The Optimal Technological Development Path to Reduce Pollution and Restructure Iron and Steel Industry for Sustainable Transition

Transcription

1 Inernaonal Journal of Scence and Engneerng Invesgaons vol. 7, ssue 73, February 2018 ISSN: The Opmal Technologcal Developmen Pah o Reduce Polluon and Resrucure Iron and Seel Indusry for Susanable Transon Mng Ren 1, Xangyang Xu 2, Taana Ermoleva 3, Gu-yng Cao 4, Yur Yermolev 5 1,2 Cener for Resource and Envronmenal Polcy Research, School of Managemen, Chna Unversy of Mnng and Technology, Beng, Chna 3,4,5 Inernaonal Insue for Appled Sysems Analyss, Laxenburg, Ausra ( 1 renmng789@126.com, 2 xxy@cumb.edu.cn, 3 ermol@asa.ac.a, 4 cao@asa.ac.a, 5 ermolev@asa.ac.a) Absrac- Chna s he world s larges ron and seel producer and Jng-Jn-J (Beng-Tanjn-Hebe) regon accouns for nearly 1/3 of he naonal ron and seel producon, whle s facng serous ar polluon. Among he op 10 wors pollued ces n Chna, seven were locaed n Hebe provnce n Recen years Jng-Jn-J regon has been promoed ron & seel ndusry wh green clean echnology for accelerang susanable economc ranson. Ths paper res o response he basc quesons: How can we reduce polluon and resrucure he ron and seel ndusry for susanable economc ranson n Jng-Jn-J? How can he ron-seel ndusry acheve s 13h fve year plan arges? How does s oulook look lke n he nex 10 years? For he analyss, we develop a dynamc opmzaon model o explore he opmal echnologcal developmen pah of ron and seel ndusry under he envronmen (CO 2, SO 2, NO x, and PM 2.5 ) n combng wh overcapacy reducon arges over he nex 10 years. The resuls show ha ncreasng capacy of scrap-eaf and DRI- EAF echnologes can sgnfcanly co-decrease CO 2, SO 2, NO x and PM 2.5 by 50%, 60%, 57%, and 62% respecvely. The opmal echnologcal porfolo ndcaes ha he producon share of EAF echnology wll ncrease wh he poenal ncrease rends of scrap volumes. The paper ndcaes ha n Chna, ron and seel producon shf from BOF o EAF echnology s an opmal way for lower energy/co 2 and ar polluans emssons, and for ron and seel ndusry ranson o green and susanable developmen. The paper argues ha reducng ron and seel producon volume does no mean soppng ron and seel ndusry developmen, bu low-carbon and green developmen n he ron & seel ndusry, can acheve he goal for susanable ranson n he regon. Keywords-Iron and Seel Indusry, Polluon and Emsson, Opmal Technologcal Porfolo, Dynamc Opmzaon Model I. INTRODUCTION Chna, he world s larges seel producon area, s facng serous ar polluon problems, especally n Jng-Jn-J regon. Of he op 10 wors pollued ces n Chna, seven were locaed n Hebe provnce n 2014[1]. Ar polluon s affecng healh and qualy of lfe n hs regon. The ron and seel producon of Jng-Jn-J accouns for nearly 1/3 of Chna s ron and seel producon [2], whch s a man energy consumer and one of major ar polluon sources n he regon. In 2014, he emssons of SO2, NOx, and dus from ron and seel ndusry accouned for 27.75%, 13.56% and 17.17% of oal ndusral emssons n Jng-Jn-J regon [3]. Gven he mporance of hs ndusral secor, he Chnese governmen has ssued a seres of polces and regulaons ams o elmnae backward and excess capacy[4], nroduce advanced echnologes wh lower energy/co 2 [5] and ar polluans [6] emsson, and encourage ron and seel ndusry ranson o green and susanable developmen. The Jng-Jn-J regon s he sea of Chna s cenral governmen, one of he fases-growng urban areas, and one of he mos mporan ndusral zones n Chna has he poenal o dramacally reduce emssons and lead he way for Chna s naonwde ransformaon oward