Climate Change: The Greatest Moral Challenge of our Time

Transcription

1 Climate Change: The Greatest Moral Challenge of our Time President John Dunn, Western Michigan University David Karowe, WMU Department of Biology Ron Kramer, WMU Department of Sociology Paul Clements, WMU Department of Political Science This presentation is also posted on the following websites: If you have further questions about any of these slides, please feel free to contact David Karowe: images #3-37 and Ron Kramer: images Paul Clements: images

2 Climate change is already happening Temperature difference relative to Can climate change be due to natural variation? 2

3 For the last 30 years, solar irradiance has been decreasing Solar Irradiance Since 1900, natural factors would have caused Earth to cool slightly Bottom line: At least 95% of global warming is due to human activities Fossil fuel use 3

4 Is there any debate among scientists about whether humans are the primary cause of global warming? Most of the global warming in recent decades can be attributed to human activities." Scientific organizations endorsing this statement: United States: National Academy of Sciences American Association for the Advancement of Science American Medical Association American Meteorological Society American Institute of Biological Sciences American Chemical Society American Geophysical Union American Institute of Physics Geological Society of America American Academy of Paediatrics American College of Preventive Medicine American Public Health Association National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration National Aeronautics and Space Administration Environmental Protection Agency National Center for Atmospheric Research University Corporation for Atmospheric Research Ecological Society of America American Society of Agronomy American Society of Plant Biologists Association of Ecosystem Research Centers Botanical Society of America Crop Science Society of America Natural Science Collections Alliance 4

5 American Statistical Association Organization of Biological Field Stations American Physical Society Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics Society of Systematic Biologists Soil Science Society of America Federation of American Scientists National Research Council National Association of Geoscience Teachers American Quaternary Association American Association of Wildlife Veterinarians American Society for Microbiology Society of American Foresters American Astronomical Society Europe: European Academy of Sciences and Arts European Science Foundation European Geosciences Union European Physical Society European Federation of Geologists Royal Society of the United Kingdom Academie des Sciences (France) Deutsche Akademie der Naturforscher (Germany) Accademia dei Lincei (Italy) Royal Irish Academy Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences Royal Academy of Belgium for Sciences and the Arts Royal Meteorological Society British Antarctic Survey United Kingdom Institute of Biology 5

6 Other countries ( 35): Chinese Academy of Sciences Science Council of Japan Russian Academy of Sciences Indian National Science Academy Royal Society of New Zealand Australian Academy of Sciences Australian Medical Association Polish Academy of Sciences Academia Brasiliera de Ciencias (Brazil) Royal Society of Canada African Academy of Sciences Caribbean Academy of Sciences Academy of Sciences of Malaysia Indonesian Academy of Sciences Academy of Science of South Africa Scientific organizations holding a dissenting opinion: American Institute of Petroleum Geologists (but not since 2007) 6

7 Are Americans aware of the strength of the scientific consensus? Are Americans aware of the strength of the scientific evidence? 7

8 This lack of awareness persists even though major climate predictions are coming true in the U.S. e.g. in 2011, ten states had their wettest spring on record As a result, there was extensive flooding 8

9 Much of the U.S. had an unusually warm summer In late September, 43% of U.S. was in drought September 27, 2011 South central states experienced Exceptional Drought 9

10 Right now, 61% of U.S. is in drought September April 10, , 2011 This year, 23 states had their warmest March on record 10

11 What does the future hold? Climate change is very likely to accelerate Earth is expected to warm by at least 2-4 o C by 2100 Business as usual 4 o 2 o Alternate energy sources 11

12 Will a 4-5 o temperature rise matter? When Earth was 5 o cooler: In the future, most summers are likely to be hotter than any experienced thus far 12

13 In the future, most summers are likely to be hotter than any experienced thus far For many Midwestern cities, dramatic increases predicted in the number of Chicago 1995-like heat waves - responsible for ~ 700 deaths in 1995 Before 1990: 0.01 per year Today: 0.13 per year : 2.74 per year 13

14 Much of the world is likely to experience much more frequent and stronger droughts by the 2060s Exceptional Extreme Severe Moderate Mild drought Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) exceptional extreme severe moderate mild drought Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) 14

15 exceptional extreme severe moderate mild drought Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) Developed countries are causing the problem, but developing countries experience most health costs Countries proportional to CO 2 emissions ( ) Countries proportional to climate-sensitive health effects 15

16 Many more species are predicted to be climate losers than climate winners Tree species richness is predicted to decline substantially throughout the U.S. by 2100 Current

