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7 Figure ES-1: Overnight Costs (2008$/KW) GREAT BANDWAGON MARKET Wall Street and Independent Analysts Utilities NUCLEAR RENNAISANCE Early Vendors, Government & Academics Year of Operation/Projection Operating Plants Projected Plants 3

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9 Percent of Nuclear Efficiency Cogeneration Biomass I Biomass II Geothermal Wind Landfill Solar - Thermal Solar PV Fuel Cell CC Gas Coal Scrubbed Coal w CCS IGCC IGCC w CCS Nuclear Geothermal Wind Solar - Thermal Solar PV CC Gas Coal Scrubbed IGCC Nuclear Geothermal Wind Hydro Biomass I Biomass II CC Gas Fuel Cell Nuclear Wind Solar - Thermal CC Gas Coal Scrubbed Nuclear Lazard CRS CEC Moody's S & P Lovins Wind CC Gas Coal Scrubbed IGCC Nuclear Efficiency Cogeneration Wind CC Gas Coal Scrubbed Nuclear 5

10 (Cost of Alternatives Substitution Curve) 16 Solar PV Solar Thermal Wind II Fossil w/ccs Nuclear Storage & New Tech. Cents per kwh (2008$) Efficiency Hydro Geothermal Cogeneration Wind I Biomass II With Natural Gas Biomass I Percent of 2050 Base Case Demand/Low Carbon Supply (Billions of kwh) 6

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13 Coal Nuclear Societal Impact Hydro Fossil w/ccs Cogen Gas Biomass Landfill Solar Thermal Efficiency Wind Geothermal Fuel Cell Solar PV Consumer Cost 9

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15 Overnight Costs (2008$/KW) GREAT BANDWAGON MARKET NUCLEAR RENAISSANCE Year of Operation/Projection Operating Plants Projected Plants 11

16 Dollars per kwh ($2008) GREAT BANDWAGON MARKET NUCLEAR RENAISSANCE Operating Plants Projected Plants 12

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19 Operating Assumptions Capacity, Life, Performance Risk: Financial, Marketplace, Technological, Regulatory, Safety Overnight Costs Finance Costs, Owners Cost All-in Costs Installed Subsidies: Insurance, R&D, Loan Guarantees Waste Operation & Maintenance (Fixed & Variable) Capital Additions Direct Costs (Bus bar Costs) External Costs Fuel Costs (Supplies & Enrichment) Delivered Cost (Pocketbook Costs) Total Social Costs Waste Management Escalation or Management, Quality Control, Design, Siting Pinch Points (Heavy Components, Labor, Inputs) Scale, Regulation Decommissioning Costs Indirect Costs (T&D Costs) Source: Prepared by Author Calculation Conventions Deflating, Discounting, Levelizing 15

20 Source: Prepared by Author 16

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23 Plant Characteristics Capacity (MW) Capacity Factor Forced Outage Rate Scheduled Outage Rate Heat Rate (If Applicable) Heat Rate and Capacity Degradation Deflator Series Fuel Prices ($/MMBtu) Instant Cost ($/kw) Installed Cost ($/kw) Fixed O&M ($/KW-YR) Plant Characteristics Capacity (MW) Capacity Factor Forced Outage Rate Scheduled Outage Rate Heat Rate (If Applicable) Heat Rate and Capacity Degradation Financial Assumption (Merchant, Muni & IOU) % Debt Cost of Debt (%) Cost of Equity (%) Loan/Debt Terms (Years) Book Life (Years) COST OF GENERATION MODEL Wholesale Electricity Prices ($/MWh) Fixed Cost Variable Cost Total Cost Levelized Fixed Costs ($/kw Yr& $/MWh) Capital & Financing Insurance Ad Valorem Fixed O& M Corporate Taxes Levelized Variable Costs ($/kw Yr& $/MWh) Fuel Variable O&M Total Levelized Costs ($/kw Yr& $/MWh) Levelized Fixed Costs Levelized Variable cost Annual Cost ($/MWh) Fixed Cost Variable O&M Total Cost Screening curves ($/kw Yr& $/MWh) Fixed Cost Variable Cost Total Cost Sensitivity Curves (%) Fuel Prices Capacity Factor Installed Cost Discount Rate Cost of Equity Cost of Debt 19