a more susanable economc model. Jng-Jn-J regon s well-posoned o become a model for he res of he counry, and poenally for he globe. The man reasons are: he regon s sze, dverse economc mx, and srong polcy and regulaory envronmen conrbue o s poenal o ranson s economy; Hebe Provnce, currenly he mos ndusral par of he regon, has exsng manufacurng nfrasrucure and srong wnd and solar resources ha could provde he bass for a sgnfcan ncrease n clean, renewable energy producon and deploymen. How can we reduce polluon and resrucure he ron and seel ndusry for susanable economc ranson n Jng-Jn-J Regon? The paper argues ha reducng ron and seel producon volume does no mean soppng ron and seel ndusry developmen, bu crcular, low-carbon, and green developmen n he ron & seel ndusry, so ha can acheve he goal of ranson o green and low-carbon ron-seel ndusry n he regon. As Chna s producs and nfrasrucure ener he replacemen phase, he growng avalably of scrap s lkely o 100

2 fuel a shf from seelmakng based on oxygen furnace (BOF) echnology o elecrc arc furnace (EAF) echnology ha reles more heavly on scrap. Wh he ncrease supply of scrap and naural gas, scrap based EAF echnology and naural gas-based DRI echnology can be nroduced as clean producon roues, whch have poenally lower envronmenal fooprn. Relance on elecrcy and naural gas as cleaner and cheaper sources of energy can lead n he shor- and n he long-run o sgnfcan mprovemen of envronmenal qualy whou sacrfcng profs. Wh am o explore how o reduce polluon and resrucure he ron and seel ndusry for susanable economc ranson n Jng-Jn-J Regon over he nex 10 years, hs paper focus on he echnology nnovaons and her dffuson pahs under he envronmenal and resource effcency performance arges under resrucurng of Iron and Seel ndusry process. We develop a dynamc opmzaon model, whch ncludes curren and fuure advanced alernave ron and seel producon echnologes along wh envronmen (CO 2, SO 2, NO x, and PM 2.5 ) and overcapacy reducon arges. The srucure of he paper s as follows. Followng he nsrucon, secon 2 dealed analyss of echnology nnovaon rends and sraegc oulook n resrucure he ron and seel ndusry; Secon 3 descrbes he framework of he model and daa; Secon 4 presens he resuls and dscusson. Secon 5 summarzes he conclusons. II. BACKGROUND A. Technology nnovaon rends I s dffcul o furher decrease he energy, consumpon, CO 2 and ar polluans emssons, f he seel and ron ndusry does no nroduce novel breakhrough echnologes. The mprovemen of energy effcency as well as he complance wh envronmenal sandards s possble only hrough he nroducon of alernave cleaner ron and seel producon roues based on scrap or naural gas, whch are expeced o play an ncreasngly sgnfcan role n he ron and seel ndusry[7]. Currenly, here are wo man roues of echnologes) for ron and seel producon n Chna. In Jng-Jn-J regon, he share of BF-BOF and EAF are 99% and 1% respecvely [8]. The lqud seel obaned hrough boh roues s cas no sems and furher processed n mlls. Apar from blas furnace (BF), alernave echnologes for ronmakng s naural gas based drec ron ore reducon (DRI) echnology, and hen he ron ore reducon can be fed o EAF. The curren exsng BF-BOF and EAF echnologes and he advanced fuure DRI echnology s lsed n able I and able II, whch shows dfferen composon of raw maerals, energy consumpon nensy, ar emsson nensy and cos. 1) Tradonal Inegraed Iron and Seel Producon Roue BF/BOF The blas furnace-basc oxygen furnace (BF-BOF) roue s radonal ron and seel producon process, n blas furnace ron ores are reduced o meallc ron usng coke as a reducan and energy source and subsequenly convered o seel n he basc oxygen furnace (BOF). The negraed roue s based on he reducon of ron ore and reles on he use of coke, sner, blas furnaces and Basc Oxygen Furnace (BOF) converers [9]. Ths roue of ron producon ypcally nvolves he snerng of fnes, whch s he mos pollung componen of he ronmakng process [10]. 