Accomplishments of the U.S. Global Change Research Program

Transcription

1 WATER SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY BOARD Accomplishments of the U.S. Global Change Research Program Committee to Advise the USGCRP Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate Board on Environmental Change and Society February 15, 2017

2 Committee to Advise the USGCRP This standing committee (est. 2011) provides ongoing and focused advice to the USGCRP. Broadly constituted to bring expertise in all the areas addressed by the USGCRP and is supported by the expertise of many units across the National Academies Recent reports: Enhancing Participation in the USGCRP (2015) Review of Draft Update to the Strategic Plan (2016) Characterizing Risk: Workshop Proceedings (2016) Accomplishments of the USGCRP (2017) Topical discussions at meetings: E.g., research needs for vulnerability assessment; international engagement; improved decision support for adaptation and mitigation 2

3 Advisory Committee Members Warren Washington (Chair) National Center for Atmospheric Research Kai Lee (Vice Chair) Retired from The David and Lucile Packard Foundation Doug Arent Joint Institute for Strategic Energy Analysis, National Renewable Energy Laboratory Susan Avery Woods Hole Oceanographic Institute Arrietta Chakos Urban Resilience Strategies Peter Daszak EcoHealth Alliance Thomas Dietz Michigan State University Kristie Lee Ebi University of Washington Baruch Fischhoff Carnegie Mellon University Nancy B. Grimm Arizona State University Henry Jacoby Massachusetts Institute of Technology Anthony C. Janetos Boston University Jerry Melillo * Marine Biological Laboratory Richard H. Moss Joint Global Change Research Institute University of Maryland Ian Roy Noble Global Adaption Institute Margo Oge Retired from Environmental Protection Agency Kathleen Segerson University of Connecticut Kathleen Tierney University of Colorado at Boulder Charles J. Vorosmarty City University of New York Brian Zuckerman IDA Science and Technology Policy Institute Staff: Amanda Purcell Amanda Staudt Paul Stern * Committee lead for this report 3

4 This Task Significant USGCRP science and research accomplishments Lessons learned for future planning Broad-brush review of USGCRP outputs 4

5 Approach Is based on review of published literature: USGCRP Strategic Plans and Annual Reports to Congress Assessment Products National Academies reports Other published scientific literature Focuses on two primary activities of USGCRP: Strategic Planning and Coordination Assessments and Stakeholder Engagement Reflects scope of Global Change Research Act (GCRA) Describes history and evolution of program Describes how USGCRP provides benefits the nation by: Enabling major scientific advancements (4 examples) Connecting to decisions (flowcharts) 5

6 The USGCRP provides a platform for the agencies to coordinate their global change research and to share information that helps to inform decisions at every level of society in ways that have provided great value to the nation. 6

7 Four Illustrative Examples of Science and Research Accomplishments Examples show accomplishments achieved through strategic planning and coordination of the Program: Global observing systems Earth system modeling Carbon cycle science Integration of human dimensions 7

8 Earth System Modeling In 1990, models focused on the atmosphere, with crude clouds and radiation and little interaction with ocean and land surfaces. Not useful for smaller-scale features such as tropical storms, hurricanes, or sharply defined warm and cold fronts. 8

9 Earth System Modeling Significant investments by several USGCRP agencies over the past 25 years have addressed many of the 1990 limitations (e.g., ability to replicate past climate). 9

10 Predicting USGCRP Research & Coordination Evolving priorities in strategic plans: GCRA Predictions, using quantitative models of the Earth system to identify and simulate global environmental processes and trends, and the regional implications of such processes and trends. Integrating priority 3: Develop integrated conceptual and predictive Earth system models. Goal 3: Reduce uncertainty in projections of how the Earth s climate and related systems may change in the future. Basic research by USGCRP agencies Reflected in annual reports to Congress Interagency Group on Integrative Modeling established Objective 1.4: Integrated Modeling Model Complexity Model Interpretation, Conceptual Modeling, and Hierarchies of Model Complexity Integrated Modeling of Complex Systems Dynamics and Decision Support 10

11 USGCRP Research & Coordination Advancements in understanding and observations of global change also lead to Earth system modeling advancements. USGCRP agencies play a role in international modeling efforts, specifically CMIP. Assessment process inspires coordination. E.g., collaboration on technical inputs Assessment products 11

12 Key Assessments for Earth System Modeling 12

13 USGCRP Role in Informing Decisions For example, more accurate forecasts of near-term risks such as drought or informing maps of coastal flood risk. Science Question How do climate variability and change affect the frequency and locations of extreme hydrological events? USGCRP Research & Coordination Basic research by agencies Interagency Group on Integrative Modeling What We Learned Extreme hydrological events are becoming increasingly common. Research to improve drought predictions over seasons and years ahead of time USGCRP Research Priorities How It s Used Maps of risk for coastal flooding Drought early warning system Climate USGCRP Synthesis & Assessment National Climate Assessments SAP 3.1 Climate Change Models: An Assessment of Strengths and Limitations SAP 3.3 Weather and Climate Extremes in a Changing 13

14 Mandated by GCRA Assessments Process and products have evolved to meet the needs of the nation The USGCRP has been a leader in innovating and advancing the practice of assessment. E.g., connecting knowledge users and producers The USGCRP has played a major role in establishing, providing scientific inputs for, and preparing international scientific assessments (specifically IPCC). 14

15 Challenges Remain Lack of authority over individual agency missions or budgets, which imposes limitations on the Program s abilities to plan and support research Recognized need to integrate social science research within the Program s global change research portfolio, but there remain obstacles to this effort: Lack of sustained funding Lack of social scientists on staff 15

16 Looking forward Build on past 25 years by: Sustaining, expanding, and coordinating observations of the Earth system Maintaining a balanced program of discovery-driven and useinspired research to support the needs of the nation at local, regional, national, and global scales Support global enterprise of research, data development, and analysis through joint research, global observation, and international assessment 16

17 In closing In the coming decades, the impacts of global change will become increasingly apparent, and the Program will need to augment the knowledge base for exploring options to protect the nation s interests in the face of accelerating global changes The Program is well poised to tackle this task. 17

18 Acknowledgments Committee to Advise the USGCRP (report lead: Jerry Melillo) and Staff USGCRP NCO Staff and Principals Tom Karl, Virginia Burkett, Tony Busalacchi, and Susi Moser (our interviewees) Michael Bernstein (our research support) Those involved in report review: Monitor: David Karl, University of Hawaii at Manoa Coordinator: Gary Yohe, Wesleyan University Reviewers: Kevin R. Arrigo, Stanford University, CA Anthony Bebbington, Clark University, Worcester, MA Robert W. Corell, Global Environment and Technology Foundation, Arlington, VA Katharine L. Jacobs, University of Arizona, Tucson Philip J. Rasch, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA Thomas H. Vonder Haar, Colorado State University, Fort Collins Duane E. Waliser, NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, CA Richard N. Wright, National Institute of Standards and Technology (ret.), Montgomery Village, MD 18