Science, Politics, Industry & Urban Development in Managing Climate Change Risks

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1 Science, Politics, Industry & Urban Development in Managing Climate Change Risks SIR DAVID KING Partner at SYSTEMIQ Limited, formerly Chief Scientific Adviser to UK Govt and UK Climate Wills Building, Bristol University

2 Humanity and the natural world From the OED definition of nature : the material world, specifically plants, animals and other features of the earth itself, as opposed to humans or human creations, or civilisation. Jonathan Bate, The Song of the Earth, 2000: We are both a part of and apart from nature. Once you invent the category of the human, you have to make nature its Other.

3 Foresight projects Mental Capital and Wellbeing Sustainable Energy Management and the Built Environment Detection and Identification of Infectious Diseases Intelligent Infrastructure Systems Tackling Obesities: Future Choices Brain Science, Addiction and Drugs Cognitive Systems Flood and Coastal Defence Exploiting the Cyber Trust and Electromagnetic Crime Prevention Spectrum

4 Total Population of the World in Billions Middle Class* *Middle class here defined as daily per capita spending of between $10 and $100 in PPP terms Source: IIASA

5 2008 >50% 2050 >70%

6 Cities are on the frontline Nexus of challenge is the city - cities in developing world face steepest challenge 95% of the increasing urban population will be in developing countries mainly in smaller cities

7 Energy & Urban Density D. Lam & P. Head (Arup) in O.R. Inderwildi & D.A. Kind (Eds.), Energy, Transport & the Environment, Springer 2012

8 21 st Century Challenges Minerals Food production Climate change Demographics Population the the driver Conflict and terrorism Ecosystems Water resource Health and development Energy security and supply

9 NASA GISS Temp. 01/ /2016. Base

10 Global Action IPCC, 1988 United Nations Framework Convention on climate change, 1992 Kyoto, 1997 UK Government s 60% target, 2003; then 80% in 2007 EU: Emissions trading, 2004 G8+5, Gleneagles, 2005 PARIS COP21 AGREEMENT, 2015

11 EUROPEAN TEMPERATURES Source: Hadley Centre

12 UK actions, commitments 1997 renewables obligation on grid Energy Research Partnership and Energy Technologies Institute formed. 2003, 2007 Energy White Papers; feed-in tariffs; Dept of Energy & Climate Change formed Gleneagles G8, topics: Climate Change and Development, commitment to raise ODA to 0.7% GDP. 2008, Clim Ch Act of Parliament, incl commitment 80% redn by 2050 & creation of Climate Change Com. 5 th Carbon Budget to 2032, 57% reduction International Climate Fund, 3.89bn REFINANCED AT A FURTHER 5.8bn in October $1.2bn committed to global Green Climate Fund First country to commit to complete coal phase-out by, Outcomes: 30% reduction achieved to date; 2028 Carbon Budget means 52% by 2028, 57% by Pressure on EU.

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15 Risk of fatal heat stress

16 Risk of Crop Failure (Rice)

17 Probability of exceeding 2 C

18 Probability of exceeding 4 C

19 Number of events per 100 years Change in Return Period of present 100-year flood event New York Shanghai Kolkata Data extracted from Hallegatte et al. (2013) Relative Sea-Level Rise (m)

20 The Paris Agreement Long Term Goal Emissions Review Mechanism The Paris agreement aims to hold the increase in global average temperatures well below 2 C and to pursue efforts to limit the increase to 1.5 C. To achieve the temperature goal greenhouse gas emissions should peak as soon as possible and rapidly reduce thereafter to achieve a balance between emissions and sinks in the second half of this century. Every five years Parties will update their Nationally Determined Contributions informed by a stock-take of global progress. Successive Contributions shall represent a progression beyond the existing Contribution.

21 COP21 International INDCs to 2030, compared with global carbon budgets OFFICIAL

22 Cumulative total anthropogenic CO 2 emissions from 1870 (GtCO 2 )

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25 David King, John Browne, Richard Layard, Gus O Donnell, Martin Rees, Nicholas Stern, Adair Turner

26 Mission Innovation High-profile initiative to strengthen public funding of clean energy RD&D. 22 nations, committed to doubling by 2020/2021: annual spend of approx $30bn. Breakthrough Energy Coalition, 29 investors pledged to invest $20bn in solutions.

27 The 7 initial areas for Collaborative Research 1. Smart grids, electricity & heat storage 2. Electricity access to off-grid communities 3. Capturing sunlight to create liquid fuels 4. CCUS 5. 2 nd generation biofuels 6. Materials to replace steel, concrete 7. Heating & cooling

28 Functionality:

29 VariaLift Airship

30 2 nd Generation Biofuels Granbio plant, Brazil 22 mn gallons p.a.

31 Nuclear Fission: UK Submarines: Precursor to Modular Reactors, about 50 MW per reactor Source: World Nuclear Association

32 OFFICIAL

33 Sea ice decline

34 Arctic Sea Ice Gone 2016?

35 Consequences of Arctic Warming Melting Meandering All Accelerating Methane

36 Long-term commitment to sea level rise

37 RIGOUR, RESPECT AND RESPONSIBILITY A universal ethical code for scientists: RIGOUR Act with skill and care in all scientific work. Maintain up to date skills and assist their development in others. Take steps to prevent corrupt practices and professional misconduct. Declare conflicts of interest. RESPECT Be alert to the ways in which research derives from and affects the work of other people, and respect the rights and reputations of others Ensure that your work is lawful and justified. Minimise and justify any adverse effect your work may have on people, animals and the natural environment. RESPONSIBILITY Seek to discuss the issues that science raises for society. Listen to the aspirations and concerns of others. Do not knowingly mislead, or allow others to be misled, about scientific matters. Present and review scientific evidence, theory or interpretation honestly and accurately.

38 Back to Jonathan Bate, The Song of the Earth. What are poets for in our brave new millennium? Could it be to remind the next few generations that it is we who have the power to determine whether the earth will sing or be silent?. If mortals dwell in that they save the earth and if poetry is the original admission of dwelling, then poetry is the place where we save the earth.

39 . Only we, more than plants or animals, go along with this risk; willing it. Sometimes we are the ones that wager (not out of interest) more than life itself wager a breath. Rilke, Eighth Duine Elegy

40 Probability of exceeding 7 C