Empowering Charlotte s Water System Master Plan to be More Adaptable

Transcription

1 Empowering Charlotte s Water System Master Plan to be More Adaptable 14 November 2017 Kevin T. Laptos, PE Regional Planning Leader

2 CO-AUTHOR ACKNOWLEDGEMENT KERI CANTRELL, CHARLOTTE WATER KATY WEIDNER, BLACK & VEATCH BEN COWNIE, BLACK & VEATCH KENT LACKEY, BLACK & VEATCH 2

3 PRESENTATION OVERVIEW Water Demand Impacts on Master Planning Master Planning Drivers Challenges with Planning Assumptions Charlotte Water s Adaptable CIP Solution Summary & Conclusions 3

4 WATER DEMAND IMPACTS ON MASTER PLANNING 4

5 Future Water Demand Uncertainty Projecting has always been a challenge Residential population (location and magnitude)? Commercial/Industrial? Economy? New challenges more recently Per-capita usage has been declining More difficult to predict 5

6 Reasons for Declining Water Usage Economic Factors Cost of water Unemployment rates Irrigation Advancements Percentage of homes with sprinkler systems and/or auto controllers Improved irrigation system technology Conservation Low flow fixtures and high efficiency appliances in new homes Replacement of old fixtures and appliances in old homes Improved awareness of water scarcity 6

7 Conservation Legislation The impact has been gradual, but steady and on-going 7

8 Charlotte Water Historical and Projected Customer Accounts Pre-Recession: Rapid Growth During Recession: Reduction in Accounts Post-Recession: Slightly Lower Growth Rate Accounts Historical Projected Year 882 Zone 978 Zone 960 Zone 782 Zone System Total 8

9 Charlotte Water Historical Per Account Usage Trends Significant reduction in residential usage per account since 2001 Reduction has been less in more recent years Reduction trend is expected to continue Consumption per Account per Day (gapd) Single Family Residential use Left Axis Commercial use Right Axis Trend Lines Trend Lines 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 Consumption per Account per Day (gapd) Year SF Residential SF Resid Trends Apartments Apartments Trends 9

10 Charlotte Water Projected Future Per Capita Usage Wanted to plan for reduction trend to continue Referenced AW and WRF studies to establish minimum indoor usage Estimated outdoor usage based on summer vs winter billing records Assumed current rate of reduction to continue Another element of future demand uncertainty SF Residential Consumption per Capita per Day (gcpd) Historical 30 Minimum Residential Indoor/Outdoor 20 Per Capita Consumption (48 gcpd) 10 Minimum Residential Indoor Per Scenario 2 Capita Consumption (38 gcpd) Year Historical Total Scenario 2 Total Min Indoor Consump Projected Scenario 1 Scenarios 3 & 4 Scenario 1 Total Scenario 3 Total Min Indoor/Outdoor Consump 10

11 MASTER PLANNING DRIVERS 11

12 Traditional Driver for Master Planning System Demand / Capacity System capacity improvements System Capacity System Demand SYSTEM GROWTH System capacity projects to meet future demands Projecting accurate future demands as challenging as ever Planning Horizon 12

13 New Master Planning Drivers Operating Costs Aging Infrastructure Water Quality Regulations Reliability & Resiliency Existing Pipeline WTP Critical Customer New Pipeline 13

14 CHALLENGES WITH PLANNING ASSUMPTIONS 14

15 ASSUMPTIONS IMPACTING MASTER PLAN CIPs Growth patterns Accuracy of population projections both in magnitude and location? Declining water usage How much longer will it continue? At what per-capita demand will it bottom-out? Project drivers What is causing the need for the project? When exactly does the project need to be implemented? Utility budgets Will funding for the CIP be available in the future? Time Uncertainty Uncertainty 15

16 TRADITIONAL METHODS FOR DEALING WITH UNCERTAINTY Update master plans on a regular basis (i.e. every 5 years) Water demand projections to be updated based on the latest information CIP projects adjusted accordingly Develop and plan for different demand projection scenarios Provides an understanding of how water demands directly impact CIP projects But how should we update/manage the CIP between master plan updates? 16

