WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION CCl/MG/2010/Doc. 12 COMMISSION FOR CLIMATOLOGY MANAGEMENT GROUP MEETING ITEM 12. GENEVA, Switzerland, May 2010

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1 WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION CCl/MG/2010/Doc. 12 COMMISSION FOR CLIMATOLOGY MANAGEMENT GROUP MEETING ITEM 12 GENEVA, Switzerland, May 2010 Introduction PROPOSED REORGANIZATION OF THE WORLD CLIMATE PROGRAMME (Avinash Tyagi) 12. The World Climate Program (WCP) was established in 1979 (Res. 29, Cg-8,) which evolved into an interagency collaborative program encompassing the UN System as well as other interested international institutions. Wide Res. 12 (Cg-XI) in 1991, the Congress decided to reconstitute the World Climate Programme to provide an inter-agency interdisciplinary framework to address the full range of climate and climate change issues. In view of subsequent decisions of the Congress, developments related to climate issues and the decision of WCC-3 to establish the Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS), the Executive Council has expressed the need to revisit the World Climate Programme. This note proposes re-organisation of the World Climate Programme to facilitate the implementation of GFCS and would be updated as and when the final outcome of the High level Taskforce on GFCS is available World Climate Programme WCP plays a fundamental role in the provision of authoritative assessments of climate science and climate impacts, in the further development of climate applications and services, in improving systematic observations of climate and climate monitoring, and in climate system research. World Climate Programme has four main objectives as articulated in the 4 th Long Term Plan as approved by Cg-XI: 1. To improve the understanding of climate processes for determining the predictability of climate, including its variability and change, identifying the extent of human influence on climate and developing the capability for climate prediction; 2. To facilitate the effective collection and management of climate data and the monitoring of the global climate system, including the detection and assessment of climate variability and changes; 3. To foster the effective application of climate knowledge and information for the benefit of society and the provision of climate services, including the prediction of significant climate variations, both natural variations and those resulting from human activity; and 4. To assess the impacts of climate variability and changes that could markedly affect ecosystems, economic or social activities and advise governments thereon, and contribute to the development of a range of social and economic response strategies that could be used by governments and the community The four components of the WCP as approved by Cg-XI are: 1. World Climate Research Programme (WCRP); 2. World Climate Data and Monitoring Programme (WCDMP); 3. World Climate Applications and Services Programme (WCASP); and 4. World Climate Impact assessment and Response Strategies Programme (WCIRP)

2 CCl/MG/2010/Doc. 12, p Climate Information and Prediction Project Subsequently, Cg-XII (1995) approved the Climate Information and Prediction Project (CLIPS) as part of WCASP with the following objectives in Cg-XIII, 1999: 1. To demonstrate the value and eventual socio-economic benefits of information and prediction services; 2. To provide an international framework to enhance and promote climate information and prediction, including the establishment of criteria to measure forecast quality and to permit model inter-comparison; 3. To encourage the development of operational climate prediction; 4. To facilitate the definition, the development and the strengthening of a global network of regional and national climate centres. Rationale for restructuring 12.3 The new paradigm presented by GFCS The World Climate Conference-3 (WCC-3), decided to establish a Global Framework for Climate Services to strengthen the production, availability, delivery and application of science based climate prediction and services. The Framework is conceived as an integrating set of international arrangements which will be built upon the established global climate observation and research programmes as well as operational structures and proposed to have five major components: (i) Observations; (ii) Climate research, modelling and prediction; (iii) a Climate Services Information System; (iv) a Climate User Interface Programme; and (v) Capacity Building. Many of these elements (systems, programmes, projects, institutions etc.) are either in place or are in the process of being established. The WCP has therefore to re-orient to lay more emphasis on provision of climate services on a regular and sustainable basis Decisions of Congress on various programmes during last six years While reviewing the WCP, it is important that the decisions of Congress, establishing various Programmes within WMO since 1991, are kept in view. It may be recalled that two