ANALYSING JOBS AND PUBLIC HEALTH BENEFITS OF CLEAN ENERGY DEVELOPMENT: CASE STUDY FOR BANGLADESH. Bansari Saha July 17, 2017 Asia LEDS Partnership

Transcription

1 ANALYSING JOBS AND PUBLIC HEALTH BENEFITS OF CLEAN ENERGY DEVELOPMENT: CASE STUDY FOR BANGLADESH Bansari Saha July 17, 2017 Asia LEDS Partnership

2 Outline Introduction Purpose and need for this type of analysis Background Methodology Modeling Framework Clean Energy Options for Bangladesh Results GHG Emissions Job Impacts Public Health Impacts Conclusion Replicability 2

3 Introduction 3

4 Introduction Understanding the full suite of benefits of clean energy development policies is a challenge in most developing countries Focus has been on quantifying GHG reduction benefits Sometimes, hard to justify costs of policy implementation without full understanding of all benefits Estimating other benefits is a challenge because of lack of data and adequate research Awareness is increasing across the world, especially in Asia This case study is an application that shows a simplified approach can be used to fill that void It is based on work conducted under multiple USAID initiatives on these issues 4

5 Energy Policy Analysis in Bangladesh Bangladesh faces significant challenges in electricity generation 10% annual growth rate in electricity demand projected for the foreseeable future Goal is to provide electricity for all by 2021 Bangladesh also faces significant climatic challenges IPCC predicts significant loss of landmass due to sea level rise Severe hit to agriculture due to changes in precipitation Are meeting the needs of both mutually exclusive? Can we improve energy security and physical security simultaneously? Need data and tools to analyze these important questions Tools created under CCEB are intended to inform these policy questions Power Sector Policy Analysis Model (PSPAM) 5

6 Background Catalyzing Clean Energy in Bangladesh (CCEB) Goal is to promote clean energy development in Bangladesh 5 areas of support, includes power sector improvements, energy efficiency, and clean cook stoves Resources to Advance LEDS Implementation (RALI) Goal is to help developing countries speed their transition to climate resilient, low emission, sustainable economic growth Helps countries measure and track GHG emissions and capacity building on policy reform tools for LEDS development ICF ( Provides professional services and technology solutions; founded in 1969 World-class domain expertise in energy, environment, transportation, health care, IT Diverse client base US Federal, state, local, commercial, international Over 5,000 employees, over $1billion in revenue 70 offices worldwide, HQ in Washington, DC metro area 6

7 Methodology 7

8 PSPAM Overview PSPAM s goal is to find mutually consistent energy development scenarios Options that meet the energy needs while lowering emissions Added co-benefits are improved air quality via reduced air pollution and domestic employment gains Analyze multiple what-if type national-level scenarios Assumptions about demand growth, fuel mix, power imports, etc. Bottom-up accounting of power fleet GHG emissions Provides impacts on multiple levels System costs, fuel requirements, generation mix, power prices, GHG and other emissions Not a substitute for generation planning tools Supplements capacity planning needs, with a less rigorous scenario planning model, adequate for high-level policy discussions 8

9 PSPAM Inputs Scenarios can be created by changing a variety of input parameters Fuel prices Technology costs and performance Electricity demand Plant efficiency (capacity factors) Financial assumptions (capital charge rates, exchange rates, etc.) Inputs can be dynamically adjusted to reflect changing national and/or global conditions Also allows for easy sensitivity analyses Modeling period extends to 2030, consistent with other GOB modeling (but can be further extended) Model provides flexibility of combining different parameter values for potentially unlimited number of policy scenarios 9

10 PSPAM Outputs Results are mostly presented graphically Easy to compare yearby-year variations Results focus on highlevel impacts on power system Generation types, costs, power prices, CO2 emissions Goal is to aid in policy discussions, not to predict precise impacts 10

11 Clean Energy Scenarios Does a country like Bangladesh have options for cost effective clean energy development? Yes, but choices can vary depending on the time horizon being considered Some are relatively easy and can be done in the short run Within the overall structure of the current power sector Some require more time and investments To improve power sector infrastructure Depends on some level of regional cooperation Investments in demand side and off-grid measures 11

12 Clean Energy Scenarios Clean Energy Policy 1 Short-term options Changes that can be done easily with costs comparable to current plans Fuel Switching from dirty liquid fuel to LNG planned to be imported Biomass co-firing up to 10% co-firing with existing and new coal generation Clean Energy Policy 2 Long-term options Cost effective changes that would require investments in infrastructure improvements and are thus considered more longer term options Cross border imports increase current imports from 5% to 20% by 2030 Demand side improvements invest in reducing electricity demand, along with generation increases Increasing energy efficiency: mostly in Commercial and Industrial sectors Increasing off-grid solar: expand the highly successful Solar Home Systems program Reducing system losses: by improving transmission and distribution network All impacts are measured over the Reference Case 12

13 Results 13

14 Changes in Generation Mix % fuel switching from liquid fuel to LNG Coal-based generation decreases from 26% to 23% Overall changes are not large but feasible and at comparable costs to Reference Case Electricity demand reduced 9% Cross border imports ( Other ) increase by 12% Results in reduced fossil generation (both coal and gas) by 20%

