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1 Scopus - Results: AU-ID("Susandi, Armi" ) of /16/2015 8:41 AM Scopus SciVal Register Login Help Search Alerts My list My Scopus AU-ID ( "Susandi, Armi" ) Edit Save Set alert Set feed 4 document results View secondary documents Analyze search results Sort on: Date Cited by Relevance... Search within results... Export Download View citation overview View Cited by More... Show all abstracts Refine Limit to Exclude Year 2013 (1) 2011 (2) 2002 (1) 1 2 Application of online information system for delivering the rice planting time prediction in Indramayu Development of grid-connected PV systems for remote electrification in Indonesia Susandi, A., Tamamadin, M., Siregar, P.M., (...), Farhamsa, D., Surmaini, E. Reinders, A., Veldhuis, H., Susandi, A th Asian Conference on Remote Sensing 2013, ACRS Conference Record of the IEEE Photovoltaic Specialists Conference 0 2 Author Name Susandi, A. (4) Djamal, E. (1) Farhamsa, D. (1) Las, I. (1) Reinders, A. (1) Subject Area Computer Science (1) Energy (1) Engineering (1) Social Sciences (1) Document Type Conference Paper (2) Article (1) Note (1) Source Title Keyword Affiliation Country/Territory Source Type Language 3 4 View at Publisher Comment Susandi, A Regional Development Dialogue Impact of international climate policy on Indonesia Susandi, A., Tol, R.S.J Pacific and Asian Journal of Energy Show abstract Related documents Display 20 results per page Page Limit to Exclude Export refine Top of page About Scopus What is Scopus Content coverage Scopus Blog Scopus API Language 日本語に切り替える切换到简体中文切換到繁體中文 Customer Service Help and Contact Live Chat About Elsevier Terms and Conditions Privacy Policy Copyright 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.scopus is a registered trademark of Elsevier B.V. Cookies are set by this site. To decline them or learn more, visit our Cookies page.

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3 DEVELOPMENT OF GRID-CONNECTED PV SYSTEMS FOR REMOTE ELECTRIFICATION IN INDONESIA Angèle Reinders 12, Hans Veldhuis 1, Armi Susandi 3 1) University of Twente, Faculty of Engineering Technology, Department of Design, Production and Management, P.O. Box 217, 7500 AE Enschede, The Netherlands Phone: +31(0) , a.h.m.e.reinders@utwente.nl and a.j.veldhuis@utwente.nl 2) TU Delft, Faculty of Industrial Design Engineering, Design for Sustainability 3) Institut Teknologi Bandung, Department of Meteorology, Jl. Ganesa no, 10, Bandung, Indonesia Phone: +62(0) , armi@meteo.itb.ac.id ABSTRACT In our paper we will compare grid-connected PV systems with fossil fuel based electricity within electricity infrastructures at Indonesian islands. Our approach is based on geographic mapping of the irradiance potential (kwh/m 2 /year), electrification rates on islands (%), performance prediction of grid-connected PV systems (kwh/kw p ) and the CO 2 reduction potential (g/kwh) of grid-connected PV systems in the Indonesian archipelago in the year So far, extensive studies on gridconnected PV systems for island electrification in Indonesia are lacking, and as such the results will be relevant for the realization of a pilot grid-connected photovoltaic system of 35kWp in Jayapura, situated in the Indonesian province of Papua, since in this province the electrical energy demand is growing. In this study we presented a method to determine the potential of grid connected PV in Indonesia. The total potential is about 94 TWh/year and the required installed capacity is around 80 GW p, based on PV modules with an efficiency of 15%. By using the full potential of grid connected PV 3.0 Mt CO 2 emissions can be saved. For the future, improving of the knowledge and experience in developing comprehensive policies toward promoting renewable energy is needed, especially for grid-connected PV systems in Indonesia. The reason to focus on grid-connected PV systems in Indonesia is found in the fact that Indonesia s power production is still heavily relying on coal (33% in 2007) and on diesel (41% in 2007), especially in remote locations. All levels of government are looking for alternatives, especially since Indonesia comprises over 17,000 islands which is a challenge for the distribution of fuels and energy. Apart from this, the planned increase in capacity is far too slow to