The Danish Energy Technology Catalogues

Transcription

1 The Danish Energy Technology Catalogues General concept of a energy technology catalogue, the Danish experiences in developing energy technology data catalogues and how it is used Rikke Næraa Danish Energy Agency July 19, 2017 Page 1 Danish Energy Agency

2 Outline of presentation Why common energy data What is the Danish Energy Technology catalogue? How is it made? - focus on approach for making technology catalogue not on specific technologies Danish Energy Agency July 19, 2017 Page 2

3 What is the Danish Energy Technology catalogues? data sheets containing primarily structured, quantitative data on status and projection of development of costs and efficiencies and other technology specific data. Data sets for e.g. 2015, 2020, 2030 and 2050 Qualitative data descriptions Public available Danish Energy Agency July 19, 2017 Page 3

4 What can TCs be used? Analysis of energy systems, including economic scenario models and total system energy planning. Simpler analysis of energy technologies, comparative analysis Common reference point for calculations -"Official" data on energy technologies that "all" stakeholders can agree on. A kind of best estimate. Should not be used for projection and design of specific energy installations /plants Danish Energy Agency July 19, 2017 Page 4

5 Examles of used by DEA Energy scenarios for 2020, 2035 and 2050 Danish Energy Outlook TIMES-model -the backbone of many of our analyses

6 Onshore wind (large) Off shore ( large) Photo voltatic (large) CHP (Back Pressure, medium) Wood Chips CHP (Back Pressure, medium) Straw CHP (Back Pressure, medium) NG CHP (Extraction, large) Wood Pellets CHP (Extraction, large) Coal CHP, rebuild (Extraction, large) Wood Pellets CHP (Extraction, large) NGA /MWh(2015 prices) Simple comparison of technologies : Cost of producing 1 kwh of electricity on different technologies CO2 cost Fuel cost O&M Investment cost Danish Energy Agency July 19, 2017 Page 6

7 Others Danish Energy Agency July 19, 2017 Page 7

8 The purpose of the TC method to make energy technology data Technology data that can be used for comparisons of different energy technologies that is general accepted of high quality and made in a transparent process and To ensure that the different groups working with energy models in Denmark use the same technology data July 19, 2017 Danish Energy Agency Page 8

9 Purpose of Danish CT To ensure fair competition between the different technologies in analysis and scenarios to make it easier to compare results from different energy models. Danish Energy Agency July 19, 2017 Page 9

10 Guidelines/Instructions To ensure consistency and comparability of data for different technologies and the consistency of the qualitative chapters and the transparency of the data. - Detailed definitions of the parameters e.g. what is included in the efficiency, in the investments cost, in O&M cost, at what temperature is district heating delivered and returned. - How to write the qualitative sections The relatively detailed guideline should also help the model makers on how the data could be used in their model Danish Energy Agency July 19, 2017 Page 10

11 Overview of categories of energy technology data in the catalogues Electricity and District Heating Individual Heating Plants Conversion of biomass (and other RE) to bio fuels Vehicle technologies (cars, trucks, busses, trains and planes) Catalogues in proces Hydrogen technologies Grids ( el, gas and heat) Energy Storage At the moment partly included in other catalogues Danish Energy Agency July 19, 2017 Page 11

12 The qualitative part of the technology chapters Qualitative description (should be short and not detailed) Brief technology description Input Output Typical capacities Space requirement Regulation ability and other power system services Advantages/disadvantages Environment Examples of market standard technology Research and development perspectives Prediction of performance and costs Uncertainty Additional remarks References

13 What to cover in TCs? Quantitative description Data Sheet Data for 2015, 2020, 2030 and 2050 To be included direct in the databases for the modelling / analyses Notes References

