Perspectives on the role and value of CCU in climate change mitigation

Transcription

1 Perspectives on the role and value of CCU in climate change mitigation Niall Mac Dowell Imperial College

2 Key questions on CO 2 capture and utilisation 1.What is it? 2.Why do we want it? 3.Will it mitigate climate change? 4.Is it likely to be cost effective? 5.Will it deliver CCS?

3 CCU archetypes: catch and release Energy flow Mass flow >95% CO 2 CH 3 OH CH 3 OH 400 ppm CO2 C C S H 2 O 2 Fossil carbon; coal, oil, gas..

4 CCU archetypes: two bites of the cherry Energy flow Mass flow >95% CO 2 CH 3 OH CH 3 OH C C S Fossil carbon; coal, oil, gas.. O 2 H 2 DAC Stored CO ppm CO2

5 CCU archetypes: circular economy Energy flow Mass flow CH 3 OH CH 3 OH >95% CO 2 O 2 H 2 DAC 400 ppm CO2 H 2 O

6 Why CCU? There are many reasons to like CCU: 1. C 1 chemistry 2. Applied catalysis 3. Energy storage 4. Producing and using renewable energy 5. More environmentally benign chemical processes 6. Combatting climate change Many reasons to like CCU, climate change mitigation is not it

7 Gt CO2 /yr Quantifying the mitigation challenge BP Data High (2.8%/yr) Med (2.38%/yr) Low (1.96%/yr) 6DS (1.4%) 2DS Year Last 15 years Average since 1965 Last 5 years 6DS 2DS BP Statistical review, 2014, IEA ETP 2012 and 2014

8 Gt CO2 /yr Quantifying the mitigation challenge (MC) BP Data 6DS (1.4%) 2DS MC MC 800 Gt CO2 by 2050 IEA suggests 14 40% by CCS Implies > 120Gt CO2 sequestered by CCS by Equivalent to ~ 3.5 years of total global emissions today 0 1% of MC 8 10 Gt CO2 by Year BP Statistical review, 2014, IEA ETP 2012 and 2014

9 What could CO 2 Conversion contribute?

10 CO 2 balance of CO 2 -EOR Conventional EOR 1 Prod ~ 3.33bbl oil em ~ 1.43t CO2 Net 0.43t CO2 inj 1 t CO2 inj 1 t CO2 Advanced EOR 1 Prod ~ 1.67bbl oil em ~ 0.72t CO2 Net -0.28t CO2 inj 1 t CO2 Max Storage EOR 1 Prod ~ 1.1bbl oil em ~ 0.48t CO2 Net -0.52t CO2 Must consider what gets displaced, e.g., unconventional oil with a CO 2 intensity of % of conventional oil 3 1: IEA, Storing CO 2 through Enhanced Oil Recovery, 2015, 2: 3: Mui, et al., GHG Emission Factors for High Carbon Intensity Crude Oils, NRDC, 2010

11 What could CO 2 -EOR contribute? CO 2 Oil Upper Lower CO 2 EOR Oil Miscible Ratio bound bound (tonnes/bbl CO 2 Recovery Basin ) CO 2 Stored Stored Region Name (MMBO) Count (Gt) (Gt) Asia Pacific 18, Central and South America 31, Europe 16, Former Soviet Union 78, Middle East and North Africa 230, North America/Non-U.S. 18, United States 60, South Asia - 0 N/A - Sub-Saharan Africa and Antarctica 14, Total 468, IEA Greenhouse Gas R&D Programme, CO 2 Storage in Depleted Oilfields: Global Application Criteria for Carbon Dioxide Enhanced Oil Recovery, Report IEA/CON/08/155

12 How well matched are the sources and sinks? Mac Dowell, et al., Nature Climate Change, 2017

13 How big might CO 2 -EOR grow?

14 Nothing in life is free Low carbon energy Intermittent renewable energy (poor capacity factor/credit) Wind $ /MWh 1 Solar $85 242/MWh 1 Geothermal energy (not widely available) Geothermal energy $46.5/MWh 1 Low carbon/renewable H 2 production CAPEX ~ $1,100 1,200/kg H2.day for a 1,000 kg H2 /day unit 2 OPEX ~ $2.67/kg H2 (geothermal), $ /kg H2 (on/offshore wind) 2,3 For comparison, H 2 production via SMR ~ $1-2/kg as a function of CH 4 prices 4 Available CO 2 Cost $60 100/t CO2 for CCS 1, $600 1,000/t CO2 for DAC 5 1: 2: NREL, Current (2009) State-of-the-Art Hydrogen Production Cost Estimate Using Water Electrolysis 3: I E A/H I A T A S K 2 5 : High Temperature Hydrogen Productions Process: Alkaline Electrolysis 4: NRES, Hydrogen Supply: Cost Estimate for Hydrogen Pathways - Scoping Analysis, : House, PNAS, 2011, Ranjan, Energy Procedia, 2011

