PRoACC2. Research Proposal URBANIZING AREAS IN THE MEKONG DELTA: RESILIENCE ADAPTATION TO FUTURE CHANGE

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1 Center of Water Management and Climate Change, VNU HCMC PRoACC2 Research Proposal URBANIZING AREAS IN THE MEKONG DELTA: RESILIENCE ADAPTATION TO FUTURE CHANGE Chau Nguyen Xuan Quang Center of Water Management and Climate Change (WACC) Vietnam Nationnal University Ho Chi Minh City (VNU-HCM) Mentor: Assela Pathirana UNESCO-IHE Ho Long Phi WACC March

2 3. Introduction f. Project Title: Urbanizing areas in the Mekong delta: Resilience adaptation to the future change. Acronym: PRoACC2U g. Location of Research Can Tho City and Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam h. Participating Partner The major partners of ProACC2U are: Partner 1: Acronym: Address: Partner 2: Acronym: Address: Partner 3: Acronym Address Center of Water management and Climate change, VNU - HCMC WACC Information Technology Park, VNU-HCMC. Quarter 6, Linh Trung Ward, Thu Duc District, HCMC, Vietnam Can Tho Climate Change Coordination Office CCCO-CT 80 Phan Dinh Phung, Ninh Kieu District, Can Tho City Steering Center of Flood Control, HCMC, Vietnam SCFC 10 Tran Nhat Duat Street, District 1, HCMC, Vietnam i. Project Idea and Concept Roles Contribute equipments for field measurement and data of perception survey campaign. Contribute experts in TELEMAC/SWMM model, RS/GIS processing. Contribute working place and support measurement campaign Bridging to Can Tho City and Mekong Delta provinces Output Field measurement data and RS/GIS data TELEMAC + SWMM coupling model Measurement data Networking with local governments Contribute data Data for case study in HCMC Urban system in developing countries is more complexity due to rapid and uncontrollable urbanization process. Furthermore, this system also faces with many uncertainties resulting from climate change impacts. The challenges of increased complexities and uncertainties have recognized as major challenges for urban water management at current state and in the future. To 18

3 toward resilience of urban water environment both before and after disaster is needed for sustainable urban development. Flood resilient planning and building consist of technical approach and other aspects including policy, regulation, decision making and engagement (Zevenbergen and Gersonius, 2007). The technical approach often refers to the ability of the physical system, while other aspects need to involve the active roles and perception of the stakeholders. The perception of decision maker is essential to archive successful flood resilient planning. In developing countries, small and medium sized cities often faced with lack of available budget for development and regeneration. However, in most case these limited funds were invested for shortterm immediate problems due to the political will whereas the sustainable development needs the long-term planning and investment. The tradeoff between the short-term and long-term targets will be a challenge task. In this case, to make a policy-shift in the urban development directions, it is necessary to make a sound financial case for any flood protection, water quality management or general sustainable urban development projects. For this it is important to (a) apply rigorous optimization techniques backed by solid financial information (e.g. cost/benefit) in order to come up with justifiable, cost-effective (i.e. optimal) solutions and (b) incorporate many fringe benefits of proposed adaptation activities (e.g. ecosystem services benefits, health benefits from water quality control) into cost/benefit analyses. Based on the understanding of the current state of the focus city, the project will contribute to the future urban planning by helping mainstream flood resilience and urban-water livability into the ongoing urban development process. The first, important step for the success of the project is a realistic, scientifically sound understanding of the current state of the urban water system. Project activities for adaptation can be divided into three areas: (i) Management of flood quantity using solutions that may include Sustainable Drainage System (SuDS) applications; (ii) Management of water quality which is essential for the human security of the cities, particularly dealing with water quality issues related to urban flooding; and (iii) Proposing a comprehensive, feasible and flexible urban planning approach adapting to future change. Case Study City Can Tho located in the southwest bank of the Hau River in the central Mekong Delta. The area of the city is approximate 1400 km 2. The population of Can Tho city is approximately 1.25 million inhabitants. It was raised to the level of a first class city in June 2009, which is an administrative zone equivalent to a province and under the direct control of central government. Can Tho is considered the most important center for commerce, culture, education, and health services in the Mekong Delta (World Bank, 2012). As well as, cities of Vietnam, Can Tho has been under rapid urbanization in the last decades. Therefore, the city is facing with typical urban issues (e.g. flooding and water pollution) during the development processes as well as future changes. Huong and Pathirana (2012) showed significant impacts of flooding in Can Tho city due to future predicted sea-level-rise and climate changes. 4. Description of the Research Project h. Rational and Background In recently years, Mekong delta have been under rapidly urbanization and industrialized. The ratio of industrial and agriculture product have been changed as demonstrated in Fig 1. In 19

