Northern Eurasia Earth Science Partnership:

Transcription

1 Northern Eurasia Earth Science Partnership: Initiative description and first steps Pavel Groisman NEESPI Project Scientist UCAR Project Scientist at National Climatic Data Center, Asheville, NC, USA LCLUC Science Team Meeting College Park, Maryland, April 11-13, 2006

2 The NEESPI Study Area NEESPI Study Area includes: Former Soviet Union, Northern China, Mongolia, Fennoscandia, & Eastern Europe

3 Rationale for NEESPI 1. Strong interactions in the system terrestrial ecosystem - atmosphere hydrosphere - cryosphere - human society and feedbacks to global energy, water, and carbon cycles in the region 2. Strong climatic and environmental changes.

4 Radiation balance of forested (RB f ) versus nearby forest-free (RB 0 ) sites RB f = a RB 0 + b (Rauner 1972) Conifer forest: a = 1.10; b = 20 W m -2 Deciduous forest: a = 1.05; b = 15 W m -2 => Surface Radiation Budget is strongly affected by natural land cover changes:

5 Two possible scenarios of land cover change after the permafrost thaw: Wetlands Steppe

6 Example of hydrology-vegetation feedback. Net Ecosystem Exchange [positive CO 2 flux stands for source to the atmosphere]. The sign of annual NEE depends upon weather conditions From the Archive of the Euro- Siberian Carbonflux Project. Accumulated CO 2 flux (NEE,mol m -2 ) Wet spruce forest, CFR, Tver region CO 2 -source CO 2 -sink C Date Dry years

7 Rationale for NEESPI Strong climatic and environmental changes.

8 Current changes Mean winter temperature change over the globe Data source: (Jones and Moberg 2003). Processed by the U.S. NOAA NCDC Global Climate at the Glance Mapping System

9 in the past... Changes of the northern boundaries of forest and steppe zones along the 39 E (past 13K years) (Kozharinov and Puzachenko 2004)

10 2.8 AR4 AOGCMs, A2 emission scenario) А 1 3 and projected. Surface air temperature anomalies over Russia: observed (station data), reanalyzed (ERA40) and simulated/projected (17-member ensemble of IPCC Б Meleshko et al., 2006

11 IPCC WG1 AR4 considers couplings between changes in climate system and biogeochemistry in a set of AOGCMs and there is a question: What if we ll need to re-do all assessments when the interactive biosphere will be included?

12 Ecosystems changes projected for the future using HAD3 GCM. Projected land cover changes in Siberia are so dramatic that might require a re-run of the GCM with an interactive surface 76 N 72 N 76 N 64 N 100 E 110 E 90 E 100 E 110 E Present In year 2090 Major ecosystems distribution in central and eastern Siberia (Tchebakova et al. 2003) 60 N 56 N 120 E

13 Natural changes are accompanied by the changes caused by human activity: Example 1: More than 90% of steppe and forest-steppe zones in Northern Eurasia is currently cropland (orange areas in the map) [Rozenzweig et al. 2003] Example 2: Land use dynamics in the past 60 years in the Volga River Basin show that 13 Mln Ha of agricultural land (or ~20%) have been replaced by forest (10 Mln) and reservoirs (3 Mln) [Golubev, Speranskaya & Tsitsenko 2003]

14 Example 3. Observed and natural changes in the level of the largest in the world lake are significant and of similar magnitudes -24 m below World Ocean level Real Natural Natural would be changes observed Caspian Sea Level changes m Source: Shiklomanov (1976) Update: Shiklomanov and Georgievsky (2003)

15 up to the extreme cases that lead to ecological disasters E.g., most of the Aral Sea will disappear in the next ten years

16 and put society wellbeing and human health in harm way Increasing frequency of dust storms and increasing rate of soil erosion. Air pollution. Fine aerosol particles are responsible for causing the greatest harm to human health.