15 CO 2 and energy balance of CO 2 -MeOH 40.6 GJ el /t CH3OH 3.0 GJ th /t CH3OH 1.82 t H2O /t CH3OH 0.2 t H2 /t CH3OH 0.12 t CO2 /t CH3OH 1.48 t CO2 /t CH3OH 1 t CH3OH Catalytic hydrogenation of CO 2 EROEI = Energy Delivered Energy Required to Deliver that Energy = A fuel or energy must have an EROEI ratio of at least 3:1 to be considered realistically viable as a prominent fuel or energy source 2,3 1: É.S. Van-Dal, C. Bouallou, Journal of Cleaner Production, 2013, 57, : Atlason and Unnthorsson, "Ideal EROI (energy return on investment) deepens the understanding of energy systems". Energy, 2014, 67, : Hall, et al., "EROI of different fuels and the implications for society". Energy Policy, 2013, 64,

16 CO 2 -MeOH as a gasoline substitute? Can also compare MeOH and gasoline (petrol) on an energy basis (potentially controversial) 1 bbl Oil 19 Gal gasoline /bbl oil = kg gasoline /bbl oil 2,469 MJ gasoline /bbl oil kg CO2 /bbl oil kg MeOH /bbl oil * kg CO2 /bbl eq * kg CO2 /bbl eq = kg MeOH /bbl eq (1.38 kg CO2 /kg MeOH ) (125.36) kg CO2 /kg MeOH Using CO 2 -derived MeOH for fuel could result in as much as 114% of the CO 2 that would otherwise be associated with gasoline/petrol for an equivalent transport service All data for energy density, CO 2 intensity, gal/bbl, etc.from: and

17 CCU is fine, with Direct Air Capture if you can afford it Cost of DAC: $500/t CO2 < $ DAC <$1,000/t CO2 House, et al., PNAS, 2011

18 Cost effectiveness of CO 2 to methanol?

19 CO 2 utilisation CO 2 sequestration Process Urea Methanol Inorganic Carbonates Organic Carbonates Polyurethanes Technological Food and Drink Geological Lifetime of storage < 6 months < 6 months Decades Decades Decades Days to years Days to years Centuries sequestration The storage of CO 2 is typically short term especially for largest sinks; methanol and urea. Short term storage will not have significant climate benefit Short term is anything less than ~ 1,000 years Data from Wilcox, Carbon Capture

20 Will CCU deliver CCS? In the US, CO 2 -EOR, maybe CO 2 transport and injection infrastructure is available, and written off The challenge is capturing CO 2 at an attractive cost at current oil prices Tax incentives via CO 2 tax credits likely to remain important In the UK/EU, no There is no CO 2 transport infrastructure this needs to be deployed The lack of infrastructure adds substantial cross-chain risk to any CCS Cross-chain risk is not currently bankable CCS infrastructure requires projects on the order of 10 Mt/yr for economies of scale End-to-end saline aquifer storage projects at > 10 Mt/yr scale are required to derisk CCS This will lead to material cost reductions, kt/yr slip-stream projects will not

21 Will CCU deliver CCS?

22 Some conclusions The IEA 2DS involves mitigating > 800 Gt CO2 to 2050 CO 2 -EOR can deliver 4.5% of this perhaps up to 8 10% CO 2 conversion could deliver % CCU will not deliver CCS kt vs. Mt scale projects CCU bottleneck: the availability of affordable, renewable H 2 Niche opportunities: plastics (DREAM process) waste carbonation (Carbon8), cement curing (Solidia technologies) Beware of unintended consequences, e.g., CO 2 to MeOH emits 114% of the CO 2 emissions associated with gasoline..? CCU likely a distraction from climate change mitigation

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24 If I have surplus electricity, what should I do? Sternberg and Bardow, Energy and Environmental Science, 2015

25 Nothing in life is free Low carbon energy Intermittent renewable energy = poor capacity factor/credit Wind (CF: 36 38%) $ /MWh 1, Solar (CF: 20 25%) $ /MWh 1 Geothermal energy is not widely available Iceland s CRI example is quite unique here Geothermal energy (CF: 92%) $47.8/MWh 1, Low carbon/renewable H 2 production Alkaline water electrolysis is mature, operating on scale, e.g., 3,000 kg/hr in Egypt Not well suited to intermittent operation (this is improving) CAPEX ~ $1,100 1,200/kg H2.day for a 1,000 kg H2 /day unit 2 OPEX ~ $2.67/kg H2 (geothermal), $3.7/kg H2 (onshore wind) $10.69/kg H2 (offshore wind) with current SOTA performance 2,3 For comparison, H 2 production via SMR ~ $1-2/kg as a function of CH 4 prices 4 Available CO 2 Cost $60 100/t CO2 for CCS, $600 1,000/t CO2 for Direct Air Capture 1: 2: NREL, Current (2009) State-of-the-Art Hydrogen Production Cost Estimate Using Water Electrolysis 3: I E A/H I A T A S K 2 5 : High Temperature Hydrogen Productions Process: Alkaline Electrolysis 4: NRES, Hydrogen Supply: Cost Estimate for Hydrogen Pathways - Scoping Analysis, 2002

26 How is the UK system likely to evolve? Mac Dowell and Staffell, Int. J. GHG Con., 2016

27 Surplus renewable electricity? Mac Dowell and Staffell, Int. J. GHG Con., 2016