Regional Infrastructure Impact for Central Asia

Transcription

1 Regional Infrastructure Impact for Central Asia A proposal to: Potential Donor Agencies Submitted by: Purdue University Sandia National Laboratories December 21, 2006 Contacts Dr. Zarjon Baha, , bahaz@purdue.edu Dr F.T. Sparrow, , fts@purdue.edu Dr. Brian H. Bowen, , bhbowen@purdue.edu Mr. Jeffrey Danneels, , jjdanne@sandia.gov Dr. Dennis Engi, , dengi@sandia.gov

2 Regional Infrastructure Impact for Central Asia 2 Table of Contents Executive Summary... 3 Introduction... 5 Background... 7 Background on Proposed Teams... 8 Project Strategy Phase I (6 months duration) Phase II (12 months duration) Phase III (24 months duration) Phase III Transportation Efforts Deliverables Phase I Phase II Phase III Budget Summary by Phase Summary References Appendix A Appendix B Appendix C Appendix D Table and Figures Table 1. Electricity Supplies to Central Asia and Other Regions, Figure 1. Optimal International Transmission in West Africa... 9 Figure 2. New Transmission Lines Needed For Exports (REEPS report 2004, [2]) Figure 3. Regional Infrastructure and Growth in Global Energy Demand Figure 4. Afghanistan s Major Roads... 17

3 Regional Infrastructure Impact for Central Asia 3 Executive Summary A comprehensive modeling effort is proposed that engages, in a collaborative environment, multiple stakeholders to plan, allocate, and manage critical infrastructure resources for Afghanistan. The project will include both national and transboundary energy, transportation, and water resources. This proposal is laid out in three phases with energy (electricity, natural gas, renewables) and water (energy, agriculture, drinking, sanitation, etc.) included in all three, and transportation starting in the third and final phase. Two unifying themes for this effort are: promoting working partnerships and the interdependent nature of the three critical infrastructures. These interdependencies are two-fold; the interdependencies of the physical infrastructures and the interdependencies of the public policies that influence critical infrastructures. The objectives of providing quantitative analyses of the critical infrastructure interdependencies, developing planning capacity, and the transparent transferring of modeling capability will be important elements throughout all three phases of this project. Phase I (6 months duration) will identify and start to build the required joint United States/Central Asia teams to initiate collection of essential data and to provide training. Phase II (12 months duration) will further train participants, collect detailed data on specific sites, help coordinate and support the activities of the regional Working Groups (planning and technical), begin the process of developing a Regional Infrastructure Planning Institute (RIPI), propose immediate infrastructure improvements, and start the long-term planning and modeling processes. Phase III (24 months duration) will continue the collaborative building of infrastructure models at national and transnational scales, plan for future infrastructure improvements, equip regional partners with improved detailed quantitative policy analysis skills, and establish the RIPI. Human capacity development, promoting the analysis and integration of regional infrastructures, and facilitating cooperative regional planning will be the hallmark of this three-phase proposal. Purdue University (Purdue) and Sandia National Laboratories (Sandia) bring a wealth of international expertise together in this proposal. These two institutions have extensive experience working on critical infrastructures (energy, water, and transportation) and have developed unique modeling, planning, and resource-allocation capabilities. Both teams will work collaboratively with counterparts in the Central Asia Regional Economic Cooperation community member states (Afghanistan, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, and Kyrgyzstan, CAREC Appendix C) to ensure the buy-in, validity, and long-term implementation of the model development effort. Purdue will lead the energy and transportation infrastructure programs. Sandia will provide the leadership for the systems dynamics integrated water, agriculture, and energy modeling program. These two modeling efforts will complement and interact with each other while working at different scales. Some of the major issues to be tackled in this collaborative partnership include identifying the optimal investments (least cost) in specific new electricity power lines, undertaking water trade-off and allocation studies to determine how water resources could/should be used, making provision for rural electricity supplies, developing new water resources, estimating wheeling/shipping costs of energy across national boundaries,

