Methodological Frameworks for Assessing Vulnerability to Climate Change

Transcription

1 Methodological Frameworks for Assessing Vulnerability to Climate Change Abstract This paper establishes relationship between the issues like sensitivity, exposure, impacts, adaptation capacity to vulnerability and stresses the importance and need of vulnerability and adaptation assessment exercises. Other terminologies which we come across in vulnerability and adaptation assessments are discussed in brief. The various frameworks for climate change vulnerability assessment as mentioned in the compendium of methods by the UNDP and how the different existing frameworks are classified is enumerated, leading to analysis of the top down and bottom up framework, resulting in framing of the criteria for selection of the appropriate framework. The study examines various reports of IPCC, UNEP, UNFCC, and vulnerability assessment exercises done by different nations and agencies. 1. INTRODUCTION It has already been proved that the earth s atmospheric temperature has substantially increased by 1.8 C with a likely range of 1.1 C 2.9 C since 1970s (IPCC 4AR B1 scenario). Predominant reason for this climate change is the increase in concentration of Green House Gases in the atmosphere as a result of mainly anthropogenic and natural activities, which has caused significant climate variability in the past few decades. As per the different climate change reports of International Panel for Combating Climate Change (IPCC), the climate will change substantially in the coming few decades or earlier. This change in climate will have significant multiple influences on biophysical, socioeconomic and ecological systems. Impacts of climate change will vary from place to place and sector to sector. A system having greater sensitivity will be affected more by climate change or variability than one which is less sensitive. Similarly a system with good resilience or adaptive capacity will be able to accommodate the change more than others. Two nations with the same geographical and physiographical features will have different vulnerability to climate change depending upon its socio economic aspects. Thus, a developing country or a poor income country is more vulnerable to the climate change/variability phenomenon than a developed nation. A prior knowledge of vulnerability of the system and the ways to increase its adaptive Rekha S Nair, is planner and currently working as a lecturer in L.B. Hiray College of Architecture, Bandra, Mumbai and research scholar MANIT, Bhopal ( MP). srekha11@rediffmail.com Dr Alka Bharat, is a Ph.D in sustainable development and regional planning. She is a academician, researcher and urban planner with total professional, academic and research experience of more than 20 years. alka_bharat@yahoo.com 1

2 capacity will help to combat the climate change effectively. Vulnerability and adaptation assessments help to minimize the adverse impacts by means of deriving adaptation or mitigation strategies. 2. DEFINING VULNERABILITY Vulnerability in social sciences is... degree to which different classes in society are differentially at risk, both in terms of the probability of occurrence of an extreme physical event and the degree to which the community absorbs the effects of extreme physical events and helps different classes to recover (O Keefe et al, 1983). As per IPCC s definition of vulnerability, it is the degree to which a system is susceptible to or unable to cope with adverse effects of climate change including climate variability and extremes. Thus, vulnerability is a function of the character, magnitude, and rate of climate variation to which a system is exposed, its sensitivity, and its adaptive capacity. While increase in sensitivity and exposure increases the vulnerability, an increase in adaptive capacity will reduce the vulnerability of the system. This can be exemplified by taking the example of a coastal settlement which is at risk from flooding. The degree of vulnerability will be more if the area is densely packed with human habitation or if located on coastal delta. The vulnerability can be reduced by introducing adaptation measures like protecting the area by means of sea wall or by retreating from the flood prone area, etc. 2.1 Classification of vulnerability based on scale and disciplinary domain Vulnerability classification (Table 1) differs depending on the time for which vulnerability is assessed, scale of assessment (internal and external), disciplinary domain (socio economic and biophysical). If we are measuring the vulnerability within the system, it is internal vulnerability and if it is due to external forces or pressures, it is external vulnerability. 2.2 Different states of impact and vulnerability If the vulnerability assessment finds the vulnerability of an area after the adaptation and mitigation measures (pro-active adaptation), then that forms Table1 Classification of Vulnerability Based on Scale and Disciplinary Domain Domain Scale Socio economic Bio physical Internal Response Capacity Sensitivity Eg. House hold income, social Eg. Topography, environmental networks, access to information conditions, current climate External External social factors Exposure Eg. National policies, international aid Eg. Severe storms, earth quakes, sea level change Source: Fussel, Breslauer Symposium December 1,