17 CHARLOTTE WATER S ADAPTABLE CIP SOLUTION 17

18 Main 36" 36" 36" 36" Blowoff Cathodic Secondary Pavement Erosion Restoration Traffic Subtotal Surveys, General Contractor Mobilization Contingencies Total OBJECTIVES TO IMPROVE ADAPTABILITY OF MASTER PLAN CIP Don t lock project timing. Define drivers and use triggers to monitor and adjust dynamically. Provide GIS tools to easily view and adjust project locations and assess changes to CIP project costs. Project Trigger Projected Demand Projected Project Needed Actual Demand Actual Project Needed (Deferred) 3. Provide easily updatable project cost estimating forms and cash flow forecasts to assess financial requirements. 1 n $62.3 Mallard Connector Main Quantity Unit Cost Line Item Size Construction Cost DIP (34000 $8,305,300 lf) Pipe ,000 lf $ /lf Pipe lf $0.00 /lf $0 0 0 lf By 36Project 3 ea Type Pipe 3 $0.00 /lf $0 BOL Connection BOL Connection $33, /ea $101,900 Annual Required Cash Flow (Millions of 2017 Dollars) - 25 Year CIP EOL Connection EOL Connection 36 1 ea $33, /ea $34,000 Line Valves (17) Line Valve ea $33, /ea $577,700 Distribution Main Treatment Storage $6, /ea $42,000 Valves (7) Blowoff Valve 7 ea Fire Hydrant 0 ea $2, /ea $0 Pump Station Pressure Zone Valve Programs and Studies $5.00 /lf $170,000 Protection (34000 lf) Cathodic Protection 34,000 lf Major Roadway Crossing 0 lf $5, /lf $0 $80.8 Road Crossing (750 lf) Secondary Road Crossing 750 lf $ /lf $600,000 Railroad Crossing 0 lf $5, /lf $0 $73.1 Stream Crossing 0 ea $20, /ea $0 Removal and Replacement (28000 SYD) Pavement Removal and Replacement 28,000 $69.3 SYD $65.00 /SYD $1,820,000 $65.0 Control (34000 lf) Erosion Control 34,000 lf $3.00 $63.3 /lf $64.1 $102,000 $61.7 (34000 lf) Restoration 34,000 lf $2.50 /lf $85,000 $59.8 $59.8 Control (340 days) Traffic Control 340 days $1, /day $510,000 $55.0 $53.3 Additional Construction Cost 1 / $0 $51.9 $49.1 Additional Construction Cost 2 / $0 Additional Construction Cost 3 / $0 $44.0 $44.2 $41.9 $12,347,900 $40.6 $39.2 Record Documents, GPS Information $61,700 Requirements (10%) $1,234,800 Fee (5%) $617,400 (3%) $370,400 (10%) $1,234,800 Construction Cost $15,867,000 $16.7 $16.7 $16.7 $17.7 $16.3 Interactive and dynamic

19 CLTWater s icip Tool Interactive Capital Improvement Planning Integrates a CIP spreadsheet with the GIS Inventory Built on top of ArcGIS (Esri Add-in) 19

20 CLTWater Project Drivers and Triggers Drivers Capacity, Resiliency, Reliability, Condition, Water Quality, Fire Flow, Regulatory Triggers Specific to each project Examples Zone demands Risk threshold Regulation deadline Planning Period Project Name Project Drivers Trigger(s) 10 Year CIP Mallard Connector Main Capacity Current 978 Zone MDD 882 Zone MDD > 103 mgd 20

21 GIS Capability To Modify Project Locations Project locations are easily viewed in GIS Locations are modified when: More information dictates the need Detailed alignment studies are completed 21

22 New route pipeline length = 1,628 feet Original route pipeline length = 2,326 feet Black & Veatch 22

23 Black & Veatch Project Description and Pipeline Length are automatically updated in CIP spreadsheet after synchronizing with GIS 23