2) Elecrc Arc Furnace (EAF) Usng Recycled Seel Scrap Ths roue s called recyclng roue uses scrap as raw maeral. The man energy requremen s elecrcy, whch s used for smelng he scrap maeral. In hs process, he coke producon, pg ron producon, and seel producon seps are omed, resulng n much lower energy consumpon and a prmary energy nensy [11]. EAFs are a less energy and ar emssons nensve way of makng seel [12]. However, prospecve reducons by shfng from BOF o Elecrc Arc Furnace (EAF) s confned by he scrap avalably and s qualy. 3) Drec Reducon Iron- Elecrc Arc Furnace (DRI- EAF) One alernave mehod for ronmakng are based on drec ron ore reducon (DRI) echnologes where he coke makng requremen s avoded and ron ores are reduced drecly o sponge ron n a shaf furnace wh eher coal gas or naural gas (va hydrogen and/or CO) as he reducan, he sponge ron and seel scrap s hen meled n an elecrc arc furnace n order o oban crude seel [13]. Globally, naural gas s wdely preferred and used n he leadng processes Mdrex. For Jng- Jn-J regon of Chna, DRI echnology can be nroduced as naural gas avalably s ncreasng, and he Chnese governmen s encouragng ron and seel ndusry o ncrease he share of naural gas n energy srucure. Based on he ncreasng supply of scrap [14], he share of Elecrc Arc Furnace (EAF) seel producon wll ncrease sgnfcanly o 30% n Wh he ncrease supply of naural gas and serous ar polluon n Jng-Jn-J regon, Chnese governmen s encouragng ron and seel secor o adjus s energy srucure and ncrease he share of naural gas o 15% n 2020 and 20% n 2025[13]. TABLE I. THE ENVIRONMENT INDEXES OF DIFFERENT IRON AND STEEL PRODUCTION ROUTES. Emsson nensy of dfferen ron and seel producon roues Roues resource/emssons Un emsson nensy BF/BOF Scrap-EAF DRI-EAF CO 2 /on seel 2.10 SO 2 kg/on seel 1.21 NOx kg/on seel 0.83 PM 2.5 kg/on seel 1.59 CO 2 /on seel 0.70 SO 2 kg/on seel 7.40*10 (-4) NOx kg/on seel 0.04 PM 2.5 kg/on seel 3.00*10 (-3) CO 2 /on seel 1.10 SO 2 kg/on seel 0.19 NOx kg/on seel 0.24 PM 2.5 kg/on seel 0.08 Inernaonal Journal of Scence and Engneerng Invesgaons, Volume 7, Issue 73, February

3 TABLE II. THE RAW MATERIALS AND ENERGY CONSUMPTION INTENSITY OF DIFFERENT IRON AND STEEL PRODUCTION ROUTES. Raw maerals/ energy nensy of dfferen seel roues Roues Raw maerals/energy Un Raw maerals/energy nensy BF/BOF Scrap-EAF DRI-EAF Coal GJ/ 14.9 elecrcy GJ/ 0.90 Naural gas GJ/ 0.00 scrap / 0.00 Iron ore / 1.44 Coal GJ/ 2.20 elecrcy GJ/ 1.80 Naural gas GJ/ 0.00 scrap / 1.00 Iron ore / 0.00 Coal GJ/ 0.00 elecrcy GJ/ 1.00 Naural gas GJ/ scrap / 0.00 Iron ore / 1.44 and scrap and naural gas avalably. The opmzaon model enables he adopon and operaon of ron and seel producon echnology n Beng, Tanjn, and Hebe under he consrans of scrap, naural gas avalably, and CO 2, SO 2, NO x, and PM 2.5 reducon arges o mee he seel demand wh mnmum coss. Ths model can offer he alernave opons for decson makng on nvesmens and operaon of echnologes. The model srucure s shown n Fgure 1, whch ncludes dynamc opmzaon module, and npu & oupu. Resource and envronmen daabase 1. Scrap and naural gas avalably 2. Emssons consrans (CO2, SO2, ec.) 3. Energy ype (Coal, elecrcy, naural