3 the residual vulnerability of the system. Vulnerability assessed without considering any management activities forms the potential vulnerability of the system or vulnerability due to impacts. If the vulnerability assessment is done for the present climatic scenario, then it is the vulnerability due to climate variability and if it is for a future scenario it is vulnerability due to climate change. Vulnerability has always a negative effect on the system, while impacts can be positive or negative. Hence in any vulnerability assessment method, it is important to explicitly specify the context of the definitions. The exposure of the system (population, natural resources, etc.) to the aspects of climate change will decide how much will be the potential impacts. Vulnerability of the system is the potential impacts minus the adaptive capacity of the system. Thus the vulnerability of the system will increase if either the sensitivity or exposure or their combination will increase. When the adaptive capacity (wealth, technology, access to information, social capital, etc.) of the system increases its vulnerability to climate change will decrease. In order to decrease the vulnerability we have to adopt adaptation or mitigation strategies or both. 3. METHODOLOGICAL FRAME WORK FOR VULNERABILITY AND ADAPTATION ASSESSMENT 3.1 Vulnerability Assessments Vulnerability and assessment exercises are helpful in making any policy framework, planning infrastructural facilities, making disaster management plans, etc. Different policy questions will require different methodological approaches. Again the methodology will be decided on the basis of available tools and data. A more descriptive decision method is given at the end of the paper 3.2 Methodological Framework There is a variety of approaches, frameworks, methods and tools to assess impacts and vulnerability, and to prepare adaptation techniques. Similarly there are many ways to categorize vulnerability and adaptation assessments. Frameworks (Fig. 1) are step by step methods that prescribe an entire process for vulnerability assessment exercise. Each step might have different methods or toolkits for doing the assessment. These frameworks offer broad strategic approaches. Earlier works on climate change assessments were basically impact oriented. They are usually called first generation models. These research works mainly dealt with how great the impacts of climate change might be so as to know with how much urgency the mitigation agenda or the stabilization of Green House Gas (GHG) concentrations in the atmosphere to be done. The first generation models were generally based on General Circulation Models or 3

4 Fig. 1. Frame Work of Vulnerability Base Source UNFCC Workshop, Kenya 8-9, April 2008 Atmospheric Oceanic General Circulation Models. This was followed by the second order impact assessment models, which dealt with the modeling of impacts on economic sectors such as agriculture, forestry, etc. This was followed by combining present climate variability and resultant vulnerability along with future climate change and vulnerability. It has been started in recent years to assess the socioeconomic impacts of climate change and need of sustainable development. This change in emphasis has led to the development of a second generation of studies that begin with current climate variability and current adaptation (or the lack of adaptation or mal adaptation). In these empirical approach projections of future impacts, vulnerability, and adaptation are based on present conditions whereby new methods, frameworks, and guidelines are being developed to facilitate second order studies. Much of the work underway includes a blend of the first and second generation approaches and tools, and the research approaches are evolving rapidly. This has been associated with more sophisticated approaches to socioeconomic scenarios, stakeholder participation, adaptation policies and measures, and the assessment and strengthening of adaptation capacity. Some frameworks are partial or have particular research orientations that prescribe an approach to undertake an assessment (e.g. stakeholder analysis) and they can be applied at various stages of the assessment. Others are tools that are applicable to more than one sector and tend to address a particular stage of an assessment (e.g. GCM downscaling, socioeconomic scenario building, decision making). 4

