The Outlook for Energy:

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1 The Outlook for Energy: A View to 24 Somnath Sinha May 12, 216 The Outlook for Energy includes Exxon Mobil Corporation s internal estimates and forecasts of energy demand, supply, and trends through 24 based upon internal data and analyses as well as publicly available information from external sources including the International Energy Agency. Work on the report was conducted throughout 215. This presentation includes forward looking statements. Actual future conditions and results (including energy demand, energy supply, the relative mix of energy across sources, economic sectors and geographic regions, imports and exports of energy) could differ materially due to changes in economic conditions, technology, the development of new supply sources, political events, demographic changes, and other factors discussed herein and under the heading Factors Affecting Future Results in the Investors section of our website at This material is not to be used or reproduced without the permission of Exxon Mobil Corporation. All rights reserved. 1

2 Key Energy Outlook Themes Energy is fundamental to standards of living. Developing nations lead gains in GDP and living standards. Economics and policies impact the fuel mix. Oil remains the world s primary fuel through 24. Natural gas grows more than any other energy source. Technology has the highest potential and greatest uncertainty. 2 ExxonMobil 216 Outlook for Energy

3 Global Trends Continue to Evolve 125% Growth from 214 Level Percent GDP 1% 75% 5% 25% Demand Population % Carbon Emissions 3 ExxonMobil 216 Outlook for Energy

4 Energy is fundamental to standards of living. 4

5 Children cannot study in the dark. Girls and women cannot learn or be productive when they spend hours a day collecting firewood. Businesses and economies cannot grow without power. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon United Nations Foundation 5

6 Energy Fuels Human Development U.N. Human Development Index 213 Index 1. Norway Germany United States.75 Brazil Bangladesh India China.5 Nigeria.25 Niger Source: United Nations, ExxonMobil estimates Energy Use per Capita (Thousand BTU/person/day) 6 ExxonMobil 216 Outlook for Energy

7 Developing nations lead in GDP growth and living standard improvements. 7

8 Global GDP Shifts Toward Developing Nations 214 OECD* Rest of World Key Growth India China Mexico Brazil Nigeria Egypt Turkey Iran Saudi Arabia India Thailand China Indonesia South Africa $72 Trillion (21$) *Mexico and Turkey included in Key Growth countries 8 ExxonMobil 216 Outlook for Energy

9 Global GDP Shifts Toward Developing Nations OECD* Rest of World Key Growth India China 2.% per year 3.4% 3.5% 5.5% 5.% $72 Trillion (21$) ~$15 Trillion (21$) *Mexico and Turkey included in Key Growth countries 9 ExxonMobil 216 Outlook for Energy

10 Middle Class and Urbanization Increase Global Middle Class Billion People 5 Urbanization Percent Rest of World Key Growth 75 OECD* Turkey China Indonesia 2 China 5 India 1 India 25 OECD* '14 ' Source: The Brookings Institution *Mexico and Turkey included in Key Growth countries Source: United Nations 1 ExxonMobil 216 Outlook for Energy

11 Demand Growth From Developing Nations Energy Demand Quadrillion BTUs 8 6 Rest of World Key Growth 4 India China 2 OECD* *Mexico and Turkey included in Key Growth countries 11 ExxonMobil 216 Outlook for Energy

12 Economics and policies impact the fuel mix. 12

13 Every country finds itself at a different point in the development journey. Therefore, the pace and rhythm of their emissions reductions and investments in adaptation will vary. President Jim Yong Kim World Bank Group 13

14 CO 2 Policy Assumptions Vary by Region 24 CO 2 Proxy Cost < 1 $/ton ~ 2 $/ton ~ 35 $/ton ~ 8 $/ton 14 ExxonMobil 216 Outlook for Energy

15 CO Energy 2 Emissions Mix Shifts Plateau to Lower-Carbon Fuels Global Energy Mix Percent Energy-Related CO 2 Emissions by Region Billion Tonnes 1% Biomass 4 Renewables 75% Nuclear 3 Rest of World Gas Key Growth 5% 2 India Coal China 25% 1 Oil OECD* % *Mexico and Turkey included in Key Growth countries 15 ExxonMobil 216 Outlook for Energy

16 Oil remains the world s primary fuel through

17 Transportation and Chemicals Drive Growth Liquids Demand by Sector MBDOE Chemical Transportation Industrial Res/Comm Electricity Generation 17 ExxonMobil 216 Outlook for Energy