gas) 4. Energy and resource prce 5. CO2 and ar polluans prce Inpu Technology daabase 1. Energy and resource consumpon nensy 2. CO2 and ar polluans emsson nensy 3. Share 4. Invesmen cos Economc scenaro 1. Producon daa from he 13 h Fve- Year plan and he predcon for 14 h plan B. Sraegc oulook owards o lower energy consumpon and reducng emssons In recen years he governmen has adoped src measures o reduce he overcapacy n ron and seel ndusry. Hebe [15] promsed o cu crude seel capacy o less han 200 mllon on by he end of Seel capacy n Beng wll be removed gradually. Tanjn plans o cu s seel capacy o less han 17 mllon on by he end of Regardng o he near fuure sraegc oulook owards o lower energy consumpon and emssons, and hen we combne wo pars up o 2025: he 13h Fve-Year Plan o 2020, and we assume ha he 14h plan wll followng he pah of he 13h plan up o Boh of he plan and scenaro have wo dmensons: producon and envronmenal arges. The seel oupu n 2020 and 2025 are predced o be and mllon on, respecvely Jng-Jn-J regon. Adjusmen and upgradng plan for ron and seel ndusry ( ) saes ha durng he 13h Fve-Year Plan oal ar emsson wll decrease 15%, and sulfur doxde emssons per on seel wll decrease by 20%. Durng , we se oal SO 2, NOx and PM 2.5 emsson wll decrease by 15%, 15%, and 20% every fve years, respecvely. III. METHODOLOGY A. Parameers and srucure of dynamc opmzaon module Based on he 13h fve year plan and he assumed 14h fve year plan for he ron and seel ndusry n Jng-jn-j regon, we analyss he opmal echnologcal developmen pah of ron and seel ndusry for he nex 10 years, and develop a dynamc negraed modelng framework by usng lnear programng mehodology. The model ncludes curren and fuure advanced ron and seel producon echnologes along wh comprehensve consrans on energy and envronmenal (CO 2, SO 2, NO x, and PM 2.5 ), whle combne producon reducng plan Fgure 1. The dynamc opmzaon model srucure B. Mahemacal funcon The model s esablshed based on he lnear programng mehodology, ndex sands for he ron and seel producon echnologes, =1,,n. Indexes j and k denfy ron and seel producon locaons, for example, Beng, Tanjn, and Hebe, and m s he number of ron and seel producon locaons (n hs sudy m=3); denoes smulaon me nerval, =1,,T, he plannng (modelng) me horzon s from 2015 o 2025 wh a 5-years me sep; varables x defne newly nroduced capacy of echnology n regon j a me ; varables y defne operaonal decson on how much of k seel s produced by echnology n regon j and ranspored o regon k a me. The objecve funcon s represened n (1), ncludng he nvesmen cos and he operaonal cos mn xy, Dynamc opmzaon module Objecve Mn (nvesmen cos+ operaonal cos) Consrans Resource consrans (scrap, naural gas) Envronmen consrans (CO 2, SO 2, NO x, PM 2.5) Seel capacy should mee seel demand Technology nvesmen level Oupu T n m m c x q y k k 1 1 j1 k =1 Technology producon level (1) Inernaonal Journal of Scence and Engneerng Invesgaons, Volume 7, Issue 73, February

4 c s he un nvesmen cos of echnology n regon j a me ; q s he operaonal cos of echnology o produce un of k seel produce n regon j and ranspor o regon k a me, he operaonal cos ncludes raw maeral (ron ore, scrap) cos, energy (coal, naural gas, and elecrcy) cos, emsson (CO 2, SO 2, NO x, and PM 2.5 ) cos, ransporaon cos, and he operaonal cos can be calculaed based on consumpon nensy, emsson nensy, and ransporaon dsance mulply by her prces. The cumulave capacy of echnology n regon j a me s denoed by S. Formula (2) presens he dynamc changes of cumulave capacy: 1 L S S x x 