new major programmes/ initiatives approved by Congress that have direct relevance to WCP are the Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) Programme and the WMO Integrated Global Observing System (WIGOS). Cg-XIV established the DRR Programme in 2003 to strengthen and integrate disaster risk reduction processes related to meteorological, hydrological and climate services through this crosscutting Programme Subsequently, Cg-XV approved the WMO Integrated Global Observing System (WIGOS) as a concept for a comprehensive, coordinated and sustainable system of observing systems. WIGOS is based on all WMO Programmes observational requirements, including climate. It provides a single focus for the operational and management functions of all WMO observing systems as well as a framework and mechanism for interactions with WMO cosponsored observing systems enabling integration, cooperation and coordination taking into account the multiplicity of perspectives and observing domains covered by WIGOS. Through the WMO Information System (WIS), it will ensure availability of required data, metadata and products according to identified requirements Review of WCRP by its sponsors A review of the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) was carried out by a Review Panel appointed by its co-sponsors - the International Council for Science (ICSU), World Meteorological Organization (WMO), and the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC) of UNESCO and the International Group of Funding Agencies for Global Change Research (IGFA) in The report of the WCRP Review Panel recognizes the many important achievements of this international scientific research programme, and concluded that WCRP can play a significant role in helping society meet the challenges of global climate change. It

3 CCl/MG/2010/Doc. 12, p.3 recommended that to meet these challenges WCRP must connect with partners and users in strategic ways, and that it would need new resources to do so Climate Knowledge base: the UN System delivering as one on Climate WMO and UNESCO jointly are the coordinators of the Climate Knowledge base under UN System Delivering as One. This new UN system wide coherent approach on climate change activities, which has brought new level of coordination among UN agencies, with WCC3 as one of the outcomes of this approach, provides the opportunity for WMO and the NMSs to show that WMO is naturally structured to support climate knowledge with other agencies and sectoral organizations to work with them on the application of climate information and services in the various impact and adaptation sectors Earlier decisions of EC-WG-CWE on review and aligning WCP The EC LX (2008), while discussing the progress report under ER 2 had concluded that WMO should retain WCP as the overarching framework for all its climate activities. The Council had also desired that there was need for major refocusing of its activities under WCP. EC WG- CWE in its meeting in February 2009 had considered Review of WCP and Climate Agenda prepared by the Secretariat (Appendix). The Group had recalled the historical significance of the WCP and noted that WMO was the only leading Organization which implemented them at a time when no other major Organization had developed a strong interest in climate related issues. It noted that the WCP was enormously successful, since its operation triggered global attention on climate issues. The Group noted that WCP has fostered the effective application of climate knowledge and information for the benefit of society and the provision of climate services and as such the Group further noted that expected the Global Framework for Climate Services would particularly require a refocusing of the WCP components of WCDMP and WCASP Subsequently, the EC WG-CWE after its meeting in February 2009, in its report to the ECLXI recommended that the Climate Agenda would finally be retired and replaced by the (then proposed) Global Framework for Climate Services. However, it suggested deferring final decision on the future of the WCP and the Climate Agenda until after the WCC3. It suggested that after the outcomes of WCC-3 had become known, the Executive Council (EC-LXII in 2010) could then take a final view and forward the proposal to Cg-XVI for its consideration and approval in Given the larger scope of the GFCS, and its very nature as a framework which is likely to involve the NMHSs and many other partners, both within and outside the UN system, the EC-WG-CWE at its meeting in March 2010 decided to recommend to the Executive Council that the activities under the World Climate Programme should be focused so that it can be appropriately monitored and evaluated by the WMO constituent bodies. It recommended that the further development of the proposed structure of the future WCP be based on the essential elements of the future GFCS including GCOS, WCRP and a new world climate services programme. The EC-WG-CWE opined that the detailed components of the WCP, however, should be finalized as the report of HLT on the details of GFCS structure becomes available Salient points Most of the WMO Programmes are having considerable inputs to GFCS, therefore while defining the WCP components for the future, it is important to distinguish between scope of WCP vis a vis that of GFCS. WCP should be seen as only one of the WMO Programs (unarguably the most important) among many others contributing to the GFCS. Incidentally, the implementation of GFCS will not only achieve Expected Result 1 3 but will also support achievement of ER 1 and ER 2 while it will use the outcomes of ER 5 and ER 6 for its success through partnerships created under ER 7. 1 Please see Table 2 for list of Expected Results, refer to Draft Strategic Plan