4 Regional Infrastructure Impact for Central Asia 4 modeling transboundary water strategies, and planning strategic infrastructure investments for the long-term stability of the region. In Phase I, both Purdue and Sandia (the combined U.S. teams) will identify regional, NGO, and U.S. government agency counterparts to initiate the upgrading of national and regional infrastructure modeling and planning capabilities. The teams will need extensive support from the regional government ministries to identify the appropriate stakeholders to participate in the training, planning, and modeling efforts. Training will be provided on energy and water infrastructure modeling and planning in national/regional CAREC centers for representatives of government, industry, and academia. The program will include supporting initiatives for promoting greater regional integration and the construction of large and small-scale, urban and rural infrastructure projects. The second phase is a one-year collaborative effort to build country and international-scale models to allow trade-off studies and what-if analyses of various critical infrastructure development strategies. Available data including previous studies, such as the United States Geological Survey report on Water Resources in the Kabul Basin [17] and the Regional Electricity Export Potential Study, will provide excellent input to the model development. Additional data needs will be identified and plans developed to obtain the necessary information. Additional training will be provided and hands-on experience will be gained by all partners engaged in the modeling process. Phase III will be a two-year effort to institutionalize and make sustainable the infrastructure planning/modeling effort. The models will be further refined to allow detailed planning and implementation of infrastructure improvements. As Afghanistan and neighboring states continues to grow and prosper, the models will become even more important to study potential infrastructure improvements and their associated impacts before determining a course of action. The models allow a diverse set of resource users to collaboratively determine a sustainable course of action. In this phase it is expected that detailed training will be completed, long-term data collection schemes established, and the RIPI will be fully operational and ready to take ownership of the models. It is anticipated that much of the planning will be moving into implementation during this phase. Reliable and secure infrastructures for energy, water, and transportation are vital for the development of any community. It is absolutely essential that the Central Asian community makes long-lasting effective plans in these areas of infrastructure for the well being of the 83 million people of the CAREC region. Over 50 years ago the development of the iron and steel infrastructure in post-world War II Europe marked the beginnings of today s economically strengthened European Union. Infrastructure plans and highly skilled advisors for the Governments of the region are now needed for its reconstruction and positive long-term growth.

5 Regional Infrastructure Impact for Central Asia 5 Introduction Emerging from more than twenty years of conflict, capped in recent years by a severe nationwide drought, Afghanistan faces a complex and interrelated set of political, administrative, economic, environmental, and social challenges. Afghanistan s 27 million inhabitants remain among the poorest in the world. The government of Afghanistan is seeking to provide stability, economic prosperity, and future opportunity for its citizens. The continuation of recent positive developments is threatened by serious risks political, security, macroeconomic, institutional, climatic, and drug-related. [1] Developing and maintaining stable economic, social, and ecological systems in Afghanistan is critical for maintaining stability and promoting democratic principles in the entire region. Providing high-level policy decision-support tools and processes and customized training for understanding, planning, and managing interdependent infrastructures are important steps in the stabilization and long-term decision-making process. Constructing reliable, high-quality infrastructures will greatly strengthen the foundations for enhancing the quality of life in Afghanistan. The proposed energy infrastructures effort will complement and enhance the World Bank s groundwork project summarized in its Regional Electricity Export Potential Study (REEPS) ; participants will work hand-in-hand with the Afghan Renewable Energy Master Plan [18], USAID and other donor agency programs to systematically implement and coordinate infrastructure improvements. To successfully build new energy infrastructure and to support economic development, a thorough understanding of the water resources within Afghanistan is badly needed. Modeling existing water resources and their present allocation, performing trade-off studies before implementing changes, and developing short- and long-term plans are essential to avoid conflict and achieve buy-in as new allocation schemes are implemented. The outline for this proposed project is as follows: o Phase I (6 months): Near Term Activity and Value Build U.S./Afghan/Regional teams Short duration training Data gathering Renewable Energy (RE) Center to support near-term rural electrification (focus on wind/solar with ties to eventual grid) Initial hydrological data compilation Assessment of impacts on quality of life Infrastructure Policy Survey Initial model development with available data o Phase II (12 months): Development of and Training on Analytical Tools Mid-to-long duration training Mid-to-long term planning

6 Regional Infrastructure Impact for Central Asia 6 Transboundary considerations/inclusion Data development Development of the RIPI and RE Center Interactions between Purdue, Sandia, and RIPI modeling efforts Mid-term rural electrification and critical new transmission lines Effect of new hydropower plants, integrated water management and interdependence on energy trading Indicators for quality of life improvements o Phase III (24 months): Ensuring Sustainability Implementation Long-term planning and training RIPI and RE Center support and growth Continued Purdue, Sandia, and RIPI collaboration Human capacity development Afghan and Central Asian capabilities to construct and exercise the models Long term, sustainable quality-of-life improvement in Afghanistan and the region Transportation analysis Modeling of quality of life improvements