tackle Indonesia s low electrification rate and its dependence on fossil fuels. As a result, at present only 64% of Indonesian households have access to electricity. This is approximately 150 million people of the total population of Indonesia which was around 235 million in 2010 [2]. Keywords: Grid-connected PV systems, emerging markets, CO 2 emissions INTRODUCTION The potential of renewable energy sources are quite abundant in Indonesia. Unfortunately, the development of those renewable energy sources are not growing as expected. The government has set itself the target to achieve the optimum energy mix in the year 2025 (Presidential Decree No. 5/2006). Then, the application of photovoltaic systems should be about MW p in the year The installed capacity in 2008 was around 20 MW p [1]. It means, at least about 45 MW p per year should be installed. Figure 1 Electrification ratio of households in Indonesia in 2007 [3] 1 With roughly 137 million people (59%) living in Java, it is the world's most populous island and one of the most densely populated regions in the world. In contrast, the population in Papua is around 3.6 million, which is less than 2% of the total population of Indonesia. The electrification ratio in Java is 71% on average, for Papua 1 The value for the province of Central Java is not available and is assumed to be the average of West and East Java: 68% /11/$ IEEE

4 this is 32%. In Figure 1 the electrification ratios of households in Indonesia per province is shown. Access to electricity can locally be improved by PV solar systems, however at present the currently installed capacity of PV systems in Indonesia are mostly solar home systems and utility-scale solar PV plants [3]. Moreover, though in Indonesia the attractiveness of PV and the investment climate for PV business are both favorable [4], grid-connected PV systems haven t yet penetrated the Indonesian electricity grids. As such there is a lot of room for improvements. It is for this reason that recently a research project was initiated between the Institut Teknologi Bandung (ITB) in Bandung, Indonesia, and University of Twente in Enschede, the Netherlands, which will include (1) the realization of a 35kWp grid-connected photovoltaic system on a building in Jayapura, situated in the Indonesian province of Papua, (2) the development of a knowledge center on solar energy at ITB in Bandung and (3) research on monitoring of remote grid-connected PV systems [5]. The project is funded by the Indonesia Facility of the Dutch Ministry of Foreign Affairs and runs from January 2011 till December Besides ITB and UT the project comprises several other partners among which the PV system company SolInvest, World Wildlife Fund Indonesia and Universitas Cenderawasih in Jayapura. In this paper we report on phase one of the project. We will compare grid-connected PV systems with fossil fuel based electricity within electricity infrastructures at Indonesian islands. Our approach is based on geographic mapping of the irradiance potential (kwh/m 2 /year), electrification rates on islands (%), performance prediction of grid-connected PV systems (kwh/kw p ) and the CO 2 reduction potential (g/kwh) of grid-connected PV systems in the Indonesian archipelago in the year The paper is structured as follows, first the methodology will be presented, followed by a section about irradiation in Indonesia. Subsequently formulas will be presented that we use to determine the technical production potential of grid connected PV per province and the whole nation. The paper ends with the discussion and conclusions. METHODOLOGY This study is based on literature surveys, discussions with experts and field research. Calculations will be executed regarding the use of solar energy in Indonesia. The energy potentials will be examined at a province level. For more detailed calculations, the study focuses on Papua and West Java. The technical solar energy potential depends highly on the location of PV installations. There are large differences between rural and urban areas in population density, electricity demand, infrastructures and costs. Therefore, our study includes these differences in the methodology. Namely to determine the technical production potential of grid connected PV in Indonesia assumptions have to be made regarding