14 Technology 09 Biomass CHP,Small steam turbine, Woodchips Uncertainty Uncertainty Note Ref (2020) (2050) Energy/technical data Lower Upper Lower Upper Generating capacity for one unit (MW e ) Electricity efficiency (condensation mode for extraction plants), net (%), name plate Electricity efficiency (condensation mode for extraction plants), net (%), annual average A Cb coefficient (50 o C/100 o C) Cv coefficient (50 o C/100 o C) NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA J Forced outage (%) G 1+5 Planned outage (weeks per year) H 5 Technical lifetime (years) Construction time (years) Space requirement (1000m2/MW th ) Regulation ability Primary regulation (% per 30 seconds) K 5 Secondary regulation (% per minute) Minimum load (% of full load) Warm start-up time (hours) Cold start-up time (hours) Environment SO x desulphuring (%) D 3+6 NO X (g per GJ fuel) E 7 CH 4 (g per GJ fuel) F 3;2;2;2 N 2 O (g per GJ fuel) F 3;2;2;2 Financial data Nominal investment (M /MW e ) B of which equipment H - of which installation H Fixed O&M ( /MW e /year) 110, ,000 99,000 94, , , , ,000 I Variable O&M ( /MW e h) I Danish Energy Agency July 19, 2017 Page 14 Technology specific data Fixed O&M ( /MW/year) -Total O&M 157, , , , , , , ,000 C 1

15 How is the data in the TC provided; 2015 data - From specific projects recently build /contracted - National register /statistics - Expert assessments - National studies /surveys - International studies/ /surveys Danish Energy Agency July 19, 2017 Page 15

16 Marked standard not BAT Market standards (if established): - performance and cost data of recent installed versions of the technology in Denmark or the most similar countries in relation to the specific technology in Northern Europe for the 2015 estimates. Danish Energy Agency July 19, 2017 Page 16

17 Bottom up metode - braking down the investment cost example offshore wind 17% Figure 6: Breakdown of costs for offshore wind farms [ref. 19, 20, 21]. The cost of environmental assessment is a part of the Planning & development and financing cost component Danish Energy Agency July 19, 2017 Page 17

18 Economy of scale The cost of one unit for larger plants is usually less than that for one unit for smaller plants C 1 C 2 = P 1 P 2 a C n = Investment cost of plant n (e.g. in million EUR) Pn = Power generation capacity of plant n (e.g. in MW) a = Proportionality factor, typical value The plants should essentially be identical, only significant difference is in size

19 Energy efficiency Technical experts National register Data through international sources, e.g. IEA Evaluation in relation to national context. Danish Energy Agency July 19, 2017 Page 19

20 Notes Notes are made to add further detail to data Notes is important to ensure transparency especially if references not used directly Danish Energy Agency July 19, 2017 Page 20

21 Data for 2020, 2030 and 2050 Prediction of future data Aiming at no empty cells, prefer the same wrong guess

22 Data for 2020, 2030 and 2050 Prediction of efficiencies, few and not well established methods Two approaches: Expert judgements especially for identifying barriers Reference technologies giving upper and lower limits

23 Data for 2020, 2030 and 2050 Prediction of costs: Examples of methodes Simple learning curve (with fixed yearly improvement) bottom-up approaches expert judgements

24 Simple learning curve approach

25

26 Examples of rapid not predictiable changes in technology data Hvornår skal vi reagere - Vurdering er det enlig svale eller tendes Energistyrelsen 19. juli 2017 Side 26

27 Examples of rapid not predictiable changes in technology data Hvornår skal vi reagere - Vurdering er det enlig svale eller tendes X Krigers Flak Energistyrelsen 19. juli 2017 Side 27

28 Example of lack in the capacity of making predictions PV Large ground mounted Danish Energy Agency July 19, 2017 Page 28

29 Example of lack in the capacity of making predictions Off shore wind Danish Energy Agency July 19, 2017 Page 29

30 The steps in the process to develop and maintain Energy Technology Catalogue Identify relevant technology get valid data especially in terms of costs and efficiencies for now and for the future Get acceptance of data Danish Energy Agency July 19, 2017 Page 30

31 Organisation around the TC work Reference group: -Energy branch org. -TC users -Researchers and industry DEA/TSO Project leader Steering committee Tech. 1: DEA Task leader Consultant Tech. spec. ref. group Tech. 2: TSO Task leader Consultant Tech. spec. ref. group

32 The process for making Danish TCs 1. Formulation of TC guideline to ensure uniformity of the descriptions of the different technologies data and in some extent between technology categories. 2. Making the first draft of the Data collection, writing the text (Technology experts and ) 3. Deep dive workshop with technology experts and stakeholders resulting in a 2. draft 4. Public hearing of the technology chapters of the TCs to validate data and ensure acceptance 5. Revision of data and text 6. Publication 7. Updating back to 1(or 2).

