METEOROLOGISK INSTITUTT Norwegian Meteorological Institute. Austria. Heiko Klein, Michael Gauss, Ágnes Nyíri and Birthe Marie Steensen.

Transcription

1 MSC-W Data Note 1/2011 Date: July 2011 METEOROLOGISK INSTITUTT Norwegian Meteorological Institute Transboundary air pollution by main pollutants (S, N,O 3 )and PM Austria EMEP/MSC-W: Heiko Klein, Michael Gauss, Ágnes Nyíri and Birthe Marie Steensen Data Note 2011 ISSN

2 2

3 Contents 1 Introduction 5 2 Definitions, statistics used 8 3 Emissions 10 4 Trends Trendswithconstantmeteorology Trendswithvariablemeteorologyfrom2005 to Transboundary fluxes in Depositionof oxidisedsulphur Depositionof oxidisednitrogen Depositionof reducednitrogen Transboundary ozone concentrations AOT40 uc f POD 1.0,gen-DF Ozone fluxestodeciduous forests SOMO35 Riskof ozonedamages tohumanhealth Transboundary concentrations of particulate matter 20 8 Comparison with observations 22 9 Risk ofdamagefrom ozone and PMin Austriain Ecosystem-specificAOT40values Ecosystem-specificozonefluxes Health impactsfromozoneand PM

4 4

5 1 Introduction This note is one of a series of country-specific reports, complementary to the EMEP Status Report 1/2011. It presents overview information on transboundary pollution of main pollutants, ground level ozone and PM relevant for Austria. All model runs have been performed with the EMEP/MSC-W model version v , using ECMWF-IFS meteorology. The transboundary contributions presented here are based on source-receptor calculations with the EMEP/MSC-W model using meteorological andemissiondataforthe year Emissions The emissions for 2009 have been derived from the 2011 official data submissions to UNECE CLRTAP. The gridded distributions of the 2009 emissions have been provided by the EMEP Centre on Emission Inventories and Projections (CEIP). More detailed information on 2009 emission data is provided in the EEA/CEIP Report Inventory Review The emissions for the period of have been derived from the latest data submissions to UNECE CLRTAP as of May Consequently, for these years both the gridded emission data and the national and sector totals might differ from those which were used in previous EMEP reports. The spatial allocation of the emission data is, in general, based on the original base grid distribution of the particular year. If this was not available, the distribution from the most recent base grid was applied for the re-gridding of historical emission data. All model calculations were carried out for the extended EMEP domain. However, expert estimates for the extended domain are available only from year For those areas where no historical data are given in the EMEP emission inventory, the 2007 gridded emissions were used for years The re-gridded emission data used in the model calculations this year are available on WebDab: Trends with constant meteorology Trends in depositions and air concentrations are presented for the period of The calculations are based on a consistent series of model runs, all using the EMEP/MSC-W model version v For all years ECMWF- IFS meteorology for 2009 is used. Thus, the presented inter-annual changes of depositions and air concentrations are induced by the emission changes only and not by meteorological variability. Trends with variable meteorology Trends in depositions and air concentrations are presented for the period of The calculations are based on a consistent series of model runs, all using the EMEP/MSC-W model version v For the years , the meteorology of the respective year is used. Starting in 2005, the presented inter-annual changes of depositions and air concentrations are thus a result of the emission changes and meteorological variability. For the years ECMWF-IFS meteorology for 2009 is used because the retrieval of ECMWF-IFS meteorology for for the EMEP/MSC-W model has yet to be accomplished. Transboundary pollution Data are presented in the form of maps, pies and bar-charts. The data are generated by source-receptor calculations, where emissions for each emitter of one or more precursors are reduced by 15%. For oxidised sulphur, oxidised nitrogen and reduced nitrogen, the results have been scaled up to represent the entire emission from an emitter. For other components, which are subject to significant non-linearities, we present theeffectofa15%reduction only. 5

6 The pie charts for depositions and PM give a picture of the relative contributions of the countries or regions to depositions and concentrations over Austria. For O 3 and related indicators bar charts are used because in some cases the effect of a reduction of emissions from a country can either increase or decrease O 3 levels elsewhere. The values in the bar charts for ozone indicators show the six most important contributors to AOT40, ozone fluxes and SOMO35 in Austria. Since the contributions can be both positive or negative, the relative importance of the contributors has been determined by comparing the absolute value of the contributions. To give more intuitive pictures on the effect of pollution from a given country, we use positive scales for pollution reductions throughout this note. Negative values thus mean an increase of pollution levels. Comparison with observations The map of monitoring stations shows all stations of Austria in the EMEP measurement network with measurements in 2009 submitted to EMEP. The frequency analysis plots compare daily observation results with the model results. The measurement data are available from CCC: emepdata.html. The table provides annual statistics of the comparison of model results with observations for each measured component. Comparison is done only for stations with a sufficiently consistent set of data available in weekly or higher time resolution. Risks from ozone and PM The maps with ozone and PM values correspond to regional background levels and they are not representative of local point measurements, where these values can be much higher (i.e. in cities). NOTE: In this series of country reports, trends are also presented for Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan and Tajikistan, although, as mentioned above, historical emission data before 2007 are not available. Emissions used for the years are thus the same as for 2007 for these countries. The presented inter-annual changes of depositions and air concentrations are induced by the emission changes in the old EMEP domain( grid cells) only. For the Russian Federation and Kazakhstan, trends refer to the area of these countries inside the extended EMEP domain ( grid cells), now covering all of Kazakhstan s territory and a larger part of the Russian Federation. 6