4 CCl/MG/2010/Doc. 12, p In the past, one of the components of WCP, the WCIRP, has been lead by UNEP. Monitoring and evaluation of the programme has been challenging as WMO constituent bodies had little say in its functioning. The proposed restructuring of WCP provides an opportunity to refocus WCP largely as a WMO driven Programme but continuing to pursue the participation of other agencies. As such, it is proposed to drop WCIRP as a component of WCP. However, some of the activities, which are within the domain of NMSs and are directly linked to development of services, such as the impacts of ENSO, are included under the Climate Monitoring and Prediction Programme The activities under WCDMP have always been challenging and form the basic building blocks of climate services. These are expanding both in terms of data management and addressing the data quality issues as well as monitoring requirements at global and regional scales. Within WCDMP current mandate, Monitoring has a broad meaning which involves both short term and long term scale as well as observation part which is shared with GCOS. In addition under CCl guidance and Congress decision, WCDMP was mandated to develop climate alert/ climate watch and related systems at regional level. This task has strong operational character and it would fit well within the new proposed CSIS of the GFCS. In the new formulation of the WCP Monitoring is proposed as a Key Terms of Reference of the World Climate Programme. The proposed Climate Data and Analysis Programme (CDAP) component will take over most of current WCDMP activities (minus climate watch) while assuming the new challenges of data quality. The WMO climate statements and reviews will stay within CDAP since these are within the scope of climate analysis Currently the WCASP mandate encompasses activities involving climate prediction as well as climate applications along with the implementation of CLIPS project. In view of the special emphasis on the closer interaction with the users and to address sector specific needs there is need to provide focus on development of standardized approaches to climate products. There is need to ensure that basic requirements of sound climate predictions are met along with the operational climate monitoring activities (climate watches) to make them effectively tied with predictions to ensure well coordinated climate watch systems at global, regional and national levels. It is therefore proposed to set up a Climate Watch and Prediction Program (CWPP) as a natural evolution of an important part of WCASP/CLIPS while taking additional responsibility of climate watch and other new challenges. CWPP will constitute the international plate-form for collaboration amongst Members and assistance of each other in developing a sound global climate prediction and watch system based on operational climate monitoring products with respect to climate watches and the best available methodologies for climate predictions at monthly, seasonal, annual and decadal scale. CWPP will also coordinate the provision of WMO global climate watch updates Climate Adaptation and Risk Management aspects of climate services are being given greater emphasis by having a separate Programme. The Climate Adaptation and Risk Management Programme (CARP) is a relatively new approach, but many of the elements of work against these themes have been implicit within the World Climate Applications and Services Programme since its inception in 1979, but need to be provided greater impetus. The activities proposed under CARP were earlier being covered by WCASP in a limited manner and would strengthen the role of WMO in WCUIP component of GFCS Cg-XII in 1991, recognising the need for better coordination of climate activities within different components of WCP as well as with climate programmes of other organisation established the Climate Programme Coordination and Support Activities. Later it also served as the secretariat of the IACCA and coordinated with UNFCCC and other UN System organisations Brief description of each of the components, which will be working in close coordination, is described in the ANNEX. It may be mentioned that all of them will have to work under a well established quality management framework and support capacity building in their respective area of activities.

