Israel and the Middle East, with Australian Reflections

Transcription

1 Water Security and Climate Change: Israel and the Middle East, with Australian Reflections 2009 Australia Israel Hawke Lecture Clive Lipchin, PhD Director of Research, Arava Institute t for Environmental Studies clivearava@gmail.com Australian Light Horse Charge at Beersheba on 31st October, 1917 Australian light horsemen riding Australian light horsemen riding waler horses. The soldiers are of the original contingent of the Australian Imperial Force and the photo was taken prior to their departure from Australia in November The soldier on the right is Trooper William Harry Rankin Woods, 1st Light Horse Regiment, who died of wounds on 15 May 1915, one of the first light horsemen to die during the Battle of Gallipoli. Credit: Sydney Mail 1

2 Australia Israel Comparisons Area (sq km) Population Poulation Density Australia 7,686, ,262, Israel 20, ,233, Population growth rate (%) GDP-real growth rate (%) GDP/capita (US$) GDP-composition by sector (%) Agriculture Industry Services Arable land (%) Total renewable water resources (cu km) , , Freshwater withdrawal (%) Domestic Industrial Agricultural Per capita water use (cu m/yr) 1, Source: CIA-The World Factbook The debate over climate change is essentially over 2

3 The Biggest Dry The grievous consequences of drought and global lwarming are more visible ibl and dangerous in Australia than in any other industrialized nation. Keith Schneider (2009), Circle of Blue Impacts of Climate Change 3

4 Hugo Ahlenius, UNEP/GRID Arendal Effects Hydrologic parameters Precipitation Evaporation Transpiration ato Runoff Recharge Soil moisture changes Reduced ground water recharge Water shortages or surpluses Dam failure due to floods Dam storage loss due to sedimentation Aquatic systems Streamflows Erosion and sedimentation Water levels in surface water bodies Water levels in aquifers Water fluxes in the subsurface Droughts or floods Dam failure due to floods Dam storage loss due to sedimentation Water quality Water temperature Water salinity Pollutant concentrations Fauna and flora Changes in chemical quality Changes in biological quality Changes in thermal quality 4

5 agriculture in 2080 due to climate change Hugo Ahlenius, UNEP/GRID Arendal) The Biggest Dry A lone rice paddy stands flooded with water pumped from the ground near Deniliquin, New South Wales. In the face of water shortages, Australia s rice industry has crashed, leaving farmers to convert fromrice rice to other droughtresistant crops The Murray Darling Basin is experiencing a 12 year drought, the worst since the Federation Drought that ended in In 2007 the World Wildlife Fund named the Murray Darling one of the world s top ten rivers at risk. Source: Keith Schneider Photograph by J. Carl Ganter Map by Terrell Robbins for Circle of Blue Circle of Blue Reports 5

6 SOURCES OF WATER 3 Major Sources: Jordan River System / Kinneret Mountain t i Aquifer Coastal Aquifer The Jordan River and Dead Sea Basin Watershed 6

7 Pre 1967 Unilateral development of the Jordan River Watershed by Israel, Jordan, Lebanon, Syria Post 1967 Development of West Bank and Gaza aquifers by Israel & PA 7

8 Chronic Water Scarcity in the ME In accordance with physical water supply, availability is: Israel => 300 m 3 /cap/yr Jordan => 230 m3/cap/yr Palestinians => 95 m3/cap/yr Lebanon => 1,300 m3/cap/yr For Reference: <1000 m 3 /cap/yr - Water Poor <500 m 3 /cap/yr - Chronic Water Scarcity U.S. => 9,710 m 3 /cap/yr Water Security Water Supply and Demand in the Middle East (Israel, PA, Jordan) Data Source: Tahal mcm/year Supply Demand Year 8

9 Water levels in Sea of Galilee Water level a Level) l (Meter Below Sea Years Water level of the mountain aquifer Source: Israel Ministry of Environmental Protection 9

10 Water Demand including peace treaty Sector Total Fresh Saline Marginal Irrigation 1, Industrial Urban Total 1,954 1, Palestinian Authority Jordan Grand total 2,054 1,

11 The following climate scenarios are projected for Israel by the year 2100 Climate changes: Mean temperature increase of 1.6 to1.8 C Reduction in precipitation by ( 8)% to ( 4)% Increase in evapotranspiration by 10% Delayed winter rains Increased rain intensity and shortened rainy season Greater seasonal temperature variability Increased frequency and severity of extreme climate events (flooding, runoff, soil erosion) Greater spatial and temporal climatic uncertainty. Related environmental changes: Sea level rise of 12 88cm 560ppmv of atmospheric CO2 concentration by the year Source: Pe er, G. and Safriel, U.N. (October 2000) Climate Change Israel National Report under The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change: Impact, Vulnerability and Adaptation 11

12 Source: Israel Union for Environmental Defense (July 2007) The Forecast is in Our Hands: Professional Report on Climate Change Impacts in Israel Source: Israel Union for Environmental Defense (July 2007) The Forecast is in Our Hands: Professional Report on Climate Change Impacts in Israel 12

13 Rainfall in the Arava Valley/Wadi Araba Total Rainfall Amount (mm) mm 30 Israel Total Rainfall Amounts in Yotava (mm) values Total Rainfall Amount (mm) years Jordan Total Rainfall Amounts (mm) Source: Yotam Kay and Sawsan Batarseh, AIES, 2007 Bridge destruction by floods 13

