The Taiwanese Economy

Transcription

1 The Taiwanese Economy 215 CCIFT General Assembly April 9, 215 1

2 The Taiwanese economy in a few words Key figures A DYNAMIC ECONOMY TAIWAN, 5 th ECONOMIC POWER IN ASIA 214 GDP Growth: +3,74% World s 14 th most competitive economy (WEF) World s 13 th dynamic economy (IMD) World s 5 th currency reserve (418 bn USD, Feb. 215) A LARGE POTENTIAL 64% services, 34% industry, 2% agriculture 23,1 M population with high revenues (Asia s 5th GDP per capita: USD ) World s 27 th economy, Asia s 6 th economy (214) A PROMISING MARKET A regional hub to Mainland China World s 18 th importer of goods (27 bn USD in 213) April 9, 215 2

3 Taiwan in the globalized economy Taiwan, 6 th Asian Economy India 2,48 (1 th ) Japan 4,77 (3 rd ) China PIB : 1,355 Mds USD (2 nd ) Korea 1,34 (14 th ) Indonesia 87 (16 th ) Taiwan 53 (27 th ) Source: IMF, 214 Thailand 387 (3 th ) Malaysia 313 (35 th ) Singapore 298 (36 th ) Hong Kong 274 (39 th ) Philippines 272 (4 th ) April 9, 215 3

4 The economic situation in Taiwan Taiwan s economic recovery , ,44 6,52,7-1,57 3,8 2,6 2,23 3,74 Contributions to Economic Growth (p) Private final consumption Government final consumption Investment Stock variation Foreign Trade Economic growth rate Source : DGBAS The main economic indicators Inflation Unemployment Growth April 9, 215 4

5 Contributions to Economic Growth Rate (by quarters *) 5 4,32 4 3,41 3,87 3,35 3,5 3,93 3,76 3, Q1-214 Q2-214 Q3-214 Q4-214 Q1-215(p) Q2-215(p) Q3-215(p) Q4-215(p) Private final consumption Government final consumption Investment Stock variation Foreign Trade Economic growth rate Source : DGBAS (*) : forecast for 215 (updated on Feburary 16th 215) April 9, 215 5

6 The major role of the industrial sector Composition of GDP by economic sectors Agriculture/Mines Industry Services GDP by economic sectors Industry accounts for 34% of GDP in 214 Source : DGBAS/MOEA GDP by kind of activity Services 64,1% Agriculture 1,9% Industry 34,1% (1) Includes accommodation and food services, professional, scientific and technical services, support services, education, human health and social work services, arts, entertainment and recreation, other services, import duties and value-added tax. April 9, 215 6

7 Key economic indicators for Q1 214Q2 214Q3 214Q (f)* Economic Growth 2,23% 3,41% 3,87% 4,32% 3,35% 3,74% 3,78% Inflation,79%,8% 1,63% 1,51%,84% 1,2%,26% Unemployment 4,18% ,96% 3,7% Private final consumption (yoy) Investment (GFCF) (yoy) Government final consumption (yoy) 2,35% 2,37% 3,3% 3,76% 2,39% 2,96% 3,12% 4,98%,94% 1,63% 4,83% -,42% 1,74% 3,76% -1,15% 4,17% 2,35% 3,89% 3,5% 3,35% -1,28% Exports (FOB) 1,41%,96% 2,86% 6,67%,45% 2,74% 1,2% Imports (CIF) -,21% -1,64% 3,77% 7,7% -3,23% 1,6% -2,7% Balance (Bn USD) 35,5 6,5 9,7 1,2 13,2 39,6 48,4 Source : DGBAS (*) : forecast for 215 (updated on Feburary 16th 215) April 9, 215 7

8 Taiwan s Foreign Trade Exports are driving the Taiwanese economy Exports Imports Balance of Trade In 214, exports have reached 314 bn USD (+2,7%), imports 274 bn USD (+1,6%), for a trade surplus of 4 bn USD (+11,4%) Source: DGBAS, BOFT April 9, 215 8

9 Domestic Investment (f) Investment growth rate by category Private Enterprises Public Enterprises Government Source : DGBAS, February Production Index of Manufacturing Investment Goods Import of Capital Goods (in USD, RHS) (f) -2 Savings/GNP Investment/GNP Savings-Investment/GNP -2-4 April 9, 215 9

10 Employment Employed persons by sector Number of employees per industry Agriculture; 5% Industry; 36% Services; 59% Source : DGBAS, February % Unemployment rate by age (214) Unemployment rate by Educational Attainment (214) 12% 6% 1% 5% 8% 4% 6% 3% 4% 2% 2% 1% % 15~19 2~24 25~29 3~34 35~39 4~44 45~49 5~54 55~59 6~64 65 & over % Primary school & below Junior high Senior high Vocational Junior college University & graduate school April 9, 215 1

11 Household Income Monthly Earning of Employees (NT$) 6% 4% 2% % -2% -4% % Source: DGBAS, February 215 Earnings Growth April 9,

12 Industrial Production 15 Indexes of Principal Manufacturing Production Metal & Machinery Industry Information & Electronic Industry Chemistry Industry Food, Textile & Other Industry April 9,

13 s of these and low oil prices and continuous launches of consumer electronic Private consumtion cts are expected to boost private consumption. te consumption is projected to rise by 3.12% in 215, higher than 2.96% in the ous year. % forecast 1 year f Source: DGBAS, Feb Source: DGBAS, February Indicators for Private Final Consumption Expenditure (%) Sales of Retail Trade Sales of Eating-Drinking places New Registered Private Cars (RHS) April 9,

14 Exchange Rates and Oil Prices 115 BIS effective exchange rate Taiwan Euro area France Japan Korea United States 32, Exchange rates TWD/USD 31,5 31, 3,5 3, 29,5 29, 214/1 214/2 214/3 214/4 214/5 214/6 214/7 214/8 214/9 214/1214/11214/12 215/1 215/2 215/3 Source: Central Bank of Taiwan April 9,

15 Taiwan s Foreign Trade Contribution to imports & exports by trade partners Oceania; 3,3% Middle East; 14,7% Taiwanese imports by origin in 214 Latin America; 2,4% Europe; 11,2% North America; 1,6% Africa; 2,7% Asia; 55,1% Mainland China & HK: 18,1% Japan: 15,2% Asean-6: 12,2% EU 28: 8,9% Taiwanese exports by destination in 214 Latin America; 2,% Middle East; 2,6% Europe; 9,2% Oceania; 1,4% Mainland China & HK: 39,7% Japan: 6,3% Asean-6: 18,7% EU 28: 8,4% Africa;,9% North America; 11,9% Asia; 7,9% Source : MOF, BOFT April 9,

16 France s foreign trade with Taiwan French imports from Taiwan in 214 Total Trade in 214 : 3,8 bn EUR ( France, 22 nd trade partner of TW) French imports : 2,25 bn EUR (24 th client of TW) French Exports : 1,6 bn EUR (2 th supplier of TW) 647 M EUR of Trade deficit Commodities Value K euros (growth yoy) Computers, electronics and optical products (-8,3%) Machineries and electrical equipments (+6,4%) Other industrial products (+3,1%) Basic metals and articles thereof (+11,9%) Vehicles, Aircraft, Vessels and associated transport equipment (+3,9%) Chemicals, Perfumes and Cosmetics 9 36 (-1,%) Others (-6,1%) Agroprocessing Industry (-33,8%) Natural Hydrocarbon, other products from (-29,5%) extractive industries, electricity, waste Produits agricoles, sylvicoles, de la pêche et de (+1,%) l aquaculture Products based on refined oil & coke 16 (-1,%) Vehicles, Aircraft, Vessels and associated transport equipment; 9,6% Basic metals and articles thereof; 12,6% Chemicals, Others; Perfumes and,9% Cosmetics; 4,% Other industrial products; 13,6% Machineries and electrical equipments; 14,1% Agroprocessing Industry;,4%Natural Hydrocarbon, other products from extractive industries, electricity, waste;,2% Computers, electronics and optical products; 44,5% Produits agricoles, sylvicoles, de la pêche et de l aquaculture;,1% Products based on refined oil & coke;,% Total Source : French Customs April 9,

17 France s foreign trade with Taiwan French exports to Taiwan in 214 Commodities Vehicles, Aircraft, Vessels and associated transport equipment Value K euros (growth yoy) (-4,1%) Other industrial products (+8,9%) Chemicals, Perfumes and Cosmetics (+12,8%) Agroprocessing Industry (+9,8%) Computers, electronics and optical products (-38,5%) Machineries and electrical equipments (+4,4%) Basic metals and articles thereof (+6,1%) Others (+37,4%) Produits agricoles, sylvicoles, de la pêche et de l aquaculture (+9,5%) Basic metals and articles thereof; 4,9% Machineries and electrical equipments; 7,7% Computers, electronics and optical products; 13,4% Agroprocessing Industry; 14,4% Products based on refined oil & coke;,5% Others; 1,5% Chemicals, Perfumes and Cosmetics; 16,1% Produits agricoles, sylvicoles, de la pêche et de l aquaculture;,8% Vehicles, Aircraft, Vessels and associated transport equipment; 2,8% Natural Hydrocarbon, other products from extractive industries, electricity, waste;,3% Other industrial products; 19,6% Products based on refined oil & coke (+3,9%) Natural Hydrocarbon, other products from extractive industries, electricity, waste (-29,4%) Total Source : French Customs April 9,

18 Conclusion Solid recovery in 214 and 215 Growth is driven by surge in external demand for ICT/electronic products Geographically, strong demand from the US and Europe (consumer electronics and machinery) Decline of oil price will boost Taiwan s GDP growth and widen trade surplus Low inflation environment Robust private consumption Competitiveness of currency under control Strong exposure of Taiwan s supply chain to product cycles of the electronic industry Households income remains an issue April 9,