7 Regional Infrastructure Impact for Central Asia 7 Background The infrastructures in Afghanistan are either broken down or simply do not exist. A few of the major cities receive unreliable and intermittent electrical power. Plans are under way to greatly improve the electrical infrastructure within the major cities, but this will still leave 80% or more of the rural population without electricity. The agriculture sector is expanding for legitimate crops, but it is still dominated by illicit products. According to the Project Information Document for the Emergency Irrigation Rehabilitation project, lack of assured and timely water through the existing irrigation system appears to be one of the most important constraints to food production, agricultural growth, and rural development. [19] Access to villages, markets, and key natural resources is greatly hindered by the lack of a high-quality, reliable transportation system. Clearly, there is a need for greater employment and for a growing economy so that citizens can afford to pay for water and other municipal services. [1] The electricity supplies to Afghanistan s 27 million people are extremely low, with much of the population having little or no electricity. The level of supply in Afghanistan is similar to other war-ravaged countries like Sierra Leone, with only 34 and 40 kwh per capita to each of these countries, respectively (Table 1). In contrast, other countries of Central Asia, such as Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan, have substantially greater supplies, with levels of 1,754 and 3,450 kwh per capita, respectively. [2] Improved transmission, integration, and cooperation in generation planning can significantly improve supplies to homes in Afghanistan and Central Asia. There is great need for a national energy transmission and distribution infrastructure that benefits from improved flexible international energy trading contracts and comprehensive rural electrification facilities. Table 1. Electricity Supplies to Central Asia and Other Regions, 2003 Country Population (Millions) kwh per capita Afghanistan Kazakhstan 15 3,450 Turkmenistan 5 1,754 Uzbekistan 25 1,872 Tajikistan 6 2,367 Kyrgyzstan 5 2,980 Germany 82 6,916 Nigeria Sierra Leone 5 40 U.S.A ,047 Source: World Development Indicators, 2003, The World Bank, [4, 5] Afghanistan has more than adequate water resources and possesses four major river systems: the Amu Darya, Hilmand, Harirud, and the Kabul. It is presently estimated that Afghanistan uses only about 30% of the total estimated water resources (both surface and ground water) available in the country. [19] A great need exists for more potable water supplies and sanitation services in Afghanistan. Kabul has the highest percentage of piped water in the country; it serves an estimated 35% of the population. About 75% of the rural population does not have

8 Regional Infrastructure Impact for Central Asia 8 access to a safe water supply or to sanitation. Irrigation for agriculture makes up 93% of the present water use. [1] The political conflicts and drought of recent years have had a devastating impact on the horticulture industry. Precise figures are not available, but observation and limited surveys suggest that approximately 50% of the orchards have been destroyed. [16] A coordinated effort will be necessary. Attempting to develop the energy, agriculture, and water infrastructures independently is likely to lead to greatly over-allocated water resources, conflict, and economic loss. Afghanistan depends on its roads for internal and external transport and commerce. The total length of its road network is about 21,000 km, but only 13% of roads are paved. This is much lower than the average of 30% for developing countries. Of the unpaved roads, it is estimated that 10% are gravel; the remainder are constructed of earth only. The highest road density is concentrated around Kabul. A highway connecting the principal cities of Herat, Kandahar, Ghazni, and Kabul forms the primary road system. In general, the highway system requires significant reconstruction, and regional roads are in a state of disrepair. Some inter-city road trips that would have taken a few hours only twenty five years ago, now take days. There are no data available to assess the level of service, but it is estimated to be very low. Public transportation in Afghanistan depends on road-based transport modes, consisting mainly of small buses. Background on Proposed Teams Purdue has a 10-year history of promoting transnational (rather than national) planning in both Southern and West Africa for the operation and expansion of electricity grids and power pools by creating and then training international partners in the use of large-scale system models. The Purdue team members also have substantial road planning experience in India and other nations of Asia. The Purdue Energy Center researchers can help develop plans for Afghanistan s and Central Asia s electricity infrastructure. The Energy Center member groups have extensive experience working with electric utilities and regulatory commissions in the U.S. Midwest region (MISO) as well with the members of the Southern African Power Pool (SAPP) and the West African Power Pool (WAPP). The Energy Center staff have conducted electricity planning workshops three to five days duration and longer in Bangladesh, Ghana, Indiana, Mali, South Africa, Togo, and the United Kingdom. [7-12] The forecasting and modeling techniques developed are outlined on the following Purdue websites: The Purdue modeling team has extensively worked with the planners of the twelve countries that are members of SAPP on their capacity expansion plans to utilize the region s hydroelectric power to replace coal-fired thermal generation (1996 to 2000). Similar modeling

9 Regional Infrastructure Impact for Central Asia 9 (with a greater emphasis placed on regional training of technical planners) was provided to the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) in establishing the West African Power Pool in In the case of the WAPP, the initial need was to prioritize the economic impact and benefits of proposed international transmission lines among the fourteen member country states of the pool (Figure 1). Members of the Purdue community have also been working with institutions of higher education in Kabul, and relationships have developed with engineering faculty in Kabul that will help with the success of this proposal. [13,14] Figure 1. Optimal International Transmission in West Africa WAPP moving into Operational phase (2000) WAPP Major new lines for increased trading Source: [12] Sandia is a world leader in the application of systems dynamics (SD) modeling (See Appendix D for an explanation of SD modeling) to the analysis of critical infrastructures, including their myriad interdependencies. For example, Sandia built a model of the Middle Rio Grande (MRG) basin including hydrology, ecology, economics and demographics that now plays an important role in regional water planning. Sandia has applied this modeling framework not only in the MRG but also to the upper Rio Grande, the Rainy River basin between the United States and Canada, and the lower Rio Grande between the United States and Mexico. Sandia is presently constructing a water/energy/food SD model for Iraq to address the structural and quantitative interdependencies and interactions among the water, energy, and food systems in that country. The model will show how changes in the management of one of those resources impact the others and how to evaluate potential strategies for managing each of the systems separately and collectively to support long-term social, economic, and political stability. Training and human capacity development programs have been involved in all of Sandia s water modeling efforts. SD modeling is an important component of the Water Initiative at Sandia. SD modeling is also the core tool used in the National Infrastructure Simulation and Analysis Center (NISAC), a joint program between Sandia and Los Alamos national laboratories for the U.S. Department

