The Danish Way to 100 Percent renewable Energy

Transcription

1 Institut für Energie- und Klimaforschung Forschungszentrum Jülich 20 September 2011 The Danish Way to 100 Percent renewable Energy Wind Power Photo Voltaic Solar thermal 2,1 TWh Biomass 90,4 TWh Danish Alternative (Biomass transport) Fuel Total 90,4 TWh H2 Electrolyser H 2 41,4 TWh 18,0 TWh 60,9 TWh CHP, HP and Power plants 16,7 TWh 53,5 TWh Household & Industry Bio-fuel production 31,0 TWh 27,9 TWh District Heating Grid loss 25 % 37,0 TWh 14,0 TWh Bio-fuel production 42,8 TWh Electricity Demand 37,0 TWh Heat Demand 56,8 TWh Transport 50,7 TWh Henrik Lund Professor in Energy Planning Aalborg University

2 Aalborg University, Denmark Jutland/Denmark: 20% wind power (120,000 owners) High share of the world s offshore power 30% Distributed Generation 50% of electricity supplied by CHP

3 100% renewable energy solutions! What we already have done in Denmark What we aim to do in the future (100% Renewable Energy) How this can be done ( illustrated by the IDA Energy Plan 2030) Recent developments in smart grid marked based integration of wind power

4 The first oil crisis in 1973 The Danish energy consumption in 1972 Primary Energy Supply 1972 Oil Coal Natural Gas Renewable Energy

5 30 Years of active Energy Planning 30 years of active Government and Parliament Energy Policies. Including NGO alternative strategies and public debate

6 1000 PJ 40 years with a stable energy consumption World Primary Energy Consumption PJ Danish Primary Energy Supply RES Nuclear Ngas Oil Coal Oil Coal Natural Gas Renewable Energy

7 At present Denmark is more than self-sufficient PJ Danish Primary Energy Supply PJ Danish Energy Production Oil Coal Natural Gas Renewable Energy Oil Natural gas Renewable Energy

8 Danish oil production and prognosis The Danish Energy Authority, 2002

9 1.000 MDK K MDKK MDK K Export of 40 Value of Danis h E nerg y P roduc ts energy technology and fuels Total Oil Natural G as C oal E lectricity -30 Value of Danis h E nerg y P roduc ts Danis h export of E nerg y T ec hnolog y % The Danish Energy Authority, 2006 Natural gas C rude oil % 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% E xport S hare of Total E xports

10 1.000 MDKK 1000 PJ Mio.ton 3 Challenges Danish CO2 emissons 70 Climate Change Actual Corrected World Primary Energy Consumption '90 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 Year 400 Security of supply (Fossil fuels) RES Nuclear Ngas Oil Coal Industry, economy and jobs Danis h export of E nerg y T ec hnolog y 20% 18% 16% 14% E xport 30 12% % 8% S hare of Total 15 6% E xports 10 4% 5 2% %

11 The long-term Objective of Danish Energy Policy Expressed by former Prime Minister Anders Fogh Rasmussen in his opening speech to the Parliament in 2006 and in several political agreements since then: To convert to 100% Renewable Energy Prime minister 16 November 2008: We will free Denmark totally from fossil fuels like oil, coal and gas Prime minister 16 November 2008: position Denmark in the heart of green growth

12 Index 1972=100 Heated Space and Heat Demand Domestic heating 80 PJ Fuel for House Heating Space Heat demand PJ RES District Heating Coal Ngas Oil Distributed CHP Large CHP Boilers

13 Danish electricity production Big power stations Small CHP plants Wind turbines

14 Energy System Analysis Model Import/ Hydro Hydro Electricity Export Hydro water fixed and storage power plant storage variable system RES electricity Fuel RES heat PP CHP Boiler H2 storage Electrolyser Heat pump and electric boiler Cars Industry Cooling device Heat storage Electricity demand Cooling demand Heat demand Transport demand Process heat demand

15 MWh/h MWh/h MWh/h Wind production Eltra 1996 (2042 MWh pr MW) 500 Wind energy Input: Data from total productions of wind turbines in the TSO Eltra area (West Denmark) Hours Wind production Eltra 2000 (2083 MWh pr MW) Hours Wind production Eltra 2001 (1964 MWh pr MW) Hours

