Global Risk Assessment 2015

Transcription

1 Impact Global Risks Landscape 2015 Weapons of mass destruction Spread of Infectious diseases climate-change Energy price adaptation World Economic infrastructure breakdown shock Forum Fiscal crises Unemployment Biodiversity loss and Cyber underemployment ecosystem collapse Terrorist (~900 Political and Corporate Leaders) Asset bubble Unmanageable inflation financial mechanism or institution Food crises Profound social instability or crisis Interstate conflict Global Risk Assessment 2015 Data fraud Large-scale or theft critical infrastructure Extreme weather events Likelihood 1

2 Impact Global Risks Landscape 2015 Weapons of mass destruction Unmanageable inflation infrastructure breakdown Spread of Infectious diseases Biodiversity loss and ecosystem collapse financial mechanism or institution Energy price shock Terrorist Food crises climate-change adaptation Fiscal crises Cyber Asset bubble Profound social instability or crisis Interstate conflict Unemployment or underemployment Data fraud Large-scale or theft critical infrastructure Extreme weather events Likelihood 2

3 Impact Global Risks Landscape 2015 Weapons of mass destruction Unmanageable inflation infrastructure breakdown Biodiversity loss and ecosystem collapse financial mechanism or institution Spread of Infectious diseases Energy price shock climate-change adaptation Fiscal crises Cyber Asset bubble Profound social instability or crisis Interstate conflict Unemployment or underemployment Data fraud Large-scale or theft critical infrastructure Extreme weather events Likelihood 3

4 Impact Global Risks Landscape 2015 Weapons of mass destruction Unmanageable inflation infrastructure breakdown Biodiversity loss and ecosystem collapse financial mechanism or institution Spread of Infectious diseases Energy price shock climate-change adaptation Fiscal crises Cyber Asset bubble Profound social instability or crisis Interstate conflict Unemployment or underemployment Data fraud Large-scale or theft critical infrastructure Extreme weather events Likelihood 4

5 Impact Global Risks Landscape 2015 Weapons of mass destruction Unmanageable inflation infrastructure breakdown Spread of Infectious diseases Biodiversity loss and ecosystem collapse financial mechanism or institution Energy price shock Terrorist Food crises climate-change adaptation Fiscal crises Cyber Asset bubble Profound social instability or crisis Interstate conflict Unemployment or underemployment Data fraud Large-scale or theft critical infrastructure Extreme weather events Likelihood 5

6 Global Risks 2015 Interconnections Biodiversity loss and ecosystem collapse Spread of infectious diseases climate change adaptation Extreme weather events Food crises Large-scale urban planning infrastructure breakdown Cyber Interstate conflicts Terrorist Weapons of mass destruction Data fraud or theft or crises Energy price shock Profound social instability Unmanageable inflation critical infrastructure Unemployment or underemployment Asset Fiscal crises bubble financial mechanisms or institution 6

7 WATER EXTREMES WATER SECURITY WATER QUALITY 7 Interrelated Grand Challenges

8 Water Prediction WEATHER HYDROLOGY COASTAL Environmental Intelligence: Total Water Prediction Precipitation Evaporation Snowmelt Runoff Channel Flow River Flooding Flash Flooding Drought Storm Surge Tides Sea Level Rise Transformation of NOAA s Water Prediction Services 8

9 WATER FOOD ENERGY - HEALTH FOOD Floods to Droughts Summit to Sea Treetop to Bedrock Floods Droughts Hazard Mitigation Availability WATER WATER PREDICTION ENERGY Quality 9 HEALTH Success requires a fully integrated, multi-disciplinary approach across supporting agencies

10 WRF-HYDRO System VISION Develop and implement the next generation integrated physical earth system prediction capability at weather and longer time scales, to support hours-to-seasonal global prediction including the atmosphere, ocean, land, cryosphere and space. 10

11 Multi-Year Strategic Science and Services Plan Integrated Water Prediction and the FY Core Capability Centralized Water Forecasting National Water Model (NWM) operational May 2016 Water forecasts for 2.7 million stream reaches in U.S. 100 million people get a terrestrial water forecast for first time National Water Center (NWC) begins providing daily situational awareness and guidance to NWS field offices FY Key Enhancement Flash Flood and Urban Hydrology Enhance NWM with nested hyperresolution zoom capability and urban hydrologic processes Heightened focus on regions of interests (e.g. follow storms) Street level flood inundation forecasts for selected urban demonstration areas NWC increases guidance to NWS field offices to improve consistency and services for flash floods FY Major Integration Coastal Total Water Level Couple NWM with marine models to predict combined storm surge, tide, and riverine effects More complete picture of coastal storm impacts Water prediction information linked to geospatial risk and vulnerability New service delivery model implemented increased stakeholder engagement and integrated information NWC operations center opens and provides national decision support services and situational awareness FY Key Enhancement Dry Side: Drought and Post-Fire Couple NWM with groundwater and transport models to predict low flows, drought and fire impacts Add NWM processes that affect subsurface water movement and storage during dry conditions Add NWM ability to track constituents (e.g. sediment, contaminants, nutrients) through stream network New decision support services for water shortage situations and waterborne transport NWC operations center expands to include drought and post-fire decision support services FY Major Integration Water Quality Integrate enhanced NWM with key water quality data sets, models and tools to begin water quality prediction Incorporate water quality data from federal and State partners into NWM Link NWM output to NOAA ecological forecasting operations New decision support services for predicting water quality issues such as Harmful Algal Blooms New decision support services for emergencies such as chemical spils NWC operations center expands to include water quality decision support services 11