Carbon in US Energy Production

Transcription

1 Carbon in US Energy Production Peter Wilcoxen Departments of Economics and Public Administration The Maxwell School, Syracuse University SURE 2009 November 5,

2 Fuel use and energy units National fuel use is measured in quads 1 quad = 1 quadrillion BTU (10^15) How large is a quad? Coal unit trains : 100 cars, about 1 mile long 1 train fuels a 300 MW power plant for about 3 days 1 quad = 4,500 unit trains Annual energy consumption World: 400 quads US: 100 quads 2

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7 California load curve Independent System Operator (ISO) Operates part of the electrical grid Data for January 21st Demand (red curve): Min at 3:30 am, 21 GW Max at 6:30 pm, 32.5 GW Max is 55% higher Capacity (green curve): GW 7

8 Oil 12% of capacity 50 GWyr 7 GWyr Electric Sector Capacity Utilization 2006 Natural Gas 22% of capacity Coal 72% of capacity 290 GWyr 84 GWyr 84 GWyr 224 GWyr 511 GWyr Nuclear 90% of capacity 10 GWyr 90 GWyr 444 GWyr 955 GWyr Renewables 34% of capacity 77 GWyr 39 GWyr Legend Electricity, GWyr [GWyr] Additional Capacity, GWyr [GWyr]

9 Summary of generation mix Fuel Capacity (GW) Generation (GWyr) Fossil Fuel Use (Quads) Carbon (Mmt C) Oil Gas Coal Fossil total Nuclear Renewables Total

10 Leading options for replacing fossil Integrated gasification combined cycle coal (IGCC) With carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) Combined cycle gas (CC) With CCS Nuclear Renewables Biomass Hydro Wind Solar thermal, photovoltaic 10

11 Cost of building new power plants Technology Capital cost per GW of capacity Technology Capital cost per kw of capacity Coal $2.1 B Adv Nuclear $3.3 B IGCC $2.4 B Biomass $3.8 B IGCC with CCS $3.5 B Hydro $2.2 B Nat Gas CC $0.9 B Onshore Wind $1.9 B CC with CCS $1.9 B Solar Thermal $5.0 B Solar/PV $6.0 B 11

12 Recent expansion of gas capacity Natural Gas Capacity in GW year

13 Replacing fossil completely? Need about 550 GW total 330 GW baseload 220 GW peaking Fossil with CCS 410 GW of IGCC CCS coal (80% utilization) = $1.4 T 220 GW of CC CCS gas = $420 B Total = $1.8T Intermittent renewables 1300 GW of wind (25% utilization) = $2.5 T 220 GW of CC CCS gas = $420 B Total = $2.9 T 13

14 Transmission grid Can we get power where it s needed? Especially important for wind and solar Best locations are far from cities Need geographic dispersion 14

15 More grid capacity needed for wind Variation in wholesale electricity prices due to grid congestion From 2006 Midwest ISO PJW Coordinated System Plan (CSP), December

16 Very important implication Would be less expensive if demand were lower Need to reduce fuel use on the demand side 16

17 US Residential Energy Consumption 2001 Values in quadrillion BTU unless otherwise noted Space Heating 50% (32% C) 93 mmt C Oil Gas Renewables Electricity Total Consumption Air Conditioning 6% (11% C) Water Heating 16% (13% C) 32 mmt C 38 mmt C Ovens & Ranges 7% (7% C) Refrigerators 5% (9% C) 19 mmt C 27 mmt C 163 mmt C 290 mmt C Legend Electricity [Quad] Natural Gas [Quad] Appliances 27% (44% C) Lighting 3% (6% C) Clothes Dryers 2% (4% C) 17 mmt C 11 mmt C 127 mmt C Oil [Quad] Renewables [Quad] Carbon [mmt C] 0.1 Freezers 1% (2% C) 7 mmt C Carbon from Electricty [mmt C] 0.1 Color TVs 1% (2% C) 6 mmt C Data source: Residential Energy Consumption Survey Other 8% (14% C) 40 mmt C 17

18 US Commercial Building Energy Consumption 1999 Values in quadrillion BTU unless otherwise noted Space Heating 34% (17% C) 33 mmt C Oil Gas Total Consumption Air Conditioning 19% (27% C) Water Heating 6% (3% C) 52 mmt C 6 mmt C 91 mmt C 191 mmt C Electricity Cooking 5% (3%) 6 mmt C Refrigeration 5% (7% C) 14 mmt C Legend Electricity [Quad] Natural Gas [Quad] Other 41% (52% C) 0.7 Lighting 13% (19% C) 37 mmt C 100 mmt C Oil [Quad] Carbon [mmt C] Carbon from Electricty [mmt C] 0.6 Office Equipment 10% (15% C) 28 mmt C 0.3 Other 7% (8% C) 15 mmt C Data source: Residential Energy Consumption Survey

19 US Manufacturing Energy Consumption, Quadrillion BTU Food Beverage, Tobacco Textile Mills Textile Product Mills Apparel Leather Wood Products Paper Printing Petroleum Products Chemicals Plastics, Rubber Nonmetallic Minerals Primary Metals Fabricated Metals Machinery Computers, Electronics Electrical Equipment Transportation Equipment Furniture Miscellaneous

20 Historical perspective? Does fuel use rise inexorably no matter what? What do we know from history about fuel use? 20

21 Exponential growth after the war (3.4%) Quadrillion BTU Year Actual Fitted 21

22 Sharp change after the energy shocks! Quadrillion BTU Year Actual Fitted 22

23 Energy prices matter! Stabilized US energy consumption for about 20 years GDP growth was a little slower: about 0.2% per year 23