Flooding and coastal change risks from the Climate Change Risk Assessment

Transcription

1 Independent advice to government on building a low-carbon economy and preparing for climate change Thursday 22 nd March 2018 Flooding and coastal change risks from the Climate Change Risk Assessment Dr Andy Russell Adaptation Sub-Committee secretariat, Committee on Climate Change

2 The Adaptation Sub-Committee of the Committee on Climate Change Statutory roles in the 2008 Climate Act: To provide independent, expert advice on the UK climate change risk assessment (advisory role) To report to Parliament on progress with implementation of the NAP (England only - scrutiny role) Baroness Brown of Cambridge (chair) Prof Mike Davies Ece Ozdemiroglu Prof Jim Hall Prof Dame Georgina Mace Rosalyn Schofield

3 The UK climate change adaptation policy cycle The Climate Change Act puts in place a statutory: - UK climate change risk assessment (CCRA: every five years) - National Adaptation Programme (NAP: every five years) The ASC: - Provides advice on the risk assessment (every five years) - Scrutinises the National Adaptation Programme (every two years)

4 What are the risks?

5 The 6 priority areas and how they were determined Priorities for further adaptation action from 2018 are set out in the 2 nd UK Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA2) Flooding and coastal change risks to communities, businesses and infrastructure Risks to health, wellbeing and productivity from high temperatures Risk of shortages in the public water supply, and for agriculture, energy generation and industry Risks to natural capital, including terrestrial, coastal, marine and freshwater ecosystems, soils and biodiversity MORE ACTION NEEDED Risks to domestic and international food production and trade New and emerging pests and diseases, and invasive non-native species, affecting people, plants and animals NOW RISK MAGNITUDE: LOW MEDIUM HIGH FUTURE RESEARCH PRIORITY 5

6 Sea level rise Globally, the last century s amount of sea level rise set to be repeated by 2040 Largely regardless of future greenhouse gas emissions Overall a metre of sea level rise by 2100 is plausible More depending on rate of Greenland and Antarctic ice sheet melt 15cm 15cm Source: (a) NOAA/NCDC, (b) IPCC Fifth Assessment

7 Storm surges 7

8 Changing precipitation patterns Efforts to address surface water flooding need to increase Days per year with UK areal-average daily rainfall exceeding 95th percentile (9.5mm) and 99th percentile (13.9mm) Source: Met Office (2017) State of UK Climate 2016 There is evidence that rainfall patterns in the UK are intensifying. The existing drainage and sewerage network is already under severe pressure in some areas. Responsibility for dealing with this issue is fragmented. There are no plans currently in place to prepare for the long-term investment that will be needed. New development is increasing the risk of surface water flooding. 8

9 Coastal erosion 9

10 Summary of risks and opportunities 10

11 Flooding risks from CCRA2 11

12 Risks from flooding and coastal change HIGH MAGNITUDE HIGH CONFIDENCE MORE ACTION NEEDED Dawlish, winter 2013 New sheltered housing development, built 2012 Folkestone, December

13 Flooding risks from CCRA2 13

14 What progress is being made?

15 The National Adaptation Programme Published in July 2013 Six themes Built environment Infrastructure Healthy & resilient communities Agriculture & forestry Natural environment Business 31 objectives 370+ actions 15

16 Results of ASC 2017 assessment of adaptation in England Despite areas of progress, more priorities flagged as red compared to 2015 Summary of progress by the National Adaptation Programme Is there a plan? Are actions taking place? Is progress being made? Built Environment Infrastructure Healthy & Resilient communities Agriculture & Forestry Natural Environment Business 0 100% 0 100% 0 100% Proportion of adaptation priorities 16

17 Flood risk management RAG scores Adaptation priority Is there a plan? Are actions taking place? Is progress being made? River and coastal flood alleviation Development in areas at risk of river and coastal flooding Property-level flood resilience Surface water flood alleviation Development and surface water flood risk 17

18 25 Year Environment Plan In 2019, we will update the national flood and coastal erosion risk management strategy, looking to strengthen joint delivery across organisations. The Environment Agency will use its role in statutory planning consultations to seek to make sure that new developments are flood resilient and do not increase flood risk. In addition, we will also focus on: i) Using more natural flood management solutions where appropriate; ii) Increasing the uptake of sustainable drainage systems, especially in new developments; and iii) Improving the resilience of properties at risk of flooding and the time it takes them to recover should flooding occur. 18

19 What still needs to be done?

20 Is progress being made in managing vulnerability? 10 specific areas of concern Whilst a significant risk, the ASC concluded that there is a plan and progress is being made in relation to river and coastal flooding Top 10 areas of concern in the ASC s report Development and surface water flood risk (n/a) Soil health and carbon sequestration ( ) Property-level flood resilience (n/a) Surface water flood alleviation ( ) Resilience of terrestrial habitats ( ) Resilience of freshwater habitats ( ) Biodiversity in the farmed countryside ( ) Health impacts from heat and cold (n/a) Commercial fisheries and aquaculture (new) RED AMBER GREEN GREY None RED a plan? AMBER GREEN Development and surface water flood risk (n/a) Soil health and carbon sequestration ( ) Health impacts from heat and cold (n/a) Commercial fisheries and aquaculture (new) Resilience of digital and ICT infrastructure ( ) Is there Property-level flood resilience (n/a) Surface water flood alleviation ( ) Resilience of terrestrial habitats ( ) Resilience of freshwater habitats ( ) Biodiversity in the farmed countryside ( ) Marine and coastal habitats (n/a) Resilience of port and airport infrastructure ( ) Infrastructure interdependencies ( ) Business supply chain interruptions ( ) Business opportunities from climate change ( ) Water demand in the built environment ( ) Crops and livestock (n/a) None None Development in areas at river and coastal flood risk (n/a) Capacity of people to recover from flooding ( ) Coastal change risk management (new) Pathogens, air quality and UV radiation ( ) Effectiveness of emergency planning system ( ) Water management in the natural environment (n/a) Commercial forestry ( ) Design and location of new infrastructure ( ) Resilience of road and rail infrastructure ( ) Business impacts from extreme weather ( ) River and coastal flood alleviation ( ) Resilience of water and energy infrastructure ( ) Water demand by industry ( ) None Resilience of digital and ICT infrastructure ( ) Increased concern since 2015 same as 2015 (n/a) scope of assessment changed (new) not assessed in

