MODELKEY DSS as supporting tool for River Basin Management Plan definition: results from application to Elbe and Danube

Transcription

1 MODELKEY DSS as supporting tool for River Basin Management Plan definition: results from application to Elbe and Danube Elena Semenzin 1, Stefania Gottardo 1,2, Peter von der Ohe 3, Jonathan Rizzi 1,2, Alex Zabeo 1, Andrea Critto 2, Antonio Marcomini 1,2 1 Consorzio Venezia Ricerche, Via della Libertà 5-12, Marghera-Venezia, Italy 2 Department of Environmental Sciences, University Ca Foscari of Venice, Italy 3 Helmholtz Centre For Environmental Research UFZ, Leipzig, Germany

2 Outline Legislative context: the Water Framework Directive (WFD) Supporting the WFD complexity: problems and solutions Decision Support System: definitions The MODELKEY DSS Results from Danube and Elbe river basins

3 Legislative context: WFD DIRECTIVE 2000/60/EC OF THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT AND OF THE COUNCIL of 23 October 2000 establishing a framework for Community action in the field of water policy A common legislative framework for Integrated Water Resource Management (IWRM) in Europe to be applied to all categories of water bodies, i.e. - surface inland waters (both rivers and lakes) - surface coastal and transitional waters - groundwater ( Daughter Directive)

4 WFD: timetable ASSESSMENT MONITORING MANAGEMENT

5 Problem & solution Such a complexity arising from WFD implementation is a challenge for water managers: - A large variety of data at different spatial and temporal scales. - Environmental and socio-economic perspectives. - Participation of all interested parties in decision making. Decision Support Systems (DSS) computerized systems that help decision makers in structuring and evaluating decisions by providing easy-to-use and integrated tools for information elaboration and displaying. (Shim et al., 2002; Loucks, 1995; Watkins and McKinney, 1995)

6 Decision Support System What is a DSS? A computerized tool that allows to generate, evaluate and making choices of alternatives to solve a complex decision problem (e.g. the assessment of river basin quality); take into account different information and data (i.e. environmental, socio-economic) in an integrated framework; include opinions and perceptions of stakeholders or decision-makers in the evaluation; automate the decision making process, making it flexible, repeatable, changeable, traceable and transparent.

7 Index value Decision Support System How does it work? A simple example: 1. I have a question/problem 2. I insert my data, based on DSS suggestions and guiding structure Comparison of scenarios by different indexes 1 Socio-economic index 0.8 Technologic index Risk index 0.6 Env. Impact 0.4 index Cost 0.2 Duration 0 Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 3. The included models are run and provide me with some answers/options 4. I can discuss the results

8 Decision Support System How does it look like? An example Easy Interface Textual guidelines Visualization maps Results by graphs Detailed results Bottoms for navigation

9 MODELs for assessing and forecasting the impact of environmental KEY pollutants on freshwater and marine ecosystems and biodiversity Project N GOCE MODELKEY project KEYTOX BASIN EXPO EFFECT SITE sub-projects 6 sub-projects 3 case studies DECIS TRAIN case studies Elbe, Scheldt, llobregat partners from 14 countries Coordination: UFZ, Leipzig, Germany

10 MODELKEY DSS MODELKEY DSS MAIN FEATURES It combines several risk-based assessment tools and methodologies into 3 modules. It is a generic model characterized by an open and flexible configuration enabling the integration of external assessment tools (i.e. indicators, models and databases). It is implemented into an open source GIS environment (udig: user-friendly, free of charge, offering multilanguage facilities). It provides best practices and links to other relevant sources of information.

11 MODELKEY DSS PROBLEM FORMULATION FRAMEWORK PRELIMINARY ASSESSMENT Existing data evaluation Environmental data Socio-economic data ENVIRONMENTAL STATUS AND IMPACTS ASSESSMENT DRIVING FORCES AND PRESSURES ANALYSIS WOE MCDA RRA MCDA PROCEDURE FOR INTEGRATED RISK ASSESSMENT Causes of impairmen t INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT ENVIRONMENTAL STATUS AND IMPACTS ASSESSMENT WOE Quality Status Index MCDA New data collection and evaluation Environmental Socio-economic data data Hazard Index ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF WATER USES Market and no-market valuation methods monitoring PROCEDURE FOR SOCIO-ECONOMIC EVALUATION Causes of impairmen t Quality Status Index Prioritizatio n Index HOT-SPOTS SELECTION GIS-based selection Socio-economic Indices Socio-economic characterization PROCEDURE FOR HOT SPOTS PRIORITIZATION Hot-spots MANAGEMENT

12 Environmental module CONCEPT The procedure aims at supporting water managers to realistically evaluate the ES of sampling sites by following a risk-oriented approach including uncertainty estimation. To this end information is organised and aggregated according to a set of inference rules that combines two mathematical operators: Minimum: i.e. OO-AA principle suggested by WFD (conservative and not compensative). Average: widely applied in environmental research (not conservative but compensative).

13 MODELKEY DSS APPLICATIONS DANUBE The longest river in the European Union and Europe's second longest river after the Volga. The river originates in the Black Forest in Germany as the much smaller Brigach and Breg rivers which join at the German town Donaueschingen, after which it is known as the Danube and flows eastwards for a distance of some 2850 km (1771 miles), passing through four Central and Eastern European capitals, before emptying into the Black Sea via the Danube Delta in Romania and Ukraine. The Danube River basin, comprising the Danube and its tributaries, has a catchment area of 817,000 km2. 6 habitat typologies with at least 1 reference site (Birk and van Kowen, 2009) The majority of the sites have biological, chemical and physico-chemical indicators calculated for 2007.

14 Lower Alpine Foothills Danube MODELKEY DSS DANUBE Ecological Status Hungarian Danube Bend Fuzzy method Pannonian Plan Danube Danube Delta Eastern Wallachian Danube Western Pontic Danube WFD one out all out

15 MODELKEY DSS Invertebrate fauna DANUBE - Biology Phytobenthos

16 MODELKEY DSS Chemical status (33 PP) DANUBE other QE Physico-chemistry Chemistry

17 MODELKEY DSS APPLICATIONS ELBE One of the major rivers of Central Europe. It originates in northwestern Czech Republic before traversing much of Bohemia (CZ), then Germany and flowing into the North Sea. Its total length is 1,094 km. The Elbe River basin, comprising the Elbe and its tributaries, has a catchment area of 148,268 km2, the fourth largest in Europe. 7 habitat typologies with at least 1 reference site (Organisch geprägte Bäche, Sandgeprägte Tieflandbäche, Sand-und lehmgeprägte Tieflandflüsse, Kiesgeprägte Tieflandbäche, Kiesgeprägte Tieflandflüsse, Grobmaterialreiche, Silikatische Mittelgebirgsbäche)

18 MODELKEY DSS Ecological status ELBE Chemical status (33 PP) Chemistry

19 PROMOTION MODELKEY DSS FURTHER DEVELOPMENTS At national and local level: to support water managers involved in WFD implementation in Italy. At EU level: to support the next RBMP cycles through further applications (e.g. link to AQUAREhab, link to WISER) Outside EU border: to support water management in other countries (e.g. link to E-URAL)

20 MODELKEY DSS RESEARCH NEEDS FURTHER DEVELOPMENTS Adaptation of the modules to be applied to coastal and transitional waters. Adaptation of existing modules and/or development of new modules to support assessment and management of impacts due to climate change and water bodies vulnerability.

21 Thank you for attention!