33 Improving data quality and comparation Tools to compare between technologies and with data from last version in a systematic way have been introduced ( kind of quality assurance) Danish Energy Agency July 19, 2017 Page 33

34 Who is the best to make the TC Energy technology experts (expert in the specific technology) Energy consultants(technical) using energy models themselve Danish Energy Agency July 19, 2017 Page 34

35 The value of international foreign TCs TCs can be used in other contexts, but: May not be accepted by stakeholders Costs of installations are likely to be different Technology preferences may differ May not include the relevant technologies But a cooperation is seen as beneficial for all

36 Other Technologi catalogs? - possible cooperation? IRENA IEA-NEA JRC Ecofys NVE (Norway) ELFORSK Sweden Frauenhofer Danish Energy Agency July 19, 2017 Page 36

37 Thank you Rikke Næraa The Danish Energy Technology catalogues is public available and can be found: https ://ens.dk/en/our-services/projections-andmodels/technology-data. Danish Energy Agency July 19, 2017 Page 37

38 Details of some of the parameters -Environment in the data sheet Harmful emissions to air: SOx degree of desulphuring (%) NOX (=NO2 + NO) (g per GJ fuel) PM2.5, P10, (g per GJ fuel) Greenhouse gas emissions CH4 (g per GJ fuel) N2O (g per GJ fuel) BC (g per GJ fuel) CO 2 emission values are not stated, as these depend only on the fuel, not the technology. Danish Energy Agency July 19, 2017 Page 38

39 Details of some of the parameters - Operation and maintenance (O&M) costs Fixed O&M cost ( /MW/year): e.g. administration, operational staff, service agreements, property tax, insurance. Variable O&M costs ( /MWh): e.g. consumption of auxiliary materials (water, lubricants, fuel additives), treatment and disposal of residuals, spare parts Fuel costs are not included. Danish Energy Agency July 19, 2017 Page 39

40 Example of the Danish process when a the specific technology have been chosen Detailed overview of the process week number 1 The conclusion of agreements and contracts 2 Start-up meeting on possible joint instruction session if more technologies at same time 3-7 consultants working -dialog with the consultant about external participants for the deep dive workshop (DD WS) -sending Invitations to external participants in deep dive workshop (DD WS) 8-9 Internal review - internal agreement on which changes should be made before the first draft could be send out Consultant incorporates internal adjustments 14 First draft is sent to participants in WS 15 External deep dive workshop (DD WS) 15 the participating in WS is given a week to send in aditional coomments 16 Consultants adjust according to discussions and conclusions on WS and the comments submitted later(if in accordance with the conclusions at the WS) 17 Internal quick check of new versions of the chapters and sending out for external consultation The 2. draft is send out for external review Internal review of comments, dialog between consultants and ENDK and ENS. Agreement on which changes is included and how Consultants adjust the document according to the agreed 25 Last reading and publication RMH(SLP) Udarbejdsels af teknologi katalog for net el, gas og fv(endk)

41 Choice of technologies Two approaches Stakeholder approach Analytical approach

42 Choice of technologies Stakeholder approach Which to include: Users of the TCs Researchers Industry Danish Energy Agency July 19, 2017 Page 42

43 Choice of technologies Analytical approach : Step 1: Identify technologies on the basis of inputs and outputs Feedstocks Sugar cane Ethanol Methanol Butanol HVO FAME Syn/FT diesel Straw BK (2) Residues forrest BK (2) TK(2) Algee TK(2) 5 TK(2) Corn stover BK (2),5 TK(2) TK(2) Bagasse BK (2) TK(2) Cellucosic residues (TK(2)) (TK(2)) (TK(2)) TK(2) BK(3) Miscanthus BK (2) Paper waste

44 Choice of technologies Analytical approach : Step 2:Identify relevant technologies based on needs..

45 Choice of technologies Analytical approach : Step 3: Identify feedstocks

46 Choice of technologies Other potential filters : Location of feedstocks, consumers and infrastructure Industrial branches to be prioritised Certain knowhow to be utilised/supported Identify shortlist

47 Experience curves

48 Experience curves cumulative production

49 Experience curves - data Use other technologies as proxy Compare with cost level for cheaper/more expensive technologies