4 construction planning of Mekong delta to 2020 and vision to 2050 was approved by Prime Minister, the urbanization areas in Mekong delta is 40% - 50% with million habitants in % 10.0% 9.5% 9.0% 8.5% 8.0% Industrial production (% of the country) % 35% Agricultural production (% of the country) 30% Figure 1: Changes of agriculture and industrial production in Mekong delta (Phi, 2012) Urbanization is not only opportunities but also is challenges for sustainable development in Mekong delta. The migration into cities is unlikely to stop because the livelihoods and other opportunities are better than the rural areas. However, rapid and uncontrollable urbanization process could result in many water- related problems such as severe flooding and water pollution if there are lack of an effective urban water management system. Furthermore, the Mekong Delta is particularly susceptible to floods resulting from rises in sea level due to climate change. Mekong delta would be flooded 39% and 92.1 % area if the sea water level rise 1.0m and 2.0 m respectively (MONRE, 2011). Therefore, a comprehensive climate change adaptation strategy is very essential. i. Problem Statement and Research Questions Problem statement: Improving flood resilience for cites of Mekong delta is very important for sustainable development in this region. The pathway to resilience is different from city to city because the initial conditions, the context and trajectory for future changes are not the same. Therefore, understanding of the nature of urbanization and the complexities, dynamics and interlinked factors driving development is crucial step toward resilience. Then the feasible and flexible adaptation options are proposed and mainstreamed to attain overall flood resilience. In this research, Can Tho City study is proposed to find out what is the best pathway to resilience. The findings from Can Tho can be upscaled/generalized to similar cities in Viet Nam and other regions. In the Can Tho City case study, ProACC2U proposes to focus on three major issues: urban flooding, water quality and health, and land surface subsidence. The first stage, the research will focus on 5 inter-linked aspects including: resilience, risk analysis, surface water pollution, hydrology and meteorology anomalies, and land subsidence. The second stage, feasible, flexible, and comprehensive approaches will be adopted to mainstream into urban development progress and to adapt with future changes. Research questions: With regarding to flood resilience research, the following research questions are proposed: - What are the main causes of flooding in Can Tho City with considering the impact of climate change, land subsidence? 20

5 - What are the baselines with respect to understanding, strategic plan, current infrastructure, legal frame work and community perception? - What are the gaps between baselines and objectives? - How to mainstream flood resilience into ongoing urban development process? - How to propose a comprehensive, feasible and flexible urban planning approach adapting to future change for Can Tho City? - How to upscale and generate the findings in Can Tho City case study for similar cities? j. Overall and Specific Objectives The overall objective of ProACC2U is to influence urban development process in Can Tho City (and similar cities) to improve long-term livability and resilience by promoting feasible and flexible adaption options. In flood resilience aspect, the following specific objectives will be carried out by myself and contribute to Quan s research, which focus on water pollution issues: - To understand the nature of urbanization and the complexities, uncertainties, dynamics and interlinked factors driving development. (leading) - To develop the modeling platform and future development scenarios of urban transformation and climate change that can be used for scenario analysis. (leading in flood model and contribute to Quan s research in water pollution model and scenario development and analysis) - To analysis achievability of future development planning scenarios based on Governance, Perception, Technology and Finance aspects. (contribute to Quan s research) - To identify the pathway to mainstream the flood resilience in the future urban development process. (leading) - To propose a comprehensive and flexible urban planning approach adapting to future change. (contribute to Quan s research) k. Research Methodology and Implementation iii. Research Approach and Activities - Literature review is necessary to update state of the art of urban flooding management approaches as well as the knowledge of modeling, optimization, statistical analysis, risk analysis, cost/benefit analysis, flood resilience etc. - Case study: The research mainly focuses on Can Tho City but the Ho Chi Minh City case study for Nhieu Loc Thi Nghe basin should be concerned to learn the lessons for main case study. The flood issues caused by mistakes of urban development process can be avoided. - Primary/secondary Data Collection: hydrology, meteorology, water quality (historic, temporal scale), maps (topography, land use, sewage networks, soil, hydraulic, current/planning, etc). In addition, specific surveys on governance structure, stakeholder perception, urban hydrology, and to some extent, land subsidence will be conducted with supports of WACC and CCCO-CT. The field measurement for the project is planned in rainy season of 2013 and These activities will contribute to Quan s research. 21