5 4. TYPES OF FRAMEWORKS Approaches to vulnerability assessments can be categorized on the basis of Subject matter; Spatial scale; and Chronology of the assessments. General classification of vulnerability assessment frameworks is top down approaches and bottom up approaches. 4.1 Based on Subject Matter Based on subject matter vulnerability assessment can be classified into resilience driven, scenario driven and vulnerability driven. In scenario driven approach, various ranges of possible scenarios of future climate and socio economic systems are first constructed. Then a study of the system s response to these scenarios is done. This approach helps to understand the reactions of impacts from the most likely, worst scenario and mitigated scenarios. Impacts are estimated as the difference between two states, the initial system state and the responded system state to the scenario, environmental and socioeconomic conditions expected to exist over the period of analysis and the absence of climate change and those expected to exist with climate change. Example of scenario driven approach includes Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change in Small Island Developing States UNFCC. Vulnerability driven approaches are those in which understanding and reducing vulnerability is the main concern. Understanding and reducing vulnerability does not demand accurate predictions of the incidence of extreme events. The procedure may include the social and environmental causes of vulnerability and the adaptive or responding capacity of the system i.e. the sensitivity analysis. Example of a vulnerability driven approach is Vulnerability of Bangladesh to climate change and sea level rise NAPA, UNFCC In the case of resilience driven approaches increasing the resilience (recovery potential) of the system is the major objective. Usually this is done for entities which are presently under major threat or where the impacts have started to surface. Examples include Amazon Freshwater Resilience Project by WWF, and Mangroves and Coral Reefs Resilience Project. By WWF 2007 ( Based on Spatial Scale Depending on the scale or area covered in the assessment can be classified as global, regional, country level, district level assessments, etc. Usually the 5

6 classification is based on two types of scales i.e. global scale assessment and local scale assessments. Global assessments are those assessments conducted on a global scale. Example includes Hoozemans and Hulsbergen, C.H Sea-level rise: a worldwide assessment of risk and protection costs. In: Eisma, D. (ed.), Climate Change: Impact on Coastal Habitation; 2) IPCC Vulnerability Assessment Report. Vulnerability assessments conducted for any specific place belongs to local assessments. Example is the Historical and Projected Impacts of Sea Level Rise and Coastal Flooding in the NY Metro Area by Goddard Institute of Space studies (NASA); 2) Global Climate Change and Sea Level Rise: Potential Losses of Intertidal Habitat for Shorebirds. H. Galbraith, R. Jones, R. Park, J. Clough, S. Herrod- Julius, B. Harrington, and G. Page. 4.3 Based on Chronology of Assessments Exploratory vulnerability assessment and normative vulnerability assessments are the types of vulnerability assessments which are based on the chronology of occurrence. In exploratory scenario analysis the future is considered to be following the extrapolations of past trends and trend analysis is done. Such analyses are done at the initial stage of vulnerability assessment. Normative Fig. 2 Relation Between Top Down, Bottom Up Approach and Climate Adaptation Policy Desai and Hulme 2003 Source: 6

7 study is conducted as a second stage of assessment. This assessment yields the residual vulnerability after certain actions are undertaken (adaptive capacity is considered). 5. GENERAL CLASSIFICATION OF VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT 5.1 Top Down Approach and Bottom up Approach In general vulnerability assessment approach can be divided into top down frameworks and bottom up framework (Fig. 2). As per the IPCC report Topdown and bottom-up models are the two basic approaches to examine the linkages between the economy and specific GHG emitting sectors such as the energy system. The differences between their results are rooted in a complex interplay among the differences in purpose, model structure, and input assumptions. 5.2 Top Down Approach Impacts frameworks are sometimes referred to as the first generation or top down frameworks. They were mainly designed to help understand the potential long-term impacts of climate change, a probabilistic understanding of future changes. They use globally consistent frameworks and capture macro-economic and market feedbacks. These frameworks are most useful for national level assessments. Criticism of the top down approach is that the aggregate models applied in the top-down approach do not capture the sectoral details and complexity of demand and supply. The top down framework is usually done by sub-scaling the global models. Hence it is not very precise for regional scale assessments Examples include U.S. Country Studies Programme 1992: National V&A assessments as reported in the Initial National Communications of NAI (Non Annexure I) Parties to the Convention. 5.3 IPCC Technical Guidelines for Assessing Climate change and Impacts This is a framework based on top down approach (Fig. 3). The basic IPCC technical guidelines are an impact driven approach. Framework is divided into seven steps. Step 1: Definition of the problem Step 2: Selection of the method Step 3: Testing the Method Step 4: Selection of Scenario Step 5: Assessment of impacts 7