10 Regional Infrastructure Impact for Central Asia 10 of Homeland Security. Highly detailed infrastructure models have been developed in the NISAC program to understand infrastructure vulnerabilities and interdependencies. To find information on Sandia s Water Initiative and to review a report on the MRG Water Model, go to: For information on NISAC, go to: Sandia has been engaged for many years in rural electrification. Sandia s International Clean Energy and Sustainable Engineering Office (ICESEO) and its team members have been supporting, implementing, and managing USAID clean and renewable energy programs and activities for rural off-grid applications for the past 15 years with co-sponsorship from the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE). For information on the rural electrification program in Mexico, go to: Sandia has been developing infrastructure management systems with international partners since the early 1990s. The Global Approaches to Infrastructure Assurance (GAIA) project is a unique and highly effective approach to analyzing critical infrastructures. GAIA was developed by Sandia National Laboratories as part of an ongoing effort to improve our understanding of infrastructures throughout the world in order to promote economic and political stability and growth. The GAIA effort is based on the premise that complex infrastructure systems, such as those supplying water, agricultural commodities, and energy, constitute the foundation of economic, social, and political systems. Understanding the global dynamics of these integrated systems, including their environmental impacts, is becoming increasingly important for making intelligent management decisions as we move toward an increasingly integrated world economy. Initial projects have shown the GAIA approach to be effective in addressing complex infrastructure issues in Africa, the Caribbean, Central America, Central Europe, Asia, and South America, as well as the United States. See the following URL for more information:

11 Regional Infrastructure Impact for Central Asia 11 Project Strategy Phase I (6 months duration) In Phase I, both Purdue and Sandia (the combined U.S. teams) will identify Afghan, NGO, and U.S. government agency counterparts to initiate the upgrading of national and regional infrastructure modeling and planning capabilities. All activities will be jointly staffed by both Purdue and Sandia to ensure effective data sharing. The team will need extensive support from the Afghan Ministries to identify the appropriate stakeholders to participate in the training, planning, and modeling efforts. Training will be provided on energy and water infrastructure modeling and planning in Kabul and other Central Asia Regional Economic Cooperation (CAREC) centers, both national and regional, for representatives of government, industry, and academia. The program will include supporting initiatives for promoting greater regional integration and construction of large- and small-scale urban and rural infrastructure projects. The field office for CAREC is in Almaty, Kazakhstan, and it is expected that during Phase I a meeting will need to take place at this center. During Phase I the team will identify, support, and train a team to construct an integrated national level (country-wide) energy, agriculture, and water resources model. Training will be provided on the systems dynamics platform that will be used as the backbone of the model. A computer system will be established in Kabul to allow the teams to conduct joint modeling remotely. The country-wide model will be built in a collaborative environment, so it is imperative that the proper stakeholders on the Afghan side are identified and included. Much of the data to begin this modeling effort already exists, and those pieces missing will be identified and pursued, either through recovery of historical data or by direct measurement. It will be important to include all projects underway or proposed, such as the Asian Development Bank s project for Integrated Water Resources in Western Afghanistan. [20] Decision-support models, built mostly in a SD modeling environment, integrate rigorous, mathematical, multi-system models with user-friendly interfaces. Virtual slider bars, switches and buttons in the interface allow users to experiment with different resource allocation scenarios and view the resulting consequences that can be projected decades into the future. Model runs generally take less than a minute, allowing users to experiment with many alternative policy/management approaches and see results in real time. The models allow many different policy/management scenarios to be compared, and are therefore a powerful tool for educating diverse users on the interconnections and tradeoffs associated with different policy/management strategies. During Phase I the team will demonstrate the concept of training nationals in the development and use of quantitative infrastructure tools by constructing such a planning model for the electricity sector. The construction of the model will be conducted jointly. This joint effort will provide an introduction to the modeling, as well as serve to illustrate the magnitude of the gains possible through regional rationalization. Gains result from both the operation and construction of a regional electric grid, rather than each country independently planning its own grid operation and expansion. Experience has shown that these benefits extend beyond cost reductions and include dramatic increases in system reliability caused by the