17 Specific human dimension We had managed societies in Northern Eurasia and now social shocks superimposed with environmental changes reduce the resilience of the societies of the region Political system changed Land use rules changed Economics changed Infrastructure of social services unsupported Plus Hot spot of climatic change Biogeochemical feedbacks changing in uncertain ways

18 Global concerns Science questions, foci, science plan, deliverables

19 Areas of global concern Changes in soil conditions - permafrost thaw - desertification Changes in carbon budget Land cover changes Changes in surface energy budget Changes in land hydrology Changes in regional and => global climate Societal vulnerability to changes

20 The overarching NEESPI science question: How do Northern Eurasia s terrestrial ecosystems dynamics interact with and alter the biosphere, atmosphere, cryosphere, and hydrosphere of the Earth? This question can be reformulated in a pragmatic way as: How do we develop our predictive capability of terrestrial ecosystems dynamics over Northern Eurasia for the 21 st century to support global projections as well as informed decision making and numerous practical applications in the region? Link to Coordinated Observation and Prediction of the Earth System (COPES)

21 Example of topical science questions: Ecosystems and climate interactions. Science question: How do we account for the synergy of feedbacks of major processes within the regional terrestrial ecosystems, climate, cryosphere, and hydrosphere of Northern Eurasia and their interactions with society? ESSP: IGBP [ileaps, GLP, AIMES]; GWSP; GCP ; WCRP [GEWEX, CLiC]; IHDP; DIVERSITAS

22 NEESPI Science plan major focuses Focus on transient zones that are most vulnerable in the future changes Coastal zone Tundra-forest Forest-steppe Steppe-desert Mountains and on Boundaries Cold Lands Dry lands Focus on feedbacks that make the projection of the future changes uncertain Biogeochemical feedbacks Biogeophysical feedbacks Human activity

23 NEESPI Science Plan Structure 1. INTRODUCTION 2. SCIENTIFIC QUESTIONS AND MOTIVATION 3. MAJOR SCIENTIFIC TOPICS 3.1. Terrestrial ecosystem dynamics 3.2. Biogeochemical cycles 3.3. Surface energy and water cycles 3.4. Land use interactions: societal-ecosystem linkages 3.5. Ecosystems and climate interactions 3.6. Topics of special interest Cold land region processes Coastal zone processes Atmospheric aerosols and pollution 4. REMOTE SENSING 5. MODELING 6. DATA AND INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY 7. EDUCATION 8. RESEARCH STRATEGY Scientific Background Appendix neespi.org TOOLS

24 NEESPI Deliverables: to have in ~10 years A suite of process oriented models for each major terrestrial process in all its interactions A suite of global and regional models that seamlessly incorporate all regionally specific feedbacks associated with terrestrial processes An integrated observational knowledge data base for environmental studies A system in place that can serve the emergency needs of the society

25 GEOSS Vision in the NEESPI Interpretation Enable a healthy public, economy, and planet through an integrated, comprehensive, and sustained Earth observation system From a Regional View to a Global Analysis and Projections

26 NEESPI first steps

27 Current NEESPI statistics NEESPI Science Plan Preparation Team includes more than 90 scientists (representing mostly academia) from 11 countries with the majority of them are from the United States and Russia. More than fifty individual research projects (always with the international participation) are currently funded and approximately twenty projects are pending under the NEESPI umbrella. 353 scientists of 186 institutions from 29 countries are participating in the first 52 funded projects

28 NEESPI Senior Scientists by country (353 scientists from 186 institutions; 52 projects) Russia 105 scientists 42 institutions including Moscow 58 scientists 19 institutions most active Institution: RAS Sukachev Institute of Forest Research (8 sci. in 8 projects) 26 scientists 15 institutions China most active Institution: Institute of Botany, Chinese Acad. Sci. (5 scientists) United States 113 scientists 50 institutions most active institution: University of Maryland (10 scientists in 10 projects) European Union (W) 50 scientists 33 institutions 10 countries including Finland 10 scientists 5 institutions including Germany 15 scientists 9 institutions Japan 13 scientists Intern. Arctic Res. Ctr. + 6 institutions Canada 6 scientists 5 institutions NIS countries, Mongolia, Korea, Syria, and Eastern Europe 38 scientists 34 institutions 14 countries Large fraction of hidden participation from the NEESPI domain, including institutional support from Russian and Chinese Academies of Sciences and CMA.