16 At present 99% of Danish Wind Power is used in Denmark to meet Domestic demands By Henrik Lund, Frede Hvelplund, Poul A. Østergaard, Bernd Möller, Brian Vad Mathiesen Department of Development and Planning, Aalborg University, Aalborg Anders N. Andersen EMD International, NOVI Research Park, Aalborg, Denmark Poul Erik Morthorst, Kenneth Karlsson, Peter Meibom and Marie Münster Risø DTU, National Laboratory for Sustainable Energy, Roskilde, Denmark Jesper Munksgaard Pöyry, Copenhagen, Denmark Peter Karnøe Department of Organization, Copenhagen Business School, Copenhagen,Denmark Henrik Wenzel, Institute of Chemical Engineering, University of Southern Denmark, Odense, Denmark Hans Henrik Lindboe Ea Energy Analyses, Copenhagen, Denmark

17 A palette of solutions Flexible consumption Electricity storage CAES systems Regulation of CHP plants Electric heating Heat pumps Electric cars Stopping of wind turbines Production of hydrogen Transmission abroad V2G

18 Conclusions: Regulation of CHP and heat storage (implemented in DK in 2004): Makes possible to integrate 20% Wind Power (and 50% CHP) Adding large heat pumps and heat storage capacity to existing CHP plants: Makes possible to integrate 40% Wind Power (and 50% CHP) Electricity for transportation (integrate approx. 60% wind power) Important to involve the new flexible technologies in the grid stabilisation task

19 Plans how to make the transformation to 100% Renewable Energy Systems

20 Three targets in the IDA Energy Year 2006 To maintain security of energy supply To cut CO 2 emissions by 50 % by year 2030 compared to the 1990 level To create employment and to quadruple the export in the energy industry

21 During the IDA Energy Year meetings and seminars by the IDA groups and societies More than 1600 participants Coordination by the IDA Committee for the environment Overall energy system analysis at Alborg University

22 Energi System Analyse Model Import/ Hydro Hydro Electricity Export Hydro water fixed and storage power plant storage variable system RES electricity Fuel RES heat PP CHP Boiler H2 storage Electrolyser Heat pump and electric boiler Cars Industry Cooling device Heat storage Electricity demand Cooling demand Heat demand Transport demand Process heat demand

23 IDA Energiplan 2030

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25 100% Renewable Energy in Primær energiforsyning 100% VE i år 2050, PJ , Eksport VE-el Solvarme Biomasse Naturgas Olie Kul Ref 2030 IDA 2030 IDA 2050 Bio IDA 2050 Vind IDA 2050 Biomass potentials and consumtion in IDA 2030, PJ DEA potential IDA 2030 Max potential Waste Energy crops Slurry fibre fraction Slurry biogas Wood Straw

26 Conclusions 100 Percent Renewable is physically possible and the first toward 2030 is feasible to the Danish Society. The methodology of design is a very complex process. The combination of a creative phase involving many single experts and detailed system analyses seems efficient and can be recommended.

27 Case: Skagen CHP plant

28 Skagen CHP plant CHP capacity: 13 MWe and 16 MWth (Three 4.3 MWe Wärtsilä Natural Gas engines 250 MWh heat storage 37 MW peak load boilers 10 MW electric boiler Heat Pumps Investment under consideration Operated together with a Waste Incineration plant (heat only).

29 The main electricity markets Primary reserves (frequency controlled production) Secondary reserves (controlled by status of primary reserves) Manuel regulating power (Tertiary reserves) Intra day market Day ahead spot market 30 sec 15 min 1 hour > 12 hours The M.Sc. Programmes in Environm. Managem. & Sustainable Energy Planning and Management, 8. Semester,

30 Skagen Day ahead spot market in Jan Regulating power market in approx Automatic primary reserve market in Nov. 2009

31 Cost of entering primary automatic reserves market Cost of making MW available on the engines: Only approx EUR. Investing in 10 MW electric boiler: Approx 0.7 MEUR.

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33 Conclusions Denmark can operate a system with 20% Wind and 50% CHP By adding heat pumps to the CHP units the integration of wind power can be raised to approx. 40% with-out loosing efficiency (nor wind power) Including the CHP plants in the various electricity markets is essential. Once the markets are open for CHP plants the cost of entering them seams small.

34 More information Hydro water Hydro storage Hydro power plant Electricity storage system Import/ Export fixed and variable Electricity demand RES electricity PP Cooling device Cooling demand Fuel RES heat CHP Boiler H2 storage Electrolyser Heat pump and electric boiler Cars Industry Heat storage Heat demand Transport demand Process heat demand