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28 Wall Street and Independent Analysts Overnight Costs (2008$/KW) GREAT BANDWAGON MARKET NUCLEAR RENAISSANCE Utilities Early consultants Government & Academics Year of Operation/Projection Operating Plants Projected Plants 24

29 Overnight Costs (2008$/KW) MIT EIA TVA Year of Operation/Projection Projected Plants Sources: See Figure I-1. 25

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31 30 27 Busbar Costs (2008 Cents/kWh) Overnight Costs (2008$//kW) Harding Medium MIT Base Case Utility Finance U of C Base case 27

32 Cents per kwh (2008$) MIT Keystone Severance Harding High Low Busbar Costs (2008 cents/kwh) Harding All Overnight Costs (2008$/kW) Utility Finance + Harding Base Case O & M 28

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34 11000 Overnight Costs (2008$/KW) There are no surprises, when history suggests that costs would do this Initial studies spent a lot of time trying to explain why cost estimates might do this Recent studies spend a lot of time explaining why cost estimates are doing this Year of Operation/Projection Operating Plants Projected Plants Sources: See Figure I-1. 30

35 31 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Year of Operation Lifetime Capacity Factor

36 Source: MIT, 2003, p. 43; Keystone, 2007, p

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38 N u m b e r o f P la n ts Ordered Complete

39 Percent of Base Initial Year Projection Projected Actual 35

40 Percent of Base Initial Year Projection Median Actual All 36

41 Years Actual Estimated 37

42 Overnight Costs ($2008) Construction Period and Overnight Costs - Completed Plants y = x R 2 = Construction Period Years Overnight Costs (2008$/kw) Construction Periods and Overnight Costs - Future Plants y = 914.9x R 2 = Construction Period (Years) 38

43 % of Total Construction Costs Year from Groundbreaking Severance Moody's 39

44 Analysts' Overnight and Busbar Cost Estimates Since Busbar Costs (2008 cnets/kwh) Overnight Costs (2008$/kW) Analysts' Overnight and Busbar Cost Extimates Since CEC Utility Model Moody s Harding mid-mid Harding high-mid 10 0 MIT II CRS Lazard high Overnight Costs (2008$/kW) Source: Figure I-1. 40

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47 V. NUCLEAR REACTOR COSTS COMPARED TO OTHER OPTIONS 43

48 Percent of Nuclear Efficiency Cogeneration Biomass I Biomass II Geothermal Wind Landfill Solar - Thermal Solar PV Fuel Cell CC Gas Coal Scrubbed Coal w CCS IGCC IGCC w CCS Nuclear Geothermal Wind Solar - Thermal Solar PV CC Gas Coal Scrubbed IGCC Nuclear Geothermal Wind Hydro Biomass I Biomass II CC Gas Fuel Cell Nuclear Wind Solar - Thermal CC Gas Coal Scrubbed Nuclear Wind CC Gas Coal Scrubbed IGCC Nuclear Lazard CRS CEC Moody's S & P Lovins Efficiency Cogeneration Wind CC Gas Coal Scrubbed Nuclear 44

49 (Nuclear Reactor Cost = 100%) Percent of Nuclear Efficiency Efficiency Biomass I Biomass II Biomass II Biomass II Cogeneration Hydro Geothermal Geothermal Geothermal Landfill CC Gas CC Gas CC Gas CC Gas CC Gas Wind I Wind I Wind I Wind ii Nuclear Nuclear Nuclear Nuclear Nuclear Solar - Thermal Solar - Thermal Fuel Cell Fuel Cell CC Gas w/ccs IGCC w CCS Coal w CCS Solar - Thermal Solar - Thermal Solar - Thermal Coal Scrubbed Coal Scrubbed Coal Scrubbed Coal Scrubbed IGCC IGCC IGCC 45