12 Regional Infrastructure Impact for Central Asia 12 interconnections. They have served as a model for further expansion of trading relationships between countries. Direct interaction with the renewable energy study will facilitate an understanding of available renewable energy options. The team will train local Afghans and help them develop a Renewable Energy Center in Kabul to assist in rural energy improvements. The most important capital investments for the promotion of improved regional electricity trading are the strengthening of existing transmission lines and the construction of new major international transmission lines. The north-south transmission line in Kazahkstan and the proposed lines linking Afghanistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan are strategically important. Figure 2 illustrates these developments, which are recorded in the 2004 World Bank report Regional Electricity Export Potential Study. [2] The electricity modeling will build on this study and on plans for Afghanistan s Northern Transmission System (NTS) to provide the quantitative benefits to be derived from these projects. [6] Figure 2. New Transmission Lines Needed For Exports (REEPS report 2004, [2]) The NTS for Afghanistan is a power grid designed for the supply of electricity to grid- customers located in the provinces of Faryab, Jawzjan, Sar-e-Pul, Balkh, Samangan, connected Kunduz, Takhar, Baghlan, Parwan, Kabul, Laghman, Nangahar, Ghazni, Logar, Paktya and Khost. [6] It will meet the domestic electricity needs of Afghanistan from both domestic and imported sources of electricity. It will also be a vast encouragement and incentive for power transit through Afghanistan from the Central Asian Republics to the coast and other countries through the establishment of an independent and self sustained entity. In this region, there is

13 Regional Infrastructure Impact for Central Asia 13 great potential for such an entity to prove itself to be a successful mechanism for the import and trade of power. The objectives of the electricity supply strategy for Afghanistan are as follows: To promote greater economic efficiency within the energy sector of Afghanistan. To apply principles of full-cost recovery and international best practice in new generation, transmission, and distribution of electricity. To increase power supply and access to electricity from domestic and imported sources. To foster and create independent, creditworthy companies operating on commercial principles consistent with international best practices. To provide for future public/private partnerships for managing, developing, and investing in Afghanistan s energy sector. To commence operation of the Northern Transmission System (NTS) by October The data describing the existing generation and transmission capabilities within Afghanistan and its neighboring trading partners will need to be compiled during this first phase for input into the electricity trade model. Initial generation capacities within Afghanistan are listed in Appendix A, Tables A-1 through A-3. The future proposed generation plans for Afghanistan, and the capabilities of existing and proposed transmission lines nationally and internationally in the region, are key factors that will determine the mix of power generation within the country and the extent of dependency on energy imports and the extent to which energy can be exported. Renewable energy options will be considered for remote areas, but will be designed to work cooperatively with the national grid at a future date. The team will make multiple visits to the region for collection of project data, identification of project partners, and preparation of regional meetings. Plans will be made for the first regional Working Group meeting of energy planners and technical experts from Afghanistan and its five neighboring CAREC states. The host for the first Working Group meeting (of planners and technical experts) is expected to be the Government of Afghanistan. Future Working Group meetings and training sessions are expected to take place in CAREC capitals once the energy trading and collaborative infrastructure planning activity has been further considered by the Afghan and neighboring CAREC member governments. Phase II (12 months duration) The second phase is a one-year collaborative effort to build both country and internationaltrade-off studies and what-if analyses of various critical scale models that will enable infrastructure development strategies. Available data, including previous studies [21-23] such as the United States Geological Survey report on Water Resources in the Kabul Basin [17] and the Regional Electricity Export Potential Study, will provide excellent input to the model development. Additional data needs will be identified and plans developed to obtain the necessary information. Additional training will be provided, and hands-on experience will be gained by all partners engaged in the modeling process. Renewable energy options, with a focus on solar energy, will be considered for remote areas. The team will emphasize the need for regional, not merely national, planning of infrastructures. The combination of Afghanistan s position surrounded as it is by countries with relatively

14 Regional Infrastructure Impact for Central Asia 14 better developed infrastructures and Afghanistan s unique access to rebuilding funds, can allow, with effective quantitative planning, these funds to be used to create an integrated regional infrastructure development strategy with Afghanistan as one of several potential major hubs for interconnection of regional systems. In addition, using the data collected by the representatives themselves, a first regional electricity grid development plan will be constructed, which can be used as a starting point for justifying the establishment of a transnational power pool dispatch center and the prioritizing of additions and upgrades to the region s transmission and generation systems. The energy project will help the short- and long-term generation planning for Afghanistan while considering the impact of improved electricity trading and the construction of new generation in the Central Asia region. The World Bank's REEPS report indicates over 14,000 MW of new generation capacity being built in the region. This is expected to have enormous consequences on regional electricity trading as well as on the capacity expansion plans for Afghanistan. The new thermal and hydropower generation capacity at Sangtuda, Rogun, Kambarata, Bishkek, and Talimadrjan will be included in the Central Asia electricity trade model. The systems dynamics (SD) computer simulation models will be used to analyze the current situation of the water, energy, and agriculture infrastructures in Afghanistan. This effort will supply the decision support framework necessary to make sustainable, rational, short- and long-term decisions. It is crucially important that current and future stakeholders participate to understand the impacts that their decisions will have on interdependent infrastructures. The three infrastructures agriculture, water, and energy were chosen because of their complex interdependencies (e.g., agriculture is the largest consumer of water and energy production requires large water withdrawals). It will take significant water resources to increase the available electricity, so understanding the impacts before implementing new energy projects will help avoid conflict. As the integrated infrastructure SD modeling makes progress, allocation decisions will be communicated to the energy project. These decisions will impact the water resources available for energy production and will help determine the sustainable energy mix for Afghanistan. In Phase II the team will jointly focus on the establishment of the RIPI and the RE Center. The mission of RIPI will be to understand the impacts of infrastructure management policies on the quality of life of the citizens of Afghanistan. Categories of policies to be explored include: Regulations Fiscal Incentives Information, Education, and Outreach Technology Development and Deployment Intra/Inter Government Relations Enforcement. Clearl y there are numerous portfolios of policies that can be defined within the context of these categories. The challenge will be to determine the portfolios that offer the greatest benefit to

