Energy Supply Modelling in Cities

Transcription

1 Energy Supply Modelling in Cities Illustrated Using Data from the Danish municipality of Sønderborg SDEWES Dubrovnik, Daði Þ. Sveinbjörnsson, Loui Algren, Anders Bavnhøj Hansen, Allan Schrøder Pedersen

2 CITIES Work Package 2 Aim and scope: To characterize and model the energy production, transmission, storage and conversion resources required to meet the future energy demand in cities. To identify opportunities for increasing the energy system efficiency, sustainability, flexibility and integration. 2 Dadi Sveinbjörnsson - SDEWES Dubrovnik,

3 CITIES Work Package 2 Aim and scope: To characterize and model the energy production, transmission, storage and conversion resources required to meet the future energy demand in cities. To identify opportunities for increasing the energy system efficiency, sustainability, flexibility and integration. WP2 updates: Dominik, the WP2 PhD student, started Sept. 15 th. Presentation at the SDEWES conference in Dubrovnik, Croatia in September. MSc project on fuel production using electrolysis and biomass finished in June. MSc project on gas network flow modelling expected to start in November. Increased collaboration with WP1 (joint WP1+2 meetings & more individual collaboration). 2 Dadi Sveinbjörnsson - SDEWES Dubrovnik,

4 Sønderborg as a case study for modelling energy supply in cities We have set up an optimization model of Sønderborg s energy system for the years 214 and 229. We are modelling different scenarios to see how new energy technologies could increase the efficiency and integration of Sønderborg s energy system while minimizing its CO2 emissions. The findings will be used for developing more general energy system models for larger cities. 3 Dadi Sveinbjörnsson - SDEWES Dubrovnik,

5 The techno-economic energy systems modeling tool Sifre Sifre is a linear optimization modelling tool developed by the Danish TSO. A local front end with a remote back-end optimization solver and SQL server. Optimizes the total operating costs of the specified energy system. 4 Dadi Sveinbjörnsson - SDEWES Dubrovnik,

6 Model layout: Sønderborg s energy system in 229 Energy sources Conversion & transmission Energy services Wood Solar Geothermal + biomass Biomass District Biomass Heating Waste Electricity grid, remote Manure Waste CHP Photovoltaics Wind turbines Gas Anaerobic digestion Large heat pumps Electricity grid, local Hydrogen Heat pumps Electric Electro -lyzers Classical electricity Electric vehicles Straw Gas grid, remote Gas CHP 5 Dadi Sveinbjörnsson - SDEWES Dubrovnik, Biogas Gas grid, local Biogas upgrade Gas for industry Gas for transport

7 Model layout: Sønderborg s energy system in 229 Energy sources Conversion & transmission Energy services Wood Solar Geothermal + biomass Biomass District Biomass Heating Waste Electricity grid, remote Manure Waste CHP Photovoltaics Wind turbines Gas Anaerobic digestion Large heat pumps Electricity grid, local Hydrogen Heat pumps Electric Electro -lyzers Classical electricity Electric vehicles Straw Gas grid, remote Gas CHP 5 Dadi Sveinbjörnsson - SDEWES Dubrovnik, Biogas Gas grid, local Biogas upgrade Gas for industry Gas for transport

8 Model layout: Sønderborg s energy system in 229 Energy sources Conversion & transmission Energy services Wood Solar Geothermal + biomass Biomass District Biomass Heating Waste Electricity grid, remote Manure Waste CHP Photovoltaics Wind turbines Gas Anaerobic digestion Large heat pumps Electricity grid, local Hydrogen Heat pumps Electric Electro -lyzers Classical electricity Electric vehicles Straw Gas grid, remote Gas CHP 5 Dadi Sveinbjörnsson - SDEWES Dubrovnik, Biogas Gas grid, local Biogas upgrade Gas for industry Gas for transport

9 Model layout: Sønderborg s energy system in 229 Energy sources Conversion & transmission Energy services Wood Solar Geothermal + biomass Biomass District Biomass Heating Waste Electricity grid, remote Manure Waste CHP Photovoltaics Wind turbines Gas Anaerobic digestion Large heat pumps Electricity grid, local Hydrogen Heat pumps Electric Electro -lyzers Classical electricity Electric vehicles Straw Gas grid, remote Gas CHP 5 Dadi Sveinbjörnsson - SDEWES Dubrovnik, Biogas Gas grid, local Biogas upgrade Gas for industry Gas for transport