50 $ (2007)/kWh Hydro Conduit Biomass - LFG Biomass - AD Food Geothermal - Dual Flash Geothermal - Binary Wind - Class 5 Advanced Combined Cycle Biomass - WWTP Conventional CC - Duct Fired Biomass Combustion - Stoker Boiler Biomass Fluidized Bed Boiler Biomass - IGCC Fuel Cell - Solid Oxide Fuel Cell - Molten Carbonate Hydro - Small Scale Conventional Combined Cycle Biomass - AD Dairy IGCC Moody'sNuclear Fuel Cell - Proton Exchange Base Case CRS Carbon Solar Trugh Solar PV Conc. Solar Stirling Dish Solar PV (Single Axis) 46

51 Percent of Nuclear Lazard CRS Moody's S & P Lovins CBO U of C MIT Pulverized Coal Gas CC 47

52 $/MWH Efficiency Cogeneration Biomass co-firing Geothermal Wind Small Hydro Biomass-Direct Landfill Solar - Thermal Fuel Cell CC Gas Gas w CCS Coal w CCS Nuclear Solar-PV Coal Scrubbed CBO Lovins S&P Lazard Moody's CRS Harding Severance REN21 CEC MIT II IGCC 48

53 Levelized Cost of Energy ($/MWh) Gas CCGT Thin Film PV Crystalline PV

54 30 Soalr PV Cost (2008 Cents/kWh) Landfill Efficiency Solar Therm Biomass New Hydro Geotherm Wind Cogeneration Low Carbon Carbon "Supply" (Percent of 2030 Demand) 50

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56 16 Solar PV Fossil w/ccs Nuclear Storage & New Tech. Cents per kwh (2008$) Efficiency Hydro Geothermal Cogeneration Wind I Solar Thermal Wind II Biomass II With Natural Gas Biomass I Percent of 2050 Base Case Demand/Low Carbon Supply (Billions of kwh) 52

57 Cents Per kwh $19 billion per reactor; $1.9 trillion for 100 reactors 10 5 $32 billion per reactor; $3.2 trillion for 100 reactors $44 billion per reactor; $4.4 trillion for 100 reactors 0 Efficiency/Renewables Nuclear - Low Nuclear - Mid Nuclear - High 53

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60 8000 Capital Cost ($/kw) Biomass Direct 36 Solar PV Tower Wind Coal w/ccs Geothermal Nuclear IGCC 12 Fuel Cell Solar PV Thin Film Solar PV Crystalline Solar PV Trough 2000 Land Fill Biomass Co-fire 36 Gas CC Consumer Cost (Cents/kWh) Source: 56

61 0.3 Cents per kg CO2 Saved Biomass I Efficiency Geotherm Cogen Hydro Biomass II Windl Landfill Solar Therm Fuel Cell Gas CCS3 Nuclear Wind II Coal CCS Solar PV Cents per kwh 57

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63 Conventional Coal Acid Rain Gas CC Solar, Wind Nuclear Uranium Source: Moody s, 2008, p

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67 Nuclear Reactors $/MWH Biomass - AD Food Hydro - In Conduit Biomass - LFG Wind - Class 5 Geothermal - Dual Flash Geothermal - Binary Biomass - WWTP IGCC Advanced CC Conventional CC Hydro - Small Scale Conventional CC - Duct Fuel Cell - Solid Oxide Advanced Nuclear Fuel Cell - Molten Biomass - IGCC Biomass - Stoker Biomass - AD Dairy Biomass Fluidized Bed Advanced $5900 Fuel Cell - Proton Advanced Simple Cycle Solar - Parabolic Trough Merchant Investor Owned Utility Public Utility 63

68 D. THE BOTTOM LINE ON NUCLEAR POWER 64

69 Coal Nuclear Societal Impact Hydro Fossil w/ccs Cogen Gas Biomass Landfill Solar Thermal Efficiency Wind Geothermal Solar PV Consumer Cost Fuel Cell 65

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72 Differential Assumptions about Capital Costs: Base 2003 Updated Cost at Assumption Assumption Full Index Escalation Nuclear Coal

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