The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040

Transcription

1 The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040 Todd Onderdonk USAEE -- Houston February 2014 This presentation includes forward-looking statements. Actual future conditions (including economic conditions, energy demand, and energy supply) could differ materially due to changes in technology, the development of new supply sources, political events, demographic changes, and other factors discussed herein and under the heading "Factors Affecting Future Results" in the Investors section of our website at: The information provided includes ExxonMobil's internal estimates and forecasts based upon internal data and analyses as well as publically-available information from external sources including the International Energy Agency. This material is not to be used or reproduced without the permission of Exxon Mobil Corporation. All rights reserved.

2 Energy Outlook Development 100 countries

3 Energy Outlook Development Residential Chemicals Commercial Asphalt 15 demand sectors Lt. Transportation Hvy. Transportation Aviation Lubricants Flaring Energy Industry Marine Agriculture Rail Heavy Industry Power Generation

4 Energy Outlook Development Motor Gasoline Asphalt Distillate Naphtha Jet Fuel Natural Gas Nuclear Biomass/Other Solar Wind Bio-mogas 20 fuel Fuel Oil Coal Bio-distillate types LPG Lubes Hydro Geothermal Electricity Market Heat

5 Energy Outlook Development Technology & Policy

6 Energy Outlook Development Trade Flows

7 Global Progress Drives Demand Population Billion GDP Trillion 2005$ Energy Demand Quadrillion BTUs Average Growth / Yr % Average Growth / Yr % Average Growth / Yr % Energy Saved ~500 Non OECD OECD

8 People s Living Standard Depends on Energy

9 People s Living Standard Depends on Energy

10 People s Living Standard Depends on Energy

11 Key Growth Countries Leading Economic Growth 2010 to 2040 Percent Share 2040 Energy Demand QUADS 60+ Countries Turkey Egypt China ~40% India ~15% Other 25% Key Growth 20% Thailand South Africa Nigeria Mexico Iran 10 Countries Saudi Arabia Indonesia Brazil

12 Global Urbanization & Major Cities (2010) 2010 Percentage Urban 0-50% 50-75% % 2010 City 10 million + Source: United Nations and ExxonMobil estimates

13 Global Urbanization & Major Cities (2040) 2040 Percentage Urban 0-50% 50-75% % 2010 City 10 million City 10 million + Source: United Nations and ExxonMobil estimates

14 Electricity Generation Leads Growth Energy Demand by Sector Quadrillion BTUs

15 Industrial

16 Industrial Energy Demand By Region Quadrillion BTUs By Sector Percent Share 2010 Other Rest of Non OECD Energy Industry India Heavy Industry China Chemicals OECD 2040

17 Industrial Energy Demand By Region Quadrillion BTUs By Fuel Percent Share 2010 Other Naphtha NGLs Rest of Non OECD India China Electricity Other Oil Coal OECD Gas 2040

18 Transportation

19 Light Duty Vehicle Efficiency Car Fleet by Type Million Cars Range of Average Vehicle Efficiency On-Road Miles per Gallon Average Fleet Europe U.S.

20 Transportation Demand Sector Demand MBDOE Commercial Transportation by Region MBDOE Rail Marine Aviation Heavy Duty Light Duty

21 Transportation Demand Sector Demand MBDOE Commercial Transportation by Region MBDOE Rail Marine Aviation Heavy Duty 2010 Light Duty

22 Transportation Fuel Demand Shifts to Diesel Non OECD MBDOE OECD MBDOE Other Natural Gas Fuel Oil Jet Fuel Biodiesel Diesel Ethanol Gasoline

23 Electricity generation

24 Electricity Demand Global Electrical Demand by Sector Thousand TWh Global Electrical Demand by Fuel Thousand TWh Other Industry Gas Heavy Industry Coal Commercial Nuclear Wind & Solar Transportation Residential Oil Other Renewables

25 Economic Choices for U.S. Electricity Plant Cost, Startup cents/kwh Baseload Intermittent Coal Reliability Cost* Reliability Cost* Gas $60/tonne of CO 2 $0/tonne Gas Coal Nuclear *Reliability cost includes integration, backup capacity and additional transmission costs. CCS Onshore Wind Solar PV Utility

26 United States Energy Demand and Supply By Sector Quadrillion BTUs By Fuel Quadrillion BTUs Res/Comm Industrial Other Renewables Biomass Nuclear Coal Electricity Generation Gas Transportation Oil

27 Energy Mix Continues to Evolve Quadrillion BTUs 0.7% % Average Growth / Yr % 0.0% 2.5% 0.4% 5.9% 2.0%

28 Emissions

29 CO 2 Emissions Plateau Energy-Related CO 2 Emissions by Region Billion Tonnes Emissions per Capita Tonnes / Person 2010 Asia Pacific 2040 Middle East Africa Latin America Russia/Caspian Europe North America

30 Thousands of BTUs per $ GDP (2005$) CO2 Emissions Relative to Efficiency & Fuel Mix Changes Non OECD = Billion tonnes CO OECD 1980 Tonnes of CO 2 per Billion BTUs

31 Supply

32 Liquids Supply Liquid Supply by Type MBDOE Crude and Condensate Resource* Trillion barrels of oil Biofuels Oil Sands Tight Oil Deepwater Other NGLs Remaining Resource Conventional Crude & Condensate Cumulative Production through 2040 * Source: IEA * Source: IEA

33 Liquids Supply by Region Change in Liquid Production by Region from 2010 to 2040 MBDOE North American Liquid Supply MBDOE Biofuels Oil Sands Tight Oil Deepwater Other NGLs Conventional Crude & Condensate

34 Gas Resources Abundant; Supply Diversifies Remaining Recoverable Resource* Thousand TCF Gas Production by Region BCFD Gas Production by Type BCFD Unconventional Africa Middle East Africa Middle East ROW AP NA Unconventional Asia Pacific Asia Pacific Russia/ Caspian Russia/ Caspian Conventional Europe Latin America Europe Latin America Conventional North America North America * Source: IEA 2012 * Source: IEA

35 Liquids Trade Russia/Caspian North America Europe Middle East Asia Pacific Latin America Africa MBDOE Net Exports Net Imports

36 Natural Gas Trade Russia/Caspian North America Europe Middle East Asia Pacific Latin America Africa BCFD Net Exports Net Imports

37 Conclusions

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