8 Fig. 3 Basic Frame Work of Top down Approach Source : UNFCC Workshop, Jakarta, 20 Mar - 24 Mar 2006 Steps 6 and 7: Assessment of autonomous adjustments and evaluation of adaptation strategies The result of the assessment will be the most suitable adaptation strategies for climate change. As this is a scenario driven approach, the climatic scenarios are taken as the major driver of impacts and adaptation strategies are designed as per it. This framework proposes a significant role for uncertain climate information in informing adaptation planning. This framework was later expanded to include socio-economic scenarios (Feenstra et al, 1998; also see UNFCC Compendium, 2008). 5.4 U.S. Country Studies Program The U.S. Country Studies Program gives methods and tools for assessing the impacts of climate change on coastal recourses, agriculture, livestock, water resources, human health, terrestrial vegetation wildlife and fisheries. The program also gives guidance to adaptation. This framework is based on the IPCC guidelines. 5.5 UNEP Handbook Methodology The UNEP handbook methodology gives the overview of different methods and models to design and conduct assessment studies of climate change impacts 8

9 Fig. 4 Basic Framework for Bottom Up Model Source: UNFCC Compendium Presented at Manila April and related adaptation measures. It describes different methods and tools which can be used while doing adaptation studies as per the IPCC technical framework. Knowledge of different methods, which can be used in the various steps or combinations, can help the researcher to select most suitable method. The handbook has the same chapters as the U.S. Country Studies Program but also includes a chapter on assessing the impacts of climate change on energy use. The UNEP Methodology is most useful at the national or sub national level. 5.6 Bottom-up Framework The adaptation frameworks, sometimes referred to as the second generation or bottom up frameworks (Fig. 4) have been designed to focus on adaptation and involve stakeholders. Compared to top down approaches, bottom up assessment approaches address near term concerns. Bottom-up assessment models examine technological options or project-specific climate change mitigation policies. They emphasize specific technologies and regulations. Bottom-up studies are useful for the assessment of specific policy options at the sectoral level thus assessing how to enhance local capacity. It involves community and private sector assessment initiatives and implementation mechanisms. It also encourages stakeholder consultations at each level of assessment. More of traditional knowledge is used and for analysis informal techniques are used. Examples: UNDP Adaptation Policy Framework (APF); NAPA Guidance; UKCIP Risk, Uncertainty, and Decisionmaking Framework VARA ( vara/). 9

10 Fig. 5 UNEP Adaptation Policy Framework Source: Adaptation policy frameworks for climate change: Developing strategies policies and measures, UNDP, 5.7 UNEP Adaptation Policy Framework The Adaptation Policy Framework (APF) (Fig. 5) provides guidance on designing and implementing projects that reduce vulnerability to climate change by both reducing potential negative impacts and enhancing any beneficial consequences of a changing climate. It seeks to integrate national policy making efforts and adaptation to climate change with a bottom-up movement. The framework emphasizes five major principles: (a) adaptation policy and measures are assessed in a developmental context; (b) adaptation to short-term climate variability and extreme events are explicitly included as a step toward reducing vulnerability to long-term change; (c) adaptation occurs at different levels in society, including the local level; (d) the adaptation strategy and the process by which it is implemented are equally important; (e) building adaptive capacity to cope with current climate is one way of preparing society to better cope with future climate. The APF is particularly applicable where the integration of adaptation measures into broader sector specific policies, economic development, poverty reduction objectives, or other policy domains are desirable. All sectors and all regions, particularly developing countries can increase adaptive capacity through prioritized adaptation strategies that can be incorporated into development plans. The adaptation policy framework starts with scoping the problem, and ends with adaptation policy framework components. Scoping means fitting of the framework in an existing policy framework like the national development policy, 10