24 36" 36" 36" 36" Blowoff Cathodic Secondary Pavement Erosion Restoration Traffic Subtotal Surveys, General Contractor Mobilization Contingencies Total Construction Cost Estimating Forms and Updates Forms are updated as project design details become better defined 1 Main Mallard Connector Main Line Item Size Quantity Unit Cost Construction Cost DIP (34000 lf) Pipe ,000 lf $ /lf $8,305,300 Pipe lf $0.00 /lf $0 Pipe lf $0.00 /lf $0 BOL Connection BOL Connection 36 3 ea $33, /ea $101,900 EOL Connection EOL Connection 36 1 ea $33, /ea $34,000 Line Valves (17) Line Valve ea $33, /ea $577,700 Valves (7) Blowoff Valve 7 ea $6, /ea $42,000 Fire Hydrant 0 ea $2, /ea $0 Protection (34000 lf) Cathodic Protection 34,000 lf $5.00 /lf $170,000 Major Roadway Crossing 0 lf $5, /lf $0 Road Crossing (750 lf) Secondary Road Crossing 750 lf $ /lf $600,000 Railroad Crossing 0 lf $5, /lf $0 Stream Crossing 0 ea $20, /ea $0 Removal and Replacement (28000 SYD) Pavement Removal and Replacement 28,000 SYD $65.00 /SYD $1,820,000 Control (34000 lf) Erosion Control 34,000 lf $3.00 /lf $102,000 (34000 lf) Restoration 34,000 lf $2.50 /lf $85,000 Control (340 days) Traffic Control 340 days $1, /day $510,000 Additional Construction Cost 1 / $0 Additional Construction Cost 2 / $0 Additional Construction Cost 3 / $0 $12,347,900 Record Documents, GPS Information $61,700 Requirements (10%) $1,234,800 Fee (5%) $617,400 (3%) $370,400 (10%) $1,234,800 Construction Cost $15,867,000 24

25 Project Cost Estimating Forms and Updates Land acquisition, easement, engineering, and contingency costs are updated in the CIP spreadsheet when needed Total Project Costs are automatically calculated and updated in the CIP spreadsheet 25

26 CIP Cash Flow Forecasts Cash Flow forecasts clearly define future financial requirements By Project Type Annual Required Cash Flow (Millions of 2017 Dollars) - 25 Year CIP Distribution Main Treatment Storage Pump Station Pressure Zone Valve Programs and Studies $80.8 $73.1 $69.3 $62.3 $63.3 $64.1 $65.0 $61.7 $59.8 $59.8 $55.0 $53.3 $51.9 $49.1 $44.0 $44.2 $41.9 $40.6 $39.2 $16.3 $16.7 $16.7 $16.7 $

27 CIP Cash Flow Impact Assessments Adjustments to project Start Years automatically update the years when project Planning/Design and Construction are to occur Impacts to the Cash Flow can be immediately assessed 2023 Start Year Planning Period Project Name Start Year (FY) Project Status 10 Year CIP Mallard Connector Main 2023 In Progress P P C C C Start Year deferred 2-years Planning Period Project Name Start Year (FY) Project Status 10 Year CIP Mallard Connector Main 2025 In Progress P P C C C FY FY FY FY FY FY FY FY FY FY FY FY FY FY FY FY FY FY FY FY FY FY FY FY FY FY

28 By Project Type Annual Required Cash Flow (Millions of 2017 Dollars) - 25 Year CIP Distribution Main Treatment Storage Pump Station Pressure Zone Valve Programs and Studies $80.8 $69.3 $73.1 $62.3 $63.3 $64.1 $61.7 $65.0 $59.8 $59.8 $49.1 $53.3 $51.9 $55.0 $44.0 $40.6 $44.2 $41.9 $39.2 $16.3 $16.7 $16.7 $16.7 $

29 By Project Type Annual Required Cash Flow (Millions of 2017 Dollars) - 25 Year CIP Distribution Main Treatment Storage Pump Station Pressure Zone Valve Programs and Studies $80.8 $69.3 $73.1 $62.3 $63.3 $64.1 $61.7 $65.0 $59.8 $59.8 $48.1 $43.0 $48.9 $46.2 $53.3 $51.9 $55.0 $34.6 $38.2 $16.3 $16.7 $16.7 $16.7 $

30 SUMMARY & CONCLUSIONS 30

31 Summary & Conclusions Water demand projections can significantly impact master plan CIPs and developing accurate projections today is as challenging as ever Defining project drivers and triggers is important to understand why and when master plan CIP projects are needed Updating master plans regularly and planning for different demand projection scenarios are still good approaches for dealing with uncertainty CIP management tools are another way to address uncertainty in planning assumptions and improve the adaptability of master plan CIPs 31

32 Kevin T. Laptos, PE Regional Planning Leader November 2017