Climate Change, the Paris Accord and Refrigeration Michael McCann Expert Group, Energyallstars.com

Transcription

1 Climate Change, the Paris Accord and Refrigeration Michael McCann Expert Group, Energyallstars.com

2 2017 to 2030 Spells Growth and Pressure for Pursuit of Excellence Value and volumes of Australian perishable food production, consumption and export on a rocket total farm production >$58 billion in 2016 all time high. New investment into agriculture and horticulture at all time highs, most aimed at export markets. Export Growth. New retail chains expanding in Australia building new stores while the incumbents go from strength to strength in an economy with 1.5% annual population growth and following 25 years of continuous economic expansion and looking at >4% GDP growth in the coming 12 months. Australia has committed under the Paris Accord to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 28% below 2005 levels by 2030.

3 Trajectory of Australian emissions projected by DOE

4 Reaching Australia s commitment to the Paris Accord Mt CO2-e BAU Projection = 592 Mt CO2-e Paris Accord 28% from 2005 = 441 Mt CO2-e

5 Where is it all coming from? Emissions (Mt CO2-e) Electricity ? Direct Combustion ? Transport ? Fugitive ? Agriculture ? Industrial Processes ? Waste ? LULUCF ? To Achieve 2030 Target All RAC equipment responsible for minimum of 22% of Electricity related emissions (~42Mt CO2-e) and 36% of Industrial Processes (~13 Mt CO2-e DOE numbers) or around 55Mt CO2-e total at least 10% of all national emissions. Reduction from 2017 to 2030 required is ~20%

6 Industrial Processes Emissions Projections DoEE National Inventory Team Dec Projections Mt CO2-e Mt CO2-e

7 The Bank of working gas Mt CO2-e Peak Bank! In terms of the total GWP of the working bank of gas (including rump of HCFCs) - About Now!

8 Refrigerant bank Thousands The Bank of working gas Metric Tonnes 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 GWP <10 GWP <1000 GWP <2150 HFC-Mix HFC-32 HFC-407C HFC-410A HFC-404A HFC-134a HCFC-Mix HCFC-22 0 While energy services delivered continue to increase strongly and the stock of equipment and bank requiring maintenance grows

9 Expert Group Projections for DoEE Ozone and SGG Management Team HFC refrigerant demand by species in Mt CO 2 e Mt CO2-e 5.8 lower than NIT Mt CO2-e 11.9 lower than NIT GWP <10 GWP <1000 GWP <2150 HFC-Mix HFC-32 HFC-407C HFC-410A HFC-404A HFC-134a Expert Group April 2016 HFC refrigerant demand from 2003 to 2030 by gas species Mt CO2e. Even after including an additional 1.5 Mt CO2-e EOL emissions pa from all equipment classes the HVAC&R industry rapid shift to lower GWP gases still looks like delivering >11Mt CO2e abatement pa by 2030 (~10% of total abatement required from 2017 starting point)

10 Electricity Production and Emissions Projections 2009 = 212Mt CO2-e possibly all time high? Unforeseen and rapid decarbonization of electricity supplies are underway combined with softening electricity demand as higher efficiency equipment and appliances become commonplace so a lower outcome in this segment is highly probable Potential for as much as 50Mt CO2-e gain in lower carbon electricity generation and continuous improvement in energy efficiency of distribution and end use equipment and appliances

11 The Bad News December 2015 projections above by the National Centre for Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility compared to Summer below Adelaide - Record Days above >40 0 C Days above 35 0 C Brisbane - Hottest Summer on Record Canberra 18 - Hottest Summer on Record Daytime Temps Melbourne Perth - 8 days >40 0 C new record Sydney nights >20 0 C Hottest Summer on Record REQUIREMENT FOR HIGHLY EFFICIENCT HVAC&R WILL GROW STRONGLY

12 Refrigeration 2030 Efficiency Task Category - Stationary GWh/yr Energy spend ($ Million) 28% Refrig. cabinets 2,172.2 $391.0 $ Refrig. beverage vending machines $112.6 $31.52 Ice makers $73.6 $20.60 Walk-in coolrooms: small 1,146.9 $206.4 $57.80 Walk-in coolrooms: medium $112.4 $31.47 Walk-in coolrooms: large 1,175.7 $211.6 $59.25 Beverage cooling (post mix) $35.3 $9.89 Beverage cooling (beer) $44.8 $12.54 Water dispensers 17.1 $3.1 $0.86 Packaged liquid chillers 3,122.8 $562.1 $ Milk vat refrig $52.1 $14.59 Portable refrigerators 23.4 $4.2 $1.18 Supermarket refrig: small $150.0 $42.01 Supermarket refrig: medium 1,193.1 $214.7 $60.13 Supermarket refrig: large $96.0 $26.87 Hospital kitchens 47.6 $8.6 $2.40 Cold storage and distribution $119.9 $33.57 Process chilling 1,332.2 $239.8 $67.15 TOTAL GWh and $$ Million 14,657 $2,638 28% 4,104 $ Million Mt CO2-e Contribution to 2030 Abatement Target 3.43%

13 Refrigeration Efficiency Opportunities Installation Type Number of each Type GWh/yr Energy Saving Energy spend ($ Million) Energy Cost Saving Supermarket refrigeration: small 2, $150.0 $42.01 Supermarket refrigeration: medium 985 1, $214.7 $60.13 Supermarket refrigeration: large $96.0 $26.87 Hospitals and large kitchens $8.6 $2.40 Total Facilities* 3,486 2, $469.3 $ *Note: 2013 Facility count

14 Refrigeration Efficiency Opportunities Coolrooms Units GWh/yr Energy Saving Energy spend ($ Million) Energy Cost Saving Walk-in coolrooms: small 65,700 1, $206.4 $57.80 Walk-in coolrooms: medium 20, $112.4 $31.47 Walk-in coolrooms: large 12,200 1, $211.6 $59.25 Total Coolrooms* 98,100 2, $530.5 $ *Note: 2013 Facility count

15 Refrigeration Efficiency Opportunities Unitary and Self Contained Equipment Units GWh/yr Energy Saving Energy spend ($ Million) Energy Cost Saving Refrigeration cabinets 447,000 2, $391.0 $ Packaged liquid chillers 10,000 3, $562.1 $ Milk vat refrigeration 6, $52.1 $14.59 Beverage vending machines 134, $112.6 $31.52 Ice makers 66, $73.6 $20.60 Beverage cooling (post mix) 37, $35.3 $9.89 Beverage cooling (beer) 12, $44.8 $12.54 Water dispensers (incl. bottle) 235, $3.1 $0.86 Total 948,000 7, ,982.6 $1,274.5 $356.87

16 Expert Group Position The refrigeration industry has a central role to play in reducing energy related greenhouse emissions and a singular responsibility for reducing direct emissions of SGGs. Australia has to improve the preparedness, resilience and security of agriculture and of this national piece of infrastructure - the cold-foodchain - while delivering increased agricultural output and exports. Refrigeration should be understood by the public and politicians as the infrastructure of agriculture, an essential service central to the health and well being of the Australian community and with a vital role to play in the economic life of the nation. Significant cold food chain assets should be seeking, as far as possible, energy independence from transmission and distribution grids, at the very least achieve a viable back up capacity equal to several days full operation independent from the grid. The 21 st century opportunity for the refrigeration industry is to become an effective part of the energy industry, capturing ongoing energy cost savings, and managing peak demand, while achieving significant increases in handling increasingly valuable agricultural products.

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18 T.C.O. the critical metric

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