Forecasting CO 2 Mitigation and Policy Options for China s Key Sectors in !

Transcription

1 Second Biennial Conference of the Global Research Forum on Sustainable Production and Consumption Forecasting CO 2 Mitigation and Policy Options for China s Key Sectors in ! Dr. Zongguo WEN & Dr. Xuan ZHANG Research Center for Circular Economy, School of Environment, Tsinghua University June 9, 2014

2 Contents! 2 1. Emission Status and Technology Assessment Emission Status and the Technology Development Emission Reduction Difficulties Analysis 2. Methodology on CO 2 Mitigation Analysis Technologies Based Bottom-up Model Scenarios Setting and Analysis 3. Mitigation Potentials and Technological Pathways Status Assessment Mitigation Potential Assessment Technological Cost Analysis Technological Pathways Selection

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4 1.2 Key Industries: Emissions Assessment & Difficulties Analysis Electricity Industry! 4 CO2 g/kwh China U.S. Germany UK France Japan India Russia Index Unit Inter. Ave. Inter.Adva Conclusion g/kwh < = Reach the international advanced level; 1000MW Ultra Supercritical units are the highest capacity in the world Coal fired power generation intensity Electric power generation intensity CO2 emission intensity of thermal power generation g/kwh > > China still lags behind other advanced countries especially on nuclear power, wind power, and biomass power technology

5 1.2 Key Industries: Emissions Assessment & Difficulties Analysis Electricity Industry! 5 Characters: China U.S. UK Germany F rance Japan Russia * India* Coalfirefirefireclear power energy Worldwide* Oil- Gas- Nu- Wa-ter Other power power power power (* represents data in 2007, and the other data is from 2008) Unit coal consumption decreased, but the CO2 emission of the whole electricity industry is higher than that of developed countries Energy Structure: Coal combustion dominates electricity generation in China. Difficulties! Electricity: Restricted by primary energy structure. Renewable energy: Cannot form a large portion of the energy structure in the short term. Expensive, limited by regional resources.

6 1.2 Key Industries: Emissions Assessment & Difficulties Analysis Iron and Steel Industry! 6 Characters: Energy consumption per ton crude steel reduced gradually. Short process energy consumption intensity was 1/3 of the long process, while steelmaking production only took 13%. Year Sintering Coking Making Iron converter Electric furnace Energy Steel Consumptio Rollingn of per ton steel In 2010 the energy consumption per ton steel for the converter process was reduced to a negative value. Energy consumption of other processes was better than 2006 international advanced levels in Index Unit Inter. Ave.Inter.Adva Conclusion Comprehensive energy consumption per ton steel Electric furnace steel ratio tce/t % > < > < 10% more than International Average. (604 kgce /t in 2010) China still lags behind International Advanced levels. Some big enterprises reached the international advanced level. (Baosteel, Anshan Iron and steel company) Difficulties:! Uneven Energy consumption of per ton steel & CO2 emissions of different enterprises The accumulative waste steel is too little, which results into low percentage of Short process steelmaking production ; then limit the reduction potential

7 1.2 Key Industries: Emissions Assessment & Difficulties Analysis Cement industry! 7 Item Comprehensive electricity consumption (kwh/t) Heat consumption for clinker (kgce/t) Comprehensive energy consumption (kgce/t) Comprehensive energy consumption per ton production Index Unit Intern. Average Comprehensive energy consumption of new dry process cement production line Inter. Adva Conclusion tce/t > > New dry process cement production equipment reached international advanced level. 10,000t/d equipment can be designed and tce/t > > manufactured in China Uptake of advanced new dry process cement clinkers reached 80%, but 20% of output is still produced by the outdated shaft kiln process After completion of the shaft kiln elimination, thus further improvement potential of cement kilns is small. Cement unit electricity consumption can be improved slightly by The world average use ratio for fossil fuel alternatives (inc. biomass) is 12.5%, while in China is close to 0, which is difficult to improve in a short period.

8 1.2 Key Industries: Emissions Assessment & Difficulties Analysis Construction sector! Characters: 8 Unit carbon emission levels lower than developed countries, but growth is fast. Related to the urbanization speed and consumption upgrade. Difficulties :! Rigid demand: rapid growth of housing, winter heating, summer air-conditioning, hot water and electrical appliances North heating Urban residence Rural residence Index Unit Inter. Ave. Inter.Adva Conclusion North heating consumption Unit construction area carbon emissions W/m 2 -- > kg/m 2.a -- < Public buliding Total Carbon emissions per construction area in 2010 was 30.4kg/m 2, 40% that of USA, and lower than developed countries. North heating Urban residence Rural residence Public buliding CO2 Emission emission in 2010(100 in 100 million Mt) tons)!

