Current Status of Energy in Viet Nam. Assoc. Prof. Dr. Tran Thuc Director, Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology

Transcription

1 Current Status of Energy in Viet Nam Assoc. Prof. Dr. Tran Thuc Director, Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology

2 Outline Overview Current status of the Vietnamese Energy Sector Policies, Projects and Plans Summary 2006/10/10

3 Overview of Vietnam Position: Eastern Seaboard of the Indochina Peninsula. Area: km 2. Population: > 83.5 million people. Climate and topography: - Tropical in the south; - Sub-tropical in the north. Capital: Ha Noi. 2006/10/10

4 GDP: US$ 227 billion Growth rate : 7.2% (2003); 7.7% (2004). Economy: Industry: 40%; Agriculture: 22%; Services: 38%. Role of energy sector in economy: In 2000, account for: 12% GDP; 25% government revenues; 25% exports, 13% import; US$ 261 million to State budget. 2006/10/10

5 Current status of Vietnamese Energy Sector Supply and Demand; Energy resources; Electricity generation and development plan. 2006/10/10

6 Supply and Demand Supply: Breakdown 24% Combustible of primary energy supply 54% 13% Oil Coal Gas in % 4% Hydro Total energy demand: Today: 20.8 mil. tons of oil equivalent (MToe). Anticipated: 32.3 (2010) and 60.3 (2020) MToe. 2006/10/10

7 Energy Resources Coal: 3.88 bil. tons. Oil: 2.3 bi. tons ( mil. tonst proven). Gas: 1,207-1,507 bi.m 3 (680 bil. m 3 proven). Hydropower: 120 bil. kwh. Other Resources: Geothermal, wind, solar energy, biomass, tidal and safe nuclear power.

8 Coal Reserves: 150 mil. tons. Exploited Yield: 2002: 11 mil. tons; Annual growth rate: 25%/year; 2005: 27 mil. tons, 1/3 for export; Export markets: Japan, China, Thailand, European Union, Mexico, Brazil, 2003, discovered a coal bed in the Red River Delta. 2010, produce 10 mil. tons coal/year, account for 25% total electricity production.

9 Oil Proven Oil Reserves: 600 mil. barrels In 2004: the third-largest oil producer in Asia Crude oil production: > 400,000 bbl/d Net oil exports: 193,000 bbl/d Main oil fields: Bach Ho, Rang Dong, Dai Hung,.. Import petroleum products due to lack of Refinery Future plan: some Oil Refinery will be commissioned 2007, Dung Quat (Quang Ngai):140,000 bbl/d 2010, Nghi Son (Thanh Hoa): 150,000 bbl/d 2006/10/ , Vung Ro (Phu Yen)

10 Gas Proven Reserves: 0.2 trillion m 3 Expect to harness: 0,28 trillion m 3 Natural gas production and consumption are rising. 2002, agreement with KNOC to pump and supply 130 Mmcf/d natural gas. Resource field: Nam Con Son Basin. Export liquefied petroleum gas (LPG).

11 Renewable Energy Resources Geothermal resources: MW Biomass energy: Potential amount: 400 MW Main sources: rice husks, wood, animal dung, agricultural residues, Productivity: 50 mil. tons/year Only 30-40% used for electrical generation Uranium deposits: 300,000 mil. tons of U306

12 Wind power Map of wind power distribution Fair level in East Asia weak level in the world Mainly in island and coastal areas Expected capacity: 400 MW (2020) Exploited to generate electricity in Bach Long Vi and Phu Quoc islands with capacity of 850 KWh

13 Solar Energy High potential, especially in Center & South of Vietnam Solar radiation: Winter: KWh/m 2 /day Summer: KWh/m 2 /day Average sunny hour: hrs/year Meet the off-grid needs in remote areas Installed Photovoltaic systems in some southern provinces

14 Electricity Generation Electricity production: Average growth rate from : 13.7%/year 1995: 15.6 billion kwh 2002: 35 billion kwh, 60%: from hydropower plants Household coverage 1996-now: increase 50% -87% Rural population receives low quality service: low voltage and poor reliability 2005, purchased electricity from China: 100 million kwh 2006/10/10

15 Electricity Generation Sources 2002 Source GWh/yr % Hydro Oil 18,198 4, % 12% 14% Coal 4, % Gas 8, Total 35, Hydro Coal Oil Gas

16 Electricity Consumption by Sector 25,000 Sector GWh/yr 20,000 Industry 21,681 Residential 14,561 Commercial/ 2020 public service Agriculture 506 Transport ,000 10,000 5,000 0 Indus Resident Services Agri Transpt

17 Hydropower 2003: provide 50% national total capacity 60 MW from mini-hydro systems (100 Kw-7.5 MW) 5 new hydropower plant: Son La (intended to generate 2400 MW by 2012) Ban Ve ( due in 2008) Dong Nai 3 & Dong Nai 4 (combined capacity: 500 MW) EVN s Se San 4 ( capacity: 330 MW, generate 1,4 bi.kwh/year) Mini-hydro systems: suit for isolated, remote, poor areas, cheap but low quality and safety

18 Electricity development plan Growing demand for electricity: Until 2010, growth rate: 15-20%/year 2008, plan to purchase power from Laos Target by 2010: Construct/expanse 32 power stations (7500MW) Electricity household coverage: 90% Commission 16 hydropower plants Increase capacity of Uong Bi coal-fired plant to 400 MW Construct 8 new coal-fired power plant (2900 MW) Upgrade transmission lines surrounding Ha Noi

19 Electricity development plan Estimated load demand: growth rate 11.9% Year Bil. kwh

20 Electricity development plan Investment: Power generation: EVN s project:s: 8,425 MW Others : 1,949 MW Transmission lines: 9,300 miles new high voltage 173,600 miles new medium and low voltage

21 Policies, Projects and Plans Government Policy: Renewable Action Plan (REAP-in 1999). Barriers to implementing Renewable Energy Project: Including Legislative, Technical, financial and infrastructural. Projects, Plans and Opportunities Demonstration Project (NEDO-Japan). The international Finance Corporation (IFC) and the Danish Consultant Trust Fund. Wind Resource Mapping (Netherlands).

22 Policies, Projects and Plans Small-Hydro Investment (New Zealand) World Bank Programs: total investment $1 billion VN-GEF-Rural Energy II (GEF-2004) Promotion of Renewable Energy, Energy Efficiency and Greenhouse Gas Abatement (ADB&NL) Global Village Energy Partnership: Vietnam Integrated Agriculture and Community Development Project Energy Efficient Public Lightning (UNDP) Large-scale hydropower Project

23 SUMMARY Un-renewable energy sources will be exhausted by next several decades To ensure energy security in future, research and cooperation development on energy should be undertaken actively. With condition of Vietnam, renewable energy exploitation is very feasible. Costs for producing electricity is higher Government should pay more attentions and investment to meet the energy targets 2006/10/10

24 Thank you for your attention!