6 - Data Analysis: Some statistical analysis techniques will be used to analyze the anomalies to serve hydrologic model. RS/GIS processing also applied to analyze the data. - Feasibility analysis of some scenario candidates concerning technical and non-technical barriers in order to assess the achievability of selected plans. - Optimization/CBA/ MCA analysis: These tools will be used to for scenarios analysis. - Modeling: Storm water simulation model for Can Tho in ProACC1 by using the 1D SWMM + 2D Brezo coupling model, which developed during the period (Delelegn et al, 2011), can be used for flood assessment but a coupling 1D SWMM and 2D TELEMAC, which developed by EDF (EDF-R&D, 2010) should be implemented for comprehensive model with the advanced features of TELEMAC such as parallel computation, robust numerical algorithm in flood simulation. This is also one of main outputs of this study. In summary, research approach and activities of ProACC2U can be summarized in Appendix C. iv. Anticipated Results and Deliverables 02 Papers published on peer-reviewed journals Reports/ policy briefs l. Dissemination and Outreach - Policy linkages (incl. end users/beneficiaries) - CCCO CT, SCFC iv. Policy influencing, meetings Consulting, reviewer v. Educational/outreach materials Teaching materials m. Integration with Phase 1 and other Studies The outputs of PRoACC 1 Theme Urban Resilience: An approach for adaptation to climate change in urban case study for Can Tho City such as data, models, reports, papers will be inherited and/or upgraded in this research. As above - mentioned, this research will strongly inter-connect with the water pollution research in ProACC2U, which is implemented parallel by Nguyen Hong Quan. Data collection, surveys and findings will be shared each other to support and accelerate individual researches. The findings of the two researches will be exploited to archive the above overall objectives. For example, in the modeling part, the hydraulic simulation results will be used for water quality modeling. To provide a flexibility adaption approach, both water quality and water quantity aspects much be included. Furthermore, the research also linked with the PhD study of NICHE project in Can Tho City and MARE-Asia Vietnam for the case study in My Tho City and Buon Ma Thuot City, and CRC (the Netherlands, Australia, Singapore and Can Tho City). n. Schedule of Activities Activities Preparatory Data collection/processing Field measurement/survey Model development Feb-May June-Sept Oct-Dec Jan-Apr May-Aug Sept-Dec 22

7 Scenarios development Scenarios analysis and planning Workshop/Conference attendance Reporting References Chris Zevenbergen and Berry Gersonius, Challenges in Urban flood management, Delelegn, S. W., Pathirana, A., Gersonius, B., Adeogun, A. G., and Vairavamoorthy, K.: Multiobjective optimisation of cost-benefit of urban flood management using a 1D2D coupled model, Water Sci. Technol., 63, , doi: /wst , EDF-RD, 2D Hydrodynamics TELEMAC-2D Software, Reference manual, Version 6.0, Huong, H.T.L. and A. Pathirana, Urbanization and climate change impacts on future urban flooding in Can Tho city, Vietnam. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, (1): p MONRE: Climate change and sea level rise scenarios for Vietnam, Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment, Hanoi, Viet-nam, Phi, H L. The Mekong delta s challenges and Planning Implications, in Training Workshop on Challenges and Approaches in River Delta Planning. Sharing experiences from SE Asian Deltas and the Rhine-Meuse Delta2012: Ho Chi Minh city, Vietnam. World Bank, Tools for Building Urban Resilience: Integrating Risk Information into Investment Decisions. Pilot Cities Report Jakarta and Can Tho, 2012, Disaster Risk Management Team, East Asia and Pacific Infrastructure Unit (EASIN), The World Bank. p

8 Annex A: List of Deliverables Outputs Description Type of Output Expected Date Optimal detention Paper June 2013 modeling (leading) Model coupling and/or Paper December 2013 Flood modeling (leading) Review resilience (join Paper/Report December 2013 with Quan) Review risk analysis (join Paper/Report December 2013 with Quan) Water quality modeling, Paper September 2014 planning (join with Quan) Flexibility planning (join Paper/Report September 2014 with. Quan) Urban water quality (join Policy brief October 2014 with Quan) Flexibility Urban planning (join with Quan) Policy brief October 2014 Annex B: Budget Plan 2 ID Description Quantity Price (Euro) Total (Euro) 1 Data collection 1, Travel HCM - Can Tho - HCMC (10 times for 1 person) Travel in Can Tho (10 days for 1 persons) Hotel (10 days for 1 persons) Per diem (10 days for 1 persons) Stationery, copy, print Communication Conference/Workshop 1,200 Total (1)+(2) + (3) + (4) 3,000 2 This estimated budget does not include contribution from WACC, CCCO-CT yet. 24

9 Annex C: Working concept of the PRoACC2U 25