5 CCl/MG/2010/Doc. 12, APPENDIX 1, p. 1 ANNEX THE PROPOSED RE-STRUCTURED WORLD CLIMATE PROGRAMME The objectives of re-structured WCP 1. EC-LXI had emphasized that that WCP should primarily aim at enhancing climate services with adequate focus on user interaction. Given the increased focus on the need for adaptation that is implemented at local level and requires climate information and services available at all levels of society from global to regional, national and local the objective of the refocused World Climate Programme are: (a) To improve the understanding of climate processes for determining the predictability of climate, including its variability and change, identifying the extent of human influence on climate and developing the capability for climate prediction; (b) To facilitate the effective collection and management of climate data and the monitoring of the global climate system, including the detection and assessment of climate variability and changes; (c) To facilitate operational monitoring of the climate at global and regional scale to enable issue of early warnings of extreme climatic events; (d) To enhance and promote climate information and prediction, by providing an international framework and establishing the operational elements of production and delivery systems for climate services; (e) To foster the effective application of climate knowledge and information for the benefit of society and the provision of climate services, including the prediction of significant climate variations, both natural variations and those resulting from human activity; and (f) To facilitate better management of the risks of climate variability and change into planning, policy and practice through close interaction with sectoral users. Components of the restructured WCP 2. In view of the expanded scope the new World Climate Programme is proposed to consist of following components: (i) World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) (ii) Global Climate Observing system (GCOS) (iii) Climate Data and Analysis Programme (CDAP) (iv) Climate Watch and Prediction Programme (CWPP) (v) Climate Operation and Infrastructure Programme (CSOP) (Alt: Climate Related Infrastructure and Services (CRIS) (vi) Climate Adaptation and Risk Management Programme (CARP) WORLD CLIMATE RESEARCH PROGRAMME 3. Objectives of WCRP: Assessing the nature and predictability of the seasonal to inter-decadal variations of climate system at global and regional scales, and providing scientific basis for operational predictions of these variations for use in climate services in support of sustainable development; Detecting climate change and attributing causes, and projecting the magnitude and rate of human-induced climate change, regional variations and related sealevel rise;

6 CCl/MG/2010/Doc. 12, APPENDIX 1, p. 2 Responding to the research needs of IPCC, UNFCCC and other climate related conventions, and of other components of WCP; and Encouraging greater participation of scientists from developing countries. GLOBAL CLIMATE OBSERVING SYSTEM Scope of GCOS 4. The GCOS is build on existing operational and scientific observing, data management and information distribution systems, and further enhancement of those systems. It was envisaged to be based upon, improved World Weather Watch system, establishment of a global ocean observing system for physical, chemical and ecological measurements, and the maintenance and enhancement of programmes monitoring other key components of the climate system, such as the distribution of important atmospheric constituents (including GAW), changes in terrestrial ecosystems, clouds and hydrological cycle, the earth s radiation budget, ice sheets and precipitation over the oceans. Objectives of GCOS: 5. The objective of GCOS is to provide comprehensive information on the total climate system involving multi-disciplinary range of atmospheric, oceanic, hydrologic, cryospheric and biotic properties and processes by meeting the needs for: Climate system monitoring, Climate change detection and monitoring of the response to climate change, Research towards improved understanding, modeling and prediction of the climate system, Application to national economic development. CLIMATE DATA AND ANALYSIS PROGRAMME (CDAP) Scope of CDAP 6. CDAP will contribute to improve the availability and access to reliable data, advancement of the knowledge in the area of climate data management and climate analysis, definition of the technical and scientific standards, and development of activities to support them in countries. In order to improve the availability of climate data the programme will develop standards and ensure that WCP Requirements for climate observations are met. This will require overall guidance of and collaboration with CIMO, CBS, GCOS and WIGOS. Climate data management will include data rescue, development and coordination of a global climate data management system compatible with the WIS. It involves development of methodologies for developing data sets (QC/QA, homogeneity, gridding, Reanalysis Data, etc.). The climate analysis programme will aspire to develop methods and tools for analyzing trends, anomalies, frequencies and extreme values. It will support work on climate indices in a changing climate and develop methodologies for defining extreme climate events and assessment and analysis of their occurrence and attribution involving dynamical and physical processes. 7. Objectives of CDAP: To improve availability of referral systems on climate information (data sets, station networks and data management) with the required quantity and quality at national, regional and global level;