11 etc. Scoping is succeeded by assessing the current vulnerability for the present climate variability and future climate change. Assessment of future climate risks is done with the help of scenarios. This is followed up by developing strategies for climate risks factors and continuous monitoring during their implementation. The APF is a flexible approach in which the five steps may be used in different combinations according to the amount of available information and the point of entry to the project. The adaptation policy framework is a bottom up approach which starts from the local level and integrates with the national development policies or programs. Instead of treating adaptation projects separately, they are incorporated with development policy guidelines, thus, placing adaptation in a development context. The adaptation measures for present climate variability are considered to be a part of the ongoing process for climate change. Its salient features are: Bottom up approach; Adaptation to climate change in development context and coordinating with current development policies and future proposals; Adaptation for present climatic variability and future climatic change; Integration of assessments across sectors and scales; Self sustaining stakeholder process; Increased national capacity for adaptation assessment; and Recommendation of adaptation strategies policies and measures. 5.8 National Policy for Action (NAPA) Guidance Programme NAPA is a programme for least developed countries (LDCs) to address their current and urgent adaptation needs. Countries are required to rank adaptation measures for funding by the LDC Fund and other sources based on such criteria as urgency and cost-effectiveness. The NAPA Guidelines are not themselves a detailed framework (Fig. 6) for the assessment of vulnerability and adaptation. Instead, they provide some guidance for the process of compiling a document that specifies priority adaptation actions in the LDCs. The Guidelines outline some guiding elements that inform this process and sketch out a process; however, they fall short of providing a structured framework. It helps in relatively rapid prioritization of adaptation options, which can be useful for all regions and sectors. The goal of NAPA is to lay out a plan of action about how to build capacity to adapt to climate change and how to enhance coping strategies to adverse impacts of climate and climate change. Apart from other assessment methodologies, emphasis is placed on least developed countries and rural communities. Like APF this is also a bottom up approach. Here emphasis is placed on the traditional knowledge of adaptation strategies. Like most other bottom up frameworks major stakeholder groups are involved and unlike 11

12 Fig. 6 Basic Frame Work of NAPA Source : Bottom up approaches to V&A Assessment, UNFCC adaptation policy framework in which the preliminary step is to fit the framework in any development policies, here in the NAPA first activities or projects are prepared and incorporated with national policy frameworks. This is an action oriented plan in which the final product should be concise and well justified list of actions to address priority vulnerabilities for the country, or to build capacity 12

13 to address the vulnerability. The NAPA approach enables communities and stakeholders in countries to have an active role in enhancing adaptive capacity. The guiding elements imply that the NAPA process should emphasize: (a) a participatory approach involving stakeholders, (b) a multidisciplinary approach, (c) a complementary approach that builds on existing plans and programs, (d) sustainable development, (e) gender equity, (f) a country driven approach, (g) sound environmental management, (h) cost-effectiveness, (i) simplicity, and (j) flexibility based on country specific circumstances. In the NAPA process, much of the work of assessing vulnerability and adaptation is intended to be drawn from existing sources. The Guidelines do stress the importance of conducting a participatory assessment of vulnerability to current climate variability and extreme events as a starting point for assessing increased risk due to climate change. Its salient features include: Involves stakeholder consultation particularly for LDCs; Bottom up approach; Helps in finding priority action for adaptation; and Emphasis on traditional knowledge of adaptation strategies. 5.9 Integrated Top Down and Bottom Up approach This is a new approach (Fig. 7) which has been developed in recent times. This helps in Fig. 7 Basic Frame Work for Integrated Topdown Bottom up Approach Source : UNFCC Workshop, Jakarta 20 Mar - 24 Mar