29 NEESPI Scientific Network (On April 6, 2006: 353 scientists from 186 institutions; 52 projects) 19 institutions in Moscow participate in 26 projects Red dots indicate locations of Principal Investigators Blue dots locations of Co-Investigators, and Green dots - locations of Collaborators. Squares show Focus Research and Science Support Centers. 6 institutions in Beijing participate in 5 projects

30 Current distribution of projects by major research themes. One project could be included in several groups Biogeochemical Cycles 27 Hydrology 21 Cryosphere 24 Land Use 21 Atmospheric Aerosols/Pollution 15 Integrative, Large scale, Modeling 23 Land cover 11 Total 52

31 L a r g e s c a l e Land Cover cluster Boreal zone forest type and structure from EOS data sets Development of an Integrated System of Ground-, Air- and Space- Based Observations of Biomass Burning in Northern Eurasia Northern Eurasia Landcover Dynamics Analysis (NELDA): Monitoring and validating the distribution and change in land cover across Northern Eurasia Siberian Earth System Science Cluster SIB-ESS-C Role of land cover and land use change in hydrology of Eurasian Pan-Arctic Contributions of Changes in Land Use/Land Cover, Water Use, and Climate to the Hydrological Cycle Across the Central Asian States Post-socialist land use and land cover change in the Carpathians Comparative Studies on Carbon Dynamics in Disturbed Forest Ecosystems: Eastern Russia and Northeastern China Application of space-based technologies and models to address land-cover/land-use change problems on the Yamal Peninsula, Russia Land cover land use change effects on surface water quality... Land Use and Land Cover Dynamics of China.

32 Two modes of NEESPI expansion Dedicated Calls (recent NASA and RAS and perspective in the NIS, EU, and China) Freely joined projects Benefits of NEESPI membership Improved links to collaborators in Northern Eurasia and to US and EU scientists working on similar problems Exchange of ideas, datasets, and knowledge with other team members working on similar problems Synergistic approach in working on complex problems Priority access to remote sensing and in situ data collected over Northern Eurasia Education: student exchange, doctoral and post-doc positions sharing among the Team Institutions

33 Currently, we envision following NEESPI Focus Research Centers Existing: Center for Cold Land Processes and Arctic Coastal Studies Center for Water System Studies Center on Aerosol Studies Center for Land Use Studies Center for Biogeochemical Cycle Studies Projected:Center for Land Cover Studies, Center for Integration of the NEESPI Results and Modeling Studies, and five Regional FRCs (Sopron, Moscow, Beijing, Krasnoyarsk, and Vladivostok)

34 NEESPI Science and Data Support Centers Within the United States For hydrometeorological information: National Climatic Data Center, Asheville, NC For remote sensing information: Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD Within the Russian Federation For hydrometeorological information: Research Institute For Hydrometeorological Information, Obninsk, Kaluga Area For remote sensing information: SCANEX Corp., Moscow Within China with focus on East Asia Beijing Climate Center

35 NEESPI Focus Research Center on Atmospheric Aerosol and Air Pollution

36 Example of the NEESPI Focus Research Center NEESPI Focus Research Center for Cold Land Processes and Arctic Coastal Studies Venue: International Arctic Research Center, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Alaska Objectives: conduct, promote, and facilitate research aimed at improved understanding and modeling of the cold land processes in the Earth System focusing on Northern Eurasia and its coastal zone Links to International Projects: CliC Leaders: Romanovsky, Hinzman, Walsh, Walker, Sergienko, Semiletov, Fukuda, Atkinson, Kofinas Current Science foci: Permafrost Cold land hydrology and global biogeochemical cycles Cryosphere interactions with climate, biota, and environment Humans in the Arctic Funded and pending proposals to NSF, NOAA, NASA, JAMSTEC, JAXA, Far Eastern Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences, DOE, and to IPY. Other relevant activities: The Focus Research Center is going to serve as one of the base institutions for CliC studies in Northern Eurasia and Alaska

