The Roots and Future of Water Conflicts in the Middle East

Transcription

1 The Roots and Future of Water Conflicts in the Middle East Environmental & Water Resources Engineering Program + Interfaculty Graduate Environmental Science Program in collaboration with The Issam Fares Institute for Public Policy and International Affairs 16 December 2009 Mark Zeitoun Water Security Research Centre School of Intern l Development University of East Anglia m.zeitoun@uea.ac.uk

2 Present: Law of the jungle, where basin hegemons rule (equitable sharing not on the agenda) Future: Status quo or All worse off [drivers] or All better off [equitability]

3 Outcomes of Water Conflicts

4 What determines outcomes of water conflicts? Upstream Position? Basin Share? Water Ethics? International Norms? Power?

5 Upstream Position Turkey Syria Iraq Iran But But Lebanon Lebanon on on al al Kbir Kbir + + el el Asi? Asi?

6 Basin Share But Jordan on Jordan River? But Jordan on Jordan River?

7 Basin Water Share Ethics / Peacebuilding Water Ethics / Peacebuilding Lebanon Jordan River Basin Israel Syria But But extreme extreme asymmetry asymmetry and and water water conflict conflict continues continues West Bank Jordan Friends of the Earth Middle East

8 International Water Norms Human Right to Water Amnesty International, Human Rights Watch International Water Law: 1997 UN Watercourses Convention gives the rules of customary international law: no significant harm ; prior notification Equitable and Reasonable utilization : geographical, hydrological Lebanon, Syria, Jordan and Palestine all signatories social and economic needs populations dependent on the watercourse But the long arm of the law is short existing and potential use availability of alternatives

9 Power Turkey Syria power Iran Iraq

10 POWER and HEGEMONY

11 Conceptualising Power The most potent weapon in the hands of the oppressor is the mind of the oppressed Stephen Biko

12 Confronting Power Asymmetry A. Influence the powerful Positive-sum outcomes Benefit-sharing Encourage leadership B. Level the playing field, and the players International Water Law Fair water-sharing principles Effective regulation Capacity building

13 THE PALESTINIAN-ISRAELI WATER CONFLICT - ROOTS

14 present

15

16 1964

17 1995

18 SUMMARY OF ALLOCATION source Palestine Israel Jordan River Wadi al Fara 5 95 Wadi Gaza 2 98 Eastern Aquif N.Eastern Aquif Western Aquif Coastal Aquif OVERALL 10% 90%

19 Asymmetry Manifested line from Israel supplying Karmel settlement industrial livestock activities 2 line from Yatta supplying four Palestinian villages (Umm al Khiyar, Arab as Saray a, Arab al Ka abneh Najdada, Birket Khamsin al Karm)

20 Asymmetry Manifested - 2 Power Power and and Hegemony Hegemony used used to to create create and and maintain maintain inequitable inequitable outcome outcome

21 How power was used 1967 Military Conquest 3 military orders Occupation dual development of West Bank: min. for Palestinians, max. for settlers 1967 onwards superior pumping capacity 2001 onwards Damages to Water Infrastructure Hard Power 1995 Oslo II Agreement The Joint Water Committee Bargaining Power (+ consent) 1995 Oslo II Agreement Ideational Power Desalination for the West Bank? (+ consent)

22 THE JORDAN RIVER WATER CONFLICT

23 Jordan River water conflict Lebanon Jordan River Basin Israel Syria Jordan West Bank

24 Jordan River water conflict Natural Contributions Current Inequitable Distribution

25 Jordan River water conflict Equal per capita: towards legal shares.

26 THE PALESTINIAN-ISRAELI WATER CONFLICT - FUTURE?

27 Negotiations maintaining inequity Madrid (1991) Oslo Process (1993 +) Road Map (2002) Annapolis (2008) Ec c Peace (current)

28 Palestine Palestine Israeli position (Annapolis 2008) Perpetuate the current inequitable allocation and provide funding for new water to enhance Palestine s share New New Israel Israel Overall Water Allocation

29 Palestine Palestine Palestinian solution - I (Annapolis 2008) I. Reallocate the existing water resources, generating equitable allocations, and ending the water conflict Israel Israel Overall Water Allocation

30 Palestine Palestine II. Develop and allocate the new water New New Israel Overall Water Allocation Israel Palestinian solution II (Annapolis 2008) Positive-sum Positive-sum outcome : outcome : Desalination Desalination Wastewater Wastewater Re-use Re-use International International Water Water Law Law Development Development of of alternatives alternatives and and outside outside the the box box thinking thinking..

31 THE JORDAN RIVER WATER CONFLICT - FUTURE?

32 Towards Jordan River conflict resolution Options for Equitable distribution of Jordan River system More More work work to to be be done. done. 4-Riparian 4-Riparian Jordan Jordan River River Initiative Initiative (IFI (IFI AUB) AUB) ESCWA ESCWA Friends Friends of of Abd Abd el el Al Al + + all all of of us us Phillips, D. et. al.

33 Steps towards equitable sharing 1. Understand the power that prevails, Counter it: Development of alternative solutions Level the players Level the playing field 2. For Lebanon: Leverage upstream position Understand hydrology / hydrogeology Transboundary waters into National Water Strategy Red Sea Dead Sea Canal Continue to push for International Water Law

34 The Future (last slide) Law of the Jungle or All worse off or All better off?

35 More Information Thank-you.