10 Model layout: Sønderborg s energy system in 229 Energy sources Conversion & transmission Energy services Wood Solar Geothermal + biomass Biomass District Biomass Heating Waste Electricity grid, remote Manure Waste CHP Photovoltaics Wind turbines Gas Anaerobic digestion Large heat pumps Electricity grid, local Hydrogen Heat pumps Electric Electro -lyzers Classical electricity Electric vehicles Straw Gas grid, remote Gas CHP 5 Dadi Sveinbjörnsson - SDEWES Dubrovnik, Biogas Gas grid, local Biogas upgrade Gas for industry Gas for transport

11 Model layout: Sønderborg s energy system in 229 Energy sources Conversion & transmission Energy services Wood Solar Geothermal + biomass Biomass District Biomass Heating Waste Electricity grid, remote Manure Waste CHP Photovoltaics Wind turbines Gas Anaerobic digestion Large heat pumps Electricity grid, local Hydrogen Heat pumps Electric Electro -lyzers Classical electricity Electric vehicles Straw Gas grid, remote Gas CHP 5 Dadi Sveinbjörnsson - SDEWES Dubrovnik, Biogas Gas grid, local Biogas upgrade Gas for industry Gas for transport

12 Model layout: Sønderborg s energy system in 229 Energy sources Conversion & transmission Energy services Wood Solar Geothermal + biomass Biomass District Biomass Heating Waste Electricity grid, remote Manure Waste CHP Photovoltaics Wind turbines Gas Anaerobic digestion Large heat pumps Electricity grid, local Hydrogen Heat pumps Electric Electro -lyzers Classical electricity Electric vehicles Straw Gas grid, remote Gas CHP 5 Dadi Sveinbjörnsson - SDEWES Dubrovnik, Biogas Gas grid, local Biogas upgrade Gas for industry Gas for transport

13 Two scenarios for Sønderborg s energy conversion capacity in 229 Scenarios with and without CHP plants, and a 214 reference scenario MW District production capacity Solar Large heat pumps Biomass Geothermal + bio boiler Waste CHP A 229B Scenario Gas CHP Gas 6 Dadi Sveinbjörnsson - SDEWES Dubrovnik, Partly based on Sønderborgs Energisystem i 229, PlanEnergi, 214.

14 Two scenarios for Sønderborg s energy conversion capacity in 229 Scenarios with and without CHP plants, and a 214 reference scenario MW District production capacity Solar Large heat pumps Biomass Waste CHP Gas CHP A 229B Gas Scenario Geothermal + bio boiler MW Individual production capacity Biomass Heat pumps Electric heaters Oil heaters Gas heaters A 229B Scenario 6 Dadi Sveinbjörnsson - SDEWES Dubrovnik, Partly based on Sønderborgs Energisystem i 229, PlanEnergi, 214.

15 Two scenarios for Sønderborg s energy conversion capacity in 229 Scenarios with and without CHP plants, and a 214 reference scenario MW MW District production capacity Solar Large heat pumps Biomass Geothermal + bio boiler Waste CHP Gas CHP A 229B Gas Scenario Local electricity generation capacity Photovoltaics Wind turbines Waste CHP Gas CHP A 229B Scenario MW Individual production capacity Biomass Heat pumps Electric heaters Oil heaters Gas heaters A 229B Scenario 6 Dadi Sveinbjörnsson - SDEWES Dubrovnik, Partly based on Sønderborgs Energisystem i 229, PlanEnergi, 214.

16 Two scenarios for Sønderborg s energy conversion capacity in 229 Scenarios with and without CHP plants, and a 214 reference scenario MW MW District production capacity Solar Large heat pumps Biomass Geothermal + bio boiler Waste CHP Gas CHP A 229B Gas Scenario Local electricity generation capacity Photovoltaics Wind turbines Waste CHP Gas CHP A 229B Scenario MW MW Individual production capacity Biomass Heat pumps Electric heaters Oil heaters Gas heaters A 229B Scenario Local methane production capacity A 229B Scenario Biogas production & upgrade 6 Dadi Sveinbjörnsson - SDEWES Dubrovnik, Partly based on Sønderborgs Energisystem i 229, PlanEnergi, 214.

