Climate, Land, Energy and Water Strategies (CLEWs) Examples of Integrated resource assessments at different scales

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1 WORKSHOP ON MODELLING THE WATER ENERGY NEXUS 13th December, Zurich Climate, Land, Energy and Water Strategies (CLEWs) Examples of Integrated resource assessments at different scales Vignesh Sridharan division of Energy Systems Analysis KTH Royal Institute of Technology

2 Assessing the climate, land, energy and water nexus Basic idea: the land, energy and water resource systems are highly integrated and any assessment of these resources should ideally treat them as such Conflicts Trade-offs Investigation of how resource systems interact, identifying nexus challenges. Provide policy support and analysing alternative development pathways/choices. Opportunities Synergies 18/12/2017 2

3 How do systems interact? 3

4 CLEWs Model example full integration Bazilian et. al.(2011) 18/12/2017 4

5 CLEWs Model example model linking Moksnes, /12/2017 5

6 Enhancing the Climate Resilience of Africa s Energy and Water Infrastructure Estimate the impacts of climate change on the performance of a subset of infrastructure over a range of climate scenarios 18/12/2017 6

7 Scope and reason? Climate Moisture Index (CMI) variations under different models 18/12/2017 7

8 Selected results A. Reference scenario B. Perfect foresight adaptation C. No adaptation D. Identification of financial regrets E. Choosing the robust strategy Annualised cost of electricity generation (USD/kWh) Tanzania Baseline Best Adaptation strategy No adpatation (driest climate) 18/12/2017 8

9 Nicaragua country-clews assessment: focus on the Pacific region KTH-dESA: Eunice Ramos, Vignesh Sridharan, Silvia Ulloa, Mark Howells UNDESA: Eduardo Zepeda, Thomas Alfstad

10 CLEWs assessment of Nicaragua 86% population 20% territory 6% surface water >70% supply by groundwater 18/12/

11 Nexus assessment focus on water systems Central Assess the impact of water availability on multiple users Pacifico To evaluate the opportunities and limitations of the use of biomass of sugar cane for the generation of electricity 18/12/2017 Atlántico Investigating the impact of hydropower expansion on water resources 11

12 Nicaragua - Pacific 12 Yield analysis conducted for the investigation of the potential production of sugarcane under different conditions: Different priorities for allocation of demand; Increased demand for domestic water in rural and urban areas; Three climatic futures taken into account: national precipitation projections provided by INETER; Precipitation and evapotranspiration using data from RCP2.6 and 8.5 scenarios. Assessing the opportunities and use of biomass of the sugar cane for the generation of electricity $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ % ( ( ( ( % % % % ( ( % 18/12/2017

13 CLEWs assessment of Nicaragua LAND USE CLIMATE WATER ENERGY 18/12/

14 Assessing the opportunities and limitations of the use of biomass of the sugar cane for the generation of electricity Yield(kg/ha) 160, , , ,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 - Comparison of historic yields model calibration MAG CNPA (national) FAO USDA GAIN WEAP Reference Potential exists for the expansion of electricity generation from bagasse in sugar mills: - sugar mills in the region produce enough electricity to meet their demand; - of interest for the development of the electricity generation sector. 18/12/

15 Sava River basin transboundary nexus assessment KTH-dESA: Eunice Ramos, Dimitris Mentis, Mark Howells, Vignesh Sridharan UNECE: Annukka Lipponen, Lucia de Strasser, Stephen Stec Photo credits:

16 Sava River Basin Transboundary CLEWs Aim: to assess water, energy and agriculture at a sub-regional level in a transboundary river basin context. Main issues: - Dependency between the basin water resources and the energy sector; - Hydropower expansion vs climate change and competing irrigation demand; - Electricity trade and water consumption in agriculture and for cooling systems; Source: UNECE, Second Assessment of Transboundary Rivers, Lakes and Groundwater. 18/12/

17 Sava River Basin - Balancing different water uses FLOW REGULATION TO ACCOUNT NOT ONLY HYDRO BUT ALSO COOLING THERMAL & NUCLEAR POWER EXPANSION OF IRRIGATION PLANNED INCREASED WATER SCARCITY PREDICTED NAVIGABILITY NEEDS TO BE ENSURED WETLANDS SERVE FLOOD PROTECTION SMALL AND MEDIUM HYDROPOWER DEVELOPMENT ON THE TRIBUTARIES 18/12/