1,, n, 1,, T L s he lfe me of echnology (seel facly) ; 0 S s nal capacy of echnology exsen before =1 The model use exogenous seel demand. The seel demand n each regon k, a me s me by producng n j and mporng o k of consrans on seel producon (2) y uns of seel. Formula (3) defnes he k m n y d (3) k k j1 1 d s seel demand n regon k a me. k Consrans (4) and (5) mean ha seel producon canno exceed seel producon capacy of echnology n regon j and me, m k 1 y S k j 1,, m y 0 (5) k, 1 1 deermnes he avalably facor of echnology n regon j a me characerzng he acual producon of seel (4) by echnology. Obvously 0 for no ye exsng echnologes. Each echnology s characerzed by s se of npu-oupu (converson) coeffcens a, whch defne he amoun of npu, r resources of ype r (r=1, 2 sand for scrap and naural gas respecvely) o produce one un of produc (seel) by echnology (=1,, m)) n regon j a me ; R s resource j, r avalably of r n regon j a me. For resource supply, he supply of scrap and naural gas are lmed. So he consran on resource avalably n regon j a me consdered and expressed as Eqs. (6) m n a y R (6), r k j, r k1 1 In order o ackle clmae change and reduce ar polluon, Chnese governmen has se CO2 reducon arge and oal ar polluans (CO2, SO2, NOx, or PM2.5) reducon arges for ron and seel ndusry. The ar emsson arges consran s shown as Eqs. (7) m n, g, g* ER y ( ) Em (7) k j k1 1, ER g s emsson rae of g by echnology a me ;, g * Em s emsson arge g= sand for CO j 2, SO 2, NO x, and PM 2.5 respecvely. C. Prces of feedsock, nvesmen cos, and emssons accounng 1) Prces of feedsock The man feedsock of alernave ron and seel producon roues are ron ore, scrap, coal, elecrcy, and naural gas. In 2015, he prce of ron ore [16] was 74$/on, coal prce [17] $/ GJ, scrap [18] prce $/ on, elecrcy prce [19] $/ GJ, naural gas [20] prce $/ GJ. 2) Invesmen coss In 2015, he nvesmen cos of BF/BOF, scrap based EAF, and DRI-EAF were , , and $ per on seel every year respecvely [21]. 3) Oher cos and prces In 2015, he prce of CO 2, SO 2, NO x, and PM 2.5 were , , and $ per klogram respecvely [22]. Transporaon cos was 0.49 $ per klomeer per on seel n Technology lfe s assumed o be 20 years [23]. The basc year prce s based on 2015, and hen we consder an ncrease of 15% per year for all he prces and nvesmen coss. Inernaonal Journal of Scence and Engneerng Invesgaons, Volume 7, Issue 73, February

5 IV. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION A. Opmal echnology developmen rends The dynamc opmzaon model resul for echnology pahs s shown n Fgure 2. Because of hgh nvesmen coss, CO2 and ar emssons nensy, he radonal negraed BF/BOF roue s gradually replaced by alernave echnologes. The shares of scrap-eaf roue and DRI-EAF roue slowly ncrease. The peneraon raes of scrap-eaf roue are 20% and 28% n 2020 and 2025 respecvely, whch are lmed by he scrap avalably. The peneraon raes of DRI- EAF roue are 9% and 12% n 2020 and 2025 respecvely. So, scrap-eaf roue s more cos-effecve wh lower nvesmen cos and beer envronmen performance. Wh he srcer envronmen consrans naural gas based DRI-EAF roue wll be nroduced, however for he hgh naural gas prce hs roue develops raher slowly. Fgure 2. Technology developmen pahway of he ron and seel ndusry Fgure 3. Ar emssons n Jng-Jn-J regon B. Downward rend of emssons when promong he green Technologes Fgure 3 ndcaes ar emssons n Jng Jn J regon, whch showng a clear downward rend over he nex 10 years. CO 2 emsson n 2015, 2020 and 2025 are 0.46, 0.34 and 0.23 bllon on respecvely. By 2025, 50% CO 2 emsson