7 Country Codes Many tables and graphs in this report make use of codes to denote countries and regions in the EMEP area. Table 1 provides an overview of these codes and lists the countries and regions included in the source-receptor calculations for Code Country/Region Code Country/Region AL Albania IE Ireland AM Armenia IS Iceland ASI Remaining Asian areas (official) IT Italy AST Remaining Asian areas (extended) KG Kyrgyzstan AT Austria KZ Kazakhstan (official) ATL Remaining N.-E. Atlantic Ocean KZT Kazakhstan (extended) AZ Azerbaijan LT Lithuania BA Bosnia and Herzegovina LU Luxembourg BAS Baltic Sea LV Latvia BLS Black Sea MD Republic of Moldova BE Belgium ME Montenegro BG Bulgaria MED Mediterranean Sea BIC Boundary and Initial Conditions MK The FYR of Macedonia BY Belarus MT Malta CH Switzerland NL Netherlands CY Cyprus NO Norway CZ Czech Republic NOA North Africa DE Germany NOS North Sea DK Denmark PL Poland EE Estonia PT Portugal EMC EMEP land areas (official) RO Romania EXC EMEP land areas (extended) RS Serbia ES Spain RU Russian Federation (official) EU European Union RUE Russian Federation (extended) FI Finland SE Sweden FR France SI Slovenia GB United Kingdom SK Slovakia GE Georgia TJ Tajikistan GL Greenland TM Turkmenistan GR Greece TR Turkey HR Croatia UA Ukraine HU Hungary UZ Uzbekistan Table 1: Country/region codes used in the source-receptor calculations. official refers to the area of the country/region which is inside the official EMEP grid, while extended refers to the area of the country/region inside the extended EMEP grid. The European Union includes Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, The Netherlands, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, United Kingdom, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Poland, Slovakia, Slovenia, Bulgaria and Romania. 7

8 2 Definitions, statistics used The following definitions and acronyms are used throughout this note: SIA denotessecondaryinorganicaerosolandisdefinedasthesumofsulphate(so 2 4 ),nitrate (NO 3 ) and ammonium (NH+ 4 ). In the EMEP/MSC-W model SIA is calculated as thesum: SIA= SO 2 4 +NO 3 (fine)+no 3 (coarse)+nh+ 4 PPM denotes primary particulate matter, originating directly from anthropogenic emissions. It is usually distinguished between fine primary particulate matter, PPM 2.5 with aerosol diameters below 2.5 µm and coarse primary particulate matter, PPM co with aerosol diameters between 2.5µm and 10µm. PM 2.5 denotes fine particulate matter, defined as the integrated mass of aerosol with diameterupto2.5µm. IntheEMEP/MSC-WmodelPM 2.5 iscalculatedasthesum: PM 2.5 = SO 2 4 +NO 3 (fine)+nh+ 4 + SS(fine)+PPM 2.5 PM 10 denotes particulate matter, defined as the integrated mass of aerosol with diameter up to 10 µm. In the EMEP/MSC-W model PM 10 is calculated as the sum: PM 10 = PM NO 3 (coarse)+ss(coarse)+ppm co SOMO35 isthesumofozonemeansover35ppbisthenewindicatorforhealthimpactassessment recommended by WHO. It is defined as the yearly sum of the daily maximum of 8-hour running average over 35 ppb. For each day the maximum of the running 8-hours average for O 3 is selected and the values over 35 ppb are summed over the whole year. If we let A d 8 denote the maximum 8-hourly average ozone on day d, during a year withn y days(n y = 365or 366),thenSOMO35canbe definedas: SOMO35 = d=n y d=1 max ( A d 8 35 ppb,0.0) where the max function ensures that only A d 8 values exceeding 35 ppb are included. The corresponding unit is ppb days (abbreviated also as ppb d). AOT40 is the accumulated amount of ozone over the threshold value of 40 ppb, i.e.: AOT40 = max(o 3 40ppb,0.0)dt where the max function ensures that only ozone values exceeding 40 ppb are included. The integral is taken over time, namely the relevant growing season for the vegetation concerned, and for daytime only. The corresponding unit are ppb hours (abbreviated to ppb h). Although the EMEP model generates a number of AOT-related outputs, in accordance with the recommendations of the UNECE Mapping Manual we will concentrate in this report on two definitions: AOT40 uc f - AOT40 calculated for forests using estimates of O 3 at forest-top (uc: upper-canopy). This AOT40 is that defined for forests by the UNECE Mapping Manual, but using a default growing season of April-September. 8

