Why Buildings Matter and the Business Case for Energy Efficiency. R. Christopher Mathis MC2 - Mathis Consulting Company

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2 Why Buildings Matter and the Business Case for Energy Efficiency R. Christopher Mathis MC2 - Mathis Consulting Company

3 SSEB Mission: To enhance economic development and the quality of life in the South through innovations in energy and environmental policies, programs and technologies.

4 Who Am I? Building Scientist (35+ years) Energy performance of buildings and products Utility and business implications Author, Educator Books, technical papers, training classes on building performance, insulation, understanding source energy, window performance, peak power, etc. Energy Codes and Standards Developer National and state energy codes WNC Beekeeper 2/23/2015 MC2 - Mathis Consulting Company Page 4

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6 The End in Mind Buildings Matter! More than we know Trends Impacting Our Region Energy, Power, Water, People, etc. The Business Case for Energy Efficient Buildings Focusing greater utility and ally engagement in shaping building energy policy in our region 2/23/2015 MC2 - Mathis Consulting Company Page 6

7 Buildings Matter: US Energy Use Transportation 31% 18% Commercial Buildings 41% 22% Residential Industry 28% Source: USEIA /23/2015 MC2 - Mathis Consulting Company 7

8 U.S. Energy Consumption Source: USEIA /23/2015 MC2 - Mathis Consulting Company Page 8

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10 Growth of Residential AC % 90% 93% 97% 100% 93% 80% 70% 60% 69% 75% 50% 40% 30% 35% 41% 49% 20% 10% 0% 14% Northeast Midwest South West US Total Source: US Census /23/2015 MC2 - Mathis Consulting Company 10

11 Heat Pumps are Everywhere 2/23/2015 MC2 - Mathis Consulting Company 11

12 Utility Concerns: Meeting the Demand Peak Loads Cooling Driven Simultaneous Heating Especially now Lighting Plug Loads kw Peak Demand $$$$ Peak Demand surcharge Base Load /23/2015 MC2 - Mathis Consulting Company 12 $$$ $$ $ h

13 Regional Peak Power News 2/23/2015 MC2 - Mathis Consulting Company 13

14 More Regional News 2/23/2015 MC2 - Mathis Consulting Company 14

15 And more Today's power peak this morning was just above 26,000 megawatts when temperatures in the 7-state region averaged a low of 20 degrees Fahrenheit Colder weather predicted Wednesday night and early Thursday could easily push power demand above 30,000 megawatts. 2/23/2015 MC2 - Mathis Consulting Company 15

16 Coincident Demand: Summer & Winter Heating Like this past week Cooling Driven by building demand 2/23/2015 MC2 - Mathis Consulting Company Page 16

17 The Energy Megatrend Growing demand More Simultaneous demand Peak power issues Energy security Enough for us? Reliability? Economic security Our economy? World economy?

18 Homes Have Changed 2/23/2015 MC2 - Mathis Consulting Company 18

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20 Homes Have Changed 100% 90% New Single Family Homes with Air Conditioning 93% 80% 70% 60% 50% 49% 40% Source: US Census /23/2015 MC2 - Mathis Consulting Company Page 20

21 Growth of Residential AC % 90% 93% 97% 100% 93% 80% 70% 60% 69% 75% 50% 40% 30% 35% 41% 49% 20% 10% 0% 14% Northeast Midwest South West US Total Source: US Census /23/2015 MC2 - Mathis Consulting Company 21

22 U.S. Energy Production Renewables 12% Coal Nuclear 21% 46% Oil 1% Natural Gas 20% Source: USEIA /23/2015 MC2 - Mathis Consulting Company 22

23 Projections on the Future? 2/23/2015 MC2 - Mathis Consulting Company 23

24 Quadrillion Btu World Energy Consumption by Fuel Source: USEIA /23/2015 MC2 - Mathis Consulting Company 24

25 The Energy Megatrend Increasing demand Supply challenges Peak power Energy security Economic security

26 Utility Concerns The Timing of our Demand Base Load Peak Demand Cooling Driven Lighting Driven kw Peak Demand $$$$ Peak Demand $$$ surcharge $$ Base Load $ h 2/23/2015 MC2 - Mathis Consulting Company Page 26

