NOAA Climate Services & Alaska

Transcription

1 NOAA Climate Services & Alaska Amy Holman Regional Coordinator NOAA Alaska Regional Collaboration Team American Water Resources Association May 5, 2009

2 Outline Climate Change and Water Resources Key Components of a National Climate Service Existing i Plans for Alaska Heavy Rain Events -13% 15% 0%

3 Why does climate change matter to water resources managers? Physical Impacts Temperature Primary/Secondary Impacts (examples) Early melting of snow pack Higher evaporation rates Potential Impacts on Water Resource Planning Adjustment in water cycle calendar Change in reservoir levels and irrigation requirements Drought Change in soil moisture Reduction of river flow Use of agricultural lands Decrease in water supply for hydroelectricity generation and residential use Flood Sewage overflow Future location of water treatment plants Increased runoff Water and/or sewage treatment plant overload Sea Level Rise Submergence of low-lying land Species and habitat loss Salt water intrusion Impact on drinking water and infrastructure planning Other Extreme Event (e.g., hurricane) Power outages Damage to water treatment plants Disruption of public water supply Emergency planning for water quality and health 3

4 NOAA s broad-based climate services capabilities Experience has shown that connections between climate scientists and stakeholders are most effective at the local, regional, statewide, and multistate scales at which the stakeholders operate. - Ed Miles (PNAS, 2006) 4

5 NOAA monitors heavy and extreme precipitation OBSERVED Heaviest 1% of all events have increased by: Urgent need to provide climate information about changing extremes for public safety purposes and infrastructure projects. Projected Change in Precipitation Intensity, Observed increase in heavy precipitation is not expected to abate 5

6 Supporting Decision Relevant Time Scales A continuum that t crosses many time and spatial scales 30 DAYS 1 4 SEASONS >1 YEAR 10 YEARS 30 YEARS 100 YEARS SHORT-TERM- Seasonal INTERANNUAL- Multi-year DECADE-TO- CENTURY Modeledtrendsin runofffor2041for relative to U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook April 2, 2009 June 2009 The future ( ) 6

7 U.S. Drought Monitor Interagency Partners: NWS/CPC USDA/JAWF NDMC NCDC Other Experts: USGS State Climos RCCs NWS Hydros Media Post Thursday AM Emergency managers Federal, state and local government Public

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10 National Climate Service Goal & Key Components Goal Provide the essential climate change information needed for effective decisionmaking Key Components A partnership with other federal agencies, various levels of government, and the private sector

11 National Climate Service Scientific Basis Federal Climate Research Agencies will continue work on: climate observing systems and effective data management and delivery systems; problem focused research and a close coupling with fundamental climate change research that establishes scientific credibility of evolving products; climate modeling for predictions and projections; and local, regional, national, and international assessments of climate change.

12 National Climate Service Core Services ongoing, g, deliberate dialogue with users to understand evolving needs, climate tools and other products at scales relevant to support user decision making; user outreach and capacity building; and public understanding. di

13 National Climate Service Roles Federal Government develop and maintain an infrastructure of observation and information services on which the public (federal, state, and local governments), private, and academic sectors will rely Private Sector use data collected by this infrastructure to create unique products and services tailored to the needs of their company or clients.

14 National Climate Service Guiding Principles provide balanced, credible, cutting edge scientific and technical information; focus on human caused climate change, but link human caused climate change and changes in natural variability, such as the frequency and duration of droughts, to meet broad user needs; provide and contribute to science based products and services to minimize climate related l risks; ik provide predictions and projections of climate at scales relevant to decision support; strengthen observations, standards, and data stewardship; ensure timely assessments; improve regional and local projections of climate change; inform policy options; inform decisions and management options of others; and foster climate literacy and workforce development; and engage a diversity of users in meaningful ways to ensure their needs are being met.

15 National Climate Service Development NOAA will continue providing leadership White House Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) to lead an interagency process to analyzecapacities and options Council on Environmental Quality, OSTP andnoaa to prepare a federal adaptation strategy

16 Climate Services Portal easy, one-stop access to NOAA climate science information on-line an extensible and distributed approach to education and communications allowing our partners to use NOAA s climate content in their own education and outreach programs and products.

17 Education The Climate Science Literacy Guide serves as a framework for understanding and communicating about climate science. It provides an outline of the knowledge deemed important for individuals and communities to know and understand about Earth s climate.

18 Plans for Alaska Increasing Observations Increasing Observations Temperature and Precipitation Sea Level Change Accessing Data, Information & Services Alaska Climate Change Network Regional Climate Center

19 Temperature and Precipitation Existing Climate Reference Network Stations (Green Dots)

20 Temperature and Precipitation Planned Climate Reference Network Stations (Red Dots)

21 Temperature and Precipitation Historical Climate Network Station (Yellow Dots)

22 Temperature and Precipitation Future Coverage of CRN and HCN Stations

23 Coastal Benchmarks: Adding 29 new tide and water level stations Sea Level Change

24 Sea Level Change Geodetic Control 2017 Targets: Orthometric heights good to 2 cm anywhere, anytime from GNSS technology Height changes easily monitored using new vertical datum

25 Hydrology

26 Regional Climate Partnership Establish an Alaska Climate Change Knowledge Network (ACCKN) with the following functions: Provide means to organize, archive when needed, and inventory data and other resources pertinent to understanding climate change and its effects in Alaska. Provide online access to the above dt data, information, and knowledge in ways that facilitates its use. Identify and communicate to information providers the information that communities need in order to understand and plan for climate change. Provide means to share information i on specific geographic areas of concern such as the Arctic. Provide means to incorporate community and other entities (e.g., the private sector) data, information, and knowledge about the effects of climate change. Provide a point of coordination i with ihnoaa efforts to develop a Regional Climate Center in Alaska.

27 Regional Climate Center Services Provided By RCCs: Direct contact with users provided by fulltime User Service Climatologists Public access climate information web sites Climate services delivered via web interfaces and direct customer interaction Contractual agreements with public and private customers that includes consulting meteorologists and climatologists Regional expertise on climate patterns, trends, and variability

28 Regional Climate Center Functions of RCCs: Service To NOAA And Other Federal Agencies Applied Research Operational Support Development Climate Data Stewardship

29 Additional Information Needed Volume and Quality Permafrost Impact of Freshwater Changes on Ecosystems

30 Thank You Amy Holman Regional Coordinator NOAA Alaska Regional Collaboration Team 222 West 7 th Ave, Suite 23 Anchorage, AK amy.holman@noaa.gov