21 The ASC made recommendations to which the government has now responded Adaptation priority Surface water flood alleviation Recommendation (abbreviated) Owner Timescale More and better coordinated action. Urgent assessment and consideration of investments. Ofwat 2019 Price Review and 2024 Price Review Development and surface water flood risk Property-level flood resilience Coastal change risk management Improve standards. Remove automatic right to connect. Clear ownership for adoption and maintenance. Monitor impact of Bonfield Review. Communicate with vulnerable households. Ensure Flood RE creates incentives for PLR. Review ambition and progress implementing SMPs. Prepare communities for the coastal adaptation needed by DCLG 2020 Defra 2020 EA

22 Recommendations for further progress in surface water flooding RECOMMENDATION 12: More and better co-ordinated action is needed to manage the lack of capacity within drainage systems to cope with possible increase in the frequency and severity of heavy rainfall. Defra and the National Infrastructure Commission should initiate a comprehensive assessment to quantify the need for investment and other policy actions to manage surface water flood risk, including, but not limited to, retrofitting SuDS. Urgent investments need to be considered by water companies and Ofwat as part of PR19, and the comprehensive assessment should be in place to inform local planning policy and major investment decisions in the PR24.. RECOMMENDATION 13: Policy is needed urgently to address the outstanding barriers to deliver high quality, effective SuDS in new development that achieve the full range of potential environmental cobenefits. In particular, there is a need for: More comprehensive and ambitious national standards for SuDS. The automatic right to connect new development to the existing sewerage network to be made conditional on the national SuDS standards being met. A clear policy on who should maintain and adopt SuDS by default. Source: ASC (2017) Progress in preparing for climate change 22

23 RECOMMENDATION 14: Defra should develop a long-term strategy to manage flood risk down to tolerable levels in each part of the country (as we first recommended in 2015), so that as Flood Re is withdrawn properties can remain insurable at reasonable cost. This should include: Property-level flood resilience recommendation Monitoring the impact of the actions adopted following the Bonfield Review to achieve, in five years time, an environment where it is standard practice for properties at high risk to be made resilient. Actively communicating the risk and possible adaptation actions to households and communities that are expected to remain or become at high flood risk by the 2030s. Ensuring that Flood Re incentivises households to take up property-level resilience measures, which insurers should allow to be implemented during post-flood repairs. Source: ASC (2017) Progress in preparing for climate change 23

24 Coastal adaptation recommendation RECOMMENDATION 15: The Environment Agency, with Coastal Groups, should review the ambition within, and progress being made in implementing, Shoreline Management Plans (SMPs), and prepare communities for the coastal adaptation that will need to take place between now and the middle of the century. Source: ASC (2017) Progress in preparing for climate change 24

25 Communication of risk recommendation RECOMMENDATION 4: The Government should explore cost-effective ways to communicate the risks from climate change and the actions that can be taken to reduce vulnerabilities. Priorities include: engaging vulnerable groups and communities exposed to specific risks such as higher temperatures, coastal change, and increases in flood risk; challenging the relevant professional bodies (such as the Landscape Institute, the Royal Town Planning Institute, and the Institution of Civil Engineers), and trade associations (for example the National Federation of Builders), to increase their level of engagement with members regarding climate change, and to improve the training, guidance and professional accreditation they offer; and raising awareness amongst the general public including through community groups and national membership organisations such as the National Trust, the Royal Horticultural Society, and the RSPB. Source: ASC (2017) Progress in preparing for climate change 25

26 What is the ASC doing?

27 Coastal Risks and Opportunities from CCRA2 Climate risks combined with social vulnerability Viability of low-lying coastal communities Infrastructure at risk of flooding and coastal erosion Loss of habitats and natural flood protection from sea level rise Opportunities for tourism and outdoor activity 27

28 Upcoming ASC work on coastal adaptation Long term perspective of potential coastal adaptation outcomes: Summary statistics of coastal change Cost-benefit analysis of the SMPs Case studies of sensitive locations Storylines or pathways of effective adaptation 28

29 Vision of the Coastal Adaptation report 29

30 Possible recommendations from the report A longer term, holistic perspective Improved data collection, standardisation and archiving Open conversations, including a clear communication of risks, with people and businesses at risk, and with those not at risk Focus the conversation on positive development and preparation rather than response to events Closer alignment between planning objectives and environmental issues Address barriers to effective adaptation 30

31 ASC work on evaluating adaptation in England to date all available via our website Annual progress reports 2010 & 2011: initial assessments, developing methodology 2012: Flooding & water scarcity 2013: Land use 2014: Economy & well-being Additional reports Scotland (2011, 2016), Wales (2013) Local government (2012) Statutory report to Parliament 2015 and 2017: Progress in preparing for climate change evaluation of the first NAP CCRA Evidence report for CCRA2 in

32 Thank you Committee on Climate Change