15 Regional Infrastructure Impact for Central Asia 15 the quality of life of the citizenry of Afghanistan. There are a variety of ways to measure the impact of infrastructure management policies on quality of life, such as the following: Health and Economic Well-Being Environmental Quality Availability of Services. The RIPI could become affiliated with Kabul University and provide critical policy-related information to the Afghan Cabinet Ministers as well as to the Wolesi Jirga and the Meshrano Jirga. Further, the RIPI will serve as an educational organization and will be key to capacity building for Afghanistan in the context of managing critical infrastructures throughout the country. The RE Center will be established to provide technical assistance, training, and demonstrations to various organizations with off-grid rural energy and engineering needs. The technical assistance will be based on the appropriate and sustainable use of technologies for various applications in conjunction with economic, cultural, social, governance, and environmental matters. Local Afghans will be trained to operate the RE Center during Phase II. Phase III (24 months duration) Phase III will be a two-year effort to institutionalize and make sustainable the infrastructure planning/modeling effort. The models will be further refined to allow detailed planning and implementation of infrastructure improvements. As Afghanistan continues to grow and prosper, the models will become even more important for studying potential infrastructure improvements and their associated impacts before determining a course of action. The models allow a diverse set of resource users to collaboratively determine a sustainable course of action. In this phase it is expected that detailed training will be completed, long-term data collection schemes established, and the RIPI will be fully operational and ready to take ownership of the models. It is anticipated that much of the planning will be moving into implementation during this phase. Plans for this phase include several regional visits to support the energy (electricity) infrastructure working groups (Planning Working Group and Technical Working Group) with two in-depth technical training sessions at Purdue. These two training sessions in the United States will be for a select number (seven or fewer) of top energy level planning advisors. The project will provide for 20 regional energy representatives, with three from each of Afghanistan s five neighboring CAREC countries and five from Afghanistan to participate as core members of the two regional infrastructure Working Groups (see Appendix 3). These core Working Group members will be high level technical, economic, and governmental decision makers. The growth in global energy demand with the rapidly expanding markets in India and China will place increased importance on the energy infrastructure of Afghanistan and Central Asia. As shown in Figure 3, the energy resources of Kazakhstan currently have no access to the Indian Ocean. Thus the role of Afghanistan as a potential partner for transmitting electricity and piping natural gas to the coast will be a major regional policy issue in coming years. This

16 Regional Infrastructure Impact for Central Asia 16 proposal lays all the groundwork for assessing the impact of such future energy policy scenarios. This will be one of the potential policy issues to be considered in Phase III of this project with Afghanistan and its neighboring energy trading partners. Figure 3. Regional Infrastructure and Growth in Global Energy Demand Source: [15] The SD modeling effort will continue to refine the collaboratively constructed models to include more and more local detail. The models will also expand into transboundary resources to assist Afghanistan in regional water resource allocation and negotiation. Organizations such as the Basin Water Organization Amudarya will need to be engaged in the process. Developing long-term water compacts with its transboundary partners will ensure that sustainable water resources are available to Afghanistan. As energy infrastructure is planned and constructed, the models will be refined to reflect the new allocation schemes. Agriculture studies will be undertaken to find ways to conserve water resources while growing economically viable crops. Several Afghans will be identified for long-term training in SD at Sandia. Phase III Transportation Efforts The reconstruction of the transportation infrastructure within Afghanistan will be a significant undertaking and will ultimately cost billions of dollars. Basic infrastructure such as roads, bridges, irrigation systems, canals, telecommunications, electricity, and markets have been destroyed or reoriented toward the war effort. The level of reconstruction assistance will be determined by the country's balance of payments and budgetary financial need and domestic absorptive capacity. Afghanistan's major roads are shown in Figure 4.