9 1.2 Key Industries Emission Assessment & Difficulties Analysis! Industry Index Unit Inter. Ave.Inter.Adva Conclusion PetroleumProduction emissions intensity Electrolytic aluminum Aluminum integrated AC power average consumption Automobile Unit CO 2 emissions intensity per unit mileage tco 2 /t production Fuel economy L/ 100km > > 1 ton oil is about 26% of production energy Upstream(oil extraction) energy consumption is 10-30% higher than developed countries, although downstream(refining, et al) energy consumption has been close to international advanced levels. kwh > > Reduced to 13979kWh in 2010; has been lower than the target established by International Aluminum Co (IAI) (2005) at the end of 2010; the overall energy efficiency reached international advanced levels. g/km = > The average unit carbon emissions intensity still 20%-30% higher than the international advanced level. The traditional internal combustion engine driven = > technology, bulk loading products (system) are still depending on foreign technology or joint enterprise.

10 Conclusion of Technological Assessment! Industrial emissions reduction & Low carbon advanced technology: Breakthrough Energy consumption & Carbon emissions intensity in key Industries : Decreased Available technology in large enterprises : Reached international advanced levels Industrial average technology level: Still lags behind international advanced levels, so the energy consumption intensity & CO2 emission intensity: 20% higher than the international advanced levels Lacking low carbon core technologies, ability of special materials and key equipment manufacturing is weak(such as the Ultra Supercritical )

11 11 2. Methodology on CO2 Mitigation Analysis The emission reduction potential in the future Input Technologies Database Algorithm Setting CO2 Emission Assessment Module Scenario Setting Module Macro economy Scenario Setting Sub Module Technologies Scenario Setting Sub Module Technology Reduction Potential Analysis Module Technology Reduction Cost Analysis Module Calculation Structure

12 2.1 Production- Process-Technology System Simulation :Structure Adjustment & Upgrade! Process A! Process A1! Process A2! Point Technology a1! Point Technology an! Production! 81! Process B! Process An! Process B1! Process Bm! Point Technology b1 m! CO2 Control Technology 524: Emissions Reduction Technologies!

13 CO2 Mitigation Technologies Database v1.0! Industries:11, Technical Data :669 in 2012, increasing about 20 items yearly Survey Technique Cases :670, Investigated Enterprises: 1378, Experts:364 Data sources: cooperate with the industrial associations, through filed survey, expert interview and enterprises questionnaires

14 2.2 Scenarios setting! 14 Predicted years 2015,2020,2030 Scenario Variables GDP growth rate(%) Scenario Urbanization rate(%) Slow(SL) Population(100M) Scenario High(SH) Scenarios of socioeconomic development GDP growth rate(%) Urbanization rate(%) Population(100M) According to the socioeconomic development scenarios, the macroscopic scenarios of industrial development are set: 1output of primary production 2constraint of raw material supply 3fuel consumption Note: referred by the national planning of industrial development in China

15 Emissions Reduction Scenario Setting Module! Technology Developing Technology policy Scenario Setting! Scenarios! Business As Usual BAU! The baseline scenario will ignore national commitments and pressure on CO2 control, and continue with policies prior to Technology popularization rate increase appropriately.! Control Weak CW! industry technology scenarios will consider the "12 th 5-year Plan, considering the various energy-saving measures after In future five years consider the related 12 FYP of industry development.! Control Middle CM! Control Pollution - Super CPS! Compared with CPW, the economic structure will be further optimized to increase energy-saving and emissions-reduction efforts, including more input into the development of low-carbon economy and conservation practices in production and consumption. China s 2020 commitments on emission reduction targets were used as an important reference.! Based on voluntary emissions reductions, and taking into account global emissions reduction goals, China will shift to a low-carbon economy, develop and apply low carbon technologies and strengthen international cooperation Technology popularization rate in model would reach the expected maximum point.!