14 Integrated Community and Private Sector Level Assessment; and Implementation - Utilizing mechanisms and undertaking pilot projects 6. DECIDING ON VULNERABILITY AND ADAPTATION ASSESSMENT FRAMEWORK As already mentioned there are different types of frameworks for vulnerability and adaptation assessment. The choice of the assessment depends upon for what purposes the assessment is being conducted. The main objectives are dealing with the purpose of assessment, the targeted users, the information expected from the assessment, etc. 6.1 Practical Considerations for Vulnerability Adaptation Assessments Understanding about the various frameworks, methods and tools is a must in doing a vulnerability assessment. This will help to select the appropriate tool for the assessment. A good top down approach assessment should find out the probable biophysical and socioeconomic impacts for a given scenario and a bottom up approach assessment should help in participation of all the stakeholders in the assessment process and tries to get their opinion. Yield results (i.e. profiles, assessments, analyses) that are relevant for decisionmakers and information that is clear, understandable and useful for all actors. Prioritize resolving urgent problems and continuous monitoring should be done during preparation and implementation phases. Designing adaptation policies should be the main concern and experts should try to incorporate them with existing development plans. 7. CONCLUSIONS Vulnerability assessment exercises are of different types based of the different requirements of the users. A proper description of the term has to be given before conducting the exercise. Out of the different methodological frameworks for vulnerability assessment exercises, select methods and models that are most appropriate for the requirement. Selection of framework depends upon the needs of the decision makers and no particular framework is superior to other. Frameworks which include participation of stakeholders at each level can avoid future conflicts. Prioritizing adaptation options will help in proper resource management. A multi sectoral integrated approach of vulnerability and adaptation assessment is better than sector specific with due consideration to be given to specific sector under threat. It is always better to adopt a combination of top-down and bottom-up approaches. REFERENCES A tool for assessing sea level rise impacts in Baltic sea region article.php?id=66 14

15 Bottom Up approach to Vulnerability Assessment non-annex_i_natcom/cge/application/vnd.ms-powerpoint/bottom-up_approaches.pps Bottom up approaches to V&A assessment: Practical considerations Youssef Nassef Head, Adaptation Sub-programme UNFCCC Secretariat Compendium on methods and tools to evaluate impacts of, and vulnerability and adaptation to, climate change, UNFCC Secretariat nairobi_workprogramme/compendium_on_methods_tools/items/2674.php Concepts, frameworks and methodologies for vulnerability and adaptation assessments Manuel Winograd (CIAT, Colombia)Module II. EM2_Concepts_frameworks_methodologies.pdf Enda capacity development training for vulnerability assessment. \frame works tool kits models\training epda\module 2\module2_e.html Fussel: Vulnerability in Climate Change Research breslauer/6 Global Climate Change and Sea Level Rise: Potential Losses of Intertidal Habitat for Shorebirds H. Galbraith,2 R. Jones,3 R. Park,4 J. Clough,4 S. Herrod-Julius,5 B. Harrington,6 and G. Page7. pdfs/ pdf Hands-on Training Workshop on Vulnerability and Adaptation for Asian and Pacific Countries Jakarta, Indonesia php Ian Burton, Elizabeth Malone, Saleemul Huq, Adaptation policy frameworks for climate change: Developing strategies policies and measures, UNDP. documents/publications/apf-front-matter_contents_foreword.pd Managing Current and Future Climate Risks Frank Sperling VARG Secretariat / World Bank fsperling@worldbank.org. NAPA Workshop STEP_3_4_Presentation_NAPA_vulnerability_overview.pdf Susman, O Keefe et al Vulnerability: Concepts and Issues. JamesPersonalWebsite/Ford2002.pdf The Climate Change LEADS Project: Increasing resilience in coral reefs and the people who depend on them. United States Environmental protection agency. 15