18 Transportation Demand Sector Demand MBDOE 75 Rail 5 Marine Aviation Commercial Heavy Duty 25 Light Duty ExxonMobil 216 Outlook for Energy

19 Global Fuel Economy Standards (28) Policy in Place Standards Policy Evolving 19 ExxonMobil 216 Outlook for Energy

20 Global Fuel Economy Standards (214) Policy in Place Standards Policy Evolving 2 ExxonMobil 216 Outlook for Energy

21 Global Vehicle Fleet By Type Million Cars 2 Internal Combustion Engine Electric 15 Elec/Plug-in/Fuel Cell Hybrid Natural Gas & LPG Diesel Gasoline Lower Cost Convenience Improving Efficiency Natural Gas & LPG Hybrid Public Transport High Efficiency High Cost Range/Charging Limit Hydrogen Fuel Cell 1 5 '1 '15 '2 '25 '3 '35 '4 21 ExxonMobil 216 Outlook for Energy

22 Liquids Production By Region MBDOE 12 By Type MBDOE 4 8 Other NonOPEC Russia North America 2 4 OPEC OPEC Non-OPEC NGLs Tight Oil Deepwater Oil Sands Other Conventional Crude and Condensate 22 ExxonMobil 216 Outlook for Energy

23 Liquids Trade Balance by Region MBDOE 3 Other Demand 2 Natural Gas Liquids Tight Oil 1 Oil Sands Deepwater North America Conventional Crude & Condensate 23 ExxonMobil 216 Outlook for Energy

24 Liquids Trade Balance by Region MBDOE Other 45 Natural Gas Liquids Tight Oil Oil Sands Deepwater Conventional Crude & Condensate Demand North America Latin America Africa Europe Russia/ Caspian Middle East Asia Pacific 24 ExxonMobil 216 Outlook for Energy

25 Natural gas grows more than any other energy source. 25

26 Gas Demand Grows in All Sectors Gas Demand by Sector BCFD Electricity Generation Industrial Res/Comm Transportation 26 ExxonMobil 216 Outlook for Energy

27 Electricity Demand Continues to Surge By Sector Thousand TWh Electricity Demand by Region Thousand TWh Transportation 8 China 2 Res/Comm 6 4 Key Growth United States Europe OECD 1 Industrial 2 India ExxonMobil 216 Outlook for Energy

28 Global Electricity Transitions Regional Generation Thousand TWh Other Renewables 8 8 Wind & Solar Nuclear Gas Coal Oil OECD* China India Key Growth Rest of World 28 ExxonMobil 216 Outlook for Energy

29 Natural Gas Supply By Production Type BCFD 6 By Delivery Type BCFD 6 LNG 4 Unconventional 4 Pipeline 2 2 Conventional Net Local Production ExxonMobil 216 Outlook for Energy

30 Gas Trade Balance by Region BCFD Unconventional Production Conventional Production Demand North America Latin America Africa Europe Russia/ Caspian Middle East Asia Pacific 3 ExxonMobil 216 Outlook for Energy

31 Technology has the highest potential and greatest uncertainty. 31

32 The only reason I m optimistic about this problem is because of innovation. Bill Gates The Atlantic, Nov

33 Technology Helps Us Do More With Less Global Average Energy Intensity Thousand BTUs per dollar GDP (21$) ExxonMobil 216 Outlook for Energy

34 Technology Contributes to the Fuel Mix Global Mix of Fuels 1% 75% Other Renewables Nuclear Hydro Unconventional Gas Gas 5% Deepwater, Oil Sands, Tight Oil Oil 25% Coal % Biomass Source: Smil, Energy Transitions (18-196) 34 ExxonMobil 216 Outlook for Energy

35 Global Demand 24 By Fuel Quadrillion BTUs 25.7% Average Growth / Yr %.9% % 1 5.3% 2.9% 4.8% 1.3% Oil Gas Coal Biomass Nuclear Solar / Wind / Biofuels Hydro / Geo 35 ExxonMobil 216 Outlook for Energy

36 Managing Climate Risk U.S. CO 2 Abatement Costs Dollars per tonne Improved Gasoline Vehicles Gas into Power Nuclear Hybrid Vehicles Carbon Capture and Sequestration Wind Solar Electric Cars 36 ExxonMobil 216 Outlook for Energy

37 For more information, visit exxonmobil.com/energyoutlook or download the ExxonMobil app 37

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