the area suitable for the use of it. This area is limited to areas where an electricity grid is already available. We assume that the electrification ratio for households can be translated directly to the electrification ratio of the population. The population connected to the grid is limited by the electrification ratio:,, (1) Where N max,grid,p is the maximum population connected to the grid in the province, N p is the population of the province and ER p is the electrification ratio of the province. Next, we suppose that urban areas are connected to the grid firstly, followed by rural areas. The size of these urban areas is calculated by multiplying the population of a province with its urbanization ratio and divided by an average population density for urban areas in Indonesia:, (2) Where N urb,p is the population of urban areas in the province and UR p is the urbanization ratio of the province.,,,,,,, (3),,,,,, Where N urb,grid,p is the grid connected population in urban areas of the province.,,,, (4) Where A urb,grid,p is the area in km 2 of the urban areas in the province where the population is connected to the electricity grid, is the average population density of urban areas in Indonesia in persons/km 2.,,,,,,, (5) 0,,,, Where N rur,grid,p is the population in rural areas connected to the grid.,,,, (6) Where A rur,grid,p is the area in km 2 of the rural areas in the province where the population in connected to the electricity grid and is the average population density of rural areas in Indonesia. The technical production potential of grid connected PV systems for each province of Indonesia is calculated using the following formula:,, ,, (7).,, Where E PV,grid,p is the annual electricity production of grid connected PV of the province in kwh/year, η is the efficiency of the PV modules, PR is the performance ratio, G p is the average irradiance in kwh/m 2 /d of the province, LA urb and LA rur are the land availability factors for grid connected PV in urban and rural areas, respectively. IRRADIATION IN INDONESIA As a tropical nation, Indonesia has a large solar energy potential. Based on solar irradiance data collected from 18 locations across Indonesia, Indonesia can be classified into 2 different areas: Western part of Indonesia with an average irradiation of 4.5 kwh/m 2 per day and a monthly deviation of 10%, and the Eastern part of Indonesia with an average irradiation of 5.1 kwh/m 2 per day and a /11/$ IEEE

5 monthly deviation of 9% [6]. Figure 2 show the annual average solar irradiation for the whole archipelago in July. PERFORMANCE RATIO During the conversion process of solar energy into electricity by the use of photovoltaic (PV) technology energy losses arise (e.g. thermal losses and conduction losses). The performance ratio can be used to evaluate the efficiency of a PV plant. The performance ratio (PR) can be calculated using the following formula:, (8) Figure 2 Annual average solar radiation from July 1983 June 2005 (kwh/m 2 /day) for Indonesia [16] A number of the total solar resource potential expressed in Watts cannot be found in literature. We estimate that with a total land area of 1,891,000 km 2, the total irradiation in Indonesia is roughly 9,100 TWh/day, based on an average radiation of 4.8 kwh/m 2 /day. Locally irradiation can vary in a modest extent, but is stable through the year with only minor seasonal variations. Figure 3 shows monthly irradiation for Bandung and Jayapura at resp. West-Java and Papua. Where monthly irradiation in Jayapura stays close to the average value of 5.0 kwh/m2/day in Bandung irradiation becomes lower from November till March due to the monsoon season Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Bandung Bandung min Bandung max Jayapura Jayapura min Jayapura max Figure 3 Monthly averaged daily solar radiation (kwh/m 2 /day) [16] Summarizing the Indonesian climate seems suitable for continuous and reliable electricity production by PV systems. Therefore we will compare grid-connected PV systems with fossil fuel based electricity within infrastructures at Indonesian islands. The nominal power output depends on the incident solar radiation and the efficiency of the PV modules applied. The module efficiency (η) of multi-crystalline silicon is assumed to be 15%. The PR of grid connected PV in Indonesia