17 Regional Infrastructure Impact for Central Asia 17 Figure 4. Afghanistan s Major Roads Projects within the transport sector will be organized within the framework of an integrated transportation development plan that covers both domestic and regional perspectives based on a multi-modal transport system. Road and public transportation, civil aviation, railway links, river transportation, pipelines, and border crossings will all be evaluated and recommendations developed for improvement. Among the short-term priority needs are: Reconstruction of the international airport at Kabul Define and improve a limited number of border crossings Provide adequate, affordable public transportation Rapid rehabilitation of Afghanistan's main road network Improvement and expansion of feeder and farm-to-market roads Extension of the road network beyond the main arteries and urban centers Medium- and long-term priorities include: Improving the quality of existing and developing new railway links Reconstruction of the international airport in Kandahar. Investigating potential to use Afghanistan's rivers for transport of passengers and goods Constructing natural gas pipelines to connect with neighboring states

18 Regional Infrastructure Impact for Central Asia 18 Deliverables Energ y planning and SD Working Groups will be established for discussion and planning of regional energy, water, and agriculture issues. This will be achieved through a series of Working Group meetings (Energy Planning Working Group, Energy Technical Working Group, and Integrated modeling Systems Dynamics Working Group). The team will coordinate all regional meetings with the administrative support of a regional administrating agency (see Appendix B). There will be monthly progress reports and quarterly meetings with the donor agency. The following deliverables are proposed: Phase I 1. Joint workshops with Afghan Ministries, NGOs, and U.S. government agencies to develop the initial list of stakeholders for the modeling efforts. 2. Collaboratively written model development outline detailing what will be included in the models, including milestones and deliverables. 3. Short-term training for participants with one or two regional training workshop(s). 4. Review of all proposed and/or in-progress energy, water, and agricultural infrastructure projects to provide input into the modeling effort. 5. Data gathering and development of data gathering plans for missing data. 6. Review of opportunities for near-term electrification focused on solar energy technologies. 7. Assistance to develop a Renewable Energy center. 8. Infrastructure Policy Survey Phase II 1. First versions of the models developed using existing data and detailed requirements for additional data needs. 2. Development of mid- and long-term critical infrastructure plans. 3. Detailed training for Afghan counterparts to allow them to lead the model development effort. 4. Joint workshops throughout the year and remote collaborative capabilities established. 5. Design for and standup of the Afghanistan Infrastructure Planning Institute (RIPI). 6. Design of renewable energy projects for remote areas. 7. Inclusion of transnational partners in the modeling process. 8. An operational Renewable Energy center. Phase III 1. Ownership of all modeling efforts assumed by RIPI. 2. Transnational plans and agreements in place. 3. Detailed training complete. 4. Models refined to allow local level planning. 5. Planning and modeling focused on developing long-term, sustainable systems. 6. Energy mix is established and in process of implementation.

19 Regional Infrastructure Impact for Central Asia Plans are complete for adjusting water allocation strategies to support a prospering Afghanistan. 8. Transportation sector short-, medium-, and long-term plans developed. 9. Develop infrastructure-related Afghan policies that have the potential to significantly enhance the quality of life of the citizenry of Afghanistan. Budget Summary by Phase Summary Phase I: $ 450K Phase II: $ 1,250K Phase III: $ 2,300K TOTAL $ 4,000K Additional Budget detail available upon request. In this proposal, a comprehensive, three phase modeling effort is outlined that engages multiple stakeholders to plan, allocate, and manage critical infrastructure resources for Afghanistan. The effort will include both national and transboundary energy and water resources. It is absolutely essential that Afghanistan and Central Asia make long lasting effective plans in these areas of infrastructure for the well being and secure future of the inhabitants in the region. Two items of great importance are included in The Afghanistan Compact. (1) Sustainable water resources management strategies and plans covering irrigation and drinking water supply developed by end-2006, and irrigation investments will result in at least 30% of water coming from large waterworks by end (2) By end-2010: electricity will reach at least 65% of households and 90% of non-residential establishments in major urban areas and at least 25% of households in rural areas; at least 75% of the costs will be recovered from users connected to the national power grid. A strategy for the development and use of renewable energies will be developed by end [24] This proposal will allow the achievement of these goals in an integrated, well-thought out, sustainable manner.

