Comparing geothermal codes to the United Nations Framework Classification for Fossil Energy, Mineral Reserves & Resources

Transcription

1 Global Review of Geothermal Reporting Prepared for Members of the International Energy Agency (IEA) Geothermal Implementing Agreement (GIA) Summary of: - February 2013 report prepared by Dr Graeme Beardsmore, Hot Dry Rock Pty Ltd - Protocol for Estimating & Mapping the Global Potential for EGS Barry Goldstein Vice Chair IEA GIA and Chair Organizing Committee WGC 2015 Executive Director, Energy Resources, South Australia State Government barry.goldstein@sa.gov.au

2 Comparing geothermal codes to the United Nations Framework Classification for Fossil Energy, Mineral Reserves & Resources The IEA GIA commissioned Graeme Beardsmore to compare existing geothermal energy reporting codes with the UNFC-2009 as the benchmark for cross-reference. The UNFC-2009 is a 3D classification system: Economic and social viability of economic extraction (E) Field project status and project feasibility (F) Geological knowledge (G) Conclusions in 2013 The UNFC D system can be adopted to develop a workable framework for geothermal energy within the context of clearly defined project parameters. The practical adoption of the UNFC-2009 for geothermal energy will require workable ways to deal with uncertainty and engagement of geothermal experts with the Expert Group on Resource Classification set up by the UN Economic Commission for Europe

3 Comparing geothermal codes to the United Nations Framework Classification for Fossil Energy, Mineral Reserves & Resources, 2009: (a) Canadian Geothermal Code for Public Reporting (2010) (b) The Future of Geothermal Energy (Rybach 2010) (c) Australian Geothermal Reporting Code (2010) (d) New Geothermal Terms and Definitions (GEA 2010) (e) A Protocol for Estimating and Mapping Global EGS Potential (Beardsmore, et al 2011) (f) A Resource Assessment Protocol for GEO-ELEC (European Com., 2011)

4 Protocol for Estimating & Mapping the Global Potential for EGS Graeme Beardsmore Ladislaus Rybach David Blackwell Charles Baron

5 Need for a Protocol Compare apples with apples

6 EGS Mapping Protocol Predicted T 5,500m Examples: USA Alberta, Canada & Australia Outcome: consistency (trust)

7 Need for a Protocol Enable a consistent global inventory of EGS potential Build a standardized geothermal map of the world Improve public awareness and knowledge of the global EGS potential and its regional distribution a vital precursor to informed R&D, energy policy making, and broad-scale commercial deployment Release data in standardized format to enable third party development of visualization platforms, analysis tools, and community insight

8 Need for a Protocol Geothermal power potential often represented by proxies, such as heat flow or temperature Image from Global Network Energy Institute

9 Need for a Protocol Energy policy makers need MWs! e.g. wind power potential

10 Need for a Protocol Variables for EGS MWe Depth / volume of rock Reservoir temperature Base (or rejection) T C Recovery factor Conversion efficiency Porosity (fluid / rock ratio) Rock density / specific heat Estimates can vary by orders of magnitude

11 Principles of the Protocol Derived from D. Blackwell s work published and reviewed in the 2006 MIT Report Outputs similar to Chapter 2 of the 2006 MIT Report Finished maps similar to US Geothermal Resources (3-10 km) Google Earth Layer Expanded to apply to areas with limited data Compatible with public Geothermal Reporting Codes in Australia and Canada

12 Technical framework Two layer model sediment over basement Assumption of conductive heat flow Base temperature = surface temperature + 80 C Heat Flow and Temperature at Depth Distinguish Technical from Theoretical Potential Recovery Factor : Minimum 2%; Median 14%; Maximum 20% Will in future incorporate quantitative uncertainty Conversion efficiency temperature-dependent as per MIT report

13 Technical framework Theoretical Potential the physically usable energy supply over a certain time span in a given region. It is defined solely by the physical limits of use and thus marks the upper limit of the theoretically realizable energy supply contribution. Technical Potential the fraction of the theoretical potential that can be used under the existing technical restrictions structural and ecologic restrictions as well as legal and regulatory allowances Rybach, L.: The future of geothermal energy and its challenges. Proceedings World Geothermal Congress 2010 Bali, Indonesia, April 2010.

14 Surface temperature Depth of sediment Key inputs Sediment rock properties (thermal conductivity, heat generation) Basement rock properties (thermal conductivity, heat generation, specific heat, density) Surface heat flow (or borehole temperatures and rock properties)

15 Estimating EGS potential Follow a recipe for T Depth

16 Estimating EGS potential Follow a recipe For T Depth Theoretical Potential is for now <10km

17 Estimating EGS potential Follow a recipe For T Depth Limited to accessible land and < 6,500 m makes this is a practical Technical Potential

18 Global review process Colin Williams (USGS) Anthony Budd (Geoscience Australia) Susan Petty (AltaRock Inc) Christoph Clauser (RWTH Aachen University) Dan Yang (Borealis GeoPower Inc) Arner Hjartarson (Manvitt Engineering) Wendy Calvin (Great Basin Center for Geothermal Energy) Yoonho Song (KIGAM) Jim Lawless (SKM) Endorsed by: International Geothermal Association International Energy Agency Geothermal Implementing Agreement International Heat Flow Commission

19 Key outputs Surface heat flow map based on data and geological assumptions Temperature at Depth maps and tables down to 10,000 m Estimates of EGS Theoretical Potential in basement to 10,000 m Estimates of EGS Technical Potential in basement to 6,500 m

20 First application Australia

21 First application Australia

22 First application Australia

23 First application Australia

24 First application Australia Temperature at 5,000 m Model driven Data driven Image from Torrens Energy ASX statement 11 November 2010

25 Progress: Estimates of MWe for Australia Assumes 20% recoverability factor (i.e. divide by 10 for 2% recoverability)

26 Progress: other regions using Protocol: USA, Alberta, GEOELEC across Europe, S Korea Next steps: Upload results to & other sites Assess other regions using the Protocol Continually review Protocol following experience Reassess areas regularly as new data and technology become available Quantify variance between estimates (assess consistency)

27 USA maps updated in 2011 Current version: Steps Taken Temp at Depth Resource by Temp and Depth Total Capacity Relative Share of Resource by Temp and Depth Adapted to: Replace Resource with Potential Thermal Gradients by 5 x 5 cell Potential by cell Accessible vs. Inaccessible land Mean surface temperature Practical Theoretical vs Technical Potential

28 Acknowledgements The development of this Protocol was made possible by the financial support of Google.org through its Renewable Energy Cheaper than Coal initiative (RE<C). The authors also thank the International Energy Agency Geothermal Implementing Agreement Annex III Leadership (Roy Baria and Doone Wyborn) and participants for their encouragement in developing this Protocol to foster international understanding and interest in geothermal energy.

29 Acknowledgements Ben Waining of HDR, who has had the task of implementing the Protocol for the first time; to find and solve all the practical problems of implementation.

30 Following 4 slides shifted to back opting not to use

31 Basis for the Protocol

32 Basis for the Protocol

33 First application Australia So what do the results look like?

34 Need for a Protocol