is estimated to be 75% which is slightly lower than European systems because high ambient temperatures and high irradiance in this tropical climate will more prominently induce a temperature effect on the performance of crystalline silicon PV modules. In this study these two values are used for the various calculations. CO 2 emissions and CO 2 reduction potential In contrast to fossil fuels, the majority of the GHG (greenhouse gas) emissions of PV occur during the production of the module. The estimation of the GHG depends on various factors like: efficiency of the module, lifetime, irradiation conditions, type of semiconductor material, quantity and grade of semiconductor material, balance of plant, installation type (integrated and nonintegrated systems). Depending on these factors a PV plant emits g CO 2 -eq/kwh according to Weisser [7]. A study of Alsema et al. reports GHG emissions of 32 g CO 2-eq/kWh for grid-connected multi-crystalline silicon modules in southern Europe [8]. The average emission of the electricity production in the region of Papua is 838 g CO 2 -eq/kwh [9]. For Indonesia in general it is around 715 g CO 2-eq/kWh [10]. A diesel generator used in remote areas has an emission of 1,100 g CO 2 -eq/kwh [11]. In Table 2 these values are summarized. Energy source CO 2 emissions (g CO 2-eq/kWh) PV standalone [7] PV grid connected 32 [8] Electricity grid Indonesia 715 [10] Electricity grid Papua 838 [9] Diesel generator 1,100 [11] Table 2 CO 2 emissions for various electrical energy sources Taking the CO 2 emissions of PV systems and fossil-fuel based electricity in account, the CO 2 reduction potential of the emissions for grid-connected PV will be 806 g CO 2 - eq/kwh for Jayapura and 683 g CO 2-eq/kWh for Bandung /11/$ IEEE

6 RESULTS REGARDING POTENTIAL OF GRID CONNECTED PV IN INDONESIA PER PROVINCE In Table 3 the area (A) [12], population (N) [2], urbanization (UR) [13] ratio and the average daily irradiance (G) [14] per province are shown. This data is used as input for the calculations. Province A (km 2 ) (x1000) N (x mln) UR (%) G (kwh/ m 2 /d) Aceh 51,9 4,5 34% 5,1 Bali 5,6 3,9 65% 5,3 Bangka-Belitung 16,2 1,2 52% 4,5 Banten 8,7 10,6 67% 4,8 Bengkulu 19,8 1,7 41% 4,8 Gorontalo 12,2 1,0 37% 5,1 Papua 365,5 3,6 24% 5,0 DKI Jakarta 0,7 9,6 100% 4,8 Jambi 53,4 3,1 37% 4,6 West Java 34,6 43,1 66% 4,8 Central Java 32,5 32,4 56% 5,5 Oost Java 47,9 37,5 57% 4,9 West Kalimantan 146,8 4,4 31% 5,0 South Kalimantan 43,5 3,6 47% 4,8 Central Kalimantan 153,6 2,2 41% 4,8 East Kalimantan 230,3 3,6 66% 4,8 Lampung 35,4 7,6 33% 4,9 Maluku 47,0 1,5 27% 5,8 North Maluku 30,9 1,0 31% 6,0 West Nusa Tenggara 20,2 4,5 49% 5,6 East Nusa Tenggara 47,4 4,7 21% 6,2 Riau 94,6 5,5 57% 4,4 South Sulawesi 62,4 8,0 35% 5,4 Central Sulawesi 63,7 2,6 23% 5,0 South East Sulawesi 38,1 2,2 26% 4,9 North Sulawesi 15,3 2,3 50% 5,9 West Sumatera 42,9 4,8 40% 4,9 South Sumatera 93,1 7,5 43% 4,6 North Sumatera 73,6 13,0 50% 4,5 Yogyakarta 3,2 3,5 70% 4,8 Table 3 Data per province used in this study In Table 4 the assumptions for the required parameters are shown. Parameter Value Unit 8000 [15] Persons/km [16] Persons/km 2 LA urb 5 % LA rur 15 % Table 4 Assumptions for some parameters for the calculation of the potential of grid connected PV. The results of the calculations are shown in Figure 4. It shows a map of Indonesia indicating the potential of grid connected PV per province in TWh/year, taking the electricity demand not into account. The total potential of grid connected PV in Indonesia is 1,100 TWh/year. This is 0.03% of the total solar resource potential. Figure 4 Potential grid connected PV (TWh/year) per province In most provinces the potential of grid connected PV is larger than the electricity demand, therefore the actual potential of grid connected PV is less. The electricity demand per province is calculated based on the electricity sold by PLN over the year 2005 [17]. The electrical energy sold per capita per province is multiplied with the total population of the province, which equals the total electricity supply to the population with access to electricity. Taking the electricity demand per province as limit, then the potential of grid connected PV would be 94 TWh/year, assumed that the total electricity demand can be provided by PV systems. This corresponds to 0.003% of the total solar resource potential of Indonesia and more than 4 times the current global PV power generation [4]. The values per province are shown in Figure 5. The required installed capacity to obtain this amount of electricity is around 80 GW p, based on 15 % efficiency PV modules. This is about 40,000 times the current installed capacity in Indonesia and roughly 4 times the installed capacity worldwide [1,4]. Based on the average CO 2 emissions of 715 g CO 2 - eq/kwh for Indonesia, 3.0 Mt CO 2 emissions can be saved by using the full potential of grid connected PV /11/$ IEEE

