The Outlook for Energy:

Transcription

1 The Outlook for Energy: A View to 24 Todd Onderdonk FPA DFW Symposium May 216 The Outlook for Energy includes Exxon Mobil Corporation s internal estimates and forecasts of energy demand, supply, and trends through 24 based upon internal data and analyses as well as publicly available information from external sources including the International Energy Agency. Work on the report was conducted throughout 215. This presentation includes forward looking statements. Actual future conditions and results (including energy demand, energy supply, the relative mix of energy across sources, economic sectors and geographic regions, imports and exports of energy) could differ materially due to changes in economic conditions, technology, the development of new supply sources, political events, demographic changes, and other factors discussed herein and under the heading Factors Affecting Future Results in the Investors section of our website at This material is not to be used or reproduced without the permission of Exxon Mobil Corporation. All rights reserved. 1

2 Key Energy Outlook Themes Energy is fundamental to standards of living. Developing nations lead gains in GDP and living standards. Economics and policies impact the fuel mix. Oil remains the world s primary fuel through 24. Natural gas grows more than any other energy source. Technology has the highest potential and greatest uncertainty. 2 ExxonMobil 216 Outlook for Energy

3 Global Trends Continue to Evolve 125% Growth from 214 Level Percent GDP 1% 75% 5% 25% Demand Population % Carbon Emissions 3 ExxonMobil 216 Outlook for Energy

4 Global GDP Shifts Toward Developing Nations 214 OECD* Rest of World Key Growth India China Mexico Brazil Nigeria Egypt Turkey Iran Saudi Arabia India Thailand China Indonesia South Africa $72 Trillion (21$) *Mexico and Turkey included in Key Growth countries 4 ExxonMobil 216 Outlook for Energy

5 Global GDP Shifts Toward Developing Nations OECD* Rest of World Key Growth India China 2.% per year 3.4% 3.5% 5.5% 5.% $72 Trillion (21$) ~$15 Trillion (21$) *Mexico and Turkey included in Key Growth countries 5 ExxonMobil 216 Outlook for Energy

6 Developing Economies Dominate Growth Energy Demand by Region Quadrillion BTUs 75 Rest of World 5 Key Growth India 25 China OECD* *Mexico and Turkey included in Key Growth countries 6 ExxonMobil 216 Outlook for Energy

7 United States Energy Trends Indexed to GDP Population 1. Demand Carbon Emissions ExxonMobil 216 Outlook for Energy

8 Economics and policies impact the fuel mix. 8

9 CO 2 Policy Assumptions Vary by Region 24 CO 2 Proxy Cost < 1 $/ton ~ 2 $/ton ~ 35 $/ton ~ 8 $/ton 9 ExxonMobil 216 Outlook for Energy

10 CO Energy 2 Emissions Mix Shifts Plateau to Lower-Carbon Fuels Global Energy Mix Percent Energy-Related CO 2 Emissions by Region Billion Tonnes 1% Biomass 4 Renewables 75% Nuclear 3 Rest of World Gas Key Growth 5% 2 India Coal China 25% 1 Oil OECD* % *Mexico and Turkey included in Key Growth countries 1 ExxonMobil 216 Outlook for Energy

11 Oil remains the world s primary fuel through

12 Transportation and Chemicals Drive Growth Liquids Demand by Sector MBDOE Chemical Transportation Industrial Res/Comm Electricity Generation 12 ExxonMobil 216 Outlook for Energy

13 Transportation Demand Sector Demand MBDOE 75 Rail 5 Marine Aviation Commercial Heavy Duty 25 Light Duty ExxonMobil 216 Outlook for Energy

14 Transportation Demand Shifts Toward Diesel Non OECD MBDOE 5 OECD MBDOE 5 Gas Other Jet Fuel Fuel Oil 25 Biodiesel Diesel 25 Ethanol Gasoline ExxonMobil 216 Outlook for Energy

15 Global Fuel Economy Standards (214) Policy in Place Standards Policy Evolving 15 ExxonMobil 216 Outlook for Energy

16 Global Vehicle Fleet By Type Million Cars 2 Internal Combustion Engine Electric 15 Elec/Plug-in/Fuel Cell Hybrid Natural Gas & LPG Diesel Gasoline Lower Cost Convenience Improving Efficiency Natural Gas & LPG Hybrid Public Transport High Efficiency High Cost Range/Charging Limit Hydrogen Fuel Cell 1 5 '1 '15 '2 '25 '3 '35 '4 16 ExxonMobil 216 Outlook for Energy

17 Light Duty Vehicle Efficiency Fleet by Type Million Average Vehicle Efficiency On-Road Miles per Gallon 18 Elec/Plug-in/Fuel Cell Hybrid Natural Gas & LPG Diesel Gasoline 45 Average Fleet Europe U.S ExxonMobil 216 Outlook for Energy

18 Motorcycles Grow With Rising Incomes Global LDV and Motorcycle Fleet Million Penetration Per 1 People LDVs Motorcycles 2 Motorcycles 5 LDVs Europe South Korea Brazil China Indonesia India 18 ExxonMobil 216 Outlook for Energy

19 Chemical Demand Chemical Demand by Region Quadrillion BTUs 75 Chemical Demand by Fuel Type Quadrillion BTUs 25 4 Rest of World 2 5 Key Growth India China 1 OECD* 5 United States Naphtha Gas Liquids Other Oil Gas Coal Elec/ Heat *Mexico and Turkey included in Key Growth countries 19 ExxonMobil 216 Outlook for Energy

20 Supply 2

21 Liquids Production By Region MBDOE 12 By Type MBDOE 4 8 Other NonOPEC Russia North America 2 4 OPEC OPEC Non-OPEC NGLs Tight Oil Deepwater Oil Sands Other Conventional Crude and Condensate 21 ExxonMobil 216 Outlook for Energy

22 Liquids Trade Balance by Region MBDOE Net Imports Net Exports Other Supply North America Latin America Africa Europe Russia/ Caspian Middle East Asia Pacific 22 ExxonMobil 216 Outlook for Energy

23 Natural gas grows more than any other energy source. 23

24 Gas Demand Grows in All Sectors Gas Demand by Sector BCFD Electricity Generation Industrial Res/Comm Transportation 24 ExxonMobil 216 Outlook for Energy

25 Electricity Grows in Developing Economies Electricity Demand by Region Thousand TWh 4 Per Capita Demand MWh per person United States 3 Rest of World Key Growth India China OECD* United States China Europe Key Growth India *Mexico and Turkey included in Key Growth countries 25 ExxonMobil 216 Outlook for Energy

26 Fuel for Electricity Transitions Electricity Delivered by Type Thousand TWh 4 3 Other Renewables Wind & Solar 2 Nuclear Gas 1 OECD ' '1 '2 '3 '4 Coal Oil 26 ExxonMobil 216 Outlook for Energy

27 A Shift in Electricity Generation Change in Electricity Net Delivered Thousand TWh Gas Net Wind/Solar Nuclear Other Renewables Coal OECD* China India Key Growth Rest of World Oil *Mexico and Turkey included in Key Growth countries 27 ExxonMobil 216 Outlook for Energy

28 Supply 28

29 Natural Gas Supply By Production Type BCFD By Delivery Type BCFD 6 6 Rest of World Asia Pacific LNG 4 North America 4 Pipeline Unconventional 2 Conventional 2 Net Local Production ExxonMobil 216 Outlook for Energy

30 Gas Trade Balance by Region BCFD Net Imports Net Exports 15 Other Supply North America Latin America Africa Europe Russia/ Caspian Middle East Asia Pacific 3 ExxonMobil 216 Outlook for Energy

31 Technology has the highest potential and greatest uncertainty. 31

32 Technology Helps Us Do More With Less Global Average Energy Intensity Thousand BTUs per dollar GDP (21$) ExxonMobil 216 Outlook for Energy

33 Technology Contributes to the Fuel Mix Global Mix of Fuels 1% 75% Other Renewables Nuclear Hydro Unconventional Gas Gas 5% Deepwater, Oil Sands, Tight Oil Oil 25% Coal % Biomass Source: Smil, Energy Transitions (18-196) 33 ExxonMobil 216 Outlook for Energy

34 Global Demand 24 By Fuel Quadrillion BTUs 25.7% Average Growth / Yr %.9% % 1 5.3% 2.9% 4.8% 1.3% Oil Gas Coal Biomass Nuclear Solar / Wind / Biofuels Hydro / Geo 34 ExxonMobil 216 Outlook for Energy

35 Global Demand 24 By Fuel Quadrillion BTUs 25 2 Total Non OECD share increases from 6% to 7% 15 Non OECD 1 5 OECD Oil Gas Coal Biomass Nuclear Solar / Wind / Biofuels Hydro / Geo 35 ExxonMobil 216 Outlook for Energy

36 For more information, visit exxonmobil.com/energyoutlook or download the ExxonMobil app 36