wll be saved compared wh SO 2 emsson durng n Jng Jn J regon shows a clear downward rend durng SO 2 emsson n 2015, 2020 and 2025 are 0.37, 0.24 and 0.15 mllon on respecvely. By 2025, 60% SO 2 emsson wll be saved compared wh NOx emsson n 2015, 2020 and 2025 are , and housand on respecvely. By 2025, 57% NO x emsson wll be saved compared wh PM 2.5 emsson n 2015, 2020 and 2025 are , , and housand on respecvely. By 2025, 62% PM 2.5 emsson wll be reduced compared wh One reason s ha he oupu of seel n Jng-Jn-J regon wll decrease 37% n he plannng horzon. Anoher reason s he nroducon of alernave echnologes lke scrap based EAF echnology and DRI-EAF echnology, whch have lower PM 2.5 and oher ar emssons nensy. V. CONCLUSIONS Iron and seel ndusry s one of he bgges energy consumers and ar emsson sources. I s dffcul o furher decrease he energy, consumpon, ar polluans and emssons, f he seel and ron ndusry does no nroduce novel breakhrough echnologes n Jng-Jn-J regon. Inernaonal Journal of Scence and Engneerng Invesgaons, Volume 7, Issue 73, February

6 Wh an negraed manner, we buld a dynamc opmzaon model o explore he opmzaon echnology pahs for susanable ron and seel growh, whch ams o mee he hgh sandards for coal conrol, low carbon, and emsson reducon for Jng-Jn-J regon up o The opmal echnology pahway s endogenously deermned based on cos mnmzaon crera under hree dmensons: 1) emssons reducon arges; 2) scrap and naural gas avalably; and 3) producon oupu. Our resuls show ha decreasng CO 2, SO 2, NO x, and PM 2.5 emssons can be collecvely conrolled n ron and seel ndusry, f he Jng-Jn-J regon ncreases he Scrap- EAF and DRI-EAF roes n he ron and seel producon process. Reducng ron and seel producon volume does no mean for soppng ron and seel ndusry developmen, bu s for developmen of crcular, low-carbon and green developmen n he ron & seel ndusry. The key remarks are ncluded: In he nex 10 o 15 years, he ncrease supply of scrap and naural gas are lkely o fuel a shf from seelmakng based on basc oxygen furnace (BOF) echnology o elecrc arc furnace (EAF) echnology and DRI echnology, whch have lower envronmenal fooprn and lower nvesmen cos. However, her dffuson reles on scarp and naural gas avalables and her prces. Under srcer ar polluon and clmae change consrans, he negraed BF-BOF roue wll be replaced gradually o a ceran exen for s hgh CO 2 and ar polluans emssons. By comparng cos o produce one on seel of he hree dfferen roue we can fnd ha he cos of scrap based EAF roue s he lowes. The Scrap based EAF roue no only has he lowes envronmenal fooprn bu has he lowes cos. The cos of naural gas based DEI-EAF roue s hgher han he radonal BF-BOF roue, n whch reles on he prce of naural gas ha hgher han coal, however he naural gas based DEI-EAF roue has lower envronmenal fooprn, so under he src consrans of ar polluon emsson hs roue wll be nroduced n he fuure. To wha exen s he regon ready o allow he seel ndusry o make he swch from BOF o EAF? Perhaps he bgges challenge for he scrap ndusry les n radeoff decson beween he prof and envronmenal proecon and wllngness o make he shf o EAF echnology. In parcular o Hebe provnce, prorzes ron and seel ndusry, especally n renewable energy and energy effcency snce hese ndusres have srong growh and job creaon poenal. Bu gven he regon s hgh local demand, excellen wnd and solar resources and good ransmsson connecon o neghborng regons, ha he provnce can benef economcally and envronmenally from greaer nvesmen n wnd and solar. 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