Coastal Cities - Coastal Impacts: The Tides They Are A-Changin

Transcription

1 Coastal Cities - Coastal Impacts: The Tides They Are A-Changin Susan K. Avery President and Director Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution MBL, July 2009

2 The 1821 Click Norfolk to edit and Master Long title Island style Hurricane Reconstructed from historical accounts Maine No damage Light damage New York Moderate damage Considerable damage Long Island Cape Cod

3 The Eastern Click Seaboard to edit Master has changed title style since 1821 Coastal population in MD, DE, NJ, NY and CT now exceeds 31 million making evacuation difficult Insured coastal property is more than $1 trillion Rockaway Beach, NY Ocean City, MD Atlantic City, NJ

4 Earth s population pclick to edit has doubled Master title in the style last 40 years Rockaway Beach, NY Atlantic City, MD

5 Population trends, : Coastal crowding

6 Coastal Cities: Living with the ocean 1. More people and infrastructure in coastal cities have become far more vulnerable to impacts from their environment. Coastal Cities: 2. The environment has become Living with the ocean far more vulnerable to impacts from more people and infrastructure. t

7 Click More to people edit Master on the title coast style put more stress on the ocean North Carolina hog farms Loss of protective coastal barrier beaches and marshes. Urban and agricultural runoff add tons of pollutants to the Urban and agricultural runoff add tons of pollutants to the sea, changing the oceans chemistry and marine ecosystems.

8 Contaminating the oceans affects marine life

9 Click More to people edit Master on the title coast style put more stress on the ocean Chatham, 1985 North Carolina hog farms Air Pollution Loss of protective coastal barrier beaches and marshes. Urban and agricultural runoff add tons of pollutants to the sea, changing g the oceans chemistry and marine ecosystems. Air pollution is also having large impacts on the ocean.

10 Contaminating the oceans affects marine life on global scales The oceans chemistry is changing 1870 Projected for No Data Extremely Poor Marginal Adequate Optimal

11 Coastal Cities: Living with the ocean and climate change 1. More people and infrastructure in coastal cities have become far more vulnerable to impacts from the environment. 2. The environment has become far more vulnerable to impacts from more people and infrastructure. 3. Earth s rapidly changing climate will have dramatic environmental impacts.

12 Climate change is primarily human induced Click to edit Master title style (Intergovernmental t Panel on Climate Change) ) Atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations far exceed levels of last 650,000 years as a result of human emissions Warming of the climate system is Unequivocal Climate change forcing primarily human (fossil fuels and land use) Agreed by delegates of 113 nations

13 The oceans Click to large edit role Master in the title carbon style cycle

14 The oceans, Click air, to and edit land Master interact title style in a complex system

15 Where water meets the land: Impacts of storm surge

16 Storm surge Click in to New edit York Master City title on style Sept. 3, 1821 Storm surge heights reconstructed from observations Ma aximum Water Lev vel above MSL (m m) Water rose 13 feet (4m) in one hour Predicted Tide Courtesy Jeff Donnelly, WHOI (based on observations by Redfield, 1831) Time (hours) When storm struck NYC

17 A double Click to whammy edit Master for coastal title style cities: growing populations and rising i sea levelsl IPCC(2007)

18 Observations Click to support edit Master accelerated title stylesea level rise Global Sea Level from Tide Gauges + Altimeters (>1992) 3.2 mm/year mm/year MSL (mm) mm/year ~ 8 inches (200 mm) -50 Average Rate ~ 1.8 mm/year Year [Church and White, 2006]

19 A local example of inundation (sea level rise plus storm surge) Woods Hole

20 Sea level changes are not uniform: Trends of sea level change ( ) New York City Alexandria Dubai Mumbai Shanghai Tokyo New Orleans Miami Jakarta Rio de Janeiro Sydney Cape Town

21 Melting Click ice sheets to edit contribute Master title to sea style level rise

22 A complicated Click to cated edit system Master title of systems style s Susan: Insert your graphic of environmental system of systems that Susan: Insert your graphic of environmental system of systems that you showed us.

23 Putting it all together 1. More people and infrastructure in coastal cities have become far more vulnerable to impacts from the environment. 2. The environment has become far more vulnerable to impacts from more people and infrastructure. 3. Earth s rapidly changing climate will have dramatic environmental impacts 4. We must understand a system of systems.

24 An international effort to observe the oceans

25 The new Click U.S. to ocean edit Master observatories title es style initiatives

26 An example Click to of edit integrated Master title observations: style Harmful algal l blooms (red tides)

27 More Moe harmful Click to algal aga edit Master boo blooms title in more style oe paces places

28 A case in point: impacts on infrastructure and city water supplies Iran Saudi Arabia Persian Gulf 0 Dubai Gulf of Oman Source: R. Stumpf, NOAA

29 Better data Click makes to edit better Master models title for style forecasting Modeling a dynamic, complex ocean-atmosphere-landlife ecosystem

30 Click to edit Master title style Modeling a system of systems: Atmosphere-ocean-land

31 A case Click in point: to edit improved Master title forecasting style Alerting fishing fleets and the Coast Guard of fast-forming, local icing conditions

32 Making information available

33 Click to edit Master title style Science into Action

34 Credits Thanks to WHOI scientists: Jeff Donnelly Chris Reddy Porter Hoagland Jim Price Dennis McGillicuddy Scott Doney Don Anderson Robert Weller Bill Curry Jim Yoder Bob Beardsley Sarah Daas Andy Maffei Peter Fox, RPI And the WHOI Communications Office