27 Energy and Water US News, 11/22/2012 2/23/2015 MC2 - Mathis Consulting Company 27

28 Water Implications US Geological Survey /23/2015 MC2 - Mathis Consulting Company 28

29 Power and Water US thermoelectric facilities use over 200 billion gallons of water a day. Over half of the withdrawn water in the US Electricity Irrigation Drinking Sources: Union of Concerned Scientists 2011, USGS /23/2015 MC2 - Mathis Consulting Company Page 29

30 Annual Net Migration Florida 190,894 Arizona Nevada Georgia North Carolina Texas Virginia South Carolina Tennessee 66,344 50,803 41,298 39,137 36,566 20,535 18,576 16,634 Washington 13,354 2/23/2015 MC2 - Mathis Consulting Company 30

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33 US Commercial Buildings 74% was built 19% before 1989! 7% Before % 1990 to to % of our commercial building stock was built before 2003! Source: USEIA, 2003 CBECS 2/23/2015 MC2 - Mathis Consulting Company 33

34 Commercial Buildings Common Issues: Insulation in walls? Insulation on roof? Windows? Common Assets? Good Bones Existing Infrastructure Location Air sealing? Heating systems? Cooling systems? Lighting systems? 2/23/2015 MC2 - Mathis Consulting Company 34

35 Building Component Life Expectancy Building Measure USDOE NAHB NIBS Insulation Windows Furnace, Forced Air Unit Heaters, Gas or Electric Heat Pump Air Conditioner Central Air Window Unit Electric Water Heater Gas Water Heater Gas Range Electric Range Gas Oven Washer Dryer, Electric or Gas Refrigerator-Standard Freezer-Standard /23/2015 MC2 - Mathis Consulting Company Page 35

36 Audience Survey: For How Long? Your House? One of Your Parent s Home s? Grandparents? ~ 100 years! 2/23/2015 MC2 - Mathis Consulting Company Page 36

37 U.S. Residential Buildings 1% New Existing 99% Source: USEIA 2009 RECS 2/23/2015 MC2 - Mathis Consulting Company 37

38 Age of U.S. Homes 30% Built % Built Before 1989 Source: USEIA 2009 RECS 2/23/2015 MC2 - Mathis Consulting Company 38

39 Air Leakage

40 Diagnostic Tools 2/23/2015 MC2 - Mathis Consulting Company 40

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43 ZEV FIRST Plug the Holes in the Ship! USS Buildings FIRST: Plug the Holes in the Ship!

44 Billion Square Feet U.S. Commercial Construction Over 50% new since Total New Retired Source: USEIA, /23/2015 MC2 - Mathis Consulting Company 44

45 Built Environment Trends More severe climate events Superstorms Extreme cold - Polar Vortex Extreme heat Increased expectations for building performance Energy, Durability, Health, IEQ, Resilience, etc. What is sustainable? For how long? 2/23/2015 MC2 - Mathis Consulting Company Page 45

46 But we ve got the building codes to handle that right?

47 What is the Code? Least safe Least strong Least energy efficient building allowed by law. We re not allowed to build it any crappier 2/23/2015 MC2 - Mathis Consulting Company Page 47

48 Energy Codes Have Changed Code minimum is still a long way from Net Zero 2/23/2015 MC2 - Mathis Consulting Company 48

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50 Where is Your State s Minimum Code? ASHRAE IECC 2012 IECC 2006 ASHRAE IECC 2009 ASHRAE IECC 2015 ASHRAE /23/2015 MC2 - Mathis Consulting Company 50

