export trade s an mportant contrbutor to ths, and Chna has been the polluton haven for the developed countres. few developed countres also treat ths as an excuse to take measures to punsh Chna. Ths study calculates the amount of CO 2 emssons of 18 exportng ndustres n Chna usng the data from 2001 to The fndngs reveal that the amount of CO 2 emssons s the result of export volume multplyng carbon emsson per un export. Carbon emsson per un export s droppng year by year, as the total amount of CO 2 emssons s rsng year by year. s a result, the major contrbutor to huge amount of CO 2 emssons n export s the ncreasng volume of export nducng by abroad consumpton. Emprcal study also reveals that Chna has not been the polluton haven for developed countres. Keywords: CO 2 emsson amount, CO 2 emsson ntensy, export trade, polluton haven effect 1. Introducton From last century, as the rapd growng n developed and developng countres, the dependence on fossl energy nduces rsng emsson of carbon doxde and other greenhouse gases. The rsng emsson of carbon doxde leads to the envronmental polluton, clmate warmng and ecology unbalance, and has been a constrant to economc and socal sustanable development. In ths case, becomes urgent for every country to fnd a green development mode that could mprove atmospherc envronment whout hurt economc effcency. Wh the term of Low Carbon Economy was frst rased n England n 2003, many countres set off a Low Carbon Revoluton. In the post-crss era, some countres treat low carbon economy as an mportant economc growth pont, and apply multple measures to regulate carbon doxde emsson. s the bggest developng country, Chna generate huge amount of CO 2 emssons. ccordng to the IE, the total amount of CO 2 emssons caused by fossl fuel n Chna (ncludng Hong Kong) was about 0.8 bllon tons n By 2011, the emssons ncreased to about 8 bllon tons, whch accounted for 25% of the total amount n the whole world. Some studes suggest that export trade s an mportant contrbutor to ths, such as Shu and Harrss (2006), as well as Peter and Hertwch (2008). Researches n Ellott (2010), Fowle (2009) and Glen (2008) reveal that regonal carbon regulaton n developed countres wll cause emsson ntensve ndustres shftng to developng countres where are called polluton haven, such as Chna. The shftng wll nduce developng countres to ncrease emssons, whch was known as carbon leakage. The amount of CO 2 emssons n export trade s the result of export volume multplyng carbon emsson ntensy, whch s carbon emsson per un export. Even Carbon emsson ntensy s droppng year by year n Chna, the total amount of CO 2 emssons s rsng yearly. s a result, the major contrbutor to huge amount of CO 2 emssons of export n Chna s the ncreasng export volume nducng by abroad consumpton. Chna and the mporters should jontly afford the responsbly, and s not properly for the developed country take punve measures to Chna. Ths research frstly apples the nput-output (I-O) analyss to calculate the drect and ndrect CO 2 emssons ntensy for 18 ndustres n Chna. On ths bass, ths paper measures the CO 2 emssons level for 18 export ndustres from 2001 to Fnally, tests the polluton haven effect and carbon leakage effect by measurng the net exports as a proporton of consumpton (NETXC). 2. Lerature Revew I-O analyss s usually used to measure CO 2 emssons emboded n nternatonal trade. There are two knds of I-O frameworks: one s the sngle regonal I-O framework, such as researches n Machado (2001), Munksgaard 138