16 Three Models integrated for the calculation! 16 Industrial CO2 emissions : Fuel Combustion Carbon Containing Material Decomposition Electric power consumption ERPM Model LEAP Model AIM/enduse

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23 (5) Industrial Cost-Benefit Analysis (Lowest cost of per unit emission reduction)! 23 industry Optimal scenarios CO2 emission reduction (100 Mt CO2) Electricity Middle Iron &steel Supper - middle Cement Supper - middle Total cost of industry emission reduction(100 Million Yuan) (s upper) (mi (supper)ddle) ( supper) (mi (supper)ddle) Oil Middle Electrolytic Aluminum! Middle Automobile Middle Construction Middle Supper The middle and super scenarios are optimal for most sectors, of which: Electricity, Oil, Aluminum and Automobile elect the middle scenario; Construction sectors choose the middle or super scenarios as the optimal scenario. Iron & Steel, and Cement industries reduce emissions between middle and super scenarios; in the early and middle stages, the super scenario is the best and the middle scenario is optimal in the later stage.

24 (6) Recommended Scenario and Technology options: Industries Electricity Oil Recommended options 1. Technology options:ultra Supercritical Units (USC), small hydropower, second generation pressurised water reactor nuclear power, third generation pressurised water reactor nuclear power, middle/large hydropower. 2. Scenario options:choose Ultra Supercritical Units (USC) and heat & power cogeneration in the short term. Focus on structural readjustment in the long term todevelop land-based wind power, offshore wind power, photovoltaic power generation, nuclear power, biomass and other clean and renewable energies. 1.Technology options:overall optimisation of refinery energy system, improved energy efficiency of refining furnace, inferior raw gasification poly generation. 2.Scenario options: In the short term,focus on upstream and downstream energy-saving, emissions reduction and energy efficiency. In the long term, choose low carbon energy technologies. Iron and steel 1.Technology options:blast furnace coal injection technology, high blast furnace coke oven gas technology, no blast furnace iron-making technology 2. Scenario options: In the short term,focus on coke dry quenching technology, converter negative energy steelmaking technology etc.in the long term, change the production process and find new reducing agents to reduce energy consumption.

25 (5) Recommended Scenario and Technology options: Industries Cement Aluminum Vehicle transportation Building consumption Recommended options 1. Technology options:new dry process, energy efficiency improvement technology, popularisation of alternative fuel technology and new alternative cement 2. Scenario options:in the short term,focus on energy-saving equipment modifications, cement kiln exhaust gas, waste heat power generation, cement clinker substitutiontechnologiesetc.in the long term, replace fossil fuels with waste fuel, develop composite cement to reduce the content of cement clinker, and develop Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS). 1. Technology options: Uninterruptedstop (open) tank repair technology, accurate cutting technology of alumina, electrolytic magnetic field optimisation technology, electrolytic aluminum cell cathode structure optimisation technology, improved carbon anode quality technology. 2. Scenario options:in the short term, improvethe reaction properties of anodic and automatic extinguishing anode effect technologiesto reduce CO 2 and PFC emissions. In the long-term, focus on the use of renewable energies and improve the quality of raw materials and auxiliary materials. 1. Technology options:energy-saving technology, efficient internal combustion engine, efficient transmission and driving, vehicle design and optimisation, lightweight materials and light structure, hybrid automobile, cultivatingnew energy automobiles. 2. Scenario options:in the short term,develop and adoptthe efficient internal combustion engine, design advanced energy-saving cars. 1. Technology options: Cogeneration heating based on absorption heat pump; heat metering device, heat pump hot water system, solar hot water system, independent temperature and humidity air conditioning technology. 2. Scenario options: In the short term,promote use of heat pump technology and absorption type heat recycling technology. In the long term, promote green lighting, design high efficient air conditionersto reduce the building energydemands.

26 Conclusion! 26 Iron and steel, cement and aluminum are the critical manufacturing industries to the national economy. In the forecast for CO2 emissions, production uncertainty is bigger than technology uncertainty. CO2 emissions controls of consumer sectors will face serious challenges in the future. CO2 emissions from automobile and construction rise under the BAU and all policy-driven scenarios. CO2 emissions is also closely related to product and service demand, and would not reach a turning point before 2030.!

27 27 Reducing emissions rigidly become more and more difficultly in the production industries i.e., electricity, iron and steel, and cement, rigid emissions reduction measures by changing the industry structure, such as elimination of backward capacity are limited and difficult to implement. Emissions reduction breakthroughs should be adjusted to consumer sectors, i.e. automobile and construction. Green consumption should lead the application of emissions reduction measures for the manufacturing industry.!

28 Thank you for your attention Dr. Xuan ZHANG Post-doctoral Fellow School of Environment Tsinghua University Mobile: