The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040

Transcription

1 The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040 Rob Gardner March 2014 This presentation includes forward looking statements. Actual future conditions (including economic conditions, energy demand, and energy supply) could differ materially due to changes in technology, the development of new supply sources, political events, demographic changes, and other factors discussed herein and under the heading "Factors Affecting Future Results" in the Investors section of our website at: The information provided includes ExxonMobil's internal estimates and forecasts based upon internal data and analyses as well as publically available information from external sources including the International Energy Agency. This material is not to be used or reproduced without the permission of Exxon Mobil Corporation. All rights reserved.

2 Energy Outlook Development Motor Gasoline Distillate Naphtha 15 demand Jet Fuel Fuel Oil LPG Lubes sectors Asphalt Natural Gas Nuclear Residential 100 Commercial Lt. Transportation countries Bio mogas Biomass/Other Hvy. Transportation Coal Geothermal Aviation Rail Chemicals Solar Asphalt Wind Bio distillate Lubricants Trade 20 fuel Flows types Flaring Energy Industry Technology Electricity & Hydro Marine Agriculture Policy Market Heat Heavy Industry Power Generation

3 CO 2 Policies

4 Global Progress Drives Demand Population Billion GDP Trillion 2005$ Energy Demand Quadrillion BTUs Average Growth / Yr % Average Growth / Yr % Average Growth / Yr % Energy Saved ~500 Rest of World India China Key Growth OECD *Mexico and Turkey included in Key Growth

5 Key Growth Countries Leading Economic Growth 2010 to 2040 Percent Share 2040 Energy Demand QUADS 60+ Countries Turkey Egypt China ~40% India ~15% Other 25% Key Growth 20% Thailand South Africa Nigeria Mexico Iran 10 Countries Saudi Arabia Indonesia Brazil

6 United States Energy Trends

7 United States Energy Demand and Supply By Sector Quadrillion BTUs 100 By Fuel Quadrillion BTUs Res/Comm Industrial 80 Other Renewables Biomass Nuclear Coal 40 Electricity Generation 40 Gas 20 Transportation 20 Oil

8 Electricity Generation Leads Growth Energy Demand by Sector Quadrillion BTUs Electricity Demand 2010

9 Electricity Generation

10 Electricity Demand Global Electrical Demand by Sector Thousand TWh Global Electrical Demand by Fuel Thousand TWh Other Industry Gas Heavy Industry Coal Commercial Nuclear Wind & Solar Transportation Residential Oil Other Renewables

11 United States Electricity Demand Electricity Demand Thousand Terawatt Hour Transportation Commercial Residential Other Industry Heavy Industry Electricity Generation Fuel Consumption Quadrillion BTUs Other Renewables Wind & Solar Biomass Nuclear Coal 1 Gas Oil

12 U.S. Changing Electricity Generation Fuel Mix Electricity Generation Quadrillion BTUs Wind & Solar Other Renewables Growth versus 2010 by Fuel Quadrillion BTUs Electricity Generation CO 2 Emissions Billion Tons Nuclear 1.5 Coal 1.0 Oil Gas

13 Industrial

14 Industrial Energy Demand By Region Quadrillion BTUs By Sector Fuel Percent Share 2010 Other Other Naphtha NGLs Rest of Non OECD India China Electricity Energy Industry Coal Chemicals Other Heavy Oil Industry OECD Gas 2040

15 Chemicals Demand Sees Significant Growth By Sector MBDOE Ethylene Production MTA Other Chemicals ROW Steam Cracking Fertilizer Asia Pacific North America

16 Transportation

17 Transportation Fuel Demand World MBDOE United States MBDOE Fuel Oil Natural Gas Other Jet Fuel Biodiesel Diesel Ethanol Gasoline

18 U.S. Heavy Duty Demand and Natural Gas Heavy Duty Demand MBDOE HDV Gas Demand BCFD Gas LPG Buses Medium Trucks Diesel Heavy Trucks Gasoline

19 U.S. Natural Gas Vehicle Economics Light Duty Vehicles 5 yr. Cost of Ownership; $k Heavy Duty Vehicles 3 yr. Cost of Ownership; $k Fuel Cost Fuel Cost Vehicle Cost Vehicle Cost Long Haul Truck LNG Tanks