37 Resent meeting of the FRC for Cold Land Processes and Arctic Coastal Studies leaders (Fairbanks, Alaska, April 6-8, 2006) Presentations of ten funded projects by NASA(3), NSF(2), NOAA(3), USGS(1), and Polar Foundation(1) Planning for field campaign in 2006 Development of internal structure and collaboration beyond the NEESPI region Discussion (unfinished) of integration in other NEESPI projects (input/output) Consent to have the second FRC meeting jointly with the FRC for Water System studies (Dec 2006)

38 p l a n n e d Plans for the FRC Workshops November 2006: Beijing, China (Aerosols, Data Group, Regional FRC for Dry Land Studies) December 2006: San-Francisco, California (joint Water System and Cold Land Processes FRCs) Beginning of 2007: Jena, Germany or Vienna, Austria (FRC for Biogeochemical Cycle Studies) Extensive exchange in the next two months with conclusion in Urumqi, China in the mid 2007 (joint Land Use and Water System Studies FRCs) Summer 2007, Vladivostok, Russia (Regional FRC for the NEESPI Far East Studies) and Aspen, Colorado (Integration Studies Workshop) TBD, Other Regional FRCs workshops p r o j e c t e d

39 Most resent task: Integration

40 Newly Funded Integrative Projects Modeling the carbon dynamics of the Eurasian Boreal Forest Current climate changes over Eastern Siberia and their impact on permafrost landscapes, ecosystem dynamics, and hydrological regime Diagnosis and Prognosis of Changes in Lake and Wetland Extent on the Regional Carbon Balance of Northern Eurasia Quantifying CO 2 fluxes from boreal forests in Northern Eurasia: An integrated analysis of flux tower data, remote sensing data and biogeochemical modeling Permafrost dynamics within the Northern Eurasia region and related impacts on surface and sub-surface hydrology Role of land cover and land use change in hydrology of Eurasian Pan-Arctic An integrated understanding of the terrestrial water and energy cycles across the NEESPI domain through observations and modeling Understanding the role of changes in land use/land cover and atmospheric dust loading and their coupling on climate change in the NEESPI study domain drylands Northern Eurasian C-land use climate interaction in the semi-arid regions Contributions of changes in land use/land cover, water use, and climate to the hydrological cycle across the Central Asian States. Plus EU, Japanese and Russian Projects

41 Example of the NEESPI funded project Understanding the role of changes in land use/land cover and atmospheric dust loading and their coupling on climate change in the NEESPI study domain drylands PI: Irina Sokolik Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, Georgia, USA Co-PIs: Robert Dickinson Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, Georgia, USA Yongjiu Dai Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China George Golitsyn Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia Collaborators: R. Bektursunova Eurasian National University, Akmolla, Kazakhstan B. Maricorena and G. Bergametti, Laboratoire Interuniversitaire des Systèmes Atmosphériques, Paris, France D. Jugler Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology, Ulaan Baatar, Mongolia Y. Shao City University of Hong Kong, China I. Uno Institute Applied Mechanics, Kyushu University, Japan M. Mikami MRI/JMA, Japan Y. Chun Meteorological Research Institute, Seoul, Korea.

42 NEESPI goes beyond its domain: International Polar Year and NORTH EU Project on boreal zone studies (to be re-vitalized) For example: NEESPI Science Plan was the basis for the IPY Proposal by an international team from Russia, the United States, and Japan Cold Land Processes in Northern Eurasia that was later converted into a multinational Core IPY Proposal:

43 Terrestrial Cryosphere Sub-Topic: Cold Land Processes in the Northern Hemisphere IPY proposal # 138 Project coordinators: Pavel Ya. Groisman Vladimir M. Kotlyakov UCAR/NCDC, USA RAS IG, Russian Federation

44 FOR MORE INFORMATION SEE THE NEESPI WEB SITE: Side Note: NEESPI is pronounced approximately like the Russian phrase for Don t sleep Northern Eurasia Earth Science Partnership Initiative