7 CCl/MG/2010/Doc. 12, APPENDIX 1, p. 3 To facilitate the development and implementation of methods to enable rescue, preservation and management of climate data by Members, especially developing countries, and to promote international exchange of climate data and related products; To coordinate the development of global climate databases including metadata, in both national and international repositories and to provide for the exchange with the required time resolution and timeliness needed for the GFCS, UNFCC process and IPCC work; To coordinate the preparation of and distribution of global and regional data sets, including metadata as required for both research and the development of climate information and prediction services; To assist and guide the NMHS in analyzing climate variability, change and related extreme events, develop awareness of inter-annual variability of the global climate system and facilitate generation, interpretation and dissemination of this information; To provide regular assessments and authoritative statements on the interpretation and applicability of instrumental and proxy data for the study of climate change, and the validation of climate models and forecasts; and To coordinate development of a scientifically sound global system of monitoring, analysis, diagnosing and disseminating information on significant climatic anomalies, events and climate change. CLIMATE WATCH AND PREDICTION PROGRAMME (CWPP) Scope of CWPP 8. The CWPP will advance the knowledge in climate watches and climate prediction by defining their contents, developing prediction methodologies, including their requirements and standard and coordinating their organizational aspects. It will facilitate provision of regular global and regional consensus statements on the climate monitoring and prediction, through expert assessments (facilitated by climate outlook forum process), and tailoring and assessments of the reliability of climate products. The programme will identify core products of climate services at the national level taking into account the user needs and in alignment with the global and regional products and inputs. The programme would establish and maintain research-operations linkages to expedite the implementation of research advances in operational climate services and to ensure ongoing improvement to the operational practices and outcomes. The programme would support Members need to identify the education and skills required of climate specialists, and to facilitate the required training and capacity building. 9. Objectives: To support review of available scientific knowledge and development of climate prediction methodologies at monthly, seasonal, annual and decadal time scales based on best available scientific knowledge; To develop and support consensus-based climate updates including both monitoring and prediction products; To facilitate close interactions between operational and research communities to identify the needs and provide requirements of Members in climate predictions, support the development of practical methods and techniques and to provide easy access to them To support and incorporate user feedback to improve capacity in providing actionable climate products and services; To support Members in promoting use of climate information and prediction, including the establishment of criteria to measure forecast quality and to permit model inter-comparison; To support development of methods and tools for operational climate predictions( monthly, seasonal, annual and decadal) and climate watch systems and assessment of their socio-economic value; and

8 CCl/MG/2010/Doc. 12, APPENDIX 1, p. 4 To coordinate development of WMO climate watch updates (El Nino/La Niña, seasonal updates, etc ) and advisories. CLIMATE SYSTEM OPERATIONS AND INFRASTRUCTURE PROGRAMME (CSOP) Scope of CSOP 10. Given that climate processes operate on a wide range of space/time scales, the flow of information from global to local scales is essential and must be ensured. For an effective delivery of climate information, it is essential to put in place appropriate institutional mechanisms to generate, exchange and disseminate quality information at global, regional and national levels on an operational basis. The Climate System Operations and infrastructure Programme (CSOP) would facilitate the establishment of a network of global, regional and national entities, including Global Producing Centres of Long Range Forecasts (GPCs), Global Data Centres (GDCs), Regional Climate Centres (RCCs) and NCCs that would serve as key elements that develop and provide the climate information. The scope of CSOP is essentially to coordinate define, develop, strengthen and sustain this operational mechanisms to produce and disseminate climate products and services, including their linkages. In order to plan the human and financial resources required to set up and operationally provide climate information, products and services and to ensure their quality, countries will require guidance on the requirements and best practices for establishing climate service programmes. 