2 and Pedersen (2001) and Mongell (2006). The other s multregonal I-O framework, such as Shu & Harrss (2006) examne the nfluence of US-Chna trade on CO 2 emssons. They fnd that about 7% 14% of CO 2 emssons n Chna are the result of producng exports for US consumers. Peters & Hertwch (2008) measures CO 2 emssons emboded n the trade among 87 regons n 2001, fndng that the CO 2 emssons emboded n Chna export trade accounts for 24% of the total emssons volume n Chna, whle the CO 2 emssons embodes n mport trade only accounts for 7%. Most of researchers n Chna also use the I-O analyss to measure the CO 2 emssons emboded n trade, such as Q Ye (2008), Zhang Xaopng (2009) and Sun Xaoyu (2009). Ther researches suggest that the rapd growth n Chna s export trade s at the cost of huge energy consumpton and CO 2 emssons. There s a techncal problem when calculatng CO 2 emssons: how to measure the CO 2 emssons emboded n processng trade? The mportng parts of processng trade generate emssons before mportng from abroad. It wll overvalue the total amount of CO 2 emssons emboded n Chna s export trade f we do not elmnate these parts. Chen Yng (2008) and We Benyong (2009) solve ths problem by revsng the I-O analyss. Exceptng the I-O framework, some researchers also measure the CO 2 emssons by other analyss. Zhou Nanl (2007) testes the level of sustanable development n Chna s export trade from by grey cluster model. Hs research reveals that the economc benefs of export are obtaned at the cost of envronment deteroraton and resource depleton. Lu Qang (2008) uses the Lfe Cycle ssessment method to calculate the emboded energy and carbon emsson n 46 knds of export products, and fnds that the huge energy consumpton and carbon emsson are aganst to the sustanable development of Chna. 3. Model and Data Descrpton 3.1 Model Descrpton Indrect CO 2 emsson amount s the total volume of CO 2 emssons generated n the entre product chan, and reflects more complete emsson behavor n every ndustry compared to the drect CO 2 emsson amount. I-O analyss s usually used to measure the ndrect CO 2 emsson amount. We can establsh the nput and output relatonshp among economc sectors: X + Y = X (1) Where X s the total output, s the drect consumpton coeffcent matrx ( a j ) n n, aj = xj / X j (, j = 1, 2,..., n) s called drect consumpton coeffcent, and represents the outputs of sector requred as nput by sector j to produce one un of s monetary output. The X means the share of fnal output consumed as ntermedate nput. If we deduct X from X, we can get fnal output Y, whch s: 1 X ( I ) Y = (2) Where (I-) -1 s called Leontef nverse matrx. CO 2 emssons are manly generated from the consumpton of fossl energy. ccordng to the IPCC Gudelnes for natonal greenhouse Gas Inventores 2006, the equaton to calculate drect CO 2 emsson s: C = Consumpton fule α fule (3) allfuels Where C s the drect CO 2 emsson amount n sector, and Consumpton fuel s the sum of energy consumed n ths sector. The measurng uns of varous energes are converted nto standard coal. α fuel s the CO 2 emsson coeffcent of each energy, can be calculated accordng to the equaton gven by volume 2 of the IPCC Gudelnes for Natonal Greenhouse Gas Inventores. Energes of ths paper referred are as followng: crude coal, coke, crude ol, fuel ol, gasolne, kerosene and natural gas. The drect emsson ntensy s: CM = C / X (4) Where X s represented by the added value of output n each sector. If we multply CO 2 emsson ntensy by Leontef nverse matrx (I-) -1, the ndrect CO 2 emsson ntensy can be receved: TCM CM I The ndrect CO 2 emsson amount emboded n export for sector s: 1 = ( ) (5) 1 ETC = CM ( I ) EX (6) Where EX s the export volume n sector. The total amount of ndrect CO 2 emsson emboded n export for all export sectors s: 139

3 n 1 ETC = CM( I ) EX = 1 (7) In an open economy, the ntermedate nputs are not only produced domestcally, but also mported from abroad. The mported has already generated CO 2 emssons before mportng. If we do not elmnate ths part, wll overvalue the total amount of CO 2 emssons emboded n Chna s export, so here only refer to the ntermedate nputs produced domestcally. 3.2 Date Descrpton Input-output table (I-O table): In order to elmnate the mportng nputs of Leontef nverse matrx, ths paper adopts the I-O table suppled by OECD database. The research perod s from 2001 to Now, the OECD database only provde1995, 2000 and 2005 I-O table. Snce the producton technque do not change dramatcally, ths study uses prce ndex to revse I-O relatonshp for 18 sectors on the bass of 2000 and 2005 I-O table. Sectors: the 18 exportng sectors are as followng: sector 1.grculture, huntng, forestry & fshng; sector 2.Mnng & quarryng; sector 3.Food products, beverages & tobacco; sector 4.Textles, textle products, leather & footwear; sector 5.Wood & wood products; sector 6.Pulp, paper, paper product, prntng; sector 7.Coke, refned petroleum products & nuclear fuel; sector 8.Chemcals excludng pharmaceutcals; sector 9.Rubber & plastcs products; sector10.other non-metallc mneral products; sector 11.Non-ferrous metal & ferrous metal smeltng & rollng processng ndustry; sector 12.Fabrcated metal products; sector13.machnery & equpment; sector14.offce, accountng & computng machnery; sector15.electrcal machnery & apparatus; sector 16.Rado, televson & communcaton equpment; sector 17.Motor vehcles, tralers & sem-tralers; sector 8.Other manufacturng. Other data source: the data of varous energy consumpton and ndustral added value are from Chna Statstcal yearbook. 4. Emprcal Study 4.1 Indrect CO 2 Emsson Intensy for Varous Sectors ccordng to the above model, we calculate the ndrect CO 2 emsson ntensy for every sector from 2001 to 2010, and the detals are shown by table 1. In general, the ndrect CO 2 emsson ntenses for most sectors are declnng year by year. The dfferences among varous sectors are very bg. We can classfy the 18 export sectors nto three categores: hgh emsson sector whch annual average emsson ntensy s above 0.1, medum emsson sector whch annual average s between 0.06 and 0.1, low emsson sector whch annual average s below Table 1. Indrect CO 2 emsson ntensy (bllon tons/100 bllon RMB) for 18 sectors ( ) sector verage