17 Results for the two 229 scenarios Emissions and costs Ton/year CO 2 emissions A 229B Scenario Domestic oil heaters Domestic gas heaters Gas CHP Gas Methane (industry) Methane (transport) Gasoline (transport) Diesel (transport) 7 Dadi Sveinbjörnsson - SDEWES Dubrovnik,

18 Results for the two 229 scenarios Emissions and costs CO 2 emissions Total system operating costs relative to 214 Ton/year A 229B Scenario Domestic oil heaters Domestic gas heaters Gas CHP Gas Methane (industry) Methane (transport) Gasoline (transport) Diesel (transport) Operating costs (%) A 229B Scenario Lower CO2 emissions but higher operating costs without CHP plants. Operating costs are lower in 229 than in 214, even with no CHP plants. Capital costs of new power plants are included in the Sifre model, must be added after the simulation. 7 Dadi Sveinbjörnsson - SDEWES Dubrovnik,

19 Results: Annual electricity generation and consumption The 229 scenario with CHP plants: More power generation due to vast increase of wind and photovoltaic capacities. Sønderborg becomes a net exporter of electricity. Energy flow (GWh/year) 7 Annual electricity generation and import Wind turbines Year Waste CHP Gas turbine CHP Photovoltaics Import from DK1 Will Sønderborg be able to export electricity at an acceptable price during high wind production? 8 Dadi Sveinbjörnsson - SDEWES Dubrovnik,

20 Results: Annual electricity generation and consumption The 229 scenario with CHP plants: More power generation due to vast increase of wind and photovoltaic capacities. Sønderborg becomes a net exporter of electricity. Energy flow (GWh/year) 7 Annual electricity generation and import Wind turbines Year Waste CHP Gas turbine CHP Photovoltaics Import from DK1 Will Sønderborg be able to export electricity at an acceptable price during high wind production? 8 Dadi Sveinbjörnsson - SDEWES Dubrovnik,

21 Results: Annual electricity generation and consumption The 229 scenario with CHP plants: More power generation due to vast increase of wind and photovoltaic capacities. Sønderborg becomes a net exporter of electricity. Will Sønderborg be able to export electricity at an acceptable price during high wind production? Energy flow (GWh/year) Energy flow (GWh/year) 7 Annual electricity generation and import Wind turbines Annual electricity consumption and export 7 Classical electricity Year Year Waste CHP Gas turbine CHP Photovoltaics Import from DK1 Ind. electric Utility heat pumps Ind. heat pumps EV charge Export to DK1 8 Dadi Sveinbjörnsson - SDEWES Dubrovnik,

22 Results: Annual electricity generation and consumption The 229 scenario with CHP plants: More power generation due to vast increase of wind and photovoltaic capacities. Sønderborg becomes a net exporter of electricity. Will Sønderborg be able to export electricity at an acceptable price during high wind production? Energy flow (GWh/year) Energy flow (GWh/year) 7 Annual electricity generation and import Wind turbines Annual electricity consumption and export 7 Classical electricity Year Year Waste CHP Gas turbine CHP Photovoltaics Import from DK1 Ind. electric Utility heat pumps Ind. heat pumps EV charge Export to DK1 8 Dadi Sveinbjörnsson - SDEWES Dubrovnik,

23 Results: Electricity time series for 2 weeks in January 9 Dadi Sveinbjörnsson - SDEWES Dubrovnik,

24 Results: Electricity time series for 2 weeks in January 9 Dadi Sveinbjörnsson - SDEWES Dubrovnik,

25 Results: Electricity time series for 2 weeks in January 9 Dadi Sveinbjörnsson - SDEWES Dubrovnik,

26 Results: Electricity time series for 2 weeks in January Much larger wind and photovoltaic capacities in 229 lead to very large fluctuations, some way of balancing the system will be required. 9 Dadi Sveinbjörnsson - SDEWES Dubrovnik,

27 Summary We are working with data from Sønderborg in Denmark as a case study for modelling energy supply in cities. The objective of the work is to analyze and identify opportunities for increased energy system sustainability, efficiency and integration. The scenarios include thermal gasification and fuel production, biogas production with hydrogen addition and electrolysers capable of reversible operation. 1 Dadi Sveinbjörnsson - SDEWES Dubrovnik,

28 Thanks for your attention! Questions?