14 Options and Considerations New water supplies Untapped natural reserves Technological alternatives Desalination Demand management and conservation Waste water reuse Sustainable agriculture Cooperation/conflict with the neighbors 14

15 MAJOR OUT-OF-STREAM USES OF WATER IN ISRAEL Freshwater 57% Agriculture 32% Domestic 8% Industry Total 62% Agriculture 29% Domestic 7% Industry Seawater desalination capacity in cbm/day in the Mediterranean basin 15

16 Year MCM/ Year Wastewater reuse schemes Industry Domestic Fresh Water Agriculture + seasonal storage Haifa scheme On-Site Treatment Local Treatment Dual water uses Treatment Center Ground water storage Soil Aquifer Treatment Tel Aviv scheme 16

17 Growth in Sewage Recycling from Tel Aviv Region for Desert Agriculture Crops output per m 3 of water Greenhous se crops for expo ort US$/m Fruits Vegetables 1996 Technology

18 Drip Irrigation In Action

19 Sustainable Agriculture Neem Tree The citrus tree, popular in Israeli agriculture, demands 60 to 65 cubic meters of water per year. The pitaya, a sweet cactus fruit of deep purple or brilliant pink, native to Central America, only requires half a cubic meter all year. "There are cats that drink more than that." Pitaya fruit Floodwater Reservoir Floodwater can be used for 2 purposes: 1. Aquifer recharge 2. Impound floodwaters

20 Water Resources (MCM) Desalinated Total Natural Reclaimed Water demand and supply Source and use Desalinized Hm 3 /year Natural Domestic & industrial use 500 Recycled

21 Existing Agreements The Middle East a politically volatile region Israel/Egypt tpeace Treaty but cold peace 1994 Jordan/Israel Peace Treaty including agreement over the sharing of common water resources Interim agreements with PA and Israel but water sharing left to final status No Peace Treaty or water agreements with Lebanon and Syria Security Implications of Climate Change Fewer Water Resources Available for Existing Agreements Israel/Jordan more difficult to comply with Jordan River water sharing arrangement 50 mcm/pa Jordan/Israel more difficult to comply with Yarmouk River water sharing arrangements 27 mcm/pa Israel and Jordan to develop additional 50 mcm/pa never fulfilled Israel/PA future needs recognized mcm/pa. In final agreement PA demands will be higher. 21

22 Security Implications of Climate Change Fewer Water Resources Available for Future Agreements Israel/Lebanon sharing of the Jordan River tributaries Israel/Syria sharing of the Jordan and sources of the Sea of Galilee Security Implications of Climate Change Less rainfall impacts the economy PA economy heavily dependent on rain fed agriculture for income and employment Jordan Valley bread basket of Jordanian food production and rural support backbone of Kingdom s political stability Israeli agricultural llobby powerful across political divide 22

23 Security Implications of Climate Change Sea Level Rise will impact the Israel PA coastal aquifer Further increasesalinitysalinity of drinking water for Gaza Further contaminate Israel s coastal aquifer Socioeconomic Impacts Severe water shortages Agricultural losses Migration in search of resources Refugees from inundated lands Economic crisis Less developed countries will suffer the most, as they will not be able to create facilities that can combat climate change and help with their water resources 23

24 Political Ramifications Increased tension between countries sharing water resources Difficulties for governments to provide for their country s needs > internal instability, likelihood of failed states Exacerbated marginal living conditions foster extremist tand radical ideologies i and conflicts according to US General Anthony Zinni IISD report conclusion Climate change a threat multiplier for human security The Dead Sea is Unique..Vespasian wanted to investigate the qualities of the Dead Sea and ordered some non swimmer slaves to be thrown into deep water, their hands tied behind their backs, and observed that they all came to the surface as if blown upward by a strong wind (J. Flavius, 70 A.D.) 24

25 The Shrinking Dead Sea Computer projection 390 m 420 m 500 m ~1020 km 2 ~ 635 km 2 ~ 520 km 2 25

26 Ein Fescha, on the North Western Shore of the Dead Sea near the City of Jericho Shoreline today Shoreline in 1984 The Southern End, a potassium paradise Dead Sea Works: 3.5 and 2 Million ton Potassium a year in the Israeli and Jordanian sides 26

27 Suggested Routes The Red Sea Dead Sea Conduit Inflow of ~ 2 BCM from the Red Sea, Get ~ 850 MCM fresh water from desalination (majority to Jordan and minority to PA and Israel. Send the outcome brine to the Dead Sea and stabilize its water level 27

28 Major Conduit Elements Possible Complications Mixing Dead Sea water with Red Sea water May lead to gypsum precipitation and a possible damage to the potassium production. Possible damage to the Ecological system of the Red Sea. Possible leaking of sea water into the fresh water Arava aquifer (mainly due to an earthquake). Possible damage to the environment of the region. High cost of the project. 28

29 Letter of Agreement Signed and Provided to the World Bank May 9, 2005 The Arava Institute for Environmental Studies Mission Statement Our mission is to create a world class environmental teaching and research institute at Kibbutz Ketura, which will: Deliver teaching at the highest quality and level. Play a leading role in research, conservation, environmental protection and sustainable development. Prepare future Arab and Jewish leaders to cooperatively solve the region s environmental challenges. Teach future leaders from all over the world that nature knows no borders. 29