4 4.2 CO 2 Emsson mount Emboded n Chna s Export We can also calculate the annual ndrect CO 2 emsson amount emboded n every export sector as shown n table 2. Frstly, the ndrect CO 2 emsson amounts emboded n most export sectors are rsng yearly, but there are also several sectors reveal an oppose tendency, such as the Mnng & quarryng (sector 2). ccordng to chapter 4.1, the ndrect CO 2 emsson ntenses of most sectors are declnng, so the man reason that cause CO 2 emsson amounts rsng are the ncreasng export amounts. Secondly, the dfferences among sectors are very bg. In some sectors, such as the chemcals excludng pharmaceutcals (sector 8), Non-ferrous metal & ferrous metal smeltng & rollng processng ndustry (sector 11), Machnery & equpment (sector 131), the annual ndrect CO 2 emssons emboded n export are above 200 mllon tons. These sectors wh bg growth rate are the man sources of the rsng ndrect CO 2 emssons emboded n Chna s export. In general, the total amount of ndrect CO 2 emsson emboded n Chna s export s also rsng year by year, whle the ndrect CO 2 emsson amount declned n 2008 and 2009 due to the world fnancal crss. Table 2. Indrect CO 2 emsson amount emboded n Chna s export (mllon tons) sector Total Emprcal Test of the Polluton Haven Effect Even from 1990s some papers have mentoned that the strct envronment polcy n developed country may nduce polluton ndustres shftng to developng country, there are few emprcal studes to test. Jancke (1997) uses the NETXC, whch s the rato of net exports to domestc consumpton, to judge the nfluence of envronment polcy to the polluton ndustry n developed country. The study of Jancke (1997) only focuses on polluton ndustry. Cole (2004) mproves the NETXC, adds the clean ndustry as sample, and tests the polluton haven effect n developng country. On the bass of Cole s study, ths paper adopts the followng NETXC to test whether the strengthenng of carbon polcy n developed country make Chna to be the polluton haven of carbon emsson: X M X M NETXC = = (8) W W C P X + M Where = 1, 2... n ndcates sector 1, sector 2,, sector n, t ndcates year. NETXC s the NETXC for sector n a gven year. X represents the export amount of sector n Chna to nnex I countres n a gven year. nnex I countres refer to the contractng partes mentoned n the nnex I of UNFCC (Uned Natons Framework Conventon on Clmate Change). Most of the partes are developed countres. M represents the mport amount of sector n Chna from nnex I countres n a gven year. The balance between X and M ndcates the net export amount of sector n Chna to nnex I countres. C represents the net consumpton of 141

5 sector n Chna, equals the producton (ndcated as P ) mnus the export to other countres, then plus the W W mport (ndcated as M ) from all over the world n sector (ndcated as X ). The data for mport and export are selected from the OECD database, and the amount of producton refers to the output added value. Through the NETXC, We can decde the nfluence of nnex I partes strengthenng carbon polcy on the level of CO 2 emsson n Chna. If the NETXC n some sector s rsng year by year, means that the relatve strct carbon polcy n nnex I partes cause Chna gettng advantage n that sector. If the sector s hgh-emsson ntensve, wll nduce CO 2 emsson rsng and carbon leakage. Ths paper calculates the NETXC for 18 exportng sectors from 2001 to 2010, as seen n table 3. For hgh emsson sectors, the NETXC for some are roughly rsng yearly, such as the Chemcals excludng pharmaceutcals (sector 8) and the Machnery & equpment (sector 13), but the NETXC for Coke, refned petroleum products & nuclear fuel (sector 7) reveals an nverse trend, whle the Non-ferrous metal & ferrous metal smeltng & rollng processng ndustry (sector 10) shows an nverted-u shape. It ndcates that the relatve strct carbon polcy n developed country do not obvously enhance Chna s advantages n hgh emsson sectors. For medum emsson sectors, the NETXC for Mnng & quarryng (sector 2) and other manufacturng (sector 18) reveals an ncreasng trend, whle sector 6 shows nversely. The rest three sectors n ths group do not reveal smple ncreasng or declnng trend. For the low emsson sectors, only the NETXC for Rado, televson & communcaton equpment (sector 16) ncrease year by year, the rest sectors reveal nverse trend except sector 14. Table 3. The NETXC for 18 exportng sectors ( ) Hgh emsson sectors sector sector sector sector sector sector Medum emsson sectors sector sector sector sector sector sector Low emsson sectors sector sector sector sector sector sector Concluson Ths paper calculates the CO 2 emssons emboded n Chna s export trade from 2001 to 2010 by the nput-output framework. Result reveals that the major contrbutor to huge amount of CO 2 emssons of export n Chna s the ncreasng export volume nducng by abroad consumpton, not the CO 2 emssons ntensy whch declnng yearly. Ths paper also use NEXTC to test the effect of relatve strct polcy n developed country on Chna s hgh emsson sectors, medum emsson sectors and low emsson sectors, and fnds the changes of trade advantages n each group are not consstent, whch means carbon leakage do not occur and Chna do not become the polluton haven of CO 2 emssons for developed country. CO 2 emsson s a global publc polluton source, needs all countres enhance cooperaton, ratonally allocate and conscously fulfll emsson reducton oblgatons, mprove the cooperaton framework under the Kyoto Protocol, as well as look for the cooperaton framework for post-kyoto protocol. 142

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