18 Water use in the Sava River Basin Projected water use in the Sava River basin for 2015 (ISRBC, 2013) ME 2% SI 0% 208 Mm 3 RS 35% BA 27% HR 36% RS 70% ME 0% SI 23% HR 4% BA 3% [CATEGOR Y NAME] [PERCEN TAGE] [CATEGOR Y NAME] [PERCEN TAGE] [CATEG ORY NAME] [PERCEN TAGE] [CATEGOR Y NAME] [PERCEN TAGE] [CATEGOR Y NAME] [PERCEN TAGE] Mm Mm 3

19 Electricity generation capacity in the Sava River basin Installed capacity in the region in 2012 Outside SRB In SRB Hydro New hydropower plants projected in the basin. 47% 53% Thermal Thermal facilities being upgraded or decommissioned. OUTSIDE SRB HYDRO THERMAL The only nuclear power plant in the region is located in the basin. 9.3 GW outside 19.7 GW 10.4 GW in the basin

20 Sava River basin selected results (1) Electricity generation difference (PJ) Difference in electricity generation due to an increase in irrigation TOTAL Non-hydro RES TOTAL Fossil and Nuclear Thermal TOTAL Hydro Under a climate change scenario (RCP4.5), an increase in water demand for irrigation contribute to a reduction in hydropower production. The electricity demand is met with an increase in thermal generation. 18/12/

21 Sava River Basin Selected findings Higher levels of irrigation would reduce water availability for hydropower generation on some of the tributaries. Displacement of hydropower with alternative sources incurs costs and impacts greenhouse gas emissions. The impact of climate change will change needs for and dynamics of trade and investment in the basin. The effects include a redistribution of generation. Certain countries are likely to be able to generate more, and others less, hydropower. This affects investment, operation and trade in the region. The basin is central to electricity development in the region. A high proportion of new power plant investment in the riparian countries is expected to be interwoven with basin water. Thermal and nuclear power plants require water for cooling. By 2030 approximately 30% of new thermal power plants and 19% of new hydro plants of all riparian countries are expected to rely on Sava River basin water. 18/12/

22 Reference publication Summary of the transboundary nexus methodology See also: De Strasser et. al., A Methodology to Assess the Water Energy Food Ecosystems Nexus in Transboundary River Basins. Water, 8 (2), 59; doi: /w Summary of results of nexus assessments that have been carried out in the framework of the UNECE Water Convention s programme of work for in specific basin contexts: the Alazani/Ganykh in the Caucasus, the Sava in South- Eastern Europe and the Syr Darya in Central Asia.

23 Technical reports and policy briefs Syr Darya River Basin Sava River Basin Drina River Basin

24 Lessons learned - Capacity building and nexus dialogues - Essential to foster communication between sectors - Recognition of cross-sectoral and cross-border interactions and implications - Successful in highlighting the importance and contribution of science to policy design - Multidisciplinary stakeholder engagement and participation is key for the development of a nexus assessment: - Identification of pressures and challenges that are context-relevant - Facilitate access to data - Meaningfulness and acknowledgement of the importance of integrated assessment efforts - Mobilization of integrated planning exercises with in-house capacity and/or identification of training requirements 18/12/

25 Ongoing CLEWs projects - SIM4NEXUS, EU Horizon 2020 project with 24 European partners - Niger River Basin CLEWs, Formas funded project on integrated assessments across scales (from city to transboundary basin) - UNECE Transboundary nexus assessments (NWSAS, Drina 2) - FAO - Morocco and Jordan (national) - First CLEWs summer school in 2017 in Trieste, Italy (together wtih ICTP, UNDESA, Cambrigde, UNDP) - Country level capacity-building focused CLEWs projects in Nicaragua and Uganda, with UNDESA. 18/12/

26 OpTIMUS community Mission -> To promote quantitative analysis to inform sustainable development. It coordinates networks to advance open source software, knowledge development and capacity building: Practice 1: CAPACITY BUILDING Practice 2: ACADEMIC EXCELLENCE Practice 3: OPEN SOFTWARE 18/12/

27 Thank you! Vignesh Sridharan, Eunice Ramos, division of Energy Systems Analysis KTH Royal Institute of Technology WORKSHOP ON MODELLING THE WATER ENERGY NEXUS 13th December, Zurich

28 Useful links and papers Introduction to CLEWs and the Mauritius Case study: Global CLEWs featured in: Transboundary CLEWs, and CLEWs methodology (in collaboration with UNECE, 2015): An inventory of the nexus: UN's SDG Acceleration toolkit: 18/12/