7 the total amount of electricity produced can be generated by grid connected PV systems overestimates the potential. It depends on daytime electricity consumption, actual irradiance, battery usage, et cetera. Nevertheless, Indonesia has a huge potential for grid connected PV. REFERENCES Figure 5 Potential grid connected PV limited by electricity demand (TWh/year) In Figure 6 the percentage of the potential grid connected PV that can be used, based on the electricity demand, is shown. As can be seen, the full potential can be used in the provinces DKI Jakarta and West Java. Besides, the provinces Riau and West Nusa Tenggara can use more than 70% of the potential. On average 18% of the potential can be used. [1] Soedjono Respati, R.M., Experience of using PV in Indonesia, RENDEV, Rendevconference%20Experience%20of%20Using%20R E%20%28IRES%29.pdf, last access date: May 26, [2] Badan Pusat Statistik Republik Indonesia, =1&id_subyek=12&notab=1, last access date: 02 June [3] Institute for Global Environmental Strategies, Is Indonesia in a Good Position to Achieve Sustainable Low Carbon Development?, Report, [4] Unlocking the sunbelt potential of photovoltaics, Report - Second edition, EPIA, [5] Joint development of a knowledge centre on solar energy, INDF-EVD Project proposal, University of Twente and Institut Teknologi Bandung, 2010 [6] Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources Figure 6 Percentage of usable potential grid connected PV DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS In this study we presented a method to determine the potential of grid connected PV in Indonesia. The total potential is about 94 TWh/year and the required installed capacity is around 80 GW p, based on PV modules with an efficiency of 15%. By using the full potential of grid connected PV 3.0 Mt CO 2 emissions can be saved. The calculated potential of grid connected PV is limited by the electricity demand. This demand is based on the electrical energy supplied by PLN per province in The current electricity demand will be larger, this will influence the calculated total potential. If an average annual growth rate of 6% of the electricity demand is assumed, then the total potential of grid connected PV will be 26% more in The assumptions made regarding the land availability in urban areas are quite low, our study assumes 5% compared to 15% for urban areas in European cities. Therefore the actual potential of grid connected PV could even be a bit more. At the other hand, the assumption that [7] Weisser D., A guide to life-cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from electric supply technologies, Energy 32, [8] Alsema E.A., Wild-Scholten M.J. and Fthenakis V.M., Environmental impacts of pv electricity generation - a critical comparison of energy supply options, 21st European Photovoltaic Solar Energy Conference, [9] Widiyanto A. et al., Environmental Impacts Evaluation of Electricity Grid Mix Systems in Four Selected Countries Using A Life Cycle Assessment Point of View, Third International Symposium on Environmentally Conscious Design and Inverse Manufacturing, [10] Trends in global energy efficiency 2011, y/1a65dd16a3c538acc /$file/indonesia.p df, last access date: May 26, [11] Alsema E.A., Energy requirements and CO2 mitigation potential of PV systems, Report, [12] Statoids, Provinces of Indonesia, last access date: 02 June, /11/$ IEEE

8 [13] Proyeksi Penduduk , ask=view&id=923&itemid=939&lang=en, last access date: 02 June, [14] NASA, last access date: May 12, [15] Demographia World Urban Areas: 7th Annual Edition, Report, [16] last access date: 02 June [17] Pengkajian Energi Universitas Indonesia, Indonesia Energy Outlook & Statistics 2006, Report, /11/$ IEEE