11. Objectives: To build an effective infrastructure for seasonal to inter-annual climate predictions that consolidates, in an operational framework, the progress made by research programme, by facilitating the development of network of regional and national climate centres and their capabilities to deliver effective climate information and prediction services; To facilitate smooth flow of operational climate information through the GPC- RCC-NCC framework; To facilitate definition, development and standardisation of operational climate prediction products and promote standards and quality management in operational climate product generation, exchange and dissemination at various levels; To support operational production of global-scale climate products, including seasonal predictions; To support regional cooperation for capacity building and infrastructure development for the provision of climate monitoring services for seasonal to interannual climate prediction; and To support development and implementation, globally, of National Climate Services (NCSs), as an effective mechanism to undertake and/or coordinate climate information and prediction services at the national level. CLIMATE ADAPTATION AND RISK MANAGEMENT PROGRAMME (CARP) Scope of CARP 12. The Climate Risk Management and Adaptation will cover the near future to the longterm climate risks by promoting the use of reliable and available climate information, methods, tools and systems. Where necessary, new interdisciplinary work will be launched to develop additional methods and tools, with resultant products. Due to the interdisciplinary nature of this work, the Programme must be collaborative in the conduct of its activities. Building of capacity for the professional climate community, and for the non-specialist users of climate information, through development of knowledge, training and outreach will be an

9 CCl/MG/2010/Doc. 12, APPENDIX 1, p. 5 essential part of the programme. Initially, the work will focus on the agriculture/food security, water resources and disaster risk management sectors. Over time, the methods, tools and systems will evolve to cover the requirements of other key social and economic sectors through various UN agencies, institutions and societies including WHO, UNWTO, IAUC, ISB, universities, etc. The programme will interact closely with WMO s DRR, HWR and AgM Programmes and their relevant Technical Commissions. Objectives of CARP 13. The long-term objectives of CARP are: To support inter-disciplinary and user-oriented research and development to generate new applications of climate information and prediction products and stimulate their use; To support the interdisciplinary applied climate research for better understanding of the influence of climate factors on sectoral activities and outcomes in order to develop methods and tools for generating sector-specific climate information and products; To improve understanding of the relationships between climate factors and the vulnerability of various sectors and regions and demonstrate the value and eventual socio-economic benefits of information and prediction services; To facilitate easy access to practical techniques for applications of climate information and prediction products, demonstrate their value and potential and support the development of practical ways for linking them to user requirements; Assist socio-economic sectors and other users to understand the sensitivity of their activities to climate variability and change, manage climate-related risks and opportunities, and to develop sound strategies for adaptation to climate change; To help Members in developing climate application services based on the climate information and knowledge, including long-lead forecasts, for national sustainable development; To support NMSs to effectively interact with and provide meaningful services and actionable products to users and thereby contribute to national adaptation, development and risk management plans; To facilitate raising awareness of climate as a risk and as a resource, with particular emphasis on public safety and welfare, and to better communicate climate information to specialists with limited climate background; and of climate information and knowledge; WCP/GFCS Coordination activities 14. Considering the complexity and multidisciplinary nature of the WCP it would require partnership with a wide range of partners. A two-tiered mechanism for the coordination of cross-cutting climate activities and partnership is proposed in order to establish institutional mechanisms to coordinate WMO s inter-agency climate activities within the UN System and with other sponsoring agencies on one hand and an internal coordination mechanism across various programmes. At technical level an Inter-commission Group consisting of the presidents of all WMO Technical Commissions would be set up to facilitate coordination among them to guide the WCP. In order to interact with the other UN partners a dedicated unit will be required. The coordination unit can also act as the secretariat for the governing mechanism (to be) set up for GFCS. 15. Objectives: To ensure effective coordination of the implementation of the components of the WCP and its associated activities; To ensure inter-agency coordination of the activities within the GFCS;

10 CCl/MG/2010/Doc. 12, APPENDIX 1, p. 6 To support inter-governmental activities on the climate change activities, including the work of IPCC and the UNFCCC; and Ensure WMO s proper contribution and response to UN environmental conventions (UNFCCC, UNCCD and UNCBD); Ensure a coherent, science based approach for dissemination of knowledge within the Climate Knowledge Base mandate given to WMO and UNESCO under UN Delivering as One in the United Nations System; and Enable and enhance participation of NMSs in climate policy deliberations for adaptation and decision-making processes. Monitoring and oversight mechanism 16. The monitoring and evaluation of WCP will be undertaken through the well established mechanism of the Executive Council. The EC may charge the ECWG established to advise the EC on climate matters with the functions of oversight, coordination, monitoring and review of WCP and its contribution to GFCS