17 In Michigan, 8 of the 15 most abundant tree species are predicted to decline by at least 50% sugar maple balsam fir paper birch big tooth and trembling aspen northern white cedar 36 Michigan bird species predicted to decline by % common loon white-throated sparrow blackburnian warbler yellow-bellied sapsucker evening grosbeak red-breasted nuthatch magnolia warbler junco 17

18 By 2080, climate change is predicted to cause the extinction of 20-40% of large African mammals Possible loss of all coral reefs with 3 o rise and >650 ppm CO 2 coral bleaching - due to ocean warming and acidification 18

19 Globally, if we allow Earth to warm by 3 o C, 20-50% of species may be committed to extinction Climate Change: The Greatest Moral Challenge of our Time Ron Kramer The Moral Issues 19

20 The Moral Challenge A matter of Social Justice: Moral obligation to future generations Ecological debt to global South Concern for the suffering of the poor in all nations Moral obligation to other species We need to develop what Brueggemann calls A Prophetic Imagination: Struggle to imagine the real Confront the truth/develop awareness Penetrate the numbness, Penetrate the despair Deal with the sense of loss and accompanying grief 20

21 The Call to Action Give voice to Hope filled possibility Responsibility/Empowerment Doing what we can/joining together Transformative social movement Howard Zinn-lessons from history Climate Change: The Greatest Moral Challenge of our Time The Politics Paul Clements 21

22 The United States is the worst offender Americans just waking up to the reality, not yet recognizing the obligations Consequences in the future will be much worse than experience so far Effective response not possible without strong international agreement American politicians, including our Congressman Fred Upton, are obstructing action toward an international agreement Atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide parts per million 38,000BC 1900 AD (up & down) (or higher) ??? depends on us 22

23 We Americans need to reduce our carbon dioxide emissions by 85% by 2050 and the Chinese need to cut theirs in half Reductions in carbon dioxide emissions will be inadequate without a strong international agreement Emission reductions Taxes to support other countries adaptation Technology transfers Monitoring implementation New international institutions strong and intrusive Treaty needed to motivate bitter medicine 23

24 Americans will find this difficult but as we are the one world superpower and the worst offender, the world needs us to take the lead. But. Mitt Romney, 2012: My view is that we don't know what's causing climate change on this planet. 24

25 2011 Representative Fred Upton, chair of House Energy and Commerce Committee, sponsored bill (H. 910) barring Environmental Protection Agency from regulating greenhouse gasses, argued this regulation would threaten the American economy League of Conservation Voters gave Fred Upton a score of zero for pro-environment votes Los Angeles Times named Fred Upton Congress s #1 enemy of the earth No treaty condemns Africans, Asians and others to immense hardship, and condemns our grandchildren to a much harsher world. 25

26 What can I do to minimize climate change? To avoid worst scenarios, we need to rapidly and substantially reduce greenhouse gas emissions Target: 80% reduction by 2050 Urgent need for alternate energy sources Solar Wind 26

27 Wind power could supply 16 times current U.S. electricity demand using only onshore windmills - Michigan can supply 12 times our current use Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) is very promising Central tower Parabolic trough 27

28 A CSP solar array 100 x 100 miles could provide all of U.S. electricity needs today - excess energy captured during the day could be stored as heat and used to produce electricity at night A small portion of the Sahara desert could supply all of the world s electricity 28

29 Who has the largest impact on Earth s future? Fred Upton is one of the biggest threats to planet Earth on planet Earth. LA Times, December Contact your representatives! 2. Vote 29

30 3. Educate others 4. Next time, buy a more fuel-efficient car 20 mpg 30 mpg 34 mpg 50 mpg - would reduce CO 2 emissions by 56 million tons per year 30

31 5. Weatherize your house: weather-strip, adequately insulate attic, and replace single-pane windows with triple-pane windows - would reduce CO 2 emissions by 25 million tons per year 6. Next time, buy energy star appliances - would reduce CO 2 emissions by 15 million tons per year 31

32 7. HVAC equipment: when necessary, replace older furnace and AC unit with Energy Star model - would reduce CO 2 emissions by 12 million tons per year 8. Change to compact fluorescent light bulbs - one per household = taking 6 million cars off the road 32

33 9. Turn the thermostat down (winter) or up (summer) - can save 7 tons of CO 2 per year for a family of four 10. Buy green electricity - one GreenBlock = driving 3,300 fewer miles per year ($1.50/month) 33

34 Worst case scenario: 34