Negligible Climate Effect of the American Clean Energy and Security Act of 2009 (Waxman-Markey Climate Bill)

Transcription

1 Negligible Climate Effect of the American Clean Energy and Security Act of 2009 (Waxman-Markey Climate Bill) A PowerPoint Presentation by Paul C. Knappenberger SPPI Reprint Series! June 25, 2009

2 Greenhouse Gas Emissions Reduction Schedule 3% below 2005 levels by 2012 (total emissions ~6990 mmtco2) 20% below 2005 levels by 2020 (total emissions ~5917 mmtco2) 42% below 2005 levels by 2030 (total emissions ~4565 mmtco2) These are LARGE emissions reductions requirements to be met by the United States 83% below 2005 levels by 2050 (total emissions ~1961 mmtco2) Subsequent drafts of the bill and various assumptions about the bill s complimentary requirements can alter these numbers slightly, but their impact on the climate analysis is minimal. 2

3 Greenhouse Gas Emissions Reduction Schedule 3

4 IPCC SRES Emissions Scenarios The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has a suite of future emissions scenarios (covering emissions of greenhouse gas and aerosols) Scenario A1B is a mid-range scenario Scenario A1FI is a high-end scenario 4

5 IPCC SRES Emissions Scenarios (Waxman-Markey) IPCC Scenario A1B (mid-range) With and without Waxman-Markey required emissions reductions in the U.S. Emissions (mmtco2) OECD90 REF ASIA ALM Regional CO2 Emissions - A1B OECD90 (US_WM) Asia Year Africa/Latin America Industrialized Countries Industrialized Countries (U.S. Waxman-Markey) Former Soviet Union Countries Emissions (mmtco2) Global CO2 Emissions - A1B 70 Total Without Waxman-Markey 60 Total (WM) With Waxman-Markey Year 5

6 IPCC SRES Emissions Scenarios (Waxman-Markey) IPCC Scenario A1FI (high emissions) With and without Waxman-Markey required emissions reductions in the U.S. Regional CO2 Emissions - A1FI Global CO2 Emissions - A1FI Emissions (mmtco2) OECD90 REF ASIA ALM OECD90 (US_WM) Asia Africa/ Latin America Industrialized Countries (U.S. Waxman-Markey) Emmission (mmtco2) Total Total (WM) Without Waxman-Markey With Waxman-Markey Former Soviet Union Countries Year Year 6

7 IPCC SRES Emissions Scenarios (Waxman-Markey) IPCC A1B and A1FI Scenarios Total Global CO2 Emissions (including the effects of Waxman-Markey) Global CO2 Emissions Emissions (mmtco2) A1B A1B (WM) A1FI A1FI (WM) A1FI A1FI (U.S. Waxman-Markey) A1B A1B (U.S. Waxman-Markey) Year 7

8 IPCC SRES Emissions Scenarios (Waxman-Markey) We need to convert emissions projections to global temperature projections. To do so, we use a little MAGICC 8

9 MAGICC Model for the Assessment of Greenhouse-gas Induced Climate Change (MAGICC)! Developed at National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)! Developed primarily by Dr. Tom Wigley! Latest version developed under support of the EPA GCM Simulator! Simple gas-cycle model! Simple ice-melt model! Simple climate model Runs on you desktop computer Produces projections of large-scale global parameters (e.g. global average temperature) in seconds rather than in months (time it takes GCMs) A quick, easy, and cheap way of producing temperature projections that emulate those of full-version GCMs (without all of the small details) Used by the IPCC, USGCRP, EPA, and in the scientific literature Emissions projections are used as input to MAGICC MAGICC includes a set of tunable parameters 9

10 Impact of Waxman-Markey on Projected Global Temperatures Temperature savings assuming scenario A1B (mid-range emissions):! 0.04ºC (0.07ºF) by 2050! 0.11ºC (0.20ºF) by 2100 Temperature savings assuming scenario A1FI (high emissions):! 0.06ºC (0.07ºF) by 2050! 0.20ºC (0.36ºF) by 2100 These temperature savings are scientifically irrelevant and meaningless. A1FI A1B } 0.20ºC } 0.11ºC 10

11 Impact of Waxman-Markey on Projected Global Temperatures U.S. actions alone to reduce domestic greenhouse gas emissions no matter how large have no meaningful impact on the projected course of future global climate. 11

12 Impact of Waxman-Markey on Projected Global Temperatures What if the whole world adopted the Waxman-Markey emissions reduction schedule (assuming A1FI high emissions scenario)? Regional CO2 Emissions - A1FI Emissions (mmtco2) OECD90 REF ASIA ALM OECD90 (WM) REF (WM) ASIA (WM) ALM (WM) Year 12

13 Impact of Waxman-Markey on Projected Global Temperatures What if the whole world adopted the Waxman-Markey emissions reduction schedule (assuming A1FI high emissions scenario)? Temperature savings Baseline U.S. only U.S. and other Industrialized Nations U.S./Indust. Nations and former USSR U.S./Indust. Nations/former USSR and African and Latin America 0.20ºC 0.40ºC 0.60ºC 1.24ºC U.S./Indust. Nations/former USSR and African and Latin America and Asia 2.37ºC 13

14 Impact of Waxman-Markey on Projected Global Temperatures What if the whole world adopted the Waxman-Markey emissions reduction schedule (assuming A1FI high emissions scenario)? How likely is this going to be? 14

15 Impact of Waxman-Markey on Projected Global Temperatures The total increase in China s emissions since the year 2000 is 50 percent greater than the total increase from rest of the world combined. While the change in greenhouse gas emissions from the rest of the world lies near the low end of future emissions scenarios, the emissions from China exceed the projections from even the highest scenarios (e.g. A1FI). 15

16 Impact of Waxman-Markey on Projected Global Temperatures Historically there has been a very tight coupling between global population and global CO2 emissions. 16

17 Impact of Waxman-Markey on Projected Global Temperatures You just can t legislate (or regulate) away the strong relationship between global population and global CO2 emission not at least on generational timescales. U.N. Population Projection Global Waxman-Markey Emissions Reductions 17

18 Conclusions U.S. actions alone to reduce domestic greenhouse gas emissions no matter how large have no meaningful impact on the projected course of future global climate. To reduce projected climate change requires international actions, primarily from Asia (China and India). Large-scale greenhouse gas reductions are only going to be achieved through new, safe, and widely distributed energy generation technologies not through efficiency gains, conservation, and/or forced transition to existing technologies. 18

19 Further Details Further details of this analysis can be found in the following articles: Climate Impacts of Waxman-Markey (the IPCC-based arithmetic of no gain) Climate Impacts of Waxman-Markey (Part II) Global Sign-Up Who is Behind the Current Emissions Trends? 19

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