20 Regional Infrastructure Impact for Central Asia 20 References [1] US AID RFP No APSO. [2] World Bank, Washington DC, Central Asia, Regional Electricity Exports Potential Study ; REEPS report, December [3] Malik Mortaza, Afghanistan's Power Production System ; Society of Afghan Engineers, [4] [5] World Bank, Washington DC, World Development Indicators ; [6] The Northern Transmission System (NTS); Kabul, Afghanistan, November 27, [7] Z. Yu, Brian H. Bowen, F.T. Sparrow, V. Siriariyaporn, L.Yu, Integrated Energy Resources Planning for the ASEAN Countries and Southern China ; OGEL - Oil, Gas & Energy Law Intelligence, Vol 3 Issue 4, December [8] F.T. Sparrow, Brian H. Bowen, Zuwei Yu, Modeling Strategic International Transmission: Critical Planning Issues in Africa & the U.S.A. ; IEEE PES 2004 General Meeting, Denver, USA, June 9, [9] Brian H. Bowen, F.T. Sparrow, The Benefits from Integrated Markets in Africa ; Electricity Trading & Policy Analysis in Africa, London School of Economics, London, UK, August 18, [10] Brian H. Bowen, F.T. Sparrow, Zuwei Yu, Geoff Granum, Benefits to South Asia from an Integrated Electricity Market Infrastructure ; AED-USAID Strengthening Regional Energy Linkages in South Asia, Dhaka, Bangladesh, July 19-23, [11] Brian H. Bowen, F.T. Sparrow, Zuwei Yu, Muhammad Al-Salamah, Policy Analysis in the Development of Integrated Middle East Regional Energy Markets ; 8 th Power Generation Conference, Dubai, United Arab Emirates, October 6 to 9, [12] F.T. Sparrow, Brian H. Bowen, Diakalia Sanogo, "The Long-Term International Transmission Grid of West Africa with Low and High Demand Electricity Growth Rates"; ECOWAS Regional Modeling Workshop & Technical Working Group Committee Meeting, Bamako, Mali, June 4-8, [13] Kabul University and Purdue University Partnership for Human Capacity Building in Agriculture, Education, Engineering, and Technology Applied to Afghanistan Development ; Purdue University & Sponsored by The Association Liaison Office for University Cooperation in Development, [14] A New Partnership and Focus: Building Capacity for Developing a Technologically Skilled Workforce ; Purdue University & Sponsored by The Association Liaison Office for University Cooperation in Development, October September [15] International Herald Tribune, page 1, May15, [16] Rebuilding Afghanistan s Agriculture Sector, Asian Development Bank, 2003 [17] Broshears, R.E., Akbari, M.A., Chornack, M.P., Mueller, D.K., and Ruddy, B.C., 2005, Inventory of Ground-Water Resources in the Kabul Basin, Afghanistan: U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report

21 Regional Infrastructure Impact for Central Asia 21 [18] Ministry of Energy and Water, Kabul, Afghanistan, Draft Terms of Reference for Renewable Energy Master Plan, 6/2005 [19] Mudahar, M. S., , AF: Emergency Irrigation Rehabilitation, World Bank, Report No.: AB201 [20] News Release, 400,000 in Western Afghanistan to Benefit from Integrated Water Resources Project, Asian Development Bank, January 4, 2006, website: [21] Tunnermeier, T., Houben, G., 2005, Hydrogeology of the Kabul Basin Part I: Geology, Aquifer Characteristics, Climate and Hydrology, Afghanistan, Federal Institute for Geosciences and Natural Resources, BGR Record No.: 10277/05 [22] Houben G., Tunnermeier, T., 2005, Hydrogeology of the Kabul Basin Part II: Groundwater Geochemistry and Microbiology, Afghanistan, Federal Institute for Geosciences and Natural Resources, BGR Record No.: 10277/05 [23] Zonn, I.S., Water Resources of Northern Afghanistan and Their Future Use, Soyuzodproject [24] The Afghanistan Compact - Building on Success, The London Conference on Afghanistan, 31 January 1 February 2006

22 Regional Infrastructure Impact for Central Asia 22 Appendix A Electricity Generation Capacities According to the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank, Afghanistan imports electricity from Iran, Uzbekistan (UZ), Tajikistan (TJ), and Turkmenistan (TK), [5]. TK approximately 25 MW (via 100 kv line) UZ up to 30 MW (est.) via 220 kv line operating at 110 kv (to meet demand in Andkhoy, Sherberghan and Mazar-e-Sharif) TJ up to 30 MW (est) via 110 kv (serving Konduz). Existing available capacity exceeds 25,000 MW and there is a peak demand for Afghanistan s five neighboring CAREC countries of nearly 23,000 MW. Thus there is an excess capacity for meeting the needs of Afghanistan where transmission exists. The total capacity in Afghanistan is less than 300 MW, and possibly only a third of this power is available. Modest imports to Afghanistan are therefore currently enormously important for the 27 million occupants. Major new lines linking Afghanistan to other regional suppliers will become a significant aspect in future long-term planning while also planning for the construction of new generating capacity in the country. Table A-1. Installed MW Capacities and Supply/Demand of four CAREC Nations, 2002 Item Kyrgyz Rep. Tajikistan Uzbekistan Kazakhstan Total Installed Capacity Hydro (MW) 2,950 4,059 1,710 2,000 10,719 Installed Capacity Thermal (MW) ,870 16,240 27,219 Installed Capacity Total (MW) 3,713 4,405 11,580 18,240 37,938 Available Capacity (MW) About 3,100 3,428 7,800 13,840 25,068 Peak Demand (MW) 2,687 2,901 7,925 9,432 22,945 Generation Hydro (GWh) 10,778 15,086 7,278 8,861 42,003 Generation Thermal (GWh) 1, ,021 49,317 92,591 Generation Total (GWh) 11,893 15,224 49,299 58, ,594 Exports (GWh) 1, ,711 Imports (GWh) 430 1, ,561 Gross supply to domestic Market (GWh) 11,107 16,016 49,274 58, ,445 Domestic Billed Consumption Annual (GWh) 6,836 12,988 38,112 40,053 97,989 Source: [2]