9 AOT40 uc c - AOT40 calculated for agricultural crops using estimates of O 3 at the top of the crop. This AOT40 is close to that defined for agricultural crops by the UNECE Mapping Manual, but using a default growing season of May-July, and adefaultcrop-heightof 1m. POD Y -(WasAFstY)-Phyto-toxicozonedose,istheaccumulatedstomatalozonefluxover athresholdynmolm 2 s 1,i.e.: POD Y = max(f st Y,0) dt (1) wherestomatalfluxf st,andthreshold,y,areinnmol m 2 s 1,andthemaxfunction evaluates max(a B,0) to A B for A > B, or zero if A B. This integral is evaluatedover time,fromthestartof thegrowingseason(sgs),totheend (EGS). For the generic crop and forestspecies,the suffix gen can be applied, in this report e.g. POD 1.0,gen-DF (or AFst1.6 gen-df ) is used for forests and POD 3.0,gen-CR (or AFst3 gen-cr )is usedforcrops. POD was introduced in 2009 as an easier and more descriptive term for the accumulated ozone flux. The definitions of AFst and POD are identical however. 9

10 3 Emissions Figure 1: Spatial distribution of emissions from Austria in

11 4 Trends 4.1 Trends with constant meteorology SO x NO x NH NMVOC CO PM PM Table 2: Emissions from Austria. Unit: Gg S dep oxn dep redn dep Table 3: Estimated deposition of Sulphur (S) and Nitrogen (N) in Austria. Unit: Gg(S) or Gg(N) mean ozone max ozone AOT40 uc f SOMO POD 1.0,gen-DF PM 2.5 anthrop PM 10 anthrop Table 4: Estimated yearly mean values of air quality indicators averaged over Austria. Unit: daily mean ozone (ppb), daily max ozone (ppb), AOT40 uc f (ppb h), SOMO35 (ppb d), POD 1.0,gen-DF (mmol/m2),pm 2.5 (µg/m 3 ) andpm 10 (µg/m 3 ). Figure 2: Trends in emissions of photo-oxidant pollution precursors. Unit: Gg (note that NO x is heregivenas NO 2 ). 11

12 Figure 3: Trends in emissions and depositions of oxidised sulphur, oxidised nitrogen and reduced nitrogen. Unit: Gg(S) or Gg(N). Figure 4: Changes in ozone related pollution relative to Unit: %. Figure5: Trendsinmeanconcentrations of particulates since2000. Unit: µg/m 3. 12

13 4.2 Trends with variable meteorology from 2005 to 2009 Figure 6: Trends in emissions and depositions of oxidised sulphur, oxidised nitrogen and reduced nitrogen. Unit: Gg(S) or Gg(N). Figure 7: Changes in ozone related pollution relative to Unit: %. Figure8: Trendsinmeanconcentrations of particulates since2000. Unit: µg/m 3. 13

14 5 Transboundary fluxes in Deposition of oxidised sulphur Figure 9: Contribution of emissions from Austria to deposition of oxidised sulphur in the EMEPdomain. Unit: mg(s)/m 2. Thepiechartshowsthesixmainreceptorareasofoxidised sulphur deposition from Austria. Unit: %. Figure 10: Top left: Deposition of oxidised sulphur in Austria. Unit: mg(s)/m 2. Top right: The six main contributors to oxidised sulphur deposition in Austria. Unit: (%). Bottom left: Oxidised sulphur deposition from transboundary sources. Unit: mg(s)/m 2. Bottom right: Fraction of transboundary contribution to total deposition. Unit: %. 14

15 5.2 Deposition of oxidised nitrogen Figure 11: Contribution of emissions from Austria to deposition of oxidised nitrogen in the EMEP domain. Unit: mg(n)/m 2. The pie chart shows the six main receptor areas of oxidised nitrogen deposition from Austria. Unit: %. Figure12: Topleft: DepositionofoxidisednitrogeninAustria. Unit: mg(n)/m 2. Topright: The six main contributors to oxidised nitrogen deposition in Austria. Unit: %. Bottom left: Oxidised nitrogen deposition from transboundary sources. Unit: mg(n)/m 2. Bottom right: Fraction of transboundary contribution to total deposition. Unit: %. 15