51 The Size of Things

52 120 million homes in US

53 Half with crappy windows 60 million homes Over 1.4 billion windows

54 What If We Replaced Windows? 2/23/2015 MC2 - Mathis Consulting Company 54

55 Heat Loss (winter) U-factor Heat Gain (summer) Solar Heat Gain Existing New Existing New Use the Worst Code-Compliant Window MC2 - Mathis Consulting Company 55 2/23/2015

56 What Would We Save? 1 to 3 Tons of Air Conditioning per house Depending on size, location, leakiness, etc. 1 ton = 12,000 Btu/hr What is 13 SEER = 13,000 Btu/kWh 60 million kw? ~1 kw of peak power savings per house ~120 million existing homes About half have lousy windows ~60 million * 1 ton * 1 kw/ton = 60 million kw 2/23/2015 MC2 - Mathis Consulting Company Page 56

57 The equivalent PEAK capacity of ~ mW power plants

58 What if Lessons from the 70 s 2/23/2015 MC2 - Mathis Consulting Company 58

59 The Rest of the Story Where do we get these building materials? 2/23/2015 MC2 - Mathis Consulting Company Page 59

60 The Rest of the Story Where do we sell them? 2/23/2015 MC2 - Mathis Consulting Company Page 60

61 The Rest of the Story Who Does the WORK? Home Builders Remodelers Air Sealing Contractors Plumbers Carpenters Window Installers HVAC Contractors Insulation Contractors Roofers Electricians 2/23/2015 MC2 - Mathis Consulting Company Page 61

62 The Rest of the Story Who Does the WORK? Home Builders Remodelers Air Sealing Contractors Plumbers Carpenters Window Installers HVAC Contractors Insulation Contractors Roofers Electricians 2/23/2015 MC2 - Mathis Consulting Company Page 62

63 Job Creation! Sustainable Business! Durable Energy Savings! Real Energy Security! THIS also helps the most people

64 Our nation s existing homes and commercial buildings are essentially millions of little power plants we ve already built but we haven t turned on! We turn them on with improved energy efficiency.

65 Opportunities Aligned with SSEB Goals Provide direct scientific and technical assistance to state governments Provide education and technical support concerning the role of buildings in state and regional energy needs/policy Develop, promote and recommend policies and programs on energy, environment and economic development that encourage sustainable development Develop and implement market transformation strategies such as tax incentives, utility incentives, etc. Adopt updated energy efficient building codes Recognize and incentivize regional and local manufacturing, delivery and installation of durable EE building products Connect building energy conservation to regional water objectives 2/23/2015 MC2 - Mathis Consulting Company 65

66 More SSEB Aligned Opportunities (2) Provide technical assistance to policy-makers and the private sector on energy, environment and economic issues that ensure energy security and supply Connect various policy-makers who are responsible for different aspects of the regulation of energy in buildings Provide education and compliance support for energy codes and market transformation programs as a regional energy supply security investment Facilitate energy and environmental policies between federal, state and local governments and the private sector Harmonize efforts by federal, state, and local policymakers to encourage energy efficient buildings 2/23/2015 MC2 - Mathis Consulting Company 66

67 More SSEB Aligned Opportunities (3) Sustain business development throughout the region by eliminating barriers to the use of efficient energy and environmental technologies Enhance existing programs targeting improved building energy performance especially long-lived building envelope improvements that are regionally or locally produced and installed Consider utility programs that more powerfully leverage the impacts from combined building efficiency measures Support improved energy efficient technologies that pollute less and contribute to a clean global environment while protecting indigenous natural resources for future generations. Support technologies that deliver long-lived building energy efficiency improvement 2/23/2015 MC2 - Mathis Consulting Company 67

68 The End in Mind Buildings Matter! More than we know Trends Impacting Our Region Energy, Power, Water, People, etc. The Business Case for Energy Efficient Buildings Focusing greater utility and ally engagement in shaping building energy policy in our region 2/23/2015 MC2 - Mathis Consulting Company Page 68

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70 The Future is in Our Hands Thank you!