15 CO2 Emissions (Million Metric Tonnes) CO2 Emission Changes Emission changes are modest in 2020 (e.g., 4% under Policy 1) but much more significant in 2030 (e.g., 30% under Policy 2) At costs that are comparable to current fossil based growth trajectory Average generation costs are between 8 and 9 BDT/kWh Reference Case Clean Energy Policy 1 Clean Energy Policy 2 Reference Case Clean Energy Policy 1 Clean Energy Policy Coal Natural Gas LNG Liquid Fuel Other 15

16 Other Benefits of Clean Energy While GHG reduction benefits are important, it is not the full story Clean energy development will also help domestic economy in other ways Increased domestic jobs Such as through decreased dependence on fossil fuel imports Improvements in public health Via decreases in criteria pollutants (SO2 and NOx) and consequent improvements in air quality 16

17 Creating Domestic Jobs Different electricity generation technologies have different employment potential Either during construction and operational phases Evidence suggests clean energy (both RE and EE) can have more local job benefits than fossil generation Most developing countries depend on imported fossil fuel, leading to vital leakage of domestic resources Empirical estimates exist for OECD countries, used here with appropriate adjustments to customize to Bangladeshi context Need for more research and data collection in these areas in the developing countries 17

18 Per Unit Job Estimates by Technology Solar (both off-grid and on-grid) and EE can have over 6-7 times the job impacts of coal-based generation 2020 (jobs-years* /GWh) 2030 (job-years* /GWh) Coal Domestic Coal Imported Biomass Natural Gas Liquefied Natural Gas Liquid Fuel Hydro Solar Wind Nuclear Cross Border Reduced System Losses Energy Efficiency Off-grid Renewables

19 Job-years Domestic Jobs Due to Clean Energy 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 - Reference Case Clean Energy Policy 1 Clean Energy Policy 2 Reference Case Clean Energy Policy 1 Clean Energy Policy Coal Natural Gas LNG Liquid Fuel Other Demand Reduction Measures 19

20 Jobs Results Summary Job impacts under Clean Energy Policy 1 are not expected to be significant Overall, only about job-years annually Changes are marginal and reliance on imported LNG diminishes domestic job benefits Job impacts are more significant under Clean Energy Policy 2 Overall, between 5,000 8,000 job-years annually between 2020 and 2030 Cumulatively, this scenario could lead to over 55,000 job-years by 2030 All at costs comparable to current plans (Reference Case) but with significantly lower GHG emissions 20

21 Public Health Benefits Bangladesh, like most developing countries, faces significant air quality problems Problem is greater in large cities, like Dhaka and Chittagong Clean energy policies not only reduce GHG emissions but also other air pollutants By displacing fossil fuel combustion needs Improves air quality and human health Research and data availability are limited to conduct a comprehensive modeling analysis This study uses a benefits transfer approach to estimate public health benefits 21

22 Emissions (Tonnes) SO2/NOx Emission Changes Up to 30% reduction in SO2 and NOx emissions by 2030 under the Clean Energy scenarios 1,000, ,000 Domestic Coal Imported Coal Natural Gas Liquid Fuel Biomass 800, , , , , , , ,000 - SO2 NOx SO2 NOx SO2 NOx SO2 NOx SO2 NOx SO2 NOx Reference Case Clean Energy Policy 1 Clean Energy Policy 2 Reference Case Clean Energy Policy 1 Clean Energy Policy

23 Premature Deaths Health Benefits: Reduced Premature Deaths Policy 1 could help avoid over 1,000 premature deaths by 2020 Policy 2 could help avoid over premature deaths by ,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 - Reference Case Clean Energy Policy 1 Clean Energy Policy 2 Reference Case Clean Energy Policy 1 Clean Energy Policy Estimated Premature Deaths (Annual) 23

24 Health Results Summary Bangladesh s current electricity growth path (Reference Case) is estimated to contribute to Over 123,000 premature deaths by 2030 At a cost of US$ 23 billion Even small changes, such as those under Clean Energy Policy 1 could help Reduce premature deaths by over 5,000 by 2020 Generate cost savings of about US$ 1 billion More substantive changes under Clean Energy Policy 2 could Reduce premature deaths by over 27,000 by 2030 At a cost saving of over US$ 5 billion 24

25 Conclusion 25

26 Replicability Understanding the health and economic benefits of clean energy development is vital to Low Emissions Development Strategies Helps make a stronger case for clean energy with policymakers More research is needed to gather data to analyze these questions Public health consequences are less scrutinized except in certain countries with extreme problems (e.g., China, India) Job impacts of different generation technology choices are also lacking Methods such as those discussed in this study can be used to estimate order-of-magnitude impacts for different countries Most countries have the kind of information used here and should be able to quantify these benefits 26

27 Conclusion Addressing the problems of climate change does not have to take away from a country s economic development goals Meeting the needs of both are not mutually exclusive Gradual transition to clean energy has multi-pronged benefits For Bangladesh and others Cumulatively (by 2030), these scenarios can Reduce GHG emissions by over 20% affordably and costeffectively Improve air quality and public health and save over 27,000 lives Create over 27,000 domestic jobs 27

28 Thank you for your time Questions? Bansari Saha