20 Gas Into Transportation 2040 by Region BCFD 2025 * Excludes Mexico and Turkey

21 Supply

22 Energy Mix Continues to Evolve Quadrillion BTUs 0.7% % Average Growth / Yr % 0.0% 2.5% 0.4% 5.9% 2.0%

23 Global Liquids Demand by Sector By Sector MBDOE By Region MBDOE Rest of World Transportation India China Key Growth Industrial OECD* Electricity Generation Res/Comm * Excludes Mexico and Turkey

24 Liquids Supply Supply by Type MBDOE 2040 Liquids Supply by Region MBDOE Biofuels Other Liquids NGLs Oil Sands Tight Oil Deepwater Conventional Crude & Condensate 2010

25 Highest Texas Production Since 1980 s Texas Field Production of Crude Oil KBD Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration; 2013 through August

26 Global Natural Gas Demand by Sector By Sector BCFD By Region BCFD Electricity Generation Rest of World India China Industrial Key Growth Res/Comm OECD* Tran. * Excludes Mexico and Turkey

27 United States Natural Gas Demand Total Demand Quadrillion BTUs Gas by Sector BCFD Other Coal Gas Oil

28 Natural Gas Into Industry United States Total Industrial by Fuel Quadrillion BTUs Gas by Industrial Sector BCFD Coal Electricity Biomass Chemicals Gas Heavy Industry Oil Energy Industry

29 Remaining Global Gas Resource Over 200 years coverage at current demand North America Europe OECD Russia/ Caspian* TCF 3.6 Middle East Unconventional 3.0 Asia Pacific Conventional Latin America Africa Source: IEA; *Includes Europe Non OECD

30 U.S. Reserves Accelerate U.S. Proved Reserves Wet Natural Gas TCF Proved reserves of U.S. wet natural gas rose by 31.2 trillion cubic feet in 2011 to a new record high of trillion cubic feet. U.S. EIA Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration

31 Growth in Unconventional Production Production by Type BCFD Production by Region BCFD Rest of World Asia Pacific Shale Coal Bed Methane North America Tight

32 Pennsylvania s 15x Increase Pennsylvania Natural Gas Production BCFD Source: Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection

33 Natural Gas Supply and Demand Shifts Global Gas Demand BCFD Global Gas Supply BCFD LA Afr. ROW Rest of World Unconventional Other India China AP ME North America Unconventional Rest of World Conventional North America Conventional

34 Gas Demand Grows and Supply Diversifies North America BCFD Europe BCFD Asia Pacific BCFD Local Production Unconventional LNG Pipeline Conventional

35 Global LNG Supply and Demand LNG Demand MTA LNG Supply MTA Other Europe Atlantic Basin Middle East Asia Pacific Pacific Basin

36 Global LNG Supply & Demand Outlook MTA Future Projects Under Construction & FID Projects Existing LNG Projects

37 Natural Gas Trade Russia/Caspian North America Europe Middle East Asia Pacific Latin America BCFD Net Exports Net Imports Africa

38 Transition to Modern Energy / Technology US Energy Demand Percent Canals Personal Vehicles Passenger Flights Hybrid Vehicle Railways & Steamships Rail Freight Road Freight Deepwater & Arctic Coal Mining Electrification Air Conditioning Shale Gas & Oil Sands Wood & Coal Heating Oil Prod & Refining Natural Gas in Homes Wind Telegraph Telephone Nuclear Power Cell Phones & PCs Wood Coal Oil Gas Hydro Nuclear Renewables Source: Energy Information Agency & ExxonMobil

39 Conclusions

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41 Natural Gas Into Industry United States Total Industrial by Fuel Quadrillion BTUs Gas by Industrial Sector BCFD Coal Electricity Biomass Chemicals Gas Heavy Industry Oil Energy Industry

42 Global Natural Gas Demand Total Demand Quadrillion BTUs Gas By Sector BCFD Other Coal Electricity Generation Gas Industrial Oil Res/Comm Transportation

43 Today s Vehicle Technology Choices US Estimated Driving Distance per Fill up 5 Year Cost & Savings 2013$k Full hybrid: 480 miles Diesel: 430 miles Gasoline: 360 miles E85: 260 miles CNG: 220 miles Electric: Up to 100 miles PHEV: Up to 40 miles miles

44 Costs Impact U.S. Heavy Duty Choices 3 Year Cost of Ownership $k Year Cost of Ownership $k 2012 Vehicle Cost Vehicle Cost Fuel Cost Fuel Cost Long Haul Truck Short Haul Truck LNG Tanks CNG Tanks