16 5.3 Deposition of reduced nitrogen Figure 13: Contribution of emissions from Austria to deposition of reduced nitrogen in the EMEP domain. Unit: mg(n)/m 2. The pie chart shows the six main receptor areas of reduced nitrogen deposition from Austria. Unit: %. Figure14: Topleft: DepositionofreducednitrogeninAustria. Unit: mg(n)/m 2. Topright: The six main contributors to deposition of reduced nitrogen in Austria. Unit: %. Bottom left: Depositionofreducednitrogenfromtransboundarysources. Unit: mg(n)/m 2. Bottom right: Fraction of transboundary contribution to total deposition. Unit: %. 16

17 6 Transboundary ozone concentrations 6.1 AOT40uc f Figure 15: Reduction in AOT40uc f due to reduction in NOx (left) and NMVOC (right) emissions from Austria. Unit: ppb h. Figure 16: Six most important contributors to AOT40uc f in Austria in terms of NOx (left) and NMVOC (right) emission changes. Unit: %. Figure 17: Reduction in AOT40uc f due to reduction in NOx (left) and NMVOC emissions (right) from transboundary sources. Unit: ppb h. 17

18 6.2 POD1.0,gen-DF Ozone fluxes to deciduous forests Figure 18: Reduction in POD1.0,gen-DF due to reduction in NOx (left) and NMVOC (right) emissions from Austria. Unit: mmol/m2. Figure 19: Six most important contributors to POD1.0,gen-DF in Austria in terms of NOx (left) and NMVOC (right) emissions. Figure 20: Reduction in POD1.0,gen-DF due to reduction in NOx (left) and NMVOC emissions (right) from transboundary sources. Unit: mmol/m2. 18

19 6.3 SOMO35 Risk of ozone damages to human health Figure 21: Reduction in SOMO35 due to reduction in NOx (left) and NMVOC (right) emissions from Austria. Unit: ppb day. Figure 22: Six most important contributors to SOMO35 in Austria in terms of NOx (left) and NMVOC (right) emissions (15% reduction) Figure 23: Reduction in SOMO35 due to reduction in NOx (left) and NMVOC emissions (right) from transboundary sources. Unit: ppb day. 19

20 7 Transboundary concentrations of particulate matter Figure 24: Reduction in SIA concentrations due to emission reduction from Austria. Unit: µg/m 3. Figure 25: Main contributors to SIA concentrations in Austria. Unit: %. Figure 26: Fraction of transboundary contribution to SIA concentrations in Austria. Unit: %. 20

21 Figure 27: Reduction in PM2.5 and PMcoarse concentrations due to emission reduction from Austria. Unit: µg/m3. Note the different color scales. Figure 28: Main contributors to PM2.5 (left) and PMcoarse (right) concentrations in Austria. Unit: %. Figure 29: Fraction of transboundary contribution to PM2.5 and PMcoarse concentrations in Austria. Unit: %. 21

22 8 Comparison with observations Figure 30: Location of stations in Austria Figure 31: Frequency analysis of ozone in Austria at the stations that reported O 3 for 2009 (Model, Observations) 22

23 Figure 32: Frequency analysis of depositions in precipitation in Austria (Model, Observations) 23

24 Figure 33: Frequency analysis of air concentrations in Austria(Model, Observations) Component No. Bias Correlation RMSE SO2 in Air 3-19%±23% 0.77± ±0.17 Sulfate in Air 1-44% NO2 in Air 3 25%±64% 0.58± ±0.83 Total Nitrate in Air 0 NH3+NH4+ in Air 0 Ozone daily max 17 0%±6% 0.90± ±1.06 Ozone daily mean 17 2%±13% 0.86± ±1.61 SO4 wet dep. 3-8%±20% 0.43± ±0.89 Nitrate wet dep. 3-32%±22% 0.46± ±3.59 Ammonium wet dep. 3-33%±44% 0.35± ±8.75 Precipitation 3 22%±38% 0.73± ±7.53 Table 5: Annual statistics of comparison of model results with observations in Austria for stations with a sufficiently consistent set of data available in weekly or higher timeresolution. Standard deviations provide variability ranges between stations. 24

25 9 Risk ofdamage fromozoneand PMin Austria in Ecosystem-specific AOT40 values Figure34: AOT40 uc f and AOT40uc c in Austria in AOT40 uc f (growingseason: April-Sept.): Criticallevelfor forestdamage is5000ppb h. AOT40 uc c (growing season: May-July): Critical level for agricultural crops is 3000 ppb h. 9.2 Ecosystem-specific ozone fluxes Figure35: POD 3.0,gen-CR and POD 1.0,gen-DF inaustriain Health impacts from